Die Erde; Zeitschrift der Gesellschaft für Erdkunde zu Berlin
Urban areas are hot spots, contributing to climate change on multiple scales; but they are simult... more Urban areas are hot spots, contributing to climate change on multiple scales; but they are simultaneously affected by and most vulnerable to the effects of climate change due to their high density of susceptible population, their often risk-aggravating environmental conditions and low socio-economic standards (Grimm et al. 2008, Kraas 2007). The changes in climate may have a severe impact on human illness and mortality and are likely to produce a sustained change in the occurrence and spatial distribution of diseases. Although the relationship between temperature and human health has been studied for several regions and cities in the developed world, there is still little knowledge about the atmospheric influences on the burden of disease in developing countries, in particular tropical climates. However, the increase in the speed and extent of worldwide urbanisation, often referred to as ‘urban turn’, is leading to the emergence of so-called megacities, more than three-quarters of w...
It has been shown that elevated temperature can exert adverse effects on human health and well-be... more It has been shown that elevated temperature can exert adverse effects on human health and well-being. Especially increased levels of mortality during periods of extreme heat have been highlighted in the literature. Several studies have shown that different cities and population groups exhibit different responses to heat. The underlying reasons for these differences are only partially understood. The demographic composition as well as the spatial structure, the degree of urbanisation, population density or the urban design and morphology might be crucial in shaping the atmospheric effect. Given the superimposed urban heat island effect, urban areas seem to be particularly vulnerable toward heat stress. The shape and magnitude of the urban heat island is rather heterogeneously developed throughout the urban landscape. While bigger and more densely build and populated urban areas generally show higher excess temperatures compared to their rural surroundings, there are also intra-city s...
Climate change is expected to have an impact on meteorological and therefore hydrological extreme... more Climate change is expected to have an impact on meteorological and therefore hydrological extremes, thereby possibly altering the vulnerability of exposed populations. Our study focuses on Bangladesh, which is particularly vulnerable to changes in extremes due to both the large population at risk, as well as geographical characteristics such as the low-rising slope of the country through which the outflow of the combined catchments of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers (GBM, ~1.75 million km2) is channeled. Time series of daily discharge and water level data for the past 100 years were analyzed with respect to trends in frequency, magnitude and duration, focusing on rare but particularly high-risk events using extreme-value theory. Mortality data is available for a five-year period (2003-2007), with a distributed lag non-linear model used to examine possible connections between extreme water levels and mortality. Then, using output from the Community Climate System Model CCSM...
International journal of environmental research and public health, 2015
Climate change is expected to impact flooding in many highly populated coastal regions, including... more Climate change is expected to impact flooding in many highly populated coastal regions, including Dhaka (Bangladesh), which is currently among the fastest growing cities in the world. In the past, high mortality counts have been associated with extreme flood events. We first analyzed daily water levels of the past 100 years in order to detect potential shifts in extremes. A distributed lag non-linear model was then used to examine the connection between water levels and mortality. Results indicate that for the period of 2003-2007, which entails two major flood events in 2004 and 2007, high water levels do not lead to a significant increase in relative mortality, which indicates a good level of adaptation and capacity to cope with flooding. However, following low water levels, an increase in mortality could be found. As our trend analysis of past water levels shows that minimum water levels have decreased during the past 100 years, action should be taken to ensure that the exposed po...
Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 2014
Research in the field of atmospheric science and epidemiology has long recognized the health effe... more Research in the field of atmospheric science and epidemiology has long recognized the health effects of seasonal and meteorological conditions. However, little scientific knowledge exists to date about the impacts of atmospheric parameters on human mortality in tropical regions. Working within the scope of this systematic review, this investigation conducted a literature search using different databases; original research articles were chosen according to pre-defined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Both seasonal and meteorological effects were considered. The findings suggest that high amounts of rainfall and increasing temperatures cause a seasonal excess in infectious disease mortality and are therefore relevant in regions and populations in which such diseases are prevalent. On the contrary, moderately low and very high temperatures exercise an adverse effect on cardio-respiratory mortality and shape the mortality pattern in areas and sub-groups in which these diseases are domi...
