I am a senior lecturer in International Relation in the School of Politics and International Relations and an deputy director of the Australian National Center for Latin American Studies, both at the Australian National University. My research focus on Brazil and North-South and South-South relations through a Brazilian and Latin American lens.
Drawing on over seventy interviews, fieldwork in five countries, and a comprehensive survey of go... more Drawing on over seventy interviews, fieldwork in five countries, and a comprehensive survey of government documents, media reports and scholarly literature, Burges examines a series of issue areas - multilateralism, trade, and security - as well as the pattern of bilateral relations in South America, the Global South and with China and the USA to trace how Brazil formulates its transformative foreign policy agenda and works to implement it regionally and globally.
Specific focus is given to tracing how and why Brazil has moved onto the global stage, leveraging its regional predominance in South America into a global leadership role and bridge between the North and South in international affairs. The analysis highlights the extent to which foreign policy making in Brazil is changing as a field of public policy and the degree to which sustained political attention is necessary for a dynamic and innovative international engagement approach. Of interest to students, scholars and policy makers, this book casts light not only how an emerging power rises in the international system, but also isolates the blind spots that existing analytical approaches have when it comes to thinking about what power means for the increasingly vocal rising states of the global South.
"Since 1992--the end of the Cold War--Brazil has been slowly and quietly carving a niche for itse... more "Since 1992--the end of the Cold War--Brazil has been slowly and quietly carving a niche for itself in the international community: that of a regional leader in Latin America. How and why is the subject of Sean Burges's investigations.
Under President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Brazil embarked on a new direction vis-à-vis foreign policy. Brazilian diplomats set out to lead South America and the global south without actively claiming leadership or incurring the associated costs. They did so to protect Brazil's national autonomy in an ever-changing political climate.
Burges utilizes recently declassified documents and in-depth interviews with Brazilian leaders to track the adoption and implementation of Brazil's South American foreign policy and to explain the origins of this trajectory. Leadership and desire to lead have, until recently, been a contentious and forcefully disavowed ambition for Brazilian diplomats. Burges dispels this illusion and provides a framework for understanding the conduct and ambitions of Brazilian foreign policy that can be applied to the wider global arena."
Latin America occupies an increasingly prominent position within the global political, economic a... more Latin America occupies an increasingly prominent position within the global political, economic and cultural consciousness, with intra-regional governance structures and multilateral processes now a key topic of interest to foreign policy and international business circles. It has become abundantly clear that outside of Latin America there is a poor understanding of how the shifting sands of regional power are impacting, not only on how regional countries fit into the global system, but also on how intra-regional relations are viewed and managed. The contributions to this collection investigate these issues, examining how changing global power dynamics are in turn impacting on national foreign policies and regional governance structures. The book focuses first and foremost on the Latin American view outwards, not the US or European view to the south.
Introduction Sean W. Burges 1. The Rise and Decline of the Summit of the Americas Thomas Legler 2. Institutionalising a radical region? The Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America R. Guy Emerson 3. Post-Liberal Regionalism in Latin America and the Influence of Hugo Chávez Tom Chodor and Anthea McCarthy-Jones 4. Spillover Effects and Supranational Parliaments: The Case of Mercosur Andrés Malamud and Clarissa Dri 5. China’s Social Engagement Programs in Latin America Adrian H. Hearn 6. Implications of the Global and Regional Changes for Argentina’s Foreign Relations Roberto Russell and Juan Gabriel Tokatlian 7. When Trade Policy is Not Enough: Opportunities and Challenges for Chile’s International Insertion Lorena Oyarzún 8. Mistaking Brazil for a Middle Power Sean W. Burges
As abordagens convencionais sobre hegemonia enfatizam elementos de coercao e exclusao, caracteris... more As abordagens convencionais sobre hegemonia enfatizam elementos de coercao e exclusao, caracteristicas que nao explicam adequadamente o mecanismo de crescimento de varios projetos regionais ou as caracteristicas das politicas externas dos poderes emergentes. Este artigo desenvolve o conceito de hegemonia consensual, explicando como uma estrutura pode ser articulada, disseminada e mantida sem recorrer a forca para recrutar a participacao de outros atores. A ideia central e a construcao de uma visao estrutural, ou hegemonia, que inclui especifica e nominalmente subordinacao, que engajam em um processo de dialogo e interacoes, causando a subordinacao das partes para absorverem apropriadamente a substância e os requisitos da hegemonia como seus proprios. A utilidade da hegemonia consensual como instrumento analitico, especificamente para o estudo do regionalismo e das politicas externas dos mercados e poderes emergentes, e demonstrada pela politica externa brasileira no pos-Guerra Fria,...
Established in 1996, the Comunidade dos Países de Língua Portuguesa – Community of Portuguese-Spe... more Established in 1996, the Comunidade dos Países de Língua Portuguesa – Community of Portuguese-Speaking Countries – set out an ambitious agenda to both protect and promote the Portuguese language worldwide and to pursue a range of multilateral initiatives of importance to its members. Rigorous, independent evaluation of the CPLP‘s role and impact has yet, however, to appear. This study moves some distance towards remedying this gap through evidence-based assessment of the enduring objectives of the organisation. It concludes that, while significant advance has occurred in specific respects, progress has been elusive in others. Moreover, such progress has tended to materially benefit specific members of the coalition somewhat more than others.
Authoritarian regimes are under siege in many parts of the world. Some have already given way and... more Authoritarian regimes are under siege in many parts of the world. Some have already given way and others are likely to follow. Building democracies in their place will not be easy or quick, and in some cases it will not happen in the medium term. Much has been learned about how to organize free and fair elections, but building the other institutions and the habits of democratic governance inevitably takes time. Some countries in transition face intense divisions that make democracy challenging to achieve. In this video, Professor Abraham F (Abe) Lowenthal from the University of Southern California speaks with Dr Sean Burges, Lecturer in International Relations and Deputy Director of the ANU Centre for Latin American Studies about what we can learn from those countries which have been through this transition to democracy.
