A two storey terraced house was modelled in ESP-r with a simple window opening control strategy t... more A two storey terraced house was modelled in ESP-r with a simple window opening control strategy to represent typical dwellings found in Mexico City and the adjoining municipalities. Future weather data was generated for years in this century based on morphing methods developed from the literature and by the authors and a TMY weather file developed from historical data between 1975 to 1989 by WhiteBox Technologies. The population in the region under consideration is a little over 20 million which represents 16% of Mexico’s population. The present day climate is such that air conditioning is rarely used in single family housing. The main cooling strategy in the hottest months (Mid February to mid June) is window opening. This was modelled considering that if the interior temperature was at or above 18°C and the exterior air temperature was below the interior air temperature then windows would be open. The air flow was modelled using the flow network model within ESP-r. It was found th...
La presente investigación analiza la volatilidad de la precipitación y la temperatura en las ciud... more La presente investigación analiza la volatilidad de la precipitación y la temperatura en las ciudades mesoamericanas generadas por el cambio climático, utilizando como línea base la dinámica de las dos variables climáticas observadas mes a mes; entre 1971 a 1980 y 2001 a 2010 comparándolas con escenarios futuros de clima para los años 2061 a 2070. Las ciudades mesoamericanas utilizadas en el análisis que incluyen a las ciudades capitales de los estados del sudeste mexicano, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras y Belice. Medir la volatilidad de variables climáticas nos permite calificar si la distribución de lluvias y temperatura está por encima o por debajo de los rangos medios de la distribución histórica de estas variables. Entender la volatilidad climática, permite vislumbra una serie de escenarios de carácter técnico y político, y generar acciones concretas ante el cambio en las dinámicas climáticas de largo plazo y con ello anticiparse a los efectos de los eventos climáticos extrem...
El trabajo de investigacion abordo la tematica de la distribucion de la flora en areas naturales ... more El trabajo de investigacion abordo la tematica de la distribucion de la flora en areas naturales protegidas, a traves del desarrollo de un modelo predictivo que da pautas sobre el efecto de las caracteristicas geograficas y climaticas en la diversidad floristica existente en areas protegidas de Bolivia. Para ello utilizo el analisis de regresion en su version multiple para conocer las sinergias existentes entre los diferentes factores analizados y la distribucion de la flora. Como resultado principal se obtuvo un modelo funcional que permite predecir el potencial de especies de la flora. Palabras clave: distribucion de flora, factores geograficos, Bolivia ABSTRACT The subject of distribution of the flora in natural protected areas is developed through a predictive model. This model identifies the geographical and climatic factors that govern the distribution of the flora in the natural protected areas of Bolivia. For this purpose, the analysis of multiple regressions is used since ...
Environmental services from the perspective of the State have as a public policy objective the co... more Environmental services from the perspective of the State have as a public policy objective the conservation of natural environments as well as the coverage of plants that provide environmental services to society, while, from the owners’ point of view, decisions on the use of forests, whether through forest extraction activities or the change of land use for agricultural or urban activities, depend on the opportunity costs, the conditions of production, and access to economic resources. This chapter conceptualizes the understanding of environmental services from the economic point of view. The contrast and the workings of the payments for ecosystem services and the community forest management are analyzed; whereas in the last section, it examines the current design of ecological flows to appreciate the environmental services provided by rivers and wetlands. This is exemplified in a case study (Capulalpam de Mendez, Oaxaca). From this perspective, this chapter analyzes the current institutional framework that regulates environmental services such as the recognition of the ecological flow and the payment system for environmental services, emphasizing the contrast with the management of forest resources by forest owners and managers.
In the present article, we will describe some extensions of an agroforestry model that has been p... more In the present article, we will describe some extensions of an agroforestry model that has been proposed and computationally implemented in [7]. Our generalizations consist of the inclusion of two additional species of tree, one culture, and a declaration of regeneration tours as variables definable by us as a parameter and the weight allocation by rentability of the treeless soil utilization as well as an exhaustive exploration of the different soil utilization scenarios in order to obtain the one who gives the best economic performance.