This study assessed the effect of temperature and thermal atmospheric conditions on all-cause and... more This study assessed the effect of temperature and thermal atmospheric conditions on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in Bangladesh. In particular, differences in the response to elevated temperatures between urban and rural areas were investigated. Generalized additive models (GAMs) for daily death counts, adjusted for trend, season, day of the month and age were separately fitted for urban and rural areas. Breakpoint models were applied for determining the increase in mortality above and below a threshold (equivalent) temperature. Generally, a 'V'-shaped (equivalent) temperature-mortality curve with increasing mortality at low and high temperatures was observed. Particularly, urban areas suffered from heat-related mortality with a steep increase above a specific threshold. This adverse heat effect may well increase with ongoing urbanization and the intensification of the urban heat island due to the densification of building structures. Moreover, rising temperatures due to climate change could aggravate thermal stress.
There is substantial evidence that both temperature and air pollution are predictors of mortality... more There is substantial evidence that both temperature and air pollution are predictors of mortality. Thus far, few studies have focused on the potential interactive effects between the thermal environment and different measures of air pollution. Such interactions, however, are biologically plausible, as (extreme) temperature or increased air pollution might make individuals more susceptible to the effects of each respective predictor. This study investigated the interactive effects between equivalent temperature and air pollution (ozone and particulate matter) in Berlin (Germany) and Lisbon (Portugal) using different types of Poisson regression models. The findings suggest that interactive effects exist between air pollutants and equivalent temperature. Bivariate response surface models and generalised additive models (GAMs) including interaction terms showed an increased risk of mortality during periods of elevated equivalent temperatures and air pollution. Cold effects were mostly unaffected by air pollution. The study underscores the importance of air pollution control in mitigating heat effects.
Die Erde; Zeitschrift der Gesellschaft für Erdkunde zu Berlin
Urban areas are hot spots, contributing to climate change on multiple scales; but they are simult... more Urban areas are hot spots, contributing to climate change on multiple scales; but they are simultaneously affected by and most vulnerable to the effects of climate change due to their high density of susceptible population, their often risk-aggravating environmental conditions and low socio-economic standards (Grimm et al. 2008, Kraas 2007). The changes in climate may have a severe impact on human illness and mortality and are likely to produce a sustained change in the occurrence and spatial distribution of diseases. Although the relationship between temperature and human health has been studied for several regions and cities in the developed world, there is still little knowledge about the atmospheric influences on the burden of disease in developing countries, in particular tropical climates. However, the increase in the speed and extent of worldwide urbanisation, often referred to as ‘urban turn’, is leading to the emergence of so-called megacities, more than three-quarters of w...
It has been shown that elevated temperature can exert adverse effects on human health and well-be... more It has been shown that elevated temperature can exert adverse effects on human health and well-being. Especially increased levels of mortality during periods of extreme heat have been highlighted in the literature. Several studies have shown that different cities and population groups exhibit different responses to heat. The underlying reasons for these differences are only partially understood. The demographic composition as well as the spatial structure, the degree of urbanisation, population density or the urban design and morphology might be crucial in shaping the atmospheric effect. Given the superimposed urban heat island effect, urban areas seem to be particularly vulnerable toward heat stress. The shape and magnitude of the urban heat island is rather heterogeneously developed throughout the urban landscape. While bigger and more densely build and populated urban areas generally show higher excess temperatures compared to their rural surroundings, there are also intra-city s...
