ABSTRACT In the 1992 Rio World Summit on Environment and Development/UNCED), water resources are ... more ABSTRACT In the 1992 Rio World Summit on Environment and Development/UNCED), water resources are indicated to remain at the core of sustainable development and, thus, they are to be managed and developed on a sustainable basis. Sustainability is a philosophical concept and thus difficult to measure. Yet, we need to describe it on rather precise terms to assess whether our water management practices are sustainable and to ensure sustainability in decision making for management. To this end, a number of sustainability criteria have been defined, based on quantifiable measures, without overlooking immeasurable aspects of sustainable development. This paper considers economic, social and environmental dimensions of sustainability as the basic criteria to be pursued in evaluating how effective our water management plans are in achieving sustainability. On the other hand, actual case studies are needed to test the usefulness of selected criteria by using computer-based interactive optimization and simulation models with associated databases embedded into a decision support system (DSS). The study herein intends to present such a case study based on economic, social and environmental criteria to assess sustainability in management of the Gediz River Basin in Turkey. Various management scenarios developed for the basin are evaluated within a DSS while ensuring multi-stakeholder involvement in defining the three sustainability criteria. The case study is a result of the analyses carried out in SMART (Sustainable Management of Scarce Resources in the Coastal Zone) and OPTIMA (Optimization for Sustainable Water Resources Management) projects funded respectively by the 5th and 6th Framework Programmes of the European Union.
Since 1988 the Gediz basin in western Turkey has changed from a water-abundant to a water-short b... more Since 1988 the Gediz basin in western Turkey has changed from a water-abundant to a water-short basin. This has resulted in a series of water conflicts. The first conflict occurred during the drought of 1989-1994 when priorities for water use in the basin changed from flood control and hydropower to irrigation. The second results from perennial water shortages caused by
Water is one of the controlling factors of regional development around the Eastern and Southern M... more Water is one of the controlling factors of regional development around the Eastern and Southern Mediterranean. Scarcity and conflict characterize water resource management in many countries and river basins. Rapid demographic and economic development especially of the coastal zone, urbanization, industrialization, tourism, and an often inefficient agricultural sector as the dominant water user contribute to the problem. Low availability of renewable water, overexploited groundwater, pollution, inefficient infrastructure, pronounced seasonality with unfavourable demand patterns very different from the seasonal supply aggravate the situation. Within the Framework of a FW6 sponsored INCO-MPC project, OPTIMA, a simulation based water resources planning and optimization system is being developed and applied in case studies in Cyprus, Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Palestine and Israel, Tunisia and Morocco. The model system addresses both quantity and quality, water demand and supply, surface a...
"Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Study Institute on Coping with Floods, helds in Erice, Ita... more "Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Study Institute on Coping with Floods, helds in Erice, Italy, November 3-15 1992" "Published in cooperation with NATOS Scientific Affairs Division" Incluye bibliografía e índice
The Gediz River Basin along the Aegean coast of Turkey is a typical basin where two major problem... more The Gediz River Basin along the Aegean coast of Turkey is a typical basin where two major problems, water scarcity and pollution, need to be addressed for sustain-able management of its water resources. The case demonstrates the entire range of prototypical water management problems in the region, and their potential solutions. The existing water resources are under pressure by rapid industrial development, population growth, related increases in agricultural production, and pollution. The case also reflects the importance of the institutional and regulatory framework, and the need for direct participation of major actors and stakeholders in the planning and decision making processes. This paper focuses on problems associated with the management of the Gediz River Basin and discusses possible actions that may be undertaken towards achiev-ing sustainability in management of the basin. The actions discussed are derived through the consideration of priorities and preferences of basin s...
Water resources management has become an important issue due to anthropo- genic effects by increa... more Water resources management has become an important issue due to anthropo- genic effects by increasing population, agricultural and industrial activities. Decision Support Systems (DSS) should be developed and executed properly in water re- sources management practices to achieve reliable and confident decisions. Despite several independent studies on modeling, GIS or databases, applications of DSS are very few in Turkey. In
In this study, a water resource management model that facilitates indicator-based decisions, with... more In this study, a water resource management model that facilitates indicator-based decisions, with respect to environmental, social and economic dimensions in a multiple criteria perspective, is developed for the Gediz River Basin in Turkey. The basic input of the proposed model is the quantity of surface water that is mainly allocated to irrigation purposes. The model has been applied under 3 different hydro-meteorological scenarios that reflect baseline as well as better and worse condi-tions of water supply and demand, not only to reach a comprehensive assessment of the water budget in the Gediz Basin, but also to evaluate the impacts of proposed management alternatives under different conditions. The Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) software is used as a simulation and evaluation tool to assess the performance of possible management alternatives; performance is measured by 9 indicators representing economic, social and environmental sustainability. The study has delineated th...
Gediz Basin is an agriculture-dominant river basin in the western region of Turkey along the Aege... more Gediz Basin is an agriculture-dominant river basin in the western region of Turkey along the Aegean coast. The most significant feature of the basin is water scarcity, which is due basically to competition for water among various uses (water allocation problems), mainly irrigation with a total command area of 110,000 ha versus the domestic and fast growing industrial demand in the coastal zone, and environmental pollution although the basin experiences significant droughts from time to time. Since the water resources in the basin are almost fully allocated to various uses, it is expected that the negative impacts of climate change will exacerbate the water crisis. In this study, the results of the project "Climate Change Scenarios for Turkey", funded by TUBITAK (The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey) are used in Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP), in order to assess the climate change impacts on water resources and water demand in the basin. ...
One of the crucial problems in conceptual rainfall runoff models is over-parameterization. In mos... more One of the crucial problems in conceptual rainfall runoff models is over-parameterization. In most cases, as the number of parameters to be calibrated increases, model performance either does not improve or, it may even decrease due to poorly defined parameters. Simple daily-based rainfall-runoff models are generally lumped models that average catchment heterogeneity. To increase the spatial resolution of such models, the computational resolution may be changed from catchment scale to a cell-based scale. This change may require a modification of the model structure by addition of new parameters. Such an approach may lead to two problems: increase in the complexity of model structure and over-parameterization. In the study presented, a cell-based, parsimonious, distributed, continuous, conceptual daily rainfall-runoff model (DRRSM) with a minimum amount of parameters is introduced. The data needs of the developed model include only daily rainfall, pan evaporation, DEM (digital elevat...
This paper examines the application of an optimization method that can be used to assess an exist... more This paper examines the application of an optimization method that can be used to assess an existing water quality monitoring network with respect to its sampling sites. The method uses dynamic programming to evaluate the reduction of the number of sampling sites in a basin with respect to different monitoring objectives. The methodology is demonstrated in the case of the Gediz River basin in western Turkey.
The multivariate approach of marginal distributions and their sequential dependence models is oft... more The multivariate approach of marginal distributions and their sequential dependence models is often used for description of periodic-stochastic hydrologic time series. This is a nonfunctional (or nonparametric) method of description of periodic variation in basic parameters. ...
Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Civil and Structural Engineering Computing, 2001
ABSTRACT The study presented demonstrates the use of the entropy concept, as defined in informati... more ABSTRACT The study presented demonstrates the use of the entropy concept, as defined in information theory, to assess the regional uncertainty and indirectly the regional information available about floods. The method is used to describe the total uncertainty related to floods in a basin, together with the joint information provided by observed data of existing streamflow gages. The contribution of each gage to this total information is assessed eventually to arrive at a better combination of stations in transferring flood information from one space point to another. This is realized by a priority listing of stations in order of their contribution to the decrease in regional uncertainty. The application of the method is demonstrated in the case of a Turkish river basin, where coping with floods is a major problem. The strengths and shortcomings of the method are discussed, with recommendations for future research on the application of the entropy principle in evaluating regional transfer of information about floods.
ABSTRACT In the 1992 Rio World Summit on Environment and Development/UNCED), water resources are ... more ABSTRACT In the 1992 Rio World Summit on Environment and Development/UNCED), water resources are indicated to remain at the core of sustainable development and, thus, they are to be managed and developed on a sustainable basis. Sustainability is a philosophical concept and thus difficult to measure. Yet, we need to describe it on rather precise terms to assess whether our water management practices are sustainable and to ensure sustainability in decision making for management. To this end, a number of sustainability criteria have been defined, based on quantifiable measures, without overlooking immeasurable aspects of sustainable development. This paper considers economic, social and environmental dimensions of sustainability as the basic criteria to be pursued in evaluating how effective our water management plans are in achieving sustainability. On the other hand, actual case studies are needed to test the usefulness of selected criteria by using computer-based interactive optimization and simulation models with associated databases embedded into a decision support system (DSS). The study herein intends to present such a case study based on economic, social and environmental criteria to assess sustainability in management of the Gediz River Basin in Turkey. Various management scenarios developed for the basin are evaluated within a DSS while ensuring multi-stakeholder involvement in defining the three sustainability criteria. The case study is a result of the analyses carried out in SMART (Sustainable Management of Scarce Resources in the Coastal Zone) and OPTIMA (Optimization for Sustainable Water Resources Management) projects funded respectively by the 5th and 6th Framework Programmes of the European Union.
ABSTRACT In the 1992 Rio World Summit on Environment and Development/UNCED), water resources are ... more ABSTRACT In the 1992 Rio World Summit on Environment and Development/UNCED), water resources are indicated to remain at the core of sustainable development and, thus, they are to be managed and developed on a sustainable basis. Sustainability is a philosophical concept and thus difficult to measure. Yet, we need to describe it on rather precise terms to assess whether our water management practices are sustainable and to ensure sustainability in decision making for management. To this end, a number of sustainability criteria have been defined, based on quantifiable measures, without overlooking immeasurable aspects of sustainable development. This paper considers economic, social and environmental dimensions of sustainability as the basic criteria to be pursued in evaluating how effective our water management plans are in achieving sustainability. On the other hand, actual case studies are needed to test the usefulness of selected criteria by using computer-based interactive optimization and simulation models with associated databases embedded into a decision support system (DSS). The study herein intends to present such a case study based on economic, social and environmental criteria to assess sustainability in management of the Gediz River Basin in Turkey. Various management scenarios developed for the basin are evaluated within a DSS while ensuring multi-stakeholder involvement in defining the three sustainability criteria. The case study is a result of the analyses carried out in SMART (Sustainable Management of Scarce Resources in the Coastal Zone) and OPTIMA (Optimization for Sustainable Water Resources Management) projects funded respectively by the 5th and 6th Framework Programmes of the European Union.
Since 1988 the Gediz basin in western Turkey has changed from a water-abundant to a water-short b... more Since 1988 the Gediz basin in western Turkey has changed from a water-abundant to a water-short basin. This has resulted in a series of water conflicts. The first conflict occurred during the drought of 1989-1994 when priorities for water use in the basin changed from flood control and hydropower to irrigation. The second results from perennial water shortages caused by
Water is one of the controlling factors of regional development around the Eastern and Southern M... more Water is one of the controlling factors of regional development around the Eastern and Southern Mediterranean. Scarcity and conflict characterize water resource management in many countries and river basins. Rapid demographic and economic development especially of the coastal zone, urbanization, industrialization, tourism, and an often inefficient agricultural sector as the dominant water user contribute to the problem. Low availability of renewable water, overexploited groundwater, pollution, inefficient infrastructure, pronounced seasonality with unfavourable demand patterns very different from the seasonal supply aggravate the situation. Within the Framework of a FW6 sponsored INCO-MPC project, OPTIMA, a simulation based water resources planning and optimization system is being developed and applied in case studies in Cyprus, Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Palestine and Israel, Tunisia and Morocco. The model system addresses both quantity and quality, water demand and supply, surface a...
"Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Study Institute on Coping with Floods, helds in Erice, Ita... more "Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Study Institute on Coping with Floods, helds in Erice, Italy, November 3-15 1992" "Published in cooperation with NATOS Scientific Affairs Division" Incluye bibliografía e índice
The Gediz River Basin along the Aegean coast of Turkey is a typical basin where two major problem... more The Gediz River Basin along the Aegean coast of Turkey is a typical basin where two major problems, water scarcity and pollution, need to be addressed for sustain-able management of its water resources. The case demonstrates the entire range of prototypical water management problems in the region, and their potential solutions. The existing water resources are under pressure by rapid industrial development, population growth, related increases in agricultural production, and pollution. The case also reflects the importance of the institutional and regulatory framework, and the need for direct participation of major actors and stakeholders in the planning and decision making processes. This paper focuses on problems associated with the management of the Gediz River Basin and discusses possible actions that may be undertaken towards achiev-ing sustainability in management of the basin. The actions discussed are derived through the consideration of priorities and preferences of basin s...
Water resources management has become an important issue due to anthropo- genic effects by increa... more Water resources management has become an important issue due to anthropo- genic effects by increasing population, agricultural and industrial activities. Decision Support Systems (DSS) should be developed and executed properly in water re- sources management practices to achieve reliable and confident decisions. Despite several independent studies on modeling, GIS or databases, applications of DSS are very few in Turkey. In
In this study, a water resource management model that facilitates indicator-based decisions, with... more In this study, a water resource management model that facilitates indicator-based decisions, with respect to environmental, social and economic dimensions in a multiple criteria perspective, is developed for the Gediz River Basin in Turkey. The basic input of the proposed model is the quantity of surface water that is mainly allocated to irrigation purposes. The model has been applied under 3 different hydro-meteorological scenarios that reflect baseline as well as better and worse condi-tions of water supply and demand, not only to reach a comprehensive assessment of the water budget in the Gediz Basin, but also to evaluate the impacts of proposed management alternatives under different conditions. The Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) software is used as a simulation and evaluation tool to assess the performance of possible management alternatives; performance is measured by 9 indicators representing economic, social and environmental sustainability. The study has delineated th...