The worldwide number of migrants has had a rapid increase during the last fifteen years. Despite ... more The worldwide number of migrants has had a rapid increase during the last fifteen years. Despite the extensive research studies that elucidate the increase in migrants' recipient countries, we know little about the relationship between the climate factors and human mobility in the countries of origin. Hence, this study focuses on the effects of weather and the propensity of individuals to leave a territory by measuring the importance of rain precipitation or the lack of it in one of the critical food corridors of Central America, formed by El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala. To study the mobility process, we develop a stochastic frontier model; the main result shows a greater propensity to migrate when there is a significant drought event in the place of origin. Some other factors that motivate people to leave their homeland are the effect of other climate events measured through the control system (ENSO), homicide levels, economic performance, and exchange rate. The findings ...
El estudio aborda la temática de los servicios ambientales desde una perspectiva de prestación de... more El estudio aborda la temática de los servicios ambientales desde una perspectiva de prestación de bienes y servicios públicos, los cuales deben estar normados y reglamentos por el Estado. Para ello se realiza una aproximación cuantitativa que da un contexto a la recomendación de política pública propuesta. Las recomendaciones de política pública tienen como eje central la conservación de coberturas vegetales que prestan servicios ambientales a la sociedad. La conservación del territorio, a través del pago del servicio ambiental es una política que atraviesa en forma transversal no sólo el contexto ambiental, sino también el contexto social; ya que se reconoce el aporte al sistema productivo de los esfuerzos de conservación y manejo de recursos de las comunidades campesinas y de los sistemas de áreas protegidas nacionales, departamentales y municipales. Palabras clave.Bolivia, pagos, recomendaciones de política pública, servicios ambientales, tenencia de la tierra. Abstract.The study...
Environmental services from the perspective of the State have as a public policy objective the co... more Environmental services from the perspective of the State have as a public policy objective the conservation of natural environments as well as the coverage of plants that provide environmental services to society, while, from the owners’ point of view, decisions on the use of forests, whether through forest extraction activities or the change of land use for agricultural or urban activities, depend on the opportunity costs, the conditions of production, and access to economic resources. This chapter conceptualizes the understanding of environmental services from the economic point of view. The contrast and the workings of the payments for ecosystem services and the community forest management are analyzed; whereas in the last section, it examines the current design of ecological flows to appreciate the environmental services provided by rivers and wetlands. This is exemplified in a case study (Capulalpam de Mendez, Oaxaca). From this perspective, this chapter analyzes the current institutional framework that regulates environmental services such as the recognition of the ecological flow and the payment system for environmental services, emphasizing the contrast with the management of forest resources by forest owners and managers.
The international journal of climate change: Impacts and responses, 2012
ABSTRACT The present study estimates the costs of disasters associated with natural phenomena in ... more ABSTRACT The present study estimates the costs of disasters associated with natural phenomena in the Central States of the Pacific Coast of Mexico and the impact of potential climate change in those states. The applied model explores the relation between mean temperature, precipitation and extreme natural phenomena (e.g. heavy rains, hurricanes and landslides) on the main agricultural areas of the region. While the results were expected to find negative effects from the extreme weather events, finding pos- itive effects from parallel hurricane and hurricane in region that made landfall near the municipality (i.e. those that were not affected by extreme rainfall) finding the importance of the phenomena within the natural structure of the region’s ecosystems. Comprehensive understanding of the total effects of these events will allow us to adapt and reduce the vulnerability of agriculture and society to “ground arrival” of these natural events. The analysis is further developed to incorporate the potential impact of climatic change that can modify the intensity of the natural phenomena. In the projections of future scenarios, one of the most relevant impacts to be considered for the implementation of public policies for adapting to climate change is the amount of food lost due to the occurrence of extreme weather events. The loss of crops for a region may represent a reduction in commercial and economic activities, and implies that large groups of small farmers [will] lose a source of revenue and subsistence foods for a complete agricultural season. Thus, to create food security policies for these regions should be part of the agenda of measures for adapting to climate change. This study provides preliminary guidelines for the development of broader and in-depth research, which could lead to mitigation actions that will allow society to adapt to the unavoidable consequences of these changes.