This chapter argues that Brazil’s emergence has only been partial due to a lack of forward strate... more This chapter argues that Brazil’s emergence has only been partial due to a lack of forward strategic thinking by the country’s foreign policy establishment. Tracing back to the 1993 foreign policy review Reflexoes Sobre a Politica Externa Brasileira, this chapter argues that despite Brazil’s surge onto the world scene, little has taken place in the way of revisiting and rethinking key concepts underlying its international interactions. Leadership, the chapter argues, requires the leader not only assume costs but also engage in activities potentially unpalatable to the led. For Brazil this is a challenge because there has not been a review of what traditional policies such as non-interventionism, autonomy, and a maximalist approach to sovereignty imply for a country that would be a leader.
Lula has regarded regional involvement as a means to strengthen Brazilian industry for global com... more Lula has regarded regional involvement as a means to strengthen Brazilian industry for global competition and to establish his country as a credible actor on the world stage.
"Latin America occupies an increasingly prominent position within the global political, econ... more "Latin America occupies an increasingly prominent position within the global political, economic and cultural consciousness, with intra-regional governance structures and multilateral processes now a key topic of interest to foreign policy and international business circles. It has become abundantly clear that outside of Latin America there is a poor understanding of how the shifting sands of regional power are impacting, not only on how regional countries fit into the global system, but also on how intra-regional relations are viewed and managed. The contributions to this collection investigate these issues, examining how changing global power dynamics are in turn impacting on national foreign policies and regional governance structures. The book focuses first and foremost on the Latin American view outwards, not the US or European view to the south. Introduction Sean W. Burges 1. The Rise and Decline of the Summit of the Americas Thomas Legler 2. Institutionalising a radical region? The Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America R. Guy Emerson 3. Post-Liberal Regionalism in Latin America and the Influence of Hugo Chávez Tom Chodor and Anthea McCarthy-Jones 4. Spillover Effects and Supranational Parliaments: The Case of Mercosur Andrés Malamud and Clarissa Dri 5. China’s Social Engagement Programs in Latin America Adrian H. Hearn 6. Implications of the Global and Regional Changes for Argentina’s Foreign Relations Roberto Russell and Juan Gabriel Tokatlian 7. When Trade Policy is Not Enough: Opportunities and Challenges for Chile’s International Insertion Lorena Oyarzún 8. Mistaking Brazil for a Middle Power Sean W. Burges "
Um dos desafios centrais da política externa que o vitorioso das eleições presidenciais de outubr... more Um dos desafios centrais da política externa que o vitorioso das eleições presidenciais de outubro enfrentará é como tornar esta área da política pública relevante de interesse para os políticos e para o público brasileiro. Este artigo trata deste desafio, argumentando que é o momento dos brasileiros reexaminarem o que é entendido por autonomia e soberania dentro do contexto da política externa do país.Não são oferecidas prescrições políticas ou interpretações. Ao contrário, a atenção é focada em argumentar que o contexto nacional, regional e global mudou, tornando a adesão a elementos conceituais pré-existentes perigosa potencialmente custosa. Se não houver nada para mudar, o artigo argumenta, isso deve ser uma escolha consciente que vem de debate político e público envolvido, que por sua vez irá proporcionar ao Itamaraty a direção e o apoio de que necessita para continuar avançando no interesse nacional do Brasil.
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy & International Relations, 2012
This paper looks at the rise of South-South cooperation as an alternative to traditional foreign ... more This paper looks at the rise of South-South cooperation as an alternative to traditional foreign aid provision by member agenices of the OECD's Development Assistance Committee. It tracks the rise of South-South cooperation and places it in the context of contemporary approaches to development programming, arguing that there are valuable lessons for the North in this Southern-driven approach to development.
On October 7, 2012, Hugo Chávez was comfortably reelected president of Venezuela. Just days befor... more On October 7, 2012, Hugo Chávez was comfortably reelected president of Venezuela. Just days before the vote, the impression given by major international print media was that it would be close, an assessment that proved to be at best optimistic. Western media coverage of the election in Venezuela was designed to skew the result toward the opposition, and this effort singularly failed. The “propaganda model” advanced by Herman and Chomsky is now faltering in the Americas, and the region is acting in a manner that is increasingly free of influence from the United States. Venezuela thus stands as a case of the citizenry actively and independently asserting its political agency despite clear attempts to redirect its thinking and decision making.El 7 de octubre de 2012, Hugo Chávez fue cómodamente reelegido presidente de Venezuela. Justo antes de las elecciones, los principales medios periodísticos internacionales daban por sentado que la votación iba a ser cerrada, una apreciación que re...
The Lula years emerge as notable because they mark one of larger shifts in the Brazilian foreign ... more The Lula years emerge as notable because they mark one of larger shifts in the Brazilian foreign policy-making process since the Baron of Rio Branco established a technocratic foreign ministry in 1902. On a more conceptual level the Lula brand of presidential diplomacy is interesting because its changing nature over the last eight years highlights the possibilities and perils of this diplomatic device, with the last year of Lula’s international presence perhaps proving the most challenging for Itamaraty. To flesh these ideas out this chapter will begin with a brief review of the concept of presidential diplomacy. Attention will then be turned to the policy-making changes that Lula’s government brought to Brazil’s international engagement and the manner in which presidential diplomacy drove these changes and was deployed as a tactic to advance the Worker’s Party foreign policy. The possibilities and perils of presidential diplomacy will then be outlined through reference to Lula’s activities. Finally, the chapter concludes by arguing that the Lulista version of presidential diplomacy has opened unproven, but potentially fruitful future possibilities for Brazil in the global South. Central to this is the proposition that the Lula presidency has precipitated a democratization of Brazilian foreign policy that has eroded the hegemony of Itamaraty and created the space for wider intra-governmental and societal debate about Brazil’s international relations.
DESCRIPTION The paper makes five related arguments. First, Brazil’s deepening insertion in the gl... more DESCRIPTION The paper makes five related arguments. First, Brazil’s deepening insertion in the global strategic and political economy has led both to a certain democratization of its foreign policy and to a weaker hold by Itamaraty over policy formulation and implementation. Second, by global standards and in spite of the opening just mentioned, Brazil remains relatively insulated from the vagaries of world affairs. Third, the pressures on Itamaraty’s monopoly resulting from Brazil’s deeper global insertion have been reinforced by the peculiar institutional forms of the country’s engagement. Fourth, the growing technical requirements of international policy-making has forced the generalists that overwhelmingly dominate the Ministry to rely on the expertise of other government departments or even outside think tanks and specialists, further weakening Itamaraty’s monopoly. Fifth, in spite of these structural, institutional and technical pressures, Itamaraty’s hold over foreign policy ...
