I am Professor of Human Geography in the Department of Geography at the University of Cambridge. My work explores the idea of climate change using historical, cultural and scientific analyses, seeking to illuminate the numerous ways in which climate change is deployed in public and political discourse. A narrative of my research career and contributions can be found here: http://mikehulme.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Hulme-Research-narrative.pdf.
I believe it is important to understand and describe the varied ideological, political and ethical work that the idea of climate change is currently performing across different social worlds. My research interests are therefore concerned with representations of climate change in history, culture and the media; relationships between climates and societies (including adaptation); with how knowledge of climate change is constructed (especially through the IPCC); and with the interactions between climate change knowledge and policy.
I was previously head of Geography at King's College London and professor in the School of Environmental Sciences at UEA (2002-2013). I was the founding Director (2000-2007) of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, worked in the Climatic Research Unit in the School of Environmental Sciences at UEA (1988-2000), and before this lectured in geography at the University of Salford (1984-1988). Phone: 01223 339819 Address: Department of Geography Downing Place, University of Cambridge Cambridge CB2 3EN UK
Climate Change offers a unique guide to students and general readers alike for making sense of th... more Climate Change offers a unique guide to students and general readers alike for making sense of this profound, far-reaching and contested idea. It presents climate change as an idea with a past, a present and a future. In 10 carefully crafted chapters, Climate Change offers a synoptic and inter-disciplinary understanding of the idea of climate change … from its varied historical and cultural origins, to its construction more recently through scientific endeavour, to the multiple ways in which political, social and cultural movements in today’s world seek to make sense of and act upon it, to the possible futures of climate, however it may be governed and imagined. The central claim of the book is that the full breadth and power of the idea of climate change can only be grasped from a vantage point that embraces the social sciences, humanities and natural sciences. This vantage point is what the book offers, written from the perspective of a geographer whose career work on climate change has drawn across the full range of academic disciplines.
Contemporary Climate Change Debates: A Student Primer, 2019
'Contemporary Debates on Climate Change' (Routledge, December 2019) is an innovative textbook whi... more 'Contemporary Debates on Climate Change' (Routledge, December 2019) is an innovative textbook which tackles some of the difficult questions raised by climate change. For the complex policy challenges surrounding climate adaptation and resilience, structured debates become effective learning devices for students. This book is organized around fifteen important questions, and is split into four parts: What do we need to know? What should we do? On what grounds should we base our actions? Who should be the agents of change? Each debate is addressed by two leading academics who present opposing viewpoints. Through this format the book is not only designed to introduce students of climate change to different arguments prompted by these questions, but also provides a unique opportunity for them to engage in critical thinking and debate amongst themselves. Each chapter concludes with suggestions for further reading and for discussion questions for use in student classes.
My latest book 'Weathered: Cultures of Climate' is published by Sage this week (17 November). I ... more My latest book 'Weathered: Cultures of Climate' is published by Sage this week (17 November). I attach here an abridged version of the final chapter (#12) of the book, titled 'The future of climate'.
Weathered: Cultures of Climate opens up the many ways in which the idea of climate is given meani... more Weathered: Cultures of Climate opens up the many ways in which the idea of climate is given meaning in different human cultures and how it is used; how climates are historicised, known, changed, lived with, blamed, feared, represented, predicted, governed and, at least putatively, redesigned. These actions performed on or with the idea of climate emerge from the diverse cultural interpretations of humans’ sensory experience of the atmosphere’s restless weather. Weathered develops a case for understanding climate as an enduring, yet malleable, idea which humans use to stabilise cultural relationships with their weather. The discursive phenomenon of climate-change should therefore be understood as a ubiquitous trope through which the material, psychological and cultural agency of climate is exercised in today’s world. In this sense the phenomenon of climate-change is not a decisive break from the past. Neither is it a unique outcome of modernity. Climate-change should rather be seen as the latest stage in the cultural evolution of the idea of climate, an idea which enables humans to live with their weather through a widening and changing range of cultural and material artefacts, practices, rituals and symbols.
""Climate change seems to be an insurmountable problem. Political solutions have so far had littl... more ""Climate change seems to be an insurmountable problem. Political solutions have so far had little impact. Some scientists are now advocating the so-called ‘Plan B’, a more direct way of reducing the rate of future warming by reflecting more sunlight back to space, creating a thermostat in the sky.
In this book, Mike Hulme argues against this kind of hubristic techno-fix. Drawing upon a distinguished career studying the science, politics and ethics of climate change, he shows why seeking to control global climate this way is undesirable, ungovernable and unattainable. Rather than seeking to solve climate change this way, Hulme proposes a re-framing of what is problematic about a changing climate. Science and technology should instead serve the more pragmatic goals of increasing societal resilience to weather risks, improving regional air quality and driving forward an energy technology transition. This ‘climate pragmatism’ offers a more plausible, affective and equitable response to climate change than does an illusory global thermostat.