A two storey terraced house was modelled in ESP-r with a simple window opening control strategy t... more A two storey terraced house was modelled in ESP-r with a simple window opening control strategy to represent typical dwellings found in Mexico City and the adjoining municipalities. Future weather data was generated for years in this century based on morphing methods developed from the literature and by the authors and a TMY weather file developed from historical data between 1975 to 1989 by WhiteBox Technologies. The population in the region under consideration is a little over 20 million which represents 16% of Mexico’s population. The present day climate is such that air conditioning is rarely used in single family housing. The main cooling strategy in the hottest months (Mid February to mid June) is window opening. This was modelled considering that if the interior temperature was at or above 18°C and the exterior air temperature was below the interior air temperature then windows would be open. The air flow was modelled using the flow network model within ESP-r. It was found th...
La presente investigación analiza la volatilidad de la precipitación y la temperatura en las ciud... more La presente investigación analiza la volatilidad de la precipitación y la temperatura en las ciudades mesoamericanas generadas por el cambio climático, utilizando como línea base la dinámica de las dos variables climáticas observadas mes a mes; entre 1971 a 1980 y 2001 a 2010 comparándolas con escenarios futuros de clima para los años 2061 a 2070. Las ciudades mesoamericanas utilizadas en el análisis que incluyen a las ciudades capitales de los estados del sudeste mexicano, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras y Belice. Medir la volatilidad de variables climáticas nos permite calificar si la distribución de lluvias y temperatura está por encima o por debajo de los rangos medios de la distribución histórica de estas variables. Entender la volatilidad climática, permite vislumbra una serie de escenarios de carácter técnico y político, y generar acciones concretas ante el cambio en las dinámicas climáticas de largo plazo y con ello anticiparse a los efectos de los eventos climáticos extrem...
El trabajo de investigacion abordo la tematica de la distribucion de la flora en areas naturales ... more El trabajo de investigacion abordo la tematica de la distribucion de la flora en areas naturales protegidas, a traves del desarrollo de un modelo predictivo que da pautas sobre el efecto de las caracteristicas geograficas y climaticas en la diversidad floristica existente en areas protegidas de Bolivia. Para ello utilizo el analisis de regresion en su version multiple para conocer las sinergias existentes entre los diferentes factores analizados y la distribucion de la flora. Como resultado principal se obtuvo un modelo funcional que permite predecir el potencial de especies de la flora. Palabras clave: distribucion de flora, factores geograficos, Bolivia ABSTRACT The subject of distribution of the flora in natural protected areas is developed through a predictive model. This model identifies the geographical and climatic factors that govern the distribution of the flora in the natural protected areas of Bolivia. For this purpose, the analysis of multiple regressions is used since ...
Environmental services from the perspective of the State have as a public policy objective the co... more Environmental services from the perspective of the State have as a public policy objective the conservation of natural environments as well as the coverage of plants that provide environmental services to society, while, from the owners’ point of view, decisions on the use of forests, whether through forest extraction activities or the change of land use for agricultural or urban activities, depend on the opportunity costs, the conditions of production, and access to economic resources. This chapter conceptualizes the understanding of environmental services from the economic point of view. The contrast and the workings of the payments for ecosystem services and the community forest management are analyzed; whereas in the last section, it examines the current design of ecological flows to appreciate the environmental services provided by rivers and wetlands. This is exemplified in a case study (Capulalpam de Mendez, Oaxaca). From this perspective, this chapter analyzes the current institutional framework that regulates environmental services such as the recognition of the ecological flow and the payment system for environmental services, emphasizing the contrast with the management of forest resources by forest owners and managers.
In the present article, we will describe some extensions of an agroforestry model that has been p... more In the present article, we will describe some extensions of an agroforestry model that has been proposed and computationally implemented in [7]. Our generalizations consist of the inclusion of two additional species of tree, one culture, and a declaration of regeneration tours as variables definable by us as a parameter and the weight allocation by rentability of the treeless soil utilization as well as an exhaustive exploration of the different soil utilization scenarios in order to obtain the one who gives the best economic performance.
The worldwide number of migrants has had a rapid increase during the last fifteen years. Despite ... more The worldwide number of migrants has had a rapid increase during the last fifteen years. Despite the extensive research studies that elucidate the increase in migrants' recipient countries, we know little about the relationship between the climate factors and human mobility in the countries of origin. Hence, this study focuses on the effects of weather and the propensity of individuals to leave a territory by measuring the importance of rain precipitation or the lack of it in one of the critical food corridors of Central America, formed by El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala. To study the mobility process, we develop a stochastic frontier model; the main result shows a greater propensity to migrate when there is a significant drought event in the place of origin. Some other factors that motivate people to leave their homeland are the effect of other climate events measured through the control system (ENSO), homicide levels, economic performance, and exchange rate. The findings ...