Drawing on over seventy interviews, fieldwork in five countries, and a comprehensive survey of go... more Drawing on over seventy interviews, fieldwork in five countries, and a comprehensive survey of government documents, media reports and scholarly literature, Burges examines a series of issue areas - multilateralism, trade, and security - as well as the pattern of bilateral relations in South America, the Global South and with China and the USA to trace how Brazil formulates its transformative foreign policy agenda and works to implement it regionally and globally.
Specific focus is given to tracing how and why Brazil has moved onto the global stage, leveraging its regional predominance in South America into a global leadership role and bridge between the North and South in international affairs. The analysis highlights the extent to which foreign policy making in Brazil is changing as a field of public policy and the degree to which sustained political attention is necessary for a dynamic and innovative international engagement approach. Of interest to students, scholars and policy makers, this book casts light not only how an emerging power rises in the international system, but also isolates the blind spots that existing analytical approaches have when it comes to thinking about what power means for the increasingly vocal rising states of the global South.
"Since 1992--the end of the Cold War--Brazil has been slowly and quietly carving a niche for itse... more "Since 1992--the end of the Cold War--Brazil has been slowly and quietly carving a niche for itself in the international community: that of a regional leader in Latin America. How and why is the subject of Sean Burges's investigations.
Under President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Brazil embarked on a new direction vis-à-vis foreign policy. Brazilian diplomats set out to lead South America and the global south without actively claiming leadership or incurring the associated costs. They did so to protect Brazil's national autonomy in an ever-changing political climate.
Burges utilizes recently declassified documents and in-depth interviews with Brazilian leaders to track the adoption and implementation of Brazil's South American foreign policy and to explain the origins of this trajectory. Leadership and desire to lead have, until recently, been a contentious and forcefully disavowed ambition for Brazilian diplomats. Burges dispels this illusion and provides a framework for understanding the conduct and ambitions of Brazilian foreign policy that can be applied to the wider global arena."
Latin America occupies an increasingly prominent position within the global political, economic a... more Latin America occupies an increasingly prominent position within the global political, economic and cultural consciousness, with intra-regional governance structures and multilateral processes now a key topic of interest to foreign policy and international business circles. It has become abundantly clear that outside of Latin America there is a poor understanding of how the shifting sands of regional power are impacting, not only on how regional countries fit into the global system, but also on how intra-regional relations are viewed and managed. The contributions to this collection investigate these issues, examining how changing global power dynamics are in turn impacting on national foreign policies and regional governance structures. The book focuses first and foremost on the Latin American view outwards, not the US or European view to the south.
Introduction Sean W. Burges 1. The Rise and Decline of the Summit of the Americas Thomas Legler 2. Institutionalising a radical region? The Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America R. Guy Emerson 3. Post-Liberal Regionalism in Latin America and the Influence of Hugo Chávez Tom Chodor and Anthea McCarthy-Jones 4. Spillover Effects and Supranational Parliaments: The Case of Mercosur Andrés Malamud and Clarissa Dri 5. China’s Social Engagement Programs in Latin America Adrian H. Hearn 6. Implications of the Global and Regional Changes for Argentina’s Foreign Relations Roberto Russell and Juan Gabriel Tokatlian 7. When Trade Policy is Not Enough: Opportunities and Challenges for Chile’s International Insertion Lorena Oyarzún 8. Mistaking Brazil for a Middle Power Sean W. Burges
As abordagens convencionais sobre hegemonia enfatizam elementos de coercao e exclusao, caracteris... more As abordagens convencionais sobre hegemonia enfatizam elementos de coercao e exclusao, caracteristicas que nao explicam adequadamente o mecanismo de crescimento de varios projetos regionais ou as caracteristicas das politicas externas dos poderes emergentes. Este artigo desenvolve o conceito de hegemonia consensual, explicando como uma estrutura pode ser articulada, disseminada e mantida sem recorrer a forca para recrutar a participacao de outros atores. A ideia central e a construcao de uma visao estrutural, ou hegemonia, que inclui especifica e nominalmente subordinacao, que engajam em um processo de dialogo e interacoes, causando a subordinacao das partes para absorverem apropriadamente a substância e os requisitos da hegemonia como seus proprios. A utilidade da hegemonia consensual como instrumento analitico, especificamente para o estudo do regionalismo e das politicas externas dos mercados e poderes emergentes, e demonstrada pela politica externa brasileira no pos-Guerra Fria,...
Established in 1996, the Comunidade dos Países de Língua Portuguesa – Community of Portuguese-Spe... more Established in 1996, the Comunidade dos Países de Língua Portuguesa – Community of Portuguese-Speaking Countries – set out an ambitious agenda to both protect and promote the Portuguese language worldwide and to pursue a range of multilateral initiatives of importance to its members. Rigorous, independent evaluation of the CPLP‘s role and impact has yet, however, to appear. This study moves some distance towards remedying this gap through evidence-based assessment of the enduring objectives of the organisation. It concludes that, while significant advance has occurred in specific respects, progress has been elusive in others. Moreover, such progress has tended to materially benefit specific members of the coalition somewhat more than others.
Authoritarian regimes are under siege in many parts of the world. Some have already given way and... more Authoritarian regimes are under siege in many parts of the world. Some have already given way and others are likely to follow. Building democracies in their place will not be easy or quick, and in some cases it will not happen in the medium term. Much has been learned about how to organize free and fair elections, but building the other institutions and the habits of democratic governance inevitably takes time. Some countries in transition face intense divisions that make democracy challenging to achieve. In this video, Professor Abraham F (Abe) Lowenthal from the University of Southern California speaks with Dr Sean Burges, Lecturer in International Relations and Deputy Director of the ANU Centre for Latin American Studies about what we can learn from those countries which have been through this transition to democracy.
This chapter argues that Brazil’s emergence has only been partial due to a lack of forward strate... more This chapter argues that Brazil’s emergence has only been partial due to a lack of forward strategic thinking by the country’s foreign policy establishment. Tracing back to the 1993 foreign policy review Reflexoes Sobre a Politica Externa Brasileira, this chapter argues that despite Brazil’s surge onto the world scene, little has taken place in the way of revisiting and rethinking key concepts underlying its international interactions. Leadership, the chapter argues, requires the leader not only assume costs but also engage in activities potentially unpalatable to the led. For Brazil this is a challenge because there has not been a review of what traditional policies such as non-interventionism, autonomy, and a maximalist approach to sovereignty imply for a country that would be a leader.
