Patrick F. Walsh is a former intelligence analyst who has worked in Australian national security and law enforcement agencies. He is a Professor, Intelligence and Security Studies at the Australian Graduate School of Policing and Security, Charles Sturt University, Australia. He consults to government and his research focuses on a range of intelligence capability issues including governance, leadership, intelligence and ethics, biosecurity, health security and cyber. He is the author of Intelligence and Intelligence Analysis, Routledge, UK 2011; Intelligence, Biosecurity and Bioterrorism, Palgrave Macmillan, UK, 2018; and Intelligence Leadership and Governance. Building Effective Intelligence Communities in the 21st Century, Routledge, 2020.
This paper spotlights lessons for health security intelligence across the 'Five Eyes' countries. ... more This paper spotlights lessons for health security intelligence across the 'Five Eyes' countries. The COVID-19 pandemic and recent worldwide patterns related to climate change have highlighted the crucial supporting role intelligence analysis may play in comprehending, planning for, and responding to such global health threats. In addition to the human lives lost, the COVID-19 pandemic has revealed serious national security concerns, notably for economic, societal, and in some cases, political stability. In response, a greater emphasis must be placed on intelligence. The paper has three goals. First, it outlines the major thematic areas where key 'Five Eyes' intelligence communities' (ICs) skills were tested in supporting the management of COVID-19: 1) the origins of SARS-CoV-2, 2) disinformation campaigns, and 3) early warning systems. The article then explores how such factors have impacted ICs' ability to provide decisionmaking support during COVID-19. Finally, the article discusses how 'Five Eyes' ICs may strengthen capacity in the three crucial areas. The 'Five Eyes' ICs must act swiftly but methodically to assess the security-based analytic lessons learned during the COVID-19 pandemic to maximize preparation for the next inevitable pandemic, whether caused by a natural disaster, climate change, or state or non-state threat actors.
A key lesson from 9/11 was that intelligence agencies could no longer simply wait for information... more A key lesson from 9/11 was that intelligence agencies could no longer simply wait for information to arrive. The enhanced threat from Al Qaeda and their global franchises required an extensive and ‘real-time’ collection of intelligence. This new operating environment has refashioned Australian and other Five Eyes countries, therefore, to be more active ‘hunters’ of information. This chapter examines both policy and counter-terrorism legislative landmarks underpinning intelligence collection since 9/11, and the many challenges Australian agencies have faced managing policy and legislative reform. The Australian counter-terrorism response is then compared briefly to the Canadian policy and legislative context to identify common and unique challenges by policymakers.
International Journal of Cyber Warfare and Terrorism, 2021
In this study, a data mining technique, specifically a decision tree, was applied to look at the ... more In this study, a data mining technique, specifically a decision tree, was applied to look at the similarities and differences between Islamists and Far Right extremists in the Profiles of Individual Radicalisation in the United States (PIRUS) dataset. The aim was to identify differences and similarities across various groups that may highlight overlaps and variations across both Islamists and Far Right extremists. The data mining technique analysed data in the PIRUS dataset according to the PIRUS codebook's grouping of variables. The decision tree technique generated a number of rules that provided insights about previously unknown similarities and differences between Islamists and Far Right extremists. This study demonstrates that data mining is a valuable approach for shedding light on factors and patterns related to different forms of violent extremism.
In 2017, the results of a major independent intelligence review have sparked transformational cha... more In 2017, the results of a major independent intelligence review have sparked transformational changes in Australia's National Intelligence Community (NIC). Much of this change is still underway, but less thought has been given to how reform changes to both national security and home affairs intelligence capabilities might affect existing oversight and accountability mechanisms. This article will assess how traditional oversight and accountability mechanisms of the NIC may be affected by these transformational changes and whether current mechanisms are likely to remain fit for purpose.
In 2017, the results of a major independent intelligence review have sparked transformational cha... more In 2017, the results of a major independent intelligence review have sparked transformational changes in Australia's National Intelligence Community (NIC). Much of this change is still underway, but less thought has been given to how reform changes to both national security and home affairs intelligence capabilities might affect existing oversight and accountability mechanisms. This article will assess how traditional oversight and accountability mechanisms of the NIC may be affected by these transformational changes and whether current mechanisms are likely to remain fit for purpose.
