International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence, 2021
The authoritarian impulse has characterized human governance through most of recorded history, an... more The authoritarian impulse has characterized human governance through most of recorded history, and popular resistance to the same has waxed and waned with the intellectual currents and conditions o...
ii ) This has changed the operational opportunities for transnationally operating terrorist organ... more ii ) This has changed the operational opportunities for transnationally operating terrorist organizations in Africa in general and those of Salafist orientation in the Sahel in particular. The Sahel region transects Africa across the southern reaches of the Sahara and contains vast natural resources that, once developed, would offer revue streams that could, if unchecked, be siphoned off by terrorist organiza- tions.( iii ) Islamist activists in multiple varieties - from the benign to globally dangerous jihadists - are the pri- mary drivers of social mobilization across the Sahel. Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is active in the Sahel in Mali where an AQIM affiliate recently seized power in the northern half of the country and has also reached out to the Horn of Africa where al Shabab has emerged as an important Al-Qaeda affiliate in Somalia. Armed non-state actors and organizations that previously would have been isolated from one another such as Hizballah and AQIM are now m...
Book reviewed: A High Price: The Triumphs and Failures of Israeli Counterterrorism / by Daniel B... more Book reviewed: A High Price: The Triumphs and Failures of Israeli Counterterrorism / by Daniel Byman (Oxford University Press, 2011,) 496 pp.
There is a gap in the existing literature on Hizballah which has rarely been examined: Hizballah ... more There is a gap in the existing literature on Hizballah which has rarely been examined: Hizballah and Iran’s recent roles in Africa. The African continent, particularly countries below the Sahara, is characterized by a large number of failed states and/or effectively ungoverned regions. Hizballah exploited the opportunity presented there to create strategic depth for the organisation in Africa. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC - Sepahe Padan-e Inqilal-e Islami, Pasdaran), allied with Hizballah, utilizes the strategic space Africa affords to advance Iranian national objectives. Given the expanding US presence on the continent in pursuit of international Salafi jihadists affiliated to Al-Qaeda, it is worthwhile also to take note of the history of Hizballah’ role and recent activities and those of Iran in Africa.
Hizballah views Iran's theocratic doctrine of clerical rule (velayat-e-faqih) as their marja ... more Hizballah views Iran's theocratic doctrine of clerical rule (velayat-e-faqih) as their marja ('source of emulation'). This theocratic marja undergirds Hizballah's malevolent Islamicism which is rooted in Lebanon's Bekka valley. The valley is both anchor and heart of Hizballah and precipitates the regions drift toward Iran.
International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence, 2018
In many ways Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s Islamic State (ISIS, ISIL, IS, or Daesh) is the real successo... more In many ways Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s Islamic State (ISIS, ISIL, IS, or Daesh) is the real successor to al-Qaeda. A natural outgrowth of the Iraqi Salafi organization, it was created by Abu Masoud al-Zarqawi’s al-Qaeda in the Country of the Two Rivers (Tanzim Qaidat al-Jihad fi Bilad alRafidayn) following the 2003 American invasion of Iraq. The master narrative of al-Baghdadi’s Caliphate envisioned an imminent apocalypse wherein the Shahada-inscribed black banners of mighty men with long hair and beards would ride to Dabiq and break the Cross of Rome in fulfillment of the Hadiths. The dream intrinsic to this narrative motivated many who pledged allegiance to the Caliphate. The former Iraqi Ba’athist Haji al-Bakr (Samir Abd Muhammed al-Khlifawi) is generally credited with originating the Islamic State concept. Al-Bakr’s proposed security state exploited the vision of a Salafist Caliphate to establish a particularly violent but otherwise straightforward police state. Al-Bakr supposedly modeled this Islamic State concept on the East German Stasi state as reduced and articulated in a thirty-page document which, when “discovered,” was published by Spiegel Online. none defined
International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence, 2019
Counterintelligence disciplines are, by their nature, more obscure than the larger community of a... more Counterintelligence disciplines are, by their nature, more obscure than the larger community of analytic disciplines. Only very few professionals such as Michelle Van Cleave, John Ehrman and Cynthia Grabo have open literature materials with a primary focus on counterintelligence. Iranian counterintelligence activity remains almost unspoken leaving a significant gap in the open literature. In contrast to democratic countries where intelligence organs are configured to inform the decision-making process of political leaders Near Eastern intelligence organizations often pursue different purposes. In many Arab countries multiple Mukhābarāts are structured for the dual purpose of repressing popular dissent and preventing any coup d'état. Consequently, the foundation of many such Mukhābarāts is regime preservation rather than educating political decision-makers. Iranian intelligence and counterintelligence organs share similarities of purpose with the Arab Mukhābarāts while having distinctive permutations drawn from Persian sociology and the history of Iran.