Lula has regarded regional involvement as a means to strengthen Brazilian industry for global com... more Lula has regarded regional involvement as a means to strengthen Brazilian industry for global competition and to establish his country as a credible actor on the world stage.
"Latin America occupies an increasingly prominent position within the global political, econ... more "Latin America occupies an increasingly prominent position within the global political, economic and cultural consciousness, with intra-regional governance structures and multilateral processes now a key topic of interest to foreign policy and international business circles. It has become abundantly clear that outside of Latin America there is a poor understanding of how the shifting sands of regional power are impacting, not only on how regional countries fit into the global system, but also on how intra-regional relations are viewed and managed. The contributions to this collection investigate these issues, examining how changing global power dynamics are in turn impacting on national foreign policies and regional governance structures. The book focuses first and foremost on the Latin American view outwards, not the US or European view to the south. Introduction Sean W. Burges 1. The Rise and Decline of the Summit of the Americas Thomas Legler 2. Institutionalising a radical region? The Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America R. Guy Emerson 3. Post-Liberal Regionalism in Latin America and the Influence of Hugo Chávez Tom Chodor and Anthea McCarthy-Jones 4. Spillover Effects and Supranational Parliaments: The Case of Mercosur Andrés Malamud and Clarissa Dri 5. China’s Social Engagement Programs in Latin America Adrian H. Hearn 6. Implications of the Global and Regional Changes for Argentina’s Foreign Relations Roberto Russell and Juan Gabriel Tokatlian 7. When Trade Policy is Not Enough: Opportunities and Challenges for Chile’s International Insertion Lorena Oyarzún 8. Mistaking Brazil for a Middle Power Sean W. Burges "
Um dos desafios centrais da política externa que o vitorioso das eleições presidenciais de outubr... more Um dos desafios centrais da política externa que o vitorioso das eleições presidenciais de outubro enfrentará é como tornar esta área da política pública relevante de interesse para os políticos e para o público brasileiro. Este artigo trata deste desafio, argumentando que é o momento dos brasileiros reexaminarem o que é entendido por autonomia e soberania dentro do contexto da política externa do país.Não são oferecidas prescrições políticas ou interpretações. Ao contrário, a atenção é focada em argumentar que o contexto nacional, regional e global mudou, tornando a adesão a elementos conceituais pré-existentes perigosa potencialmente custosa. Se não houver nada para mudar, o artigo argumenta, isso deve ser uma escolha consciente que vem de debate político e público envolvido, que por sua vez irá proporcionar ao Itamaraty a direção e o apoio de que necessita para continuar avançando no interesse nacional do Brasil.
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy & International Relations, 2012
This paper looks at the rise of South-South cooperation as an alternative to traditional foreign ... more This paper looks at the rise of South-South cooperation as an alternative to traditional foreign aid provision by member agenices of the OECD's Development Assistance Committee. It tracks the rise of South-South cooperation and places it in the context of contemporary approaches to development programming, arguing that there are valuable lessons for the North in this Southern-driven approach to development.
On October 7, 2012, Hugo Chávez was comfortably reelected president of Venezuela. Just days befor... more On October 7, 2012, Hugo Chávez was comfortably reelected president of Venezuela. Just days before the vote, the impression given by major international print media was that it would be close, an assessment that proved to be at best optimistic. Western media coverage of the election in Venezuela was designed to skew the result toward the opposition, and this effort singularly failed. The “propaganda model” advanced by Herman and Chomsky is now faltering in the Americas, and the region is acting in a manner that is increasingly free of influence from the United States. Venezuela thus stands as a case of the citizenry actively and independently asserting its political agency despite clear attempts to redirect its thinking and decision making.El 7 de octubre de 2012, Hugo Chávez fue cómodamente reelegido presidente de Venezuela. Justo antes de las elecciones, los principales medios periodísticos internacionales daban por sentado que la votación iba a ser cerrada, una apreciación que re...
The Lula years emerge as notable because they mark one of larger shifts in the Brazilian foreign ... more The Lula years emerge as notable because they mark one of larger shifts in the Brazilian foreign policy-making process since the Baron of Rio Branco established a technocratic foreign ministry in 1902. On a more conceptual level the Lula brand of presidential diplomacy is interesting because its changing nature over the last eight years highlights the possibilities and perils of this diplomatic device, with the last year of Lula’s international presence perhaps proving the most challenging for Itamaraty. To flesh these ideas out this chapter will begin with a brief review of the concept of presidential diplomacy. Attention will then be turned to the policy-making changes that Lula’s government brought to Brazil’s international engagement and the manner in which presidential diplomacy drove these changes and was deployed as a tactic to advance the Worker’s Party foreign policy. The possibilities and perils of presidential diplomacy will then be outlined through reference to Lula’s activities. Finally, the chapter concludes by arguing that the Lulista version of presidential diplomacy has opened unproven, but potentially fruitful future possibilities for Brazil in the global South. Central to this is the proposition that the Lula presidency has precipitated a democratization of Brazilian foreign policy that has eroded the hegemony of Itamaraty and created the space for wider intra-governmental and societal debate about Brazil’s international relations.
DESCRIPTION The paper makes five related arguments. First, Brazil’s deepening insertion in the gl... more DESCRIPTION The paper makes five related arguments. First, Brazil’s deepening insertion in the global strategic and political economy has led both to a certain democratization of its foreign policy and to a weaker hold by Itamaraty over policy formulation and implementation. Second, by global standards and in spite of the opening just mentioned, Brazil remains relatively insulated from the vagaries of world affairs. Third, the pressures on Itamaraty’s monopoly resulting from Brazil’s deeper global insertion have been reinforced by the peculiar institutional forms of the country’s engagement. Fourth, the growing technical requirements of international policy-making has forced the generalists that overwhelmingly dominate the Ministry to rely on the expertise of other government departments or even outside think tanks and specialists, further weakening Itamaraty’s monopoly. Fifth, in spite of these structural, institutional and technical pressures, Itamaraty’s hold over foreign policy ...