Climate change is expected to have an impact on meteorological and therefore hydrological extreme... more Climate change is expected to have an impact on meteorological and therefore hydrological extremes, thereby possibly altering the vulnerability of exposed populations. Our study focuses on Bangladesh, which is particularly vulnerable to changes in extremes due to both the large population at risk, as well as geographical characteristics such as the low-rising slope of the country through which the outflow of the combined catchments of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers (GBM, ~1.75 million km2) is channeled. Time series of daily discharge and water level data for the past 100 years were analyzed with respect to trends in frequency, magnitude and duration, focusing on rare but particularly high-risk events using extreme-value theory. Mortality data is available for a five-year period (2003-2007), with a distributed lag non-linear model used to examine possible connections between extreme water levels and mortality. Then, using output from the Community Climate System Model CCSM...
International journal of environmental research and public health, 2015
Climate change is expected to impact flooding in many highly populated coastal regions, including... more Climate change is expected to impact flooding in many highly populated coastal regions, including Dhaka (Bangladesh), which is currently among the fastest growing cities in the world. In the past, high mortality counts have been associated with extreme flood events. We first analyzed daily water levels of the past 100 years in order to detect potential shifts in extremes. A distributed lag non-linear model was then used to examine the connection between water levels and mortality. Results indicate that for the period of 2003-2007, which entails two major flood events in 2004 and 2007, high water levels do not lead to a significant increase in relative mortality, which indicates a good level of adaptation and capacity to cope with flooding. However, following low water levels, an increase in mortality could be found. As our trend analysis of past water levels shows that minimum water levels have decreased during the past 100 years, action should be taken to ensure that the exposed po...
Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 2014
Research in the field of atmospheric science and epidemiology has long recognized the health effe... more Research in the field of atmospheric science and epidemiology has long recognized the health effects of seasonal and meteorological conditions. However, little scientific knowledge exists to date about the impacts of atmospheric parameters on human mortality in tropical regions. Working within the scope of this systematic review, this investigation conducted a literature search using different databases; original research articles were chosen according to pre-defined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Both seasonal and meteorological effects were considered. The findings suggest that high amounts of rainfall and increasing temperatures cause a seasonal excess in infectious disease mortality and are therefore relevant in regions and populations in which such diseases are prevalent. On the contrary, moderately low and very high temperatures exercise an adverse effect on cardio-respiratory mortality and shape the mortality pattern in areas and sub-groups in which these diseases are domi...
This study assessed the effect of temperature and thermal atmospheric conditions on all-cause and... more This study assessed the effect of temperature and thermal atmospheric conditions on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in Bangladesh. In particular, differences in the response to elevated temperatures between urban and rural areas were investigated. Generalized additive models (GAMs) for daily death counts, adjusted for trend, season, day of the month and age were separately fitted for urban and rural areas. Breakpoint models were applied for determining the increase in mortality above and below a threshold (equivalent) temperature. Generally, a 'V'-shaped (equivalent) temperature-mortality curve with increasing mortality at low and high temperatures was observed. Particularly, urban areas suffered from heat-related mortality with a steep increase above a specific threshold. This adverse heat effect may well increase with ongoing urbanization and the intensification of the urban heat island due to the densification of building structures. Moreover, rising temperatures due to climate change could aggravate thermal stress.
There is substantial evidence that both temperature and air pollution are predictors of mortality... more There is substantial evidence that both temperature and air pollution are predictors of mortality. Thus far, few studies have focused on the potential interactive effects between the thermal environment and different measures of air pollution. Such interactions, however, are biologically plausible, as (extreme) temperature or increased air pollution might make individuals more susceptible to the effects of each respective predictor. This study investigated the interactive effects between equivalent temperature and air pollution (ozone and particulate matter) in Berlin (Germany) and Lisbon (Portugal) using different types of Poisson regression models. The findings suggest that interactive effects exist between air pollutants and equivalent temperature. Bivariate response surface models and generalised additive models (GAMs) including interaction terms showed an increased risk of mortality during periods of elevated equivalent temperatures and air pollution. Cold effects were mostly unaffected by air pollution. The study underscores the importance of air pollution control in mitigating heat effects.
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Papers by Katrin Burkart