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Graphical representation of statistical information in situations of judgment and decision-making

Published: 28 August 2007 Publication History

Abstract

Motivation -- To address both the theoretical and practical issues related to graphical representation of probabilities in the attempt to create 'corrective' representations that can counter-effect documented biases in judgment and decision-making.
Research approach -- 64 students were asked to answer questions dealing with statistical information that was presented either numerically or graphically, replicating two well-knows experiments in the field of judgement and decision-making.
Findings/Design -- The results of the pilot study suggest that graphical representation may help to counter the effect of documented biases.
Research limitations/Implications -- The pilot study has only marginal significance due to the relatively small sample size.
Originality/Value -- The research aims to suggest optimal graphical representations to help people in their decision-making process.
Take away message -- Graphical representations may be an untapped resource that can be used along with or instead of numerical representations in decision-making.

References

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Allais, M. (1953). Le comportement de l'homme rationnel devant de risque: Critique des postulats et axiomes de l'école américaine. Econometrica, 21, 503--546.
[2]
Bertin, J., (1983). Semiology of Graphics. Wisconsin: University Of Wisconsin Press.
[3]
Brase, G. L., (2002). Which statistical formats facilitate what decisions? The perception and influence of different statistical information formats. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 15(5), 381--401
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Burkell, J. (2004). What are the chances? Evaluating risk and benefit information in consumer health materials. The Journal of the Medical Library Association, 92(2), 200--208.
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Erev, I., Cohen, B., (1990). Verbal versus numerical probabilities: Efficiency, biases, and the preference paradox, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 45, 1--18.
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Gigerenzer, G., Edwards, A., (2003). Simple tools for understanding risks: From innumeracy to insight. British Medical Journal, 327, 41--44.
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Kahneman, D., Tversky, A., (1979). Prospect Theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47, 2.
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Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., Tversky, A., (1982). Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press.
[9]
Larkin, J. H., Simon, H. A. (1987). Why a diagram is (sometimes) worth 10,000 words. Cognitive Science, 11(1), 65--100.
[10]
Lipkus, I. M., Hollands, J. G., (1999). The visual communication of risk. Journal of the National Cancer Institute Monographs, 25, 149--163.
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Olson, M. J., Budescu, D. V., (1997). Patterns of preference for numerical and verbal probabilities. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 10, 117--131.
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Stone, E. R., Yates, J. F., Parker, A. M., (1997). Effects of numerical and graphical displays on professed risk-taking behavior. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 3, 243--256.
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Windschitl, P. D., Wells, G., (1996). