NatronFX: The Bullpen

Market Outlook – April 13, 2025

Quick recap: In the last analysis, I mentioned watching the 18,350–18,000 zone for signs of support — a level stacked with confluence (50–61.8% Fib, EMA, VWAP, pivot). Price broke down deeper than expected but responded beautifully:

✅ Tagged 18,000 almost to the tick ✅ Rejected hard at the 61.8 Fib ✅ Respected the 50 Fib on the way back up All solid signs of strength.

Now with tariff exemptions announced today (bullish for tech/Nasdaq), I’m opening the door to more long setups this week.

Here’s What I’m Watching: 🔹 Scenario A: Pullback into the 18,575–18,500 zone (first dotted white line). If price reclaims structure or gives me something clean — EMA bounce, VWAP tag, candle pattern — I’ll look for longs. 🔹 Scenario B: If that level breaks or I miss the first shot, I’ll look for a second chance around 18,000–18,300. Same deal: not jumping in blindly, waiting for a setup to form.

To be clear — these are areas of interest, not automatic trades. I want clean structure and confirmation before entering.

Let’s see how it plays out. Will update if/when I take a position. Stay sharp. 📈

CPI came in soft this morning — a miss across the board. In theory, that gives the Fed more room (or more of an excuse) to cut rates, which is what Trump’s been pushing for. Overall, that’s a positive sign for the market.

But despite that, there’s still a lot of downside pressure right now, and I haven’t seen a clean long setup yet.

What I’m Watching: I’m keeping a close eye on the 18,350 to 18,000 area for a possible entry. That zone has a ton of confluence:

50–61.8% Fib retracement

Weekly VWAP

White EMA on the 30-min

Weekly pivot

If price pulls into that zone and starts to show signs of support, I’ll look for a way in. Until then, I’m staying patient.

Will keep you all posted if I take anything.

Today I was open to more downside, especially with all the tariff noise lately. There was some fake news yesterday about a 90-day tariff pause, which pumped the market short-term. But even though it was fake, price held up — until today.

Higher Timeframe Context: 4H (Top-Left): Price was rejecting the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the April highs around 20,000. This level also aligned with my monthly VWAP (red line) — key confluence.

30M (Top-Right): Price had pushed up into the white EMA, which was perfectly in line with the orange weekly pivot and the prior day’s (fake news) high. That was my “line in the sand” to look for rejection.

Entry Setup: 1-Min (Bottom-Right): I saw a mini head and shoulders pattern form near that key resistance zone.

Once price broke the neckline and my orange/blue EMAs, I took the short.

Stop: Placed just above the weekly pivot.

Target: Took partials at 2R, and left a runner.

Exit: I closed the rest of the trade to lock in gains and avoid being greedy. Of course, as soon as I closed, it ran further in my direction for what would’ve been nearly 3x more profit — but hey, that's trading.