ABSTRACT The Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), that generalizes the Gutenberg–Richter r... more ABSTRACT The Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), that generalizes the Gutenberg–Richter recurrence relation, has evident implications since any estimate of seismic hazard depends on the size of territory that is used for investigation, averaging, and extrapolation into the future. Therefore, the hazard may differ dramatically when scaled down to the proportion of the area of interest (e.g. a city) from the enveloping area of investigation. In fact, given the observed patterns of distributed seismic activity the results of multi-scale analysis embedded in USLE approach demonstrate that traditional estimations of seismic hazard and risks for cities and urban agglomerations are usually underestimated. Moreover, the USLE approach provides a significant improvement when compared to the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, e.g. the maps resulted from the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Project (GSHAP). In this paper, we apply the USLE approach to evaluating seismic hazard and risks to population of the three territories of different size representing a sub-continental and two different regional scales of analysis, i.e. the Himalayas and surroundings, Lake Baikal, and Central China regions.
ABSTRACT For the Himalayas and neighboring regions, the maps of seismic hazard and seismic risk a... more ABSTRACT For the Himalayas and neighboring regions, the maps of seismic hazard and seismic risk are constructed with the use of the estimates for the parameters of the unified scaling law for earthquakes (USLE), in which the Gutenberg-Richter law for magnitude distribution of seismic events within a given area is applied in the modified version with allowance for linear dimensions of the area, namely, logN(M, L) = A + B (5 − M) + C logL, where N(M, L) is the expected annual number of the earthquakes with magnitude M in the area with linear dimension L. The spatial variations in the parameters A, B, and C for the Himalayas and adjacent regions are studied on two time intervals from 1965 to 2011 and from 1980 to 2011. The difference in A, B, and C between these two time intervals indicates that seismic activity experiences significant variations on a scale of a few decades. With a global consideration of the seismic belts of the Earth overall, the estimates of coefficient A, which determines the logarithm of the annual average frequency of the earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.0 and higher in the zone with a linear dimension of 1 degree of the Earth’s meridian, differ by a factor of 30 and more and mainly fall in the interval from −1.1 to 0.5. The values of coefficient B, which describes the balance between the number of earthquakes with different magnitudes, gravitate to 0.9 and range from less than 0.6 to 1.1 and higher. The values of coefficient C, which estimates the fractal dimension of the local distribution of epicenters, vary from 0.5 to 1.4 and higher. In the Himalayas and neighboring regions, the USLE coefficients mainly fall in the intervals of −1.1 to 0.3 for A, 0.8 to 1.3 for B, and 1.0 to 1.4 for C. The calculations of the local value of the expected peak ground acceleration (PGA) from the maximal expected magnitude provided the necessary basis for mapping the seismic hazards in the studied region. When doing this, we used the local estimates of the magnitudes which, according to USLE, corresponded to the probability of exceedance 1% and 10% during 50 years or, if the reliable estimate is absent, the maximal magnitudes reported during the instrumental period. As a result, the seismic hazard maps for the Himalayas and the adjacent regions in terms of standard seismic zoning were constructed. Based on these calculations, in order to exemplify the method, we present a series of seismic risk maps taking into account the population density prone to seismic hazard and the dependence of the risk on the vulnerability as a function of population density.
ABSTRACT solution has been found with the help of finite element method and the results are discu... more ABSTRACT solution has been found with the help of finite element method and the results are discussed for temperature distribution, radial displacement, radial stress and hoop stress in the cylinder. In the absence of the relaxation times and magnetic field, our results coincide with the classical theory of the generalized thermoelasticity. The graphical results indicate the effect of nonhomogeneity is very pronounced and the comparison of G-L theory and L-S theory has been discussed.