""
There are many ways to understand the phenomenon of climate change . Anthropologists may seek it... more There are many ways to understand the phenomenon of climate change . Anthropologists may seek it by studying different human accounts of weather and agency, political scientists by studying the power relations revealed through climate negotiations between nation states. Earth system scientists are more likely to quantify and simulate the flows of energy, moisture and carbon dioxide through the planetary system. And historians will gain understanding by studying the historiography of climate change: who has written about it, when, why and how. This book offers another way of understanding climate change: by following the written and spoken words of one person who has dedicated several decades to the professional study of the phenomenon. At its simplest this is why Exploring Climate Change Through Science And In Society has been compiled: a collection of essays, articles, interviews and speeches dealing with climate change which I have published or delivered over the last 25 years. It is offered as an idiosyncratic window into the changing idea of climate change. "
Climate change is not ‘a problem’ waiting for ‘a solution’. It is an environmental, cultural and... more Climate change is not ‘a problem’ waiting for ‘a solution’. It is an environmental, cultural and political phenomenon which is re-shaping the way we think about ourselves, about our societies and about humanity’s place on Earth. This book provides a personal, yet scholarly, account of the emergence of this phenomenon and the globally diverse ways in which it is being understood. This novel account uses the different standpoints of science, economics, faith, psychology, communication, sociology, politics and development to help explain why we disagree about climate change.
During the first fifteen years of the twentieth century, Oxford-based Scottish geographer Andrew ... more During the first fifteen years of the twentieth century, Oxford-based Scottish geographer Andrew Herbertson constructed a framework for comprehending and categorising climate and its interrelations: natural regions. Along with a large circle of students and collaborators, Herbertson promoted natural regions as the conceptual keystone for geographical teaching and research. This article shows how natural regions theory conceived of climate as an object that was differently defined in different academic disciplines. Geography's climate, according to Herbertson and his supporters, was defined by its relations with other spatially distributed phenomena rather than being the quantifiable and isolable entity of modern climatology. Building on recent work in the history of cartography foregrounding map use and reception, the article also argues that natural regions were products of particular modes of map reading, comparison, and synthesis. Although maps were arguably the most influential medium for communicating natural regions, they also proved limited as bearers of the multiscalar version of climate that Herbertson and his successors sought to convey. Finally, the article explains how natural regions and associated conceptions of climate came to be sidelined in the mid-twentieth century as geographers foregrounded human agency in region formation and adopted climatology's definitions and analytical tools. Revisiting the life and death of theories of natural regions illuminates the contested significance of climate in the discipline of geography, and contributes to ongoing efforts to pluralise the history of climate sciences.
Crisis, by its very nature, requires decisive intervention. However, important questions can be o... more Crisis, by its very nature, requires decisive intervention. However, important questions can be obscured by the very immediacy of the crisis condition. What is the nature of the crisis? How it is defined (and by whom)? And, subsequently, what forms of knowledge are deemed legitimate and authoritative for informing interventions? As we see in the current pandemic, there is a desire for immediate answers and solutions during periods of uncertainty. Policymakers and publics grasp for techno-scientific solutions, as though the technical nature of the crisis is self-evident. What is often obscured by this impulse is the contingent, conjunctural and, ultimately, social nature of these crises. The danger here is that by focusing on immediate technical goals, unanticipated secondary effects are produced. These either exacerbate the existing crisis or else produce subsequent crises. Equally, these technical goals can conceal the varied, and often unjust, distribution of risk exposure and resources and capacities for mitigation present within and between societies. These socio-political factors all have important functions in determining the effectiveness of interventions. As with climate change, the unfolding response to the COVID-19 pandemic underscores the importance of broadening the knowledge base beyond technical considerations. Only by including social scientific knowledge is it possible to understand the social nature of the crises we face. Only then is it possible to develop effective, just and legitimate responses. 2 | PLURALISING KNOWLEDGE IN UNCERTAIN TIMES The current global COVID-19 pandemic brings into sharp focus the problems of risk, uncertainty, knowledge and cultural values in times of crisis. Those of us studying climate change are well familiar with these problems. The challenge here is not only how to govern a scientifically, technically or medically defined risk. It is to ask what is obscured by defining that risk in such technical terms. It is also to understand how different governing strategies are interpreted and acted upon by other actors, individuals and organizations. Crises are inherently unstable periods, but periods in which decisive action is required. In the rush to ameliorate the symptoms, the contingent, conjunctural, and social nature of the crises are easily obscured. If so, then there is a substantial danger that short-term measures beget even greater longer-term problems. If potential secondary effects are not fully considered and anticipated, there is a risk that reactive-as well as preventive-measures will result in severe unintended consequences. Only by broadening the knowledge base beyond the technical in a transparent and plural manner can the social nature of the crisis be grasped. Only then can the nature of the normative choices be revealed. The questions to be asked, therefore, are "a crisis of what?" and "a crisis for whom?" Social scientific knowledge is crucial for understanding and mitigating crises. Social sciences can reveal secondary social and psychological effects of collective responses (including failures to respond), perceptions of risk and vulnerability, and how individuals and institutions cope with ignorance and uncertainty. The COVID-19 pandemic highlights what many researchers have long been arguing in relation to climate change (e.g., Hulme, 2011; Castree et al., 2014): how interrelated, interdependent and, ultimately, how "social" we are as a species, how the problems we face are multiscalar and transboundary-crossing several spheres of expertise and knowledge production-and how the knowledge we call upon must reflect this reality (Lövbrand et al., 2015). It may be argued that while the crisis is still unfolding, it is too soon to make an informed scholarly intervention. Conversely, we argue that because decisions with far-reaching consequences are being made now, it is precisely the right time to call for a greater plurality of knowledge. This entails bringing in broader sources of knowledge to the decision-making process, promoting more transparent decision-making processes and dismantling unhelpful "hierarchies of knowledge". In these "hierarchies," certain forms
Most readers of this essay will likely have written a PhD thesis, will be in the throes of writin... more Most readers of this essay will likely have written a PhD thesis, will be in the throes of writing one or perhaps will be aspiring to write one. There is a huge literature on the practice and experience of PhD research--on designing a thesis, on writing and research, on the student-supervisor relationship, on the doctoral student experience, and so on. In this essay, however, I reflect on a specific question less often asked: in what ways does a PhD thesis live on beyond the time when it can only be thought of as ‘work in progress’? I develop an answer to this question along four dimensions--the material, instrumental, epistemic and personal afterlives of a PhD thesis. For this reflection I use my own PhD thesis, awarded in 1985, as the case study. While the essay is therefore autobiographic, it is intended to provoke more general considerations about the longevity of PhD theses and their formative role for their authors and their authors’ subsequent careers. While a PhD thesis can be understood as having a variety of afterlives, those that matter the most are perhaps also those that are less easily recognised.