... Brazilian Foreign Policy After the Cold War. ... The focus of this work is how Brazilian fore... more ... Brazilian Foreign Policy After the Cold War. ... The focus of this work is how Brazilian foreign policy sought to formulate and implement a hegemonic project in South America after 1992 as a strategy for protecting national autonomy in the post-Cold War international system. ...
Short analytical article exploring the changes in Canadian political culture and practice of poli... more Short analytical article exploring the changes in Canadian political culture and practice of politics. Originally published in Portuguese by Interesse Nacional at https://interessenacional.com.br/portal/o-colapso-da-civilidade-canadense/
OpEd critiquing Brazil's environmental leadership and the wider actions of leaders in other count... more OpEd critiquing Brazil's environmental leadership and the wider actions of leaders in other countries
OpEd published in Interesse Nacional on the Esequibo crisis between Venezuela and Guyana and the ... more OpEd published in Interesse Nacional on the Esequibo crisis between Venezuela and Guyana and the implications for Brazilian leadership regionally and globallly.
OpEd published in Portuguese about the Esequibo crisis between Venezuela and Guyana and its impli... more OpEd published in Portuguese about the Esequibo crisis between Venezuela and Guyana and its implications for Brazilian leadership
(Pre-publication text)
Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff has won re-election for a second ter... more (Pre-publication text)
Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff has won re-election for a second term by the skin of her teeth, scrapping in just 51.6% of the vote in the second round runoff held on Sunday. Her victory represents a remarkable triumph of former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s legacy amongst the poor and socially marginalized as well as the power of sophisticated political marketing to drive voter understanding of campaign debates.
It would be an understatement to say that the economic elites of Brazil opposed Dilma’s re-election. The major newspapers and television shows adopted a staunchly anti-Dilma editorial line. Most emblematic of this was the accelerated Friday publication of the weekly news magazine Veja, which carried details of a criminal investigation into a scheme that allegedly saw Dilma’s Workers Party (PT) divert close to AUD$4.6 billion from state oil giant Petrobras to its political coffers. While these and other charges of corruption at the heart of the PT certainly hurt Dilma’s support base, which is significantly down from 2010, ultimately voters decided to go with the devil they know.
Perhaps voters were thinking back to former mayor and governor of São Paulo, Adhemar de Barros, who was famous for his corruption, but lovingly embraced with the pragmatic justification: “he robs, but he gets things done.” Indeed, at one level the election can be seen as coming down to a choice of who would get the most done amidst a sustained mire of governmental corruption – opposition candidate Aécio Neves was also the subject of serious allegations of corruption stemming from his time as governor of Minas Gerais state.
Dilma is a dependent heir of Lula’s legacy of social programming and pro-poor inclusiveness, policies which helped lift well over thirty million out of poverty and transformed the country. Throughout the campaign Dilma’s team repeatedly pushed the message that Aécio would rollback social programming to balance the government’s books. For his part Aécio was clear that Lula’s programs stemmed from initiatives started by his party in the 1990s, and that he would extend and deepen the existing programs to make them constitutional rights, not mere governmental programs. In the end it came down to trust, with a thin majority of Brazilians placing their faith in the party of Lula, which widened the programs that lifted them from poverty, not the party that stabilized the economy to create the conditions allowing the establishment of a strong social welfare state in Brazil.
Dilma’s challenge is that the magic aura of Lula is not going to help her address the pressing issues already waiting on her desk. First, and most worrying for Brazilians who remember the 1980s and 1990s is the question of inflation. Brazil has already exceeded its desired annual inflation ceiling of 6.5%, barely keeping the rising rate under control by artificially suppressing energy costs, most notably that of the gasoline sold by Petrobras, a company which is itself coming under pressure from creditors.
The second issue Dilma must address is the country’s anemic economy. With the commodity boom over, current projections from the IMF forecast a 2014 GDP growth rate of just 0.3%, rising to 1.4% in 2015. These numbers are inline with disappointing performance during the Dilma years, which the World Bank averages at 2.5%, one of the lowest levels in South America. Two factors are holding Brazil back, both of which can be addressed directly by Dilma. First, government banks and state-controlled companies are crowding out private investors, matters which are compounded by high interest rates. Second, the failure of the previous twelve years of PT government to implement effective regulatory and tax reform means that Brazil remains an incredibly difficult place to start and run an enterprise, languishing at 116th place in the World Bank’s ‘ease of doing business’ league table.
Addressing the economic hurdles of inflation, heavy-handed state intervention in the economy and oceans of regulatory red tape are critical hurdles that Dilma must address if her next presidency is to preside over further reductions in poverty. As effective as the Lula era social programs are at addressing the symptoms of poverty, the reality is that they do not address the cause, which is low economic growth.
Finally, Dilma must restore public faith in politics, which means addressing corruption. Alberto Youssef’s detailed revelations that billions of dollars were siphoned from Petrobras to PT mean that Dilma can no longer hide behind the plausible deniability line of “I did not know” when she oversaw the company first as mining and energy minister and then as president. In the past Dilma has studiously avoided rescuing public officials accused of corruption, most notably the eight ministers she inherited from Lula who were resigned amidst scandal at the start of her administration. The constant stream of allegations strongly suggest that her party has a serious cancer of corruption at its core, something which she is free to address now that she no longer needs Lula’s support for reelection.
Layered on top of these three big issues are the ongoing challenges of providing the public services that Brazilians are demanding – the health, transportation and education services claimed loudly during the massive street protests of 2013. Delivering is going to take serious effort at rebuilding bridges badly burned by the extremely negative campaign run by PT strategists. Although Dilma and the PT secured the presidency, they control neither congress, nor the a majority of powerful state governors, all of whom know that their electorate is angry and holds little faith in their leadership. For Dilma the campaign may prove to be the easy part. The hard work is only just beginning.
Dr Sean W Burges is Deputy Director of the Australian National Centre for Latin American Studies at the Australian National University and a Senior Fellow of the Washington, DC-based Council on Hemispheric Affairs.
The author will be providing a series of briefings next week in Melbourne and Canberra on the implications of the election result. Details at www.anclas.anu.edu.au.
Brazilians go to the polls on Sunday, October 26, to vote in the second round of their presidenti... more Brazilians go to the polls on Sunday, October 26, to vote in the second round of their presidential election. The contest pits incumbent Dilma Rousseff of the centre-left Worker's Party (PT) against the Aécio Neves, candidate for the centre-right Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB) and former governor of Minas Gerais state.