ABSTRACT Earthquakes constitute among the most feared natural hazards and these occur with no war... more ABSTRACT Earthquakes constitute among the most feared natural hazards and these occur with no warning which can result in great destruction and loss of lives, particularly in developing countries. One way to mitigate the destructive impact of such earthquakes is to conduct a seismic hazard assessment and take remedial measures. This article aims at demonstrating significant contributions in the field of seismic zonation and microzonation studies in the Indian subcontinent. The contributions in the field of earthquake hazard have been very valuable and beneficial not only for science but also for society. The historical seismicity and seismic zonation studies as well as the present scenario of seismic hazard assessment in the Indian subcontinent, whether through probabilistic or deterministic approaches, are discussed. It has been found that many parts of the Himalayan region have peak acceleration values exceeding 0.6g. The epicentral areas of the great Assam earthquakes of 1897 and 1950 in northeast India represent the maximum hazard with acceleration values reaching 1.2–1.3g. The peak velocity and displacement in the same region is estimated as 120–177 cm s71 and 60–90 cm, respectively. To mitigate seismic risk, it is necessary to define a correct response in terms of both peak ground acceleration and spectral amplification. These factors are highly dependent on local soil conditions and on the source characteristics of the expected earthquakes. This article will also present the findings of site-specific hazard assessment in megacities.
ABSTRACT In 1992 seismogenic nodes prone for earthquakes 6.5+ have been recognized for the Himala... more ABSTRACT In 1992 seismogenic nodes prone for earthquakes 6.5+ have been recognized for the Himalayan arc using the pattern recognition approach. Since then four earthquakes of the target magnitudes occurred in the region. The paper discusses the correlation of the events occurred in the region after 1992 with nodes previously defined as having potential for the occurrence of earthquakes M6.5+. The analysis performed has shown that three out of four earthquakes M6.5+ occurred at recognized seismogenic nodes capable of M6.5+.
In Part I, the list of publications appearing in SCI journals during 1992-2002 is presented. In t... more In Part I, the list of publications appearing in SCI journals during 1992-2002 is presented. In the last 11 years (1992-2002), 78 SCI publications were registered (according to the Web of Science). The scientific productivity works out to an average of 0.58 SCI publications/scientist/year in the eleven year period from 1992-2002. This is better than the CSIR average for 2001 (= 0.34). This figure of 0.58 for C-MMACS indicates that C-MMACS is one of the top ten labs of the CSIR if this index is used. Also, in recent years, C-MMACS is ...
Аннотация The project addressed the problem of pre-disaster orientation: hazard prediction, risk ... more Аннотация The project addressed the problem of pre-disaster orientation: hazard prediction, risk assessment, and hazard mapping, in connection with seismic activity and man-induced vibrations. The definition of realistic seismic input has been obtained from ...
ABSTRACT The Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), that generalizes the Gutenberg–Richter r... more ABSTRACT The Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), that generalizes the Gutenberg–Richter recurrence relation, has evident implications since any estimate of seismic hazard depends on the size of territory that is used for investigation, averaging, and extrapolation into the future. Therefore, the hazard may differ dramatically when scaled down to the proportion of the area of interest (e.g. a city) from the enveloping area of investigation. In fact, given the observed patterns of distributed seismic activity the results of multi-scale analysis embedded in USLE approach demonstrate that traditional estimations of seismic hazard and risks for cities and urban agglomerations are usually underestimated. Moreover, the USLE approach provides a significant improvement when compared to the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, e.g. the maps resulted from the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Project (GSHAP). In this paper, we apply the USLE approach to evaluating seismic hazard and risks to population of the three territories of different size representing a sub-continental and two different regional scales of analysis, i.e. the Himalayas and surroundings, Lake Baikal, and Central China regions.
ABSTRACT For the Himalayas and neighboring regions, the maps of seismic hazard and seismic risk a... more ABSTRACT For the Himalayas and neighboring regions, the maps of seismic hazard and seismic risk are constructed with the use of the estimates for the parameters of the unified scaling law for earthquakes (USLE), in which the Gutenberg-Richter law for magnitude distribution of seismic events within a given area is applied in the modified version with allowance for linear dimensions of the area, namely, logN(M, L) = A + B (5 − M) + C logL, where N(M, L) is the expected annual number of the earthquakes with magnitude M in the area with linear dimension L. The spatial variations in the parameters A, B, and C for the Himalayas and adjacent regions are studied on two time intervals from 1965 to 2011 and from 1980 to 2011. The difference in A, B, and C between these two time intervals indicates that seismic activity experiences significant variations on a scale of a few decades. With a global consideration of the seismic belts of the Earth overall, the estimates of coefficient A, which determines the logarithm of the annual average frequency of the earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.0 and higher in the zone with a linear dimension of 1 degree of the Earth’s meridian, differ by a factor of 30 and more and mainly fall in the interval from −1.1 to 0.5. The values of coefficient B, which describes the balance between the number of earthquakes with different magnitudes, gravitate to 0.9 and range from less than 0.6 to 1.1 and higher. The values of coefficient C, which estimates the fractal dimension of the local distribution of epicenters, vary from 0.5 to 1.4 and higher. In the Himalayas and neighboring regions, the USLE coefficients mainly fall in the intervals of −1.1 to 0.3 for A, 0.8 to 1.3 for B, and 1.0 to 1.4 for C. The calculations of the local value of the expected peak ground acceleration (PGA) from the maximal expected magnitude provided the necessary basis for mapping the seismic hazards in the studied region. When doing this, we used the local estimates of the magnitudes which, according to USLE, corresponded to the probability of exceedance 1% and 10% during 50 years or, if the reliable estimate is absent, the maximal magnitudes reported during the instrumental period. As a result, the seismic hazard maps for the Himalayas and the adjacent regions in terms of standard seismic zoning were constructed. Based on these calculations, in order to exemplify the method, we present a series of seismic risk maps taking into account the population density prone to seismic hazard and the dependence of the risk on the vulnerability as a function of population density.