Climate change policies currently pay disproportionately greater attention to the mitigation of c... more Climate change policies currently pay disproportionately greater attention to the mitigation of climate change through emission reductions strategies than to adaptation measures. Realising that the world is already committed to some global warming, policy makers are beginning to turn their attention to the challenge of preparing society to adapt to the unfolding impacts at the local level. This two-part article presents an integrated, or &co-evolutionary', approach to using scenarios in adaptation and vulnerability assessment. Part I explains how climate and social scenarios can be integrated to better understand the interrelationships between a changing climate and the dynamic evolution of social, economic and political systems. The integrated scenarios are then calibrated so that they can be applied &bottom up' to local stakeholders in vulnerable sectors of the economy. Part I concludes that a co-evolutionary approach (1) produces a more sophisticated and dynamic account of the potential feedbacks between natural and human systems; (2) suggests that sustainability indicators are both a potentially valuable input to and an output of integrated scenario formulation and application. Part II describes how a broadly representative sample of public, private and voluntary organisations in the East Anglian region of the UK responded to the scenarios, and identi"es future research priorities.
An objective scheme, initially developed by Jenkinson and Collison, is used to classify daily cir... more An objective scheme, initially developed by Jenkinson and Collison, is used to classify daily circulation types over the British Isles, along the lines of the subjective method devised by Lamb. The scheme uses daily grid-point mean sea-level pressure data for the region. The results of the analysis over the period 1881-1989 are compared with 'true' Lamb weather types. The frequencies of objectively developed types are highly correlated with traditional Lamb types, especially so for synoptic (cyclonic and anticyclonic) types, although still good for wind directional types. Comparison of the two classification schemes reveals negligible differences between the correlations of the counts of circulation types and regional temperature and rainfall. The major difference between the two classification schemes is that the decline of the westerlies since 1940 is less evident with the objective scheme.
because there were more prolonged dry spells over the vegetation period. The probability of produ... more because there were more prolonged dry spells over the vegetation period. The probability of producing yields of less than 3.5 t ha ǁ1 in the 'with variability' scenario was nearly 0.50, compared with about 0.10 for the baseline and 'without variability' scenarios. Such changes in annual yield variability would make wheat a risky crop to grow in Spain and have important economic and social consequences. For the United Kingdom, changes in climate variability had little effect on either mean grain yield or its CV (Table 1). In contrast, Hulme et al. found no change in the range (and hence the variability) of simulated yields for these sites as a result of either multi-decadal natural or anthropogenic variability. The timescale of the imposed variability can therefore alter qualitatively whether or not variability has an effect. We conclude that it is important when assessing the impact of climate change to differentiate between natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change, as highlighted by Hulme et al., but also to apply changes in climate variability at appropriate timescales.
Climate Change offers a unique guide to students and general readers alike for making sense of th... more Climate Change offers a unique guide to students and general readers alike for making sense of this profound, far-reaching and contested idea. It presents climate change as an idea with a past, a present and a future. In 10 carefully crafted chapters, Climate Change offers a synoptic and inter-disciplinary understanding of the idea of climate change … from its varied historical and cultural origins, to its construction more recently through scientific endeavour, to the multiple ways in which political, social and cultural movements in today’s world seek to make sense of and act upon it, to the possible futures of climate, however it may be governed and imagined. The central claim of the book is that the full breadth and power of the idea of climate change can only be grasped from a vantage point that embraces the social sciences, humanities and natural sciences. This vantage point is what the book offers, written from the perspective of a geographer whose career work on climate change has drawn across the full range of academic disciplines.