To say that emotions are charged going into the ballot is an understatement. The campaign has been the most ill-tempered in democratic Brazil's history with both candidates publicly and frequently accusing each other of outright lying and fabricating false charges of malfeasance. Chief among the accusations has been that of corrupt use of public office. Rousseff charged Neves with building an airport to service a family member's ranch as well as syphoning off tens of millions of dollars from the state health budget. For his part Neves jumped on the recent revelations that the PT was running a kickback scheme sucking millions from state oil company Petrobras into the party's coffers.
But the mutual corruption allegations remain a bit of a sideshow to the main electoral event, largely because most voters in Brazil wearily admit that there is likely more than a grain of truth to the allegations. Of greater concern to Brazilians is the future of the social programs that have lifted more than 30 million from poverty over the last decade and the ability of the next government to restart job-generating growth in the country's moribund economy. Despite the warnings from Rousseff that the opposition would end social programs or Neves' claims that the PT will cause them to collapse through mismanagement, the reality is that both candidates are deeply committed to strengthening and deepening the social safety net that has been transforming Brazil over the last two decades. Where they differ is in how they will go about funding it, which has important implications for the direction Brazil will take over the next four years.
Voters face a classic choice between the left and the right. For the last 12 years the PT presidencies of Lula da Silva (2003-2010) and Rousseff (2011-present) have pursued an increasingly statist approach to national development. As Rousseff has repeatedly emphasized during her campaign the PT gives primacy to advancing social inclusion – badly needed in Brazil – over economic orthodoxy, creating an either/or division contested by many Brazilian analysts. Social programs launched during the last PSDB presidency of Fernando Henrique Cardoso from 1995-2002 were consolidated and then expanded by the PT, most notably under the umbrella of the conditional cash transfer program Bolsa Familia. The bill was paid through the two main avenues of taxation on consumer goods and the strategic manipulation of state-controlled assets and large public spending campaigns.
The critique delivered by Neves is twofold. While the PT's social policies have delivered laudable results, they are not sustainable in the current economic climate. Exacerbating matters is the government's failure to deliver in key areas such as healthcare, education and infrastructure provision – the same policy areas that led to mass street protests in June 2013. Inflationary pressures, an old public enemy, also seem to be back, with rates currently above the Central Bank's target ceiling of 6.5 per cent and rising.
The PSDB plan is to bring mainstream conceptions of economic rationality and responsibility back to government decision-making. In particular, Neves wants to reduce the state's role in the economy and focus on creating the conditions that will allow a rise in the private investment levels, which will result in more job creation and restart growth. He also wants to end what his party labels an ideologised foreign policy that has prevented Brazil from signing new trade deals both in the hemisphere and globally, failures that he claims are strangling the national economy.
With the easy growth days of the commodity boom now a fond and fading memory, Brazilians are faced with a difficult choice about how they want to see their country governed. Rousseff's social inclusion approach has soaring popularity in the poorest parts of the country, particularly the North-east, while Neves' economic growth approach is resonating most strongly with the richer areas that have a rising middle class. For Brazilians the choices are stark and divisive with the most recent polls pointing to an almost dead heat between the candidates. The direction that Brazil will take for the next four years will only begin to become apparent a few hours after voting ends on Sunday night.
Dr Sean W Burges is deputy director of the Australian National Centre for Latin American Studies at the Australian National University.
Patrick Carvalho is a lecturer in the Research School of Economics at the Australian National University.
The authors will be providing a series of briefings in Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra on the implications of the election result. Details at www.anclas.anu.edu.au.
One of the central foreign policy challenges that will confront the victor of October presidentia... more One of the central foreign policy challenges that will confront the victor of October presidential election is how to make this area of public policy relevant and of interest to Brazilian politicians and the wider public. This article addresses this challenge by arguing that it is time for Brazilians to re-examine what is meant by autonomy and sovereignty within the context for their country‟s foreign policy. No policy prescriptions or interpretations are offered. Attention is instead focused on arguing that the national, regional and global context has changed, making reflexive adherence to pre-existing conceptual understandings is dangerous and does carry costs. If nothing is to change, the article argues, this should be a conscious choice that comes from politically and publicly engaged debate, which in turn will provide Itamaraty with the direction and support it needs to continue advancing Brazil‟s national interest.
ABSRACT: Much has been said about Brazil as an emerging power, with some scholars pointing to the... more ABSRACT: Much has been said about Brazil as an emerging power, with some scholars pointing to the country's rise as key global actor and others decrying it as a 'leader without followers'. This chapter will argue that while Brazil has emerged, the emergence has only been partial due to a lack of forward strategic thinking by the country's foreign policy establishment. Tracing back to the 1993 foreign policy review Reflexões Sobre a Política Externa Brasileira, this article will argue that a significant challenge facing Brazilian foreign policy is that despite Brazil's surge onto the world scene little has taken place in the way of revisiting and rethinking key concepts underlying its international interactions. Leadership, the chapter will argue, requires that the leader not only assume costs, but also engage in activities that may be unpalatable to the led. For Brazil this is a challenge because there has not been a review of what traditional policies such as non-interventionism, autonomy, and a maximilist approach to sovereignty imply for a country that would be a leader. Introduction: During a 2001 research interview with a Brazilian diplomat I was advised to search out a copy of the draft 1993 Itamaraty report Reflexões Sobre a Política Externa Brasileira (IPRI, 1993). There, I was promised, I would find the core principles, concepts, and ambitions of Brazilian foreign policy mapped out, explained, and contextualized. Nothing of substance had since changed, assured the diplomat, pointing out that the entire consultation exercise was launched by then foreign minister Fernando Henrique Cardoso in order to review and update Brazil's foreign policy strategy for a post-Cold War era and domestic context of rapidly consolidating democratic governance. The 351-page document did not disappoint, although it appears to have received only a limited formal release to the public; for a period in the early 2000s it was retrievable online if you knew the correct Google search string, before disappearing for nearly a decade prior to its 2015 re-posting by the in-house Itamaraty think tank the Fundação Alexandre Gusmão. What is clear from the document is that the idea of positioning Brazil as something of a leader in South America and the wider South was an appealing ambition in the early 1990s. More significantly, while the sorts of specific priorities and orientations of Brazilian foreign policy have subsequently experienced substantial shifts in the intervening twenty
Uploads
Books by Sean Burges
Specific focus is given to tracing how and why Brazil has moved onto the global stage, leveraging its regional predominance in South America into a global leadership role and bridge between the North and South in international affairs. The analysis highlights the extent to which foreign policy making in Brazil is changing as a field of public policy and the degree to which sustained political attention is necessary for a dynamic and innovative international engagement approach. Of interest to students, scholars and policy makers, this book casts light not only how an emerging power rises in the international system, but also isolates the blind spots that existing analytical approaches have when it comes to thinking about what power means for the increasingly vocal rising states of the global South.