This paper spotlights lessons for health security intelligence across the 'Five Eyes' countries. ... more This paper spotlights lessons for health security intelligence across the 'Five Eyes' countries. The COVID-19 pandemic and recent worldwide patterns related to climate change have highlighted the crucial supporting role intelligence analysis may play in comprehending, planning for, and responding to such global health threats. In addition to the human lives lost, the COVID-19 pandemic has revealed serious national security concerns, notably for economic, societal, and in some cases, political stability. In response, a greater emphasis must be placed on intelligence. The paper has three goals. First, it outlines the major thematic areas where key 'Five Eyes' intelligence communities' (ICs) skills were tested in supporting the management of COVID-19: 1) the origins of SARS-CoV-2, 2) disinformation campaigns, and 3) early warning systems. The article then explores how such factors have impacted ICs' ability to provide decisionmaking support during COVID-19. Finally, the article discusses how 'Five Eyes' ICs may strengthen capacity in the three crucial areas. The 'Five Eyes' ICs must act swiftly but methodically to assess the security-based analytic lessons learned during the COVID-19 pandemic to maximize preparation for the next inevitable pandemic, whether caused by a natural disaster, climate change, or state or non-state threat actors.
A key lesson from 9/11 was that intelligence agencies could no longer simply wait for information... more A key lesson from 9/11 was that intelligence agencies could no longer simply wait for information to arrive. The enhanced threat from Al Qaeda and their global franchises required an extensive and ‘real-time’ collection of intelligence. This new operating environment has refashioned Australian and other Five Eyes countries, therefore, to be more active ‘hunters’ of information. This chapter examines both policy and counter-terrorism legislative landmarks underpinning intelligence collection since 9/11, and the many challenges Australian agencies have faced managing policy and legislative reform. The Australian counter-terrorism response is then compared briefly to the Canadian policy and legislative context to identify common and unique challenges by policymakers.
International Journal of Cyber Warfare and Terrorism, 2021
In this study, a data mining technique, specifically a decision tree, was applied to look at the ... more In this study, a data mining technique, specifically a decision tree, was applied to look at the similarities and differences between Islamists and Far Right extremists in the Profiles of Individual Radicalisation in the United States (PIRUS) dataset. The aim was to identify differences and similarities across various groups that may highlight overlaps and variations across both Islamists and Far Right extremists. The data mining technique analysed data in the PIRUS dataset according to the PIRUS codebook's grouping of variables. The decision tree technique generated a number of rules that provided insights about previously unknown similarities and differences between Islamists and Far Right extremists. This study demonstrates that data mining is a valuable approach for shedding light on factors and patterns related to different forms of violent extremism.
In 2017, the results of a major independent intelligence review have sparked transformational cha... more In 2017, the results of a major independent intelligence review have sparked transformational changes in Australia's National Intelligence Community (NIC). Much of this change is still underway, but less thought has been given to how reform changes to both national security and home affairs intelligence capabilities might affect existing oversight and accountability mechanisms. This article will assess how traditional oversight and accountability mechanisms of the NIC may be affected by these transformational changes and whether current mechanisms are likely to remain fit for purpose.
In 2017, the results of a major independent intelligence review have sparked transformational cha... more In 2017, the results of a major independent intelligence review have sparked transformational changes in Australia's National Intelligence Community (NIC). Much of this change is still underway, but less thought has been given to how reform changes to both national security and home affairs intelligence capabilities might affect existing oversight and accountability mechanisms. This article will assess how traditional oversight and accountability mechanisms of the NIC may be affected by these transformational changes and whether current mechanisms are likely to remain fit for purpose.