International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence, 2016
Historically, an observer could be forgiven for thinking that the art of fortune telling had been... more Historically, an observer could be forgiven for thinking that the art of fortune telling had been disguised by scientism and sold to national policymakers using descriptions like Estimative Intelligence, Long Range Analysis, and Strategic Futures. Policymakers, even when they should know better, harbor expectations that intelligence organizations should somehow accurately predict future events. The ability to predict phenomena relevant to foreign intelligence in the second half of the twentieth century was limited by a paucity of analytic methodologies, quantified data, and information technologies that could effectively exploit the data. Nonetheless, when compared to Cold War-era equivalents the newer analytic disciplines, improvements in analytic standards and methodologies, and advances in computational technologies are enhancing the scientific validity and reliability of Intelligence Community (IC) products. This generational shift in analytic rigor was codified in Intelligence Community Directive 203. In this environment of enhanced analytical rigor the concept of Anticipatory Intelligence incorporating elements of Geospatial, Activity Based Intelligence, and Predictive Analytics generates analysis by constructing a range of likely developmental scenarios incorporating higher confidence levels than
The Arab Spring is finally bringing down the House of Assad. The collapse of the Assad dynasty po... more The Arab Spring is finally bringing down the House of Assad. The collapse of the Assad dynasty portends either a successor government holding sway over the whole of the country or, as in late twentieth century Lebanon, ethno-religious cantons ruling definable geographic fractions of the country perhaps under a façade of central governance. Such alternatives, whatever their exact permutations suggest Syria will continue to struggle for stability
There is a gap in the existing literature on Hizballah which has rarely been examined: Hizballah ... more There is a gap in the existing literature on Hizballah which has rarely been examined: Hizballah and Iran’s recent roles in Africa. The African continent, particularly countries below the Sahara, is characterized by a large number of failed states and/or effectively ungoverned regions. Hizballah exploited the opportunity presented there to create strategic depth for the organisation in Africa. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC - Sepahe Padan-e Inqilal-e Islami, Pasdaran), allied with Hizballah, utilizes the strategic space Africa affords to advance Iranian national objectives. Given the expanding US presence on the continent in pursuit of international Salafi jihadists affiliated to Al-Qaeda, it is worthwhile also to take note of the history of Hizballah’ role and recent activities and those of Iran in Africa.
The modern borders of Near Eastern states stretching across the Levant reflect little more than a... more The modern borders of Near Eastern states stretching across the Levant reflect little more than arbitrary remnants of 19th century Western politics. Sometimes with intentionality European colonial powers drew borders that ignored ethnic groups and natural boundaries creating a politically unstable sectarian and geographic admixture. That unstable admixture exploded with the boiling ambition of both secular revolutionaries and Sunni Islamists into civil war as the Arab Spring rolled across Syria
Hezbollah’s intervention in the Syrian Civil War has forever changed the character of the organiz... more Hezbollah’s intervention in the Syrian Civil War has forever changed the character of the organization. Once rooted in lifting the Shi’a of Lebanon to their rightful place in the Lebanese political system, Hezbollah now fights for the Syrian dictator in what has become a war against the Sunnis.
The many actors stoking the long smoldering Syrian Civil War have now seen the conflict explode, ... more The many actors stoking the long smoldering Syrian Civil War have now seen the conflict explode, following the Bashar al-Assad regime’s employment of sarin gas to stall the rebel advance in the Ghouta suburbs of Damascus. The objective of the US administration to calibrate its now delayed response to Assad’s use of nerve gas, in a way that maintains the current stalemate within the Syria while enhancing the Obama administration's political credibility, is likely lost to realities on the Syrian landscape
International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence, 2021
The authoritarian impulse has characterized human governance through most of recorded history, an... more The authoritarian impulse has characterized human governance through most of recorded history, and popular resistance to the same has waxed and waned with the intellectual currents and conditions o...
ii ) This has changed the operational opportunities for transnationally operating terrorist organ... more ii ) This has changed the operational opportunities for transnationally operating terrorist organizations in Africa in general and those of Salafist orientation in the Sahel in particular. The Sahel region transects Africa across the southern reaches of the Sahara and contains vast natural resources that, once developed, would offer revue streams that could, if unchecked, be siphoned off by terrorist organiza- tions.( iii ) Islamist activists in multiple varieties - from the benign to globally dangerous jihadists - are the pri- mary drivers of social mobilization across the Sahel. Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is active in the Sahel in Mali where an AQIM affiliate recently seized power in the northern half of the country and has also reached out to the Horn of Africa where al Shabab has emerged as an important Al-Qaeda affiliate in Somalia. Armed non-state actors and organizations that previously would have been isolated from one another such as Hizballah and AQIM are now m...