Contemporary Climate Change Debates: A Student Primer, 2019
'Contemporary Debates on Climate Change' (Routledge, December 2019) is an innovative textbook whi... more 'Contemporary Debates on Climate Change' (Routledge, December 2019) is an innovative textbook which tackles some of the difficult questions raised by climate change. For the complex policy challenges surrounding climate adaptation and resilience, structured debates become effective learning devices for students. This book is organized around fifteen important questions, and is split into four parts: What do we need to know? What should we do? On what grounds should we base our actions? Who should be the agents of change? Each debate is addressed by two leading academics who present opposing viewpoints. Through this format the book is not only designed to introduce students of climate change to different arguments prompted by these questions, but also provides a unique opportunity for them to engage in critical thinking and debate amongst themselves. Each chapter concludes with suggestions for further reading and for discussion questions for use in student classes.
My latest book 'Weathered: Cultures of Climate' is published by Sage this week (17 November). I ... more My latest book 'Weathered: Cultures of Climate' is published by Sage this week (17 November). I attach here an abridged version of the final chapter (#12) of the book, titled 'The future of climate'.
Weathered: Cultures of Climate opens up the many ways in which the idea of climate is given meani... more Weathered: Cultures of Climate opens up the many ways in which the idea of climate is given meaning in different human cultures and how it is used; how climates are historicised, known, changed, lived with, blamed, feared, represented, predicted, governed and, at least putatively, redesigned. These actions performed on or with the idea of climate emerge from the diverse cultural interpretations of humans’ sensory experience of the atmosphere’s restless weather. Weathered develops a case for understanding climate as an enduring, yet malleable, idea which humans use to stabilise cultural relationships with their weather. The discursive phenomenon of climate-change should therefore be understood as a ubiquitous trope through which the material, psychological and cultural agency of climate is exercised in today’s world. In this sense the phenomenon of climate-change is not a decisive break from the past. Neither is it a unique outcome of modernity. Climate-change should rather be seen as the latest stage in the cultural evolution of the idea of climate, an idea which enables humans to live with their weather through a widening and changing range of cultural and material artefacts, practices, rituals and symbols.
""Climate change seems to be an insurmountable problem. Political solutions have so far had littl... more ""Climate change seems to be an insurmountable problem. Political solutions have so far had little impact. Some scientists are now advocating the so-called ‘Plan B’, a more direct way of reducing the rate of future warming by reflecting more sunlight back to space, creating a thermostat in the sky.
In this book, Mike Hulme argues against this kind of hubristic techno-fix. Drawing upon a distinguished career studying the science, politics and ethics of climate change, he shows why seeking to control global climate this way is undesirable, ungovernable and unattainable. Rather than seeking to solve climate change this way, Hulme proposes a re-framing of what is problematic about a changing climate. Science and technology should instead serve the more pragmatic goals of increasing societal resilience to weather risks, improving regional air quality and driving forward an energy technology transition. This ‘climate pragmatism’ offers a more plausible, affective and equitable response to climate change than does an illusory global thermostat.
""
There are many ways to understand the phenomenon of climate change . Anthropologists may seek it... more There are many ways to understand the phenomenon of climate change . Anthropologists may seek it by studying different human accounts of weather and agency, political scientists by studying the power relations revealed through climate negotiations between nation states. Earth system scientists are more likely to quantify and simulate the flows of energy, moisture and carbon dioxide through the planetary system. And historians will gain understanding by studying the historiography of climate change: who has written about it, when, why and how. This book offers another way of understanding climate change: by following the written and spoken words of one person who has dedicated several decades to the professional study of the phenomenon. At its simplest this is why Exploring Climate Change Through Science And In Society has been compiled: a collection of essays, articles, interviews and speeches dealing with climate change which I have published or delivered over the last 25 years. It is offered as an idiosyncratic window into the changing idea of climate change. "
Climate change is not ‘a problem’ waiting for ‘a solution’. It is an environmental, cultural and... more Climate change is not ‘a problem’ waiting for ‘a solution’. It is an environmental, cultural and political phenomenon which is re-shaping the way we think about ourselves, about our societies and about humanity’s place on Earth. This book provides a personal, yet scholarly, account of the emergence of this phenomenon and the globally diverse ways in which it is being understood. This novel account uses the different standpoints of science, economics, faith, psychology, communication, sociology, politics and development to help explain why we disagree about climate change.
During the first fifteen years of the twentieth century, Oxford-based Scottish geographer Andrew ... more During the first fifteen years of the twentieth century, Oxford-based Scottish geographer Andrew Herbertson constructed a framework for comprehending and categorising climate and its interrelations: natural regions. Along with a large circle of students and collaborators, Herbertson promoted natural regions as the conceptual keystone for geographical teaching and research. This article shows how natural regions theory conceived of climate as an object that was differently defined in different academic disciplines. Geography's climate, according to Herbertson and his supporters, was defined by its relations with other spatially distributed phenomena rather than being the quantifiable and isolable entity of modern climatology. Building on recent work in the history of cartography foregrounding map use and reception, the article also argues that natural regions were products of particular modes of map reading, comparison, and synthesis. Although maps were arguably the most influential medium for communicating natural regions, they also proved limited as bearers of the multiscalar version of climate that Herbertson and his successors sought to convey. Finally, the article explains how natural regions and associated conceptions of climate came to be sidelined in the mid-twentieth century as geographers foregrounded human agency in region formation and adopted climatology's definitions and analytical tools. Revisiting the life and death of theories of natural regions illuminates the contested significance of climate in the discipline of geography, and contributes to ongoing efforts to pluralise the history of climate sciences.
