research-article

Zero-intelligence agents in prediction markets

Author:

Abraham OthmanAuthors Info & Claims

AAMAS '08: Proceedings of the 7th international joint conference on Autonomous agents and multiagent systems - Volume 2

Pages 879 - 886

Published: 12 May 2008 Publication History

Abstract

We construct a novel agent-based model of prediction markets in which putative human qualities like learning, reasoning, and profit-seeking are absent. We show that the prices which emerge from a market populated by a class of distinctly inhuman agents, Zero-Intelligence agents with diffuse beliefs, replicate the findings of empirical market studies. We use this result to argue against the prevailing descriptive theories of price formation in prediction markets, which have stressed the role of expert, rational participants.

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Cited By

Wright MWellman MAndre EKoenig SDastani MSukthankar G(2018)Evaluating the Stability of Non-Adaptive Trading in Continuous Double AuctionsProceedings of the 17th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and MultiAgent Systems10.5555/3237383.3237475(614-622)Online publication date: 9-Jul-2018
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/3237383.3237475
Li ZDas SJonker CMarsella SThangarajah JTuyls K(2016)An Agent-Based Model of Competition Between Financial ExchangesProceedings of the 2016 International Conference on Autonomous Agents & Multiagent Systems10.5555/2936924.2936937(50-58)Online publication date: 9-May-2016
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/2936924.2936937
Jumadinova JDasgupta P(2015)Automated Pricing in a Multiagent Prediction Market Using a Partially Observable Stochastic GameACM Transactions on Intelligent Systems and Technology10.1145/27004886:4(1-25)Online publication date: 29-Jul-2015
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/2700488
Show More Cited By

Index Terms

Zero-intelligence agents in prediction markets
1. Applied computing
  1. Law, social and behavioral sciences

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Published In

cover image ACM Conferences

AAMAS '08: Proceedings of the 7th international joint conference on Autonomous agents and multiagent systems - Volume 2

May 2008

673 pages

ISBN:9780981738116

Sponsors

ACM: Association for Computing Machinery
AAAI: Association for the Advancement of Artifical Intelligence

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SIGAI: ACM Special Interest Group on Artificial Intelligence

Publisher

International Foundation for Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems

Richland, SC

Publication History

Published: 12 May 2008

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AAMAS08

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ACM
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AAMAS08: 7th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multi Agent Systems

May 12 - 16, 2008

Estoril, Portugal

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Overall Acceptance Rate 1,155 of 5,036 submissions, 23%

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Cited By

Wright MWellman MAndre EKoenig SDastani MSukthankar G(2018)Evaluating the Stability of Non-Adaptive Trading in Continuous Double AuctionsProceedings of the 17th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and MultiAgent Systems10.5555/3237383.3237475(614-622)Online publication date: 9-Jul-2018
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/3237383.3237475
Li ZDas SJonker CMarsella SThangarajah JTuyls K(2016)An Agent-Based Model of Competition Between Financial ExchangesProceedings of the 2016 International Conference on Autonomous Agents & Multiagent Systems10.5555/2936924.2936937(50-58)Online publication date: 9-May-2016
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/2936924.2936937
Jumadinova JDasgupta P(2015)Automated Pricing in a Multiagent Prediction Market Using a Partially Observable Stochastic GameACM Transactions on Intelligent Systems and Technology10.1145/27004886:4(1-25)Online publication date: 29-Jul-2015
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/2700488
Chie BChen S(2014)Toward a spatial agent-based prediction marketProceedings of the 2014 Symposium on Agent Directed Simulation10.5555/2665049.2665057(1-6)Online publication date: 13-Apr-2014
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/2665049.2665057
Atanasov PRescober PStone EServan-Schreiber EMellers BTetlock PUngar L(2013)The marketcast method for aggregating prediction market forecastsProceedings of the 6th international conference on Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction10.1007/978-3-642-37210-0_4(28-37)Online publication date: 2-Apr-2013
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1007/978-3-642-37210-0_4
Othman ASandholm T(2012)Rational market making with probabilistic knowledgeProceedings of the 11th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems - Volume 210.5555/2343776.2343789(645-652)Online publication date: 4-Jun-2012
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/2343776.2343789
Yu TChen S(2011)Agent-Based modeling of the prediction markets for political electionsProceedings of the 12th international conference on Multi-Agent-Based Simulation10.1007/978-3-642-28400-7_3(31-43)Online publication date: 2-May-2011
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1007/978-3-642-28400-7_3
Othman ASandholm TLuck MSen S(2010)When do markets with simple agents fail?Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems: volume 1 - Volume 110.5555/1838206.1838322(865-872)Online publication date: 10-May-2010
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/1838206.1838322
Othman ASandholm TParkes DDellarocas CTennenholtz M(2010)Automated market-making in the largeProceedings of the 11th ACM conference on Electronic commerce10.1145/1807342.1807401(367-376)Online publication date: 7-Jun-2010
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/1807342.1807401

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