Book reviewed: A High Price: The Triumphs and Failures of Israeli Counterterrorism / by Daniel B... more Book reviewed: A High Price: The Triumphs and Failures of Israeli Counterterrorism / by Daniel Byman (Oxford University Press, 2011,) 496 pp.
There is a gap in the existing literature on Hizballah which has rarely been examined: Hizballah ... more There is a gap in the existing literature on Hizballah which has rarely been examined: Hizballah and Iran’s recent roles in Africa. The African continent, particularly countries below the Sahara, is characterized by a large number of failed states and/or effectively ungoverned regions. Hizballah exploited the opportunity presented there to create strategic depth for the organisation in Africa. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC - Sepahe Padan-e Inqilal-e Islami, Pasdaran), allied with Hizballah, utilizes the strategic space Africa affords to advance Iranian national objectives. Given the expanding US presence on the continent in pursuit of international Salafi jihadists affiliated to Al-Qaeda, it is worthwhile also to take note of the history of Hizballah’ role and recent activities and those of Iran in Africa.
Hizballah views Iran's theocratic doctrine of clerical rule (velayat-e-faqih) as their marja ... more Hizballah views Iran's theocratic doctrine of clerical rule (velayat-e-faqih) as their marja ('source of emulation'). This theocratic marja undergirds Hizballah's malevolent Islamicism which is rooted in Lebanon's Bekka valley. The valley is both anchor and heart of Hizballah and precipitates the regions drift toward Iran.
International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence, 2018
In many ways Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s Islamic State (ISIS, ISIL, IS, or Daesh) is the real successo... more In many ways Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s Islamic State (ISIS, ISIL, IS, or Daesh) is the real successor to al-Qaeda. A natural outgrowth of the Iraqi Salafi organization, it was created by Abu Masoud al-Zarqawi’s al-Qaeda in the Country of the Two Rivers (Tanzim Qaidat al-Jihad fi Bilad alRafidayn) following the 2003 American invasion of Iraq. The master narrative of al-Baghdadi’s Caliphate envisioned an imminent apocalypse wherein the Shahada-inscribed black banners of mighty men with long hair and beards would ride to Dabiq and break the Cross of Rome in fulfillment of the Hadiths. The dream intrinsic to this narrative motivated many who pledged allegiance to the Caliphate. The former Iraqi Ba’athist Haji al-Bakr (Samir Abd Muhammed al-Khlifawi) is generally credited with originating the Islamic State concept. Al-Bakr’s proposed security state exploited the vision of a Salafist Caliphate to establish a particularly violent but otherwise straightforward police state. Al-Bakr supposedly modeled this Islamic State concept on the East German Stasi state as reduced and articulated in a thirty-page document which, when “discovered,” was published by Spiegel Online. none defined
International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence, 2019
Counterintelligence disciplines are, by their nature, more obscure than the larger community of a... more Counterintelligence disciplines are, by their nature, more obscure than the larger community of analytic disciplines. Only very few professionals such as Michelle Van Cleave, John Ehrman and Cynthia Grabo have open literature materials with a primary focus on counterintelligence. Iranian counterintelligence activity remains almost unspoken leaving a significant gap in the open literature. In contrast to democratic countries where intelligence organs are configured to inform the decision-making process of political leaders Near Eastern intelligence organizations often pursue different purposes. In many Arab countries multiple Mukhābarāts are structured for the dual purpose of repressing popular dissent and preventing any coup d'état. Consequently, the foundation of many such Mukhābarāts is regime preservation rather than educating political decision-makers. Iranian intelligence and counterintelligence organs share similarities of purpose with the Arab Mukhābarāts while having distinctive permutations drawn from Persian sociology and the history of Iran.