Crisis, by its very nature, requires decisive intervention. However, important questions can be o... more Crisis, by its very nature, requires decisive intervention. However, important questions can be obscured by the very immediacy of the crisis condition. What is the nature of the crisis? How it is defined (and by whom)? And, subsequently, what forms of knowledge are deemed legitimate and authoritative for informing interventions? As we see in the current pandemic, there is a desire for immediate answers and solutions during periods of uncertainty. Policymakers and publics grasp for techno-scientific solutions, as though the technical nature of the crisis is self-evident. What is often obscured by this impulse is the contingent, conjunctural and, ultimately, social nature of these crises. The danger here is that by focusing on immediate technical goals, unanticipated secondary effects are produced. These either exacerbate the existing crisis or else produce subsequent crises. Equally, these technical goals can conceal the varied, and often unjust, distribution of risk exposure and resources and capacities for mitigation present within and between societies. These socio-political factors all have important functions in determining the effectiveness of interventions. As with climate change, the unfolding response to the COVID-19 pandemic underscores the importance of broadening the knowledge base beyond technical considerations. Only by including social scientific knowledge is it possible to understand the social nature of the crises we face. Only then is it possible to develop effective, just and legitimate responses. 2 | PLURALISING KNOWLEDGE IN UNCERTAIN TIMES The current global COVID-19 pandemic brings into sharp focus the problems of risk, uncertainty, knowledge and cultural values in times of crisis. Those of us studying climate change are well familiar with these problems. The challenge here is not only how to govern a scientifically, technically or medically defined risk. It is to ask what is obscured by defining that risk in such technical terms. It is also to understand how different governing strategies are interpreted and acted upon by other actors, individuals and organizations. Crises are inherently unstable periods, but periods in which decisive action is required. In the rush to ameliorate the symptoms, the contingent, conjunctural, and social nature of the crises are easily obscured. If so, then there is a substantial danger that short-term measures beget even greater longer-term problems. If potential secondary effects are not fully considered and anticipated, there is a risk that reactive-as well as preventive-measures will result in severe unintended consequences. Only by broadening the knowledge base beyond the technical in a transparent and plural manner can the social nature of the crisis be grasped. Only then can the nature of the normative choices be revealed. The questions to be asked, therefore, are "a crisis of what?" and "a crisis for whom?" Social scientific knowledge is crucial for understanding and mitigating crises. Social sciences can reveal secondary social and psychological effects of collective responses (including failures to respond), perceptions of risk and vulnerability, and how individuals and institutions cope with ignorance and uncertainty. The COVID-19 pandemic highlights what many researchers have long been arguing in relation to climate change (e.g., Hulme, 2011; Castree et al., 2014): how interrelated, interdependent and, ultimately, how "social" we are as a species, how the problems we face are multiscalar and transboundary-crossing several spheres of expertise and knowledge production-and how the knowledge we call upon must reflect this reality (Lövbrand et al., 2015). It may be argued that while the crisis is still unfolding, it is too soon to make an informed scholarly intervention. Conversely, we argue that because decisions with far-reaching consequences are being made now, it is precisely the right time to call for a greater plurality of knowledge. This entails bringing in broader sources of knowledge to the decision-making process, promoting more transparent decision-making processes and dismantling unhelpful "hierarchies of knowledge". In these "hierarchies," certain forms
Most readers of this essay will likely have written a PhD thesis, will be in the throes of writin... more Most readers of this essay will likely have written a PhD thesis, will be in the throes of writing one or perhaps will be aspiring to write one. There is a huge literature on the practice and experience of PhD research--on designing a thesis, on writing and research, on the student-supervisor relationship, on the doctoral student experience, and so on. In this essay, however, I reflect on a specific question less often asked: in what ways does a PhD thesis live on beyond the time when it can only be thought of as ‘work in progress’? I develop an answer to this question along four dimensions--the material, instrumental, epistemic and personal afterlives of a PhD thesis. For this reflection I use my own PhD thesis, awarded in 1985, as the case study. While the essay is therefore autobiographic, it is intended to provoke more general considerations about the longevity of PhD theses and their formative role for their authors and their authors’ subsequent careers. While a PhD thesis can be understood as having a variety of afterlives, those that matter the most are perhaps also those that are less easily recognised.
Climate change policies currently pay disproportionately greater attention to the mitigation of c... more Climate change policies currently pay disproportionately greater attention to the mitigation of climate change through emission reductions strategies than to adaptation measures. Realising that the world is already committed to some global warming, policy makers are beginning to turn their attention to the challenge of preparing society to adapt to the unfolding impacts at the local level. This two-part article presents an integrated, or &co-evolutionary', approach to using scenarios in adaptation and vulnerability assessment. Part I explains how climate and social scenarios can be integrated to better understand the interrelationships between a changing climate and the dynamic evolution of social, economic and political systems. The integrated scenarios are then calibrated so that they can be applied &bottom up' to local stakeholders in vulnerable sectors of the economy. Part I concludes that a co-evolutionary approach (1) produces a more sophisticated and dynamic account of the potential feedbacks between natural and human systems; (2) suggests that sustainability indicators are both a potentially valuable input to and an output of integrated scenario formulation and application. Part II describes how a broadly representative sample of public, private and voluntary organisations in the East Anglian region of the UK responded to the scenarios, and identi"es future research priorities.
An objective scheme, initially developed by Jenkinson and Collison, is used to classify daily cir... more An objective scheme, initially developed by Jenkinson and Collison, is used to classify daily circulation types over the British Isles, along the lines of the subjective method devised by Lamb. The scheme uses daily grid-point mean sea-level pressure data for the region. The results of the analysis over the period 1881-1989 are compared with 'true' Lamb weather types. The frequencies of objectively developed types are highly correlated with traditional Lamb types, especially so for synoptic (cyclonic and anticyclonic) types, although still good for wind directional types. Comparison of the two classification schemes reveals negligible differences between the correlations of the counts of circulation types and regional temperature and rainfall. The major difference between the two classification schemes is that the decline of the westerlies since 1940 is less evident with the objective scheme.
because there were more prolonged dry spells over the vegetation period. The probability of produ... more because there were more prolonged dry spells over the vegetation period. The probability of producing yields of less than 3.5 t ha ǁ1 in the 'with variability' scenario was nearly 0.50, compared with about 0.10 for the baseline and 'without variability' scenarios. Such changes in annual yield variability would make wheat a risky crop to grow in Spain and have important economic and social consequences. For the United Kingdom, changes in climate variability had little effect on either mean grain yield or its CV (Table 1). In contrast, Hulme et al. found no change in the range (and hence the variability) of simulated yields for these sites as a result of either multi-decadal natural or anthropogenic variability. The timescale of the imposed variability can therefore alter qualitatively whether or not variability has an effect. We conclude that it is important when assessing the impact of climate change to differentiate between natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change, as highlighted by Hulme et al., but also to apply changes in climate variability at appropriate timescales.
Research Seminar, King's College London, Centre for Governance and Society, 23 November, 2021
The ambition to govern the climate is a dangerous one. Even more so when guided by a tenacious f... more The ambition to govern the climate is a dangerous one. Even more so when guided by a tenacious faith in the ‘iron hand’ of scientific rationalism. Epistemic certainty and moralism, when combined with climate deadline-ism (’10 more years to save the world’), fuels declarations of climate emergency – as we have seen in recent years. Even if initially benign, emergency politics opens the door to ‘strong men’ and for anti-liberalism. Rather than declaring ‘states of emergency’ in the name of a climate crisis, the approach to taming the worst effects of climate change should be one of pragmatism, incrementalism and experimentation. Drawing heavily form my new book Climate Change (Key Ideas in Geography) (Routledge, 2021), this talk develops this argument, explaining what I mean by ‘science-first’ and ‘more-than-science’ approaches to responding to the various realities of climate change. There are other resources and avenues available beyond scientific rationalism. For example, the ambiguity, complexity and partiality of religious myths, Indigenous knowledge-ways or the creative arts undermines the illusion that science will ever yield all that is necessary to know about the future to adequately guide actions in the present.
My professional career has been concerned with the study of climate: where and what it is, how it... more My professional career has been concerned with the study of climate: where and what it is, how it changes and why, what effects it has and what it means. In this lecture I will reflect on the different ways in which I have approached these questions over the last 35 years and place my own work in the context of the changing academic, public and political interest in climate. I use the short-hand categories of places, numbers and myths to demonstrate how we need geography, the sciences and the humanities to do full justice to understand the material and imaginative properties of climate. Just as physical climates transcend the political boundaries of nation states, so the idea of climate exceeds the capacities of single academic disciplines to understand it. My philosophy of climate is exemplified in the Centre that I founded (the Tyndall Centre), the journal that I edit (WIREs Climate Change) and the Master’s Programme I convene (MA Climate Change: History, Culture, Society).