Under President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Brazil embarked on a new direction vis-à-vis foreign policy. Brazilian diplomats set out to lead South America and the global south without actively claiming leadership or incurring the associated costs. They did so to protect Brazil's national autonomy in an ever-changing political climate.
Burges utilizes recently declassified documents and in-depth interviews with Brazilian leaders to track the adoption and implementation of Brazil's South American foreign policy and to explain the origins of this trajectory. Leadership and desire to lead have, until recently, been a contentious and forcefully disavowed ambition for Brazilian diplomats. Burges dispels this illusion and provides a framework for understanding the conduct and ambitions of Brazilian foreign policy that can be applied to the wider global arena."
Introduction Sean W. Burges 1. The Rise and Decline of the Summit of the Americas Thomas Legler 2. Institutionalising a radical region? The Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America R. Guy Emerson 3. Post-Liberal Regionalism in Latin America and the Influence of Hugo Chávez Tom Chodor and Anthea McCarthy-Jones 4. Spillover Effects and Supranational Parliaments: The Case of Mercosur Andrés Malamud and Clarissa Dri 5. China’s Social Engagement Programs in Latin America Adrian H. Hearn 6. Implications of the Global and Regional Changes for Argentina’s Foreign Relations Roberto Russell and Juan Gabriel Tokatlian 7. When Trade Policy is Not Enough: Opportunities and Challenges for Chile’s International Insertion Lorena Oyarzún 8. Mistaking Brazil for a Middle Power Sean W. Burges
Papers by Sean Burges
Specific focus is given to tracing how and why Brazil has moved onto the global stage, leveraging its regional predominance in South America into a global leadership role and bridge between the North and South in international affairs. The analysis highlights the extent to which foreign policy making in Brazil is changing as a field of public policy and the degree to which sustained political attention is necessary for a dynamic and innovative international engagement approach. Of interest to students, scholars and policy makers, this book casts light not only how an emerging power rises in the international system, but also isolates the blind spots that existing analytical approaches have when it comes to thinking about what power means for the increasingly vocal rising states of the global South.
Under President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Brazil embarked on a new direction vis-à-vis foreign policy. Brazilian diplomats set out to lead South America and the global south without actively claiming leadership or incurring the associated costs. They did so to protect Brazil's national autonomy in an ever-changing political climate.
Burges utilizes recently declassified documents and in-depth interviews with Brazilian leaders to track the adoption and implementation of Brazil's South American foreign policy and to explain the origins of this trajectory. Leadership and desire to lead have, until recently, been a contentious and forcefully disavowed ambition for Brazilian diplomats. Burges dispels this illusion and provides a framework for understanding the conduct and ambitions of Brazilian foreign policy that can be applied to the wider global arena."
Introduction Sean W. Burges 1. The Rise and Decline of the Summit of the Americas Thomas Legler 2. Institutionalising a radical region? The Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America R. Guy Emerson 3. Post-Liberal Regionalism in Latin America and the Influence of Hugo Chávez Tom Chodor and Anthea McCarthy-Jones 4. Spillover Effects and Supranational Parliaments: The Case of Mercosur Andrés Malamud and Clarissa Dri 5. China’s Social Engagement Programs in Latin America Adrian H. Hearn 6. Implications of the Global and Regional Changes for Argentina’s Foreign Relations Roberto Russell and Juan Gabriel Tokatlian 7. When Trade Policy is Not Enough: Opportunities and Challenges for Chile’s International Insertion Lorena Oyarzún 8. Mistaking Brazil for a Middle Power Sean W. Burges
Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff has won re-election for a second term by the skin of her teeth, scrapping in just 51.6% of the vote in the second round runoff held on Sunday. Her victory represents a remarkable triumph of former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s legacy amongst the poor and socially marginalized as well as the power of sophisticated political marketing to drive voter understanding of campaign debates.
It would be an understatement to say that the economic elites of Brazil opposed Dilma’s re-election. The major newspapers and television shows adopted a staunchly anti-Dilma editorial line. Most emblematic of this was the accelerated Friday publication of the weekly news magazine Veja, which carried details of a criminal investigation into a scheme that allegedly saw Dilma’s Workers Party (PT) divert close to AUD$4.6 billion from state oil giant Petrobras to its political coffers. While these and other charges of corruption at the heart of the PT certainly hurt Dilma’s support base, which is significantly down from 2010, ultimately voters decided to go with the devil they know.
Perhaps voters were thinking back to former mayor and governor of São Paulo, Adhemar de Barros, who was famous for his corruption, but lovingly embraced with the pragmatic justification: “he robs, but he gets things done.” Indeed, at one level the election can be seen as coming down to a choice of who would get the most done amidst a sustained mire of governmental corruption – opposition candidate Aécio Neves was also the subject of serious allegations of corruption stemming from his time as governor of Minas Gerais state.
Dilma is a dependent heir of Lula’s legacy of social programming and pro-poor inclusiveness, policies which helped lift well over thirty million out of poverty and transformed the country. Throughout the campaign Dilma’s team repeatedly pushed the message that Aécio would rollback social programming to balance the government’s books. For his part Aécio was clear that Lula’s programs stemmed from initiatives started by his party in the 1990s, and that he would extend and deepen the existing programs to make them constitutional rights, not mere governmental programs. In the end it came down to trust, with a thin majority of Brazilians placing their faith in the party of Lula, which widened the programs that lifted them from poverty, not the party that stabilized the economy to create the conditions allowing the establishment of a strong social welfare state in Brazil.