International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence, 2016
Historically, an observer could be forgiven for thinking that the art of fortune telling had been... more Historically, an observer could be forgiven for thinking that the art of fortune telling had been disguised by scientism and sold to national policymakers using descriptions like Estimative Intelligence, Long Range Analysis, and Strategic Futures. Policymakers, even when they should know better, harbor expectations that intelligence organizations should somehow accurately predict future events. The ability to predict phenomena relevant to foreign intelligence in the second half of the twentieth century was limited by a paucity of analytic methodologies, quantified data, and information technologies that could effectively exploit the data. Nonetheless, when compared to Cold War-era equivalents the newer analytic disciplines, improvements in analytic standards and methodologies, and advances in computational technologies are enhancing the scientific validity and reliability of Intelligence Community (IC) products. This generational shift in analytic rigor was codified in Intelligence Community Directive 203. In this environment of enhanced analytical rigor the concept of Anticipatory Intelligence incorporating elements of Geospatial, Activity Based Intelligence, and Predictive Analytics generates analysis by constructing a range of likely developmental scenarios incorporating higher confidence levels than
The Arab Spring is finally bringing down the House of Assad. The collapse of the Assad dynasty po... more The Arab Spring is finally bringing down the House of Assad. The collapse of the Assad dynasty portends either a successor government holding sway over the whole of the country or, as in late twentieth century Lebanon, ethno-religious cantons ruling definable geographic fractions of the country perhaps under a façade of central governance. Such alternatives, whatever their exact permutations suggest Syria will continue to struggle for stability
There is a gap in the existing literature on Hizballah which has rarely been examined: Hizballah ... more There is a gap in the existing literature on Hizballah which has rarely been examined: Hizballah and Iran’s recent roles in Africa. The African continent, particularly countries below the Sahara, is characterized by a large number of failed states and/or effectively ungoverned regions. Hizballah exploited the opportunity presented there to create strategic depth for the organisation in Africa. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC - Sepahe Padan-e Inqilal-e Islami, Pasdaran), allied with Hizballah, utilizes the strategic space Africa affords to advance Iranian national objectives. Given the expanding US presence on the continent in pursuit of international Salafi jihadists affiliated to Al-Qaeda, it is worthwhile also to take note of the history of Hizballah’ role and recent activities and those of Iran in Africa.
The modern borders of Near Eastern states stretching across the Levant reflect little more than a... more The modern borders of Near Eastern states stretching across the Levant reflect little more than arbitrary remnants of 19th century Western politics. Sometimes with intentionality European colonial powers drew borders that ignored ethnic groups and natural boundaries creating a politically unstable sectarian and geographic admixture. That unstable admixture exploded with the boiling ambition of both secular revolutionaries and Sunni Islamists into civil war as the Arab Spring rolled across Syria
Hezbollah’s intervention in the Syrian Civil War has forever changed the character of the organiz... more Hezbollah’s intervention in the Syrian Civil War has forever changed the character of the organization. Once rooted in lifting the Shi’a of Lebanon to their rightful place in the Lebanese political system, Hezbollah now fights for the Syrian dictator in what has become a war against the Sunnis.
The many actors stoking the long smoldering Syrian Civil War have now seen the conflict explode, ... more The many actors stoking the long smoldering Syrian Civil War have now seen the conflict explode, following the Bashar al-Assad regime’s employment of sarin gas to stall the rebel advance in the Ghouta suburbs of Damascus. The objective of the US administration to calibrate its now delayed response to Assad’s use of nerve gas, in a way that maintains the current stalemate within the Syria while enhancing the Obama administration's political credibility, is likely lost to realities on the Syrian landscape
Journal of Advanced Military Studies Vol 11, No. 1, 2020
Review Essay of: Subordinating Intelligence: The DoD/CIA Post–Cold War Relationship. By David P.... more Review Essay of: Subordinating Intelligence: The DoD/CIA Post–Cold War Relationship. By David P. Oakley. Lexington, KY: University Press of Kentucky, 2019. Pp. 248. $50 (hardcover). Strategic Warning Intelligence: History, Challenges, and Prospects. By John A. Gentry and Joseph S. Gordon. Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press, 2019. Pp. 274. $110.95 (hardcover); $36.95 (paperback).
Neil Aggarwal, a Harvard- and Yale-trained psychiatrist, has turned his many talents to an analys... more Neil Aggarwal, a Harvard- and Yale-trained psychiatrist, has turned his many talents to an analysis of The Taliban’s Virtual Emirate emergent over the last decade. While a number of studies have been published on al-Qaeda’s virtual world and some on the Islamic State (ISIS), rather little is available on the Taliban’s cyber presence. Dr. Aggarwal utilizes his training in cultural psychiatry and medical anthropology to address this gap and does so with a depth of perspective uncommon in many analytical works.
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