In this talk I explore the idea of consensus in science, especially in climate science, drawing u... more In this talk I explore the idea of consensus in science, especially in climate science, drawing upon the work of STS scholars and philosophers of science. I discuss typologies of consensus and methods for making a consensus, referring to the IPCC and to the 'consensus entrepreneurs'. My six conclusions are:
There are different ways of making a consensus
The quality of a consensus matters more than it’s numerical strength
Don’t extend the reach of consensus
Consensus has limited public leverage and policy efficacy
A consensus is not forever – consensus is not the truth
Do not be intimidated by disagreement – as much in science as in politics
‘A discourse of emergencies is now central to international affairs’ (Calhoun 2008: 376). Emergen... more ‘A discourse of emergencies is now central to international affairs’ (Calhoun 2008: 376). Emergencies are dramatic, crisis-fuelled constructions, and they can take on many shapes and guises: humanitarian, public health, security, environmental, political. Emergencies and the language and imagery they conjure shape the way we see the world, our place in it and the possibilities and limits of human agency. More importantly, emergencies demand a response, often quick, often radical. Emergencies cannot be ignored, and therefore they provide a justification for action. It is important to recognise this emergency-shaped world we now inhabit when reflecting on how and why a climate emergency discourse is used as a justification for radical techno-fixes for a changing climate. Placing the human relationship with (global) climate into the ‘emergency’ category immediately changes the scope of the types of actions that may be justified and the actors who may legitimately undertake them. Many commentators invoke a future climate emergency as justification or warrant for research into sunlight reflection methods and their possible deployment. In this talk I will give some examples of how the climate emergency frame is used in such discourse and outline some of the many problems of invoking climate emgercencies to justify radical techno-fixes for climate change. Most obvious is the problem of defining, detecting and announcing a climate emergency. What exactly is, or what could be, a climate emergency, and for whom? Who is authorised to declare one? At what scale would the emergency have to be? Can they be declared pre-emptively? Depicting the future in terms of climate emergencies may well become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
In this talk I suggest that the story of climate change has become too univocal. There is an ort... more In this talk I suggest that the story of climate change has become too univocal. There is an orthodoxy which does not do justice to the complexities of what is happening to climates around the world, nor how such changes are understood and acted upon. I argue that a cultural analysis of climate and its changes is needed as much as, if not more than, a scientific one. Such analysis reveals the many different things that climate change means to different people in different places holding different concerns and priorities. Understanding this diversity, set against the universality of climate models and reports such as the IPCC, provides a sounder basis for thinking through the different ways in which policies and other interventions to deal with climatic dangers might be designed and enacted.
In 1988 few serious commentators believed that the politics of climate change would be anything o... more In 1988 few serious commentators believed that the politics of climate change would be anything other than tortuous. Yet the assumption has remained through the period since that human-induced climate change is an important, urgent and discrete problem which at least in principle lends itself to policy solutions. Optimism has waxed and waned, but the belief has been maintained that at least some forms of policy intervention will yield tangible public benefits. Yes, the climatic side-effects of large-scale combustion of fossil fuels were an unforeseen and undesirable outcome of Western and then global industrialisation. But putting this causal chain into reverse—arresting these unwanted side-effects—was believed to be in the reach of an intelligent, purposeful and ingenious humanity. This presumption must now be questioned. Maybe the climate system cannot be purposely managed by humans.
This brief survey of climate change over 25 years suggests at least two reasons why. First, there is no ‘plan’, no self-evidently correct way of framing and tackling the phenomenon of climate change which will over-ride different legitimate interests and force convergence of political action. Second, climate science keeps on generating different forms of knowledge about climate—different handles on climate change--which are suggestive of different forms of political and institutional response to climate change. Taken together these two lessons suggest other ways of engaging with the idea of climate change, not as a discrete environmental phenomenon to prevent, control or manage, but as a forceful idea which carries creative potential.
In this lecture I describe the changing historical relationship between 'science' (I prefer the b... more In this lecture I describe the changing historical relationship between 'science' (I prefer the broader term knowledge, or Wissenschaft) and society in the context of enduring cultural attempts to bring order to the disorderliness of climate. Spirits and divinities, God, the forces of nature have in turn each been understood as the ultimate agents of weather and climate. I bring this history up to the present day and examine the perplexing relationship between the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (‘knowledge’) and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (‘agency’). I reflect on the paradox of our contemporary understanding of climate change: on the one hand scientific knowledge makes us the offer that, for the first time, climate is directly governable by human agency; and yet on the other hand our democratic institutions seem incapable of taking up this offer. This paradox is illustrated no more acutely than the case of putative climate geoengineering, the idea that through technological manipulation of the skies and seas we can create a ‘thermostat’ for the planet. Despite many (implicit) claims to the contrary, and for the moment at least, climate remains ungovernable.
Michael Mann has been in the climate wars for well over a decade now. As he reminds us frequently... more Michael Mann has been in the climate wars for well over a decade now. As he reminds us frequently in this new book, he has been in the crosshairs of his enemies, has fought off the attack dogs, and carries the scars of battle. Even the environmentalist Bill McKibben’s promotional puff for the book valorizes Mann in terms of his “scars from the climate wars.” The military framing of climate change long predates Mann’s involvement, but it certainly is a framing he has done much to promote through his blogs, tweets, and general persona-at-large in public discourse.
In March 2015 the BBC screened a 90 minute TV documentary titled 'Climate Change by Numbers'. The... more In March 2015 the BBC screened a 90 minute TV documentary titled 'Climate Change by Numbers'. The programme aimed to improve public understanding of climate change by focusing on " just three key numbers that clarify all the important questions about climate change ". The three numbers were 0.85 (the degrees Celsius of warming the planet has undergone since 1880), 95 (the percent confidence climate scientists have that at least half this warming is human-caused) and 1,000,000,000,000 (tonnes of carbon it is estimated humans can burn to avoid 'dangerous climate change'). But there are other languages beyond numbers and mathematics that matter for public debates about climate change. Understanding the public meanings of climate change, and therefore the basis for Ban Ki-Moon’s demanded “action”, requires more than just numbers or scientific knowledge. Studying the ways in which climate change is talked and written about through semantic, visual and embodied languages, and in different vernaculars, is necessary if the multiple meanings of climate change are to be excavated. And only through the construction and articulation of meaning is personal and collective political action on climate change possible. Science or numbers alone is never enough.