El estudio aborda la temática de los servicios ambientales desde una perspectiva de prestación de... more El estudio aborda la temática de los servicios ambientales desde una perspectiva de prestación de bienes y servicios públicos, los cuales deben estar normados y reglamentos por el Estado. Para ello se realiza una aproximación cuantitativa que da un contexto a la recomendación de política pública propuesta. Las recomendaciones de política pública tienen como eje central la conservación de coberturas vegetales que prestan servicios ambientales a la sociedad. La conservación del territorio, a través del pago del servicio ambiental es una política que atraviesa en forma transversal no sólo el contexto ambiental, sino también el contexto social; ya que se reconoce el aporte al sistema productivo de los esfuerzos de conservación y manejo de recursos de las comunidades campesinas y de los sistemas de áreas protegidas nacionales, departamentales y municipales. Palabras clave.Bolivia, pagos, recomendaciones de política pública, servicios ambientales, tenencia de la tierra. Abstract.The study...
Environmental services from the perspective of the State have as a public policy objective the co... more Environmental services from the perspective of the State have as a public policy objective the conservation of natural environments as well as the coverage of plants that provide environmental services to society, while, from the owners’ point of view, decisions on the use of forests, whether through forest extraction activities or the change of land use for agricultural or urban activities, depend on the opportunity costs, the conditions of production, and access to economic resources. This chapter conceptualizes the understanding of environmental services from the economic point of view. The contrast and the workings of the payments for ecosystem services and the community forest management are analyzed; whereas in the last section, it examines the current design of ecological flows to appreciate the environmental services provided by rivers and wetlands. This is exemplified in a case study (Capulalpam de Mendez, Oaxaca). From this perspective, this chapter analyzes the current institutional framework that regulates environmental services such as the recognition of the ecological flow and the payment system for environmental services, emphasizing the contrast with the management of forest resources by forest owners and managers.
The international journal of climate change: Impacts and responses, 2012
ABSTRACT The present study estimates the costs of disasters associated with natural phenomena in ... more ABSTRACT The present study estimates the costs of disasters associated with natural phenomena in the Central States of the Pacific Coast of Mexico and the impact of potential climate change in those states. The applied model explores the relation between mean temperature, precipitation and extreme natural phenomena (e.g. heavy rains, hurricanes and landslides) on the main agricultural areas of the region. While the results were expected to find negative effects from the extreme weather events, finding pos- itive effects from parallel hurricane and hurricane in region that made landfall near the municipality (i.e. those that were not affected by extreme rainfall) finding the importance of the phenomena within the natural structure of the region’s ecosystems. Comprehensive understanding of the total effects of these events will allow us to adapt and reduce the vulnerability of agriculture and society to “ground arrival” of these natural events. The analysis is further developed to incorporate the potential impact of climatic change that can modify the intensity of the natural phenomena. In the projections of future scenarios, one of the most relevant impacts to be considered for the implementation of public policies for adapting to climate change is the amount of food lost due to the occurrence of extreme weather events. The loss of crops for a region may represent a reduction in commercial and economic activities, and implies that large groups of small farmers [will] lose a source of revenue and subsistence foods for a complete agricultural season. Thus, to create food security policies for these regions should be part of the agenda of measures for adapting to climate change. This study provides preliminary guidelines for the development of broader and in-depth research, which could lead to mitigation actions that will allow society to adapt to the unavoidable consequences of these changes.