The Ethics of National Security Intelligence Institutions, 2024
This book explores the ethics of national security intelligence institutions operating in contemp... more This book explores the ethics of national security intelligence institutions operating in contemporary liberal democracies. Intelligence collection by agencies such as the CIA, MI6, and Mossad involves practices that are apparently inconsistent with the principles of ordinary morality-practices such as lying, spying, manipulation, and covert action. However, in the defence of national security, such practices may not only be morally permissible but may also under some circumstances be morally obligatory. One approach to the ethics of national security intelligence activity has been to draw from the just war tradition (so-called "just intelligence theory"). This book identifies significant limitations of this approach and offers a new, institutionally based, teleological normative framework. In doing so, it revises some familiar principles designed for application to kinetic wars, such as necessity and proportionality, and invokes some additional ones, such as reciprocity and trust. It goes on to explore the applications of this framework and a revised set of principles for national security intelligence institutions and practices in contemporary and emerging political and technological settings. This book will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, ethics, security studies, and international relations.
This volume examines the ethical issues that arise as a result of national security intelligence ... more This volume examines the ethical issues that arise as a result of national security intelligence collection and analysis. Powerful new technologies enable the collection, communication and analysis of national security data on an unprecedented scale. Data collection now plays a central role in intelligence practice, yet this development raises a host of ethical and national security problems, such as privacy; autonomy; threats to national security and democracy by foreign states; and accountability for liberal democracies. This volume provides a comprehensive set of in-depth ethical analyses of these problems by combining contributions from both ethics scholars and intelligence practitioners. It provides the reader with a practical understanding of relevant operations, the issues that they raise and analysis of how responses to these issues can be informed by a commitment to liberal democratic values. This combination of perspectives is crucial in providing an informed appreciation of ethical challenges that is also grounded in the realities of the practice of intelligence. This book will be of great interest to all students of intelligence studies, ethics, security studies, foreign policy and international relations.
This book explores the challenges leaders in intelligence communities face in an increasingly com... more This book explores the challenges leaders in intelligence communities face in an increasingly complex security environment and how to develop future leaders to deal with these issues. As the security and policy-making environment becomes increasingly complicated for decision-makers, the focus on intelligence agencies ‘to deliver’ more value will increase. This book is the first extensive exploration of contemporary leadership in the context of intelligence agencies, principally in the ‘Five Eyes’ nations (i.e. Australia, United States, United Kingdom, Canada and New Zealand). It provides a grounded theoretical approach to building practitioner and researcher understanding of what individual and organisational factors result in better leadership. Using interviews from former senior intelligence leaders and a survey of 208 current and former intelligence leaders, the work explores the key challenges that leaders will likely face in the twenty-first century and how to address these. It also explores what principles are most likely to be important in developing future leaders of intelligence agencies in the future.
This book will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, strategic studies, leadership studies, security studies and International Relations.
Intelligence, Biosecurity and Bioterrorism, Sep 28, 2018
This book explores how potential bio-threats and risks may evolve post 9/11 given the rapid chang... more This book explores how potential bio-threats and risks may evolve post 9/11 given the rapid changes in biotechnology and synthetic biology. It also explores what role intelligence communities can play in understanding threats and risks. It argues that although bio-threats and risks are largely low probability and high impact in nature, intelligence in ‘Five Eyes’ countries remain insufficiently prepared to understand them. This book identifies key areas where intelligence reforms need to take place including a more strategic and systematic collaboration between national security/law enforcement intelligence and the scientific community. It is aimed at intelligence analysts, those in the scientific community working on health security threats, policy makers and researchers working on biosecurity and bioterrorism threats and risks.
This paper is in two main sections. The first provides a high level strategic and policy assessme... more This paper is in two main sections. The first provides a high level strategic and policy assessment about the threats, risks and knowledge gaps at the growing interconnections between the digital and the biological worlds. The exponential growth in the global biosciences and bioeconomy over the last 20 years has generated advancements in molecular biology including synthetic biology and biotechnology and significant innovations in medicine, health, energy, and defense. 1 Nevertheless, the public and private sector must come together to enable further legitimate and interdisciplinary research and development in the wide field of biology and across the bioeconomy that is also mindful of the security dimensions associated with such activity. The second part investigates key technical, policy, legal and ethical mitigation measures that will likely impact on BCS related threats and risks. The paper concludes with a series of key recommendations for action by multilateral institutions, nations and the private sector in the global biosciences and bioeconomy.
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This book will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, strategic studies, leadership studies, security studies and International Relations.