Gediz Basin is an agriculture-dominant river basin in the western region of Turkey along the Aege... more Gediz Basin is an agriculture-dominant river basin in the western region of Turkey along the Aegean coast. The most significant feature of the basin is water scarcity, which is due basically to competition for water among various uses (water allocation problems), mainly irrigation with a total command area of 110,000 ha versus the domestic and fast growing industrial demand in the coastal zone, and environmental pollution although the basin experiences significant droughts from time to time. Since the water resources in the basin are almost fully allocated to various uses, it is expected that the negative impacts of climate change will exacerbate the water crisis. In this study, the results of the project "Climate Change Scenarios for Turkey", funded by TUBITAK (The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey) are used in Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP), in order to assess the climate change impacts on water resources and water demand in the basin. ...
One of the crucial problems in conceptual rainfall runoff models is over-parameterization. In mos... more One of the crucial problems in conceptual rainfall runoff models is over-parameterization. In most cases, as the number of parameters to be calibrated increases, model performance either does not improve or, it may even decrease due to poorly defined parameters. Simple daily-based rainfall-runoff models are generally lumped models that average catchment heterogeneity. To increase the spatial resolution of such models, the computational resolution may be changed from catchment scale to a cell-based scale. This change may require a modification of the model structure by addition of new parameters. Such an approach may lead to two problems: increase in the complexity of model structure and over-parameterization. In the study presented, a cell-based, parsimonious, distributed, continuous, conceptual daily rainfall-runoff model (DRRSM) with a minimum amount of parameters is introduced. The data needs of the developed model include only daily rainfall, pan evaporation, DEM (digital elevat...
This paper examines the application of an optimization method that can be used to assess an exist... more This paper examines the application of an optimization method that can be used to assess an existing water quality monitoring network with respect to its sampling sites. The method uses dynamic programming to evaluate the reduction of the number of sampling sites in a basin with respect to different monitoring objectives. The methodology is demonstrated in the case of the Gediz River basin in western Turkey.
The multivariate approach of marginal distributions and their sequential dependence models is oft... more The multivariate approach of marginal distributions and their sequential dependence models is often used for description of periodic-stochastic hydrologic time series. This is a nonfunctional (or nonparametric) method of description of periodic variation in basic parameters. ...
Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Civil and Structural Engineering Computing, 2001
ABSTRACT The study presented demonstrates the use of the entropy concept, as defined in informati... more ABSTRACT The study presented demonstrates the use of the entropy concept, as defined in information theory, to assess the regional uncertainty and indirectly the regional information available about floods. The method is used to describe the total uncertainty related to floods in a basin, together with the joint information provided by observed data of existing streamflow gages. The contribution of each gage to this total information is assessed eventually to arrive at a better combination of stations in transferring flood information from one space point to another. This is realized by a priority listing of stations in order of their contribution to the decrease in regional uncertainty. The application of the method is demonstrated in the case of a Turkish river basin, where coping with floods is a major problem. The strengths and shortcomings of the method are discussed, with recommendations for future research on the application of the entropy principle in evaluating regional transfer of information about floods.
ABSTRACT In the 1992 Rio World Summit on Environment and Development/UNCED), water resources are ... more ABSTRACT In the 1992 Rio World Summit on Environment and Development/UNCED), water resources are indicated to remain at the core of sustainable development and, thus, they are to be managed and developed on a sustainable basis. Sustainability is a philosophical concept and thus difficult to measure. Yet, we need to describe it on rather precise terms to assess whether our water management practices are sustainable and to ensure sustainability in decision making for management. To this end, a number of sustainability criteria have been defined, based on quantifiable measures, without overlooking immeasurable aspects of sustainable development. This paper considers economic, social and environmental dimensions of sustainability as the basic criteria to be pursued in evaluating how effective our water management plans are in achieving sustainability. On the other hand, actual case studies are needed to test the usefulness of selected criteria by using computer-based interactive optimization and simulation models with associated databases embedded into a decision support system (DSS). The study herein intends to present such a case study based on economic, social and environmental criteria to assess sustainability in management of the Gediz River Basin in Turkey. Various management scenarios developed for the basin are evaluated within a DSS while ensuring multi-stakeholder involvement in defining the three sustainability criteria. The case study is a result of the analyses carried out in SMART (Sustainable Management of Scarce Resources in the Coastal Zone) and OPTIMA (Optimization for Sustainable Water Resources Management) projects funded respectively by the 5th and 6th Framework Programmes of the European Union.
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Papers by Nilgun Harmancioglu