A cultural history of climate change, edited by Tom Bristow and Thomas H Ford, Abingdon and New Y... more A cultural history of climate change, edited by Tom Bristow and Thomas H Ford, Abingdon and New York, Earthscan/Routledge, 2016, xix + 244 pp., ISBN 978-1-138-83816-1 (hbk); ISBN 978-1-315-73459-1 (pbk).
Historians are not known for telling stories about the future; they are much more interested in c... more Historians are not known for telling stories about the future; they are much more interested in constructing stories about the past. Historical ‘facts’ are woven together to provide convincing accounts of how one thing led to another, seeking insights into why people acted the way they did and with what consequence. But there are no ‘facts’ about the future for historians to discover or construct. The future is usually left to the imagination of novelists, the secret knowledge of seers or the predictive models of scientists. So this mini-book from established science historians Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway is unusual to say the least.
Following the presentation a few months ago of the IPCC's 5 th Assessment Report, communication s... more Following the presentation a few months ago of the IPCC's 5 th Assessment Report, communication specialist Adam Corner in an on-line commentary made an important observation about the science and politics of climate change. Political arguments, he said, are not won by nuanced scientific claims, nor by clever point-scoring devices. They are won by telling stories, human stories, which resonate powerfully and persuasively with their audience.
Different cosmologies, religious thought, political ideologies, social practices and scientific p... more Different cosmologies, religious thought, political ideologies, social practices and scientific paradigms of knowledge all contribute to the rich cultural matrix in which theories of climatic change and causation have emerged, flourished and declined. It is exceptional for humans to think that climates change for either natural or supernatural reasons alone. Far more common in early human history, and indeed perhaps still today, is to believe that the performance of climate is tied to the behaviours of morally-accountable human actors. We therefore tend to think that we get the weather we deserve.
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Books by Mike Hulme
It presents climate change as an idea with a past, a present and a future. In 10 carefully crafted chapters, Climate Change offers a synoptic and inter-disciplinary understanding of the idea of climate change … from its varied historical and cultural origins, to its construction more recently through scientific endeavour, to the multiple ways in which political, social and cultural movements in today’s world seek to make sense of and act upon it, to the possible futures of climate, however it may be governed and imagined. The central claim of the book is that the full breadth and power of the idea of climate change can only be grasped from a vantage point that embraces the social sciences, humanities and natural sciences. This vantage point is what the book offers, written from the perspective of a geographer whose career work on climate change has drawn across the full range of academic disciplines.
In this book, Mike Hulme argues against this kind of hubristic techno-fix. Drawing upon a distinguished career studying the science, politics and ethics of climate change, he shows why seeking to control global climate this way is undesirable, ungovernable and unattainable. Rather than seeking to solve climate change this way, Hulme proposes a re-framing of what is problematic about a changing climate. Science and technology should instead serve the more pragmatic goals of increasing societal resilience to weather risks, improving regional air quality and driving forward an energy technology transition. This ‘climate pragmatism’ offers a more plausible, affective and equitable response to climate change than does an illusory global thermostat.
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Papers by Mike Hulme
It presents climate change as an idea with a past, a present and a future. In 10 carefully crafted chapters, Climate Change offers a synoptic and inter-disciplinary understanding of the idea of climate change … from its varied historical and cultural origins, to its construction more recently through scientific endeavour, to the multiple ways in which political, social and cultural movements in today’s world seek to make sense of and act upon it, to the possible futures of climate, however it may be governed and imagined. The central claim of the book is that the full breadth and power of the idea of climate change can only be grasped from a vantage point that embraces the social sciences, humanities and natural sciences. This vantage point is what the book offers, written from the perspective of a geographer whose career work on climate change has drawn across the full range of academic disciplines.
In this book, Mike Hulme argues against this kind of hubristic techno-fix. Drawing upon a distinguished career studying the science, politics and ethics of climate change, he shows why seeking to control global climate this way is undesirable, ungovernable and unattainable. Rather than seeking to solve climate change this way, Hulme proposes a re-framing of what is problematic about a changing climate. Science and technology should instead serve the more pragmatic goals of increasing societal resilience to weather risks, improving regional air quality and driving forward an energy technology transition. This ‘climate pragmatism’ offers a more plausible, affective and equitable response to climate change than does an illusory global thermostat.
""
There are different ways of making a consensus
The quality of a consensus matters more than it’s numerical strength
Don’t extend the reach of consensus
Consensus has limited public leverage and policy efficacy
A consensus is not forever – consensus is not the truth
Do not be intimidated by disagreement – as much in science as in politics
This brief survey of climate change over 25 years suggests at least two reasons why. First, there is no ‘plan’, no self-evidently correct way of framing and tackling the phenomenon of climate change which will over-ride different legitimate interests and force convergence of political action. Second, climate science keeps on generating different forms of knowledge about climate—different handles on climate change--which are suggestive of different forms of political and institutional response to climate change. Taken together these two lessons suggest other ways of engaging with the idea of climate change, not as a discrete environmental phenomenon to prevent, control or manage, but as a forceful idea which carries creative potential.