ABSTRACT solution has been found with the help of finite element method and the results are discu... more ABSTRACT solution has been found with the help of finite element method and the results are discussed for temperature distribution, radial displacement, radial stress and hoop stress in the cylinder. In the absence of the relaxation times and magnetic field, our results coincide with the classical theory of the generalized thermoelasticity. The graphical results indicate the effect of nonhomogeneity is very pronounced and the comparison of G-L theory and L-S theory has been discussed.
ABSTRACT Earthquakes constitute among the most feared natural hazards and these occur with no war... more ABSTRACT Earthquakes constitute among the most feared natural hazards and these occur with no warning which can result in great destruction and loss of lives, particularly in developing countries. One way to mitigate the destructive impact of such earthquakes is to conduct a seismic hazard assessment and take remedial measures. This article aims at demonstrating significant contributions in the field of seismic zonation and microzonation studies in the Indian subcontinent. The contributions in the field of earthquake hazard have been very valuable and beneficial not only for science but also for society. The historical seismicity and seismic zonation studies as well as the present scenario of seismic hazard assessment in the Indian subcontinent, whether through probabilistic or deterministic approaches, are discussed. It has been found that many parts of the Himalayan region have peak acceleration values exceeding 0.6g. The epicentral areas of the great Assam earthquakes of 1897 and 1950 in northeast India represent the maximum hazard with acceleration values reaching 1.2–1.3g. The peak velocity and displacement in the same region is estimated as 120–177 cm s71 and 60–90 cm, respectively. To mitigate seismic risk, it is necessary to define a correct response in terms of both peak ground acceleration and spectral amplification. These factors are highly dependent on local soil conditions and on the source characteristics of the expected earthquakes. This article will also present the findings of site-specific hazard assessment in megacities.
ABSTRACT In 1992 seismogenic nodes prone for earthquakes 6.5+ have been recognized for the Himala... more ABSTRACT In 1992 seismogenic nodes prone for earthquakes 6.5+ have been recognized for the Himalayan arc using the pattern recognition approach. Since then four earthquakes of the target magnitudes occurred in the region. The paper discusses the correlation of the events occurred in the region after 1992 with nodes previously defined as having potential for the occurrence of earthquakes M6.5+. The analysis performed has shown that three out of four earthquakes M6.5+ occurred at recognized seismogenic nodes capable of M6.5+.
In Part I, the list of publications appearing in SCI journals during 1992-2002 is presented. In t... more In Part I, the list of publications appearing in SCI journals during 1992-2002 is presented. In the last 11 years (1992-2002), 78 SCI publications were registered (according to the Web of Science). The scientific productivity works out to an average of 0.58 SCI publications/scientist/year in the eleven year period from 1992-2002. This is better than the CSIR average for 2001 (= 0.34). This figure of 0.58 for C-MMACS indicates that C-MMACS is one of the top ten labs of the CSIR if this index is used. Also, in recent years, C-MMACS is ...
Аннотация The project addressed the problem of pre-disaster orientation: hazard prediction, risk ... more Аннотация The project addressed the problem of pre-disaster orientation: hazard prediction, risk assessment, and hazard mapping, in connection with seismic activity and man-induced vibrations. The definition of realistic seismic input has been obtained from ...
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Papers by Imtiyaz A. Parvez