Impactos Socioeconómicos del Cambio Climático en México, 2018
as consecuencias sociales y económicas de recientes desastres
naturales climatológicos en distint... more as consecuencias sociales y económicas de recientes desastres naturales climatológicos en distintas partes del planeta han evidenciado la necesidad de introducir consideraciones relacionadas con una gestión exitosa en contra de tales desastres como parte de la agenda global de combate a la pobreza. En paralelo, si bien existe incertidumbre respecto a impactos y escenarios específicos, existe un consenso generalizado de que el cambio climático traerá consigo mayor variabilidad climática, derivando en riesgos climatológicos de mayor intensidad, tales como las sequías, los huracanes y las inundaciones. México no puede ser indiferente a las tendencias anteriores. Sus costas son destino y cruce de huracanes y tormentas tropicales que se originan en el Mar Caribe y los océanos Atlántico y Pacífico. Asimismo, la sequía es un fenómeno recurrente que se extiende a lo largo de los trópicos semiáridos del país. Comprender entonces las consecuencias sociales y económicas del cambio climático y los riesgos climáticos sobre nuestro país se impone como una tarea de primer orden. El presente trabajo es una compilación de estudios que buscan atender precisamente esta necesidad, es decir, comprender los impactos sociales del cambio climático y de algunos de los riesgos asociados con dicho cambio climático en México.
Cuando una actividad económica extractiva, como la explotación
petrolera, la gran minería o la cr... more Cuando una actividad económica extractiva, como la explotación petrolera, la gran minería o la creación de grandes obras de infraestructura, como represas y carreteras, se sobreponen en uso territorial a las áreas protegidas, surge una disyuntiva entre dos necesidades prioritarias para un país en vías de desarrollo: • Generar recursos económicos en el corto plazo vía inversión extranjera y gasto en infraestructura productiva. • O conservar y proteger sus recursos naturales para las futuras generaciones. La generación de recursos en el corto plazo vía la explotación petrolera o la creación de infraestructura suelen primar en este proceso de selección. Si no existe otra opción que la coexistencia de actividades extractivas y la conservación de áreas naturales protegidas, se debe encontrar el proceso técnico que genere el menor daño al entorno natural, además de compensar en forma económica a los agentes dañados por el proceso extractivo
La comprensión y uso de los métodos cuantitativos dentro las ciencias sociales y las disciplinas ... more La comprensión y uso de los métodos cuantitativos dentro las ciencias sociales y las disciplinas aplicadas, como el diseño, permiten tener mayor información para tomar decisiones y emprender acciones encaminadas a solucionar los problemas de investigación y de carácter práctico. En el caso específico del diagnóstico de necesidades de consumo y producción basados en el usuario, la problemática a tratar engloba tanto aspectos de carácter teórico- comportamiento del usuario ante cambios en la estructura social y cultural-; así como de carácter práctico- especificaciones de diseño, fabricación y mercadeo de un producto determinado-
Uploads
Papers by Marcelo Olivera
naturales climatológicos en distintas partes del planeta
han evidenciado la necesidad de introducir consideraciones
relacionadas con una gestión exitosa en contra de tales desastres
como parte de la agenda global de combate a la pobreza.
En paralelo, si bien existe incertidumbre respecto a impactos y
escenarios específicos, existe un consenso generalizado de que
el cambio climático traerá consigo mayor variabilidad climática,
derivando en riesgos climatológicos de mayor intensidad, tales
como las sequías, los huracanes y las inundaciones.
México no puede ser indiferente a las tendencias anteriores.
Sus costas son destino y cruce de huracanes y tormentas tropicales
que se originan en el Mar Caribe y los océanos Atlántico
y Pacífico. Asimismo, la sequía es un fenómeno recurrente que
se extiende a lo largo de los trópicos semiáridos del país. Comprender
entonces las consecuencias sociales y económicas del
cambio climático y los riesgos climáticos sobre nuestro país se
impone como una tarea de primer orden.
El presente trabajo es una compilación de estudios que buscan
atender precisamente esta necesidad, es decir, comprender los impactos sociales del cambio climático y de algunos de los
riesgos asociados con dicho cambio climático en México.
petrolera, la gran minería o la creación de grandes obras de infraestructura, como represas y carreteras, se sobreponen en uso territorial a las áreas protegidas, surge una disyuntiva entre dos necesidades prioritarias para un país en vías de desarrollo:
• Generar recursos económicos en el corto plazo vía inversión
extranjera y gasto en infraestructura productiva.
• O conservar y proteger sus recursos naturales para las futuras
generaciones.
La generación de recursos en el corto plazo vía la explotación petrolera
o la creación de infraestructura suelen primar en este proceso de selección.
Si no existe otra opción que la coexistencia de actividades extractivas y la conservación de áreas naturales protegidas, se debe encontrar el proceso técnico que genere el menor daño al entorno natural, además de compensar en forma económica a los agentes dañados por el proceso extractivo