Dilma’s challenge is that the magic aura of Lula is not going to help her address the pressing issues already waiting on her desk. First, and most worrying for Brazilians who remember the 1980s and 1990s is the question of inflation. Brazil has already exceeded its desired annual inflation ceiling of 6.5%, barely keeping the rising rate under control by artificially suppressing energy costs, most notably that of the gasoline sold by Petrobras, a company which is itself coming under pressure from creditors.
The second issue Dilma must address is the country’s anemic economy. With the commodity boom over, current projections from the IMF forecast a 2014 GDP growth rate of just 0.3%, rising to 1.4% in 2015. These numbers are inline with disappointing performance during the Dilma years, which the World Bank averages at 2.5%, one of the lowest levels in South America. Two factors are holding Brazil back, both of which can be addressed directly by Dilma. First, government banks and state-controlled companies are crowding out private investors, matters which are compounded by high interest rates. Second, the failure of the previous twelve years of PT government to implement effective regulatory and tax reform means that Brazil remains an incredibly difficult place to start and run an enterprise, languishing at 116th place in the World Bank’s ‘ease of doing business’ league table.
Addressing the economic hurdles of inflation, heavy-handed state intervention in the economy and oceans of regulatory red tape are critical hurdles that Dilma must address if her next presidency is to preside over further reductions in poverty. As effective as the Lula era social programs are at addressing the symptoms of poverty, the reality is that they do not address the cause, which is low economic growth.
Finally, Dilma must restore public faith in politics, which means addressing corruption. Alberto Youssef’s detailed revelations that billions of dollars were siphoned from Petrobras to PT mean that Dilma can no longer hide behind the plausible deniability line of “I did not know” when she oversaw the company first as mining and energy minister and then as president. In the past Dilma has studiously avoided rescuing public officials accused of corruption, most notably the eight ministers she inherited from Lula who were resigned amidst scandal at the start of her administration. The constant stream of allegations strongly suggest that her party has a serious cancer of corruption at its core, something which she is free to address now that she no longer needs Lula’s support for reelection.
Layered on top of these three big issues are the ongoing challenges of providing the public services that Brazilians are demanding – the health, transportation and education services claimed loudly during the massive street protests of 2013. Delivering is going to take serious effort at rebuilding bridges badly burned by the extremely negative campaign run by PT strategists. Although Dilma and the PT secured the presidency, they control neither congress, nor the a majority of powerful state governors, all of whom know that their electorate is angry and holds little faith in their leadership. For Dilma the campaign may prove to be the easy part. The hard work is only just beginning.
Dr Sean W Burges is Deputy Director of the Australian National Centre for Latin American Studies at the Australian National University and a Senior Fellow of the Washington, DC-based Council on Hemispheric Affairs.
The author will be providing a series of briefings next week in Melbourne and Canberra on the implications of the election result. Details at www.anclas.anu.edu.au.
To say that emotions are charged going into the ballot is an understatement. The campaign has been the most ill-tempered in democratic Brazil's history with both candidates publicly and frequently accusing each other of outright lying and fabricating false charges of malfeasance. Chief among the accusations has been that of corrupt use of public office. Rousseff charged Neves with building an airport to service a family member's ranch as well as syphoning off tens of millions of dollars from the state health budget. For his part Neves jumped on the recent revelations that the PT was running a kickback scheme sucking millions from state oil company Petrobras into the party's coffers.
But the mutual corruption allegations remain a bit of a sideshow to the main electoral event, largely because most voters in Brazil wearily admit that there is likely more than a grain of truth to the allegations. Of greater concern to Brazilians is the future of the social programs that have lifted more than 30 million from poverty over the last decade and the ability of the next government to restart job-generating growth in the country's moribund economy. Despite the warnings from Rousseff that the opposition would end social programs or Neves' claims that the PT will cause them to collapse through mismanagement, the reality is that both candidates are deeply committed to strengthening and deepening the social safety net that has been transforming Brazil over the last two decades. Where they differ is in how they will go about funding it, which has important implications for the direction Brazil will take over the next four years.
Voters face a classic choice between the left and the right. For the last 12 years the PT presidencies of Lula da Silva (2003-2010) and Rousseff (2011-present) have pursued an increasingly statist approach to national development. As Rousseff has repeatedly emphasized during her campaign the PT gives primacy to advancing social inclusion – badly needed in Brazil – over economic orthodoxy, creating an either/or division contested by many Brazilian analysts. Social programs launched during the last PSDB presidency of Fernando Henrique Cardoso from 1995-2002 were consolidated and then expanded by the PT, most notably under the umbrella of the conditional cash transfer program Bolsa Familia. The bill was paid through the two main avenues of taxation on consumer goods and the strategic manipulation of state-controlled assets and large public spending campaigns.
The critique delivered by Neves is twofold. While the PT's social policies have delivered laudable results, they are not sustainable in the current economic climate. Exacerbating matters is the government's failure to deliver in key areas such as healthcare, education and infrastructure provision – the same policy areas that led to mass street protests in June 2013. Inflationary pressures, an old public enemy, also seem to be back, with rates currently above the Central Bank's target ceiling of 6.5 per cent and rising.
The PSDB plan is to bring mainstream conceptions of economic rationality and responsibility back to government decision-making. In particular, Neves wants to reduce the state's role in the economy and focus on creating the conditions that will allow a rise in the private investment levels, which will result in more job creation and restart growth. He also wants to end what his party labels an ideologised foreign policy that has prevented Brazil from signing new trade deals both in the hemisphere and globally, failures that he claims are strangling the national economy.
With the easy growth days of the commodity boom now a fond and fading memory, Brazilians are faced with a difficult choice about how they want to see their country governed. Rousseff's social inclusion approach has soaring popularity in the poorest parts of the country, particularly the North-east, while Neves' economic growth approach is resonating most strongly with the richer areas that have a rising middle class. For Brazilians the choices are stark and divisive with the most recent polls pointing to an almost dead heat between the candidates. The direction that Brazil will take for the next four years will only begin to become apparent a few hours after voting ends on Sunday night.
Dr Sean W Burges is deputy director of the Australian National Centre for Latin American Studies at the Australian National University.
Patrick Carvalho is a lecturer in the Research School of Economics at the Australian National University.
The authors will be providing a series of briefings in Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra on the implications of the election result. Details at www.anclas.anu.edu.au.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/brazils-stark-electoral-choices-20141024-11ad96.html#ixzz3H81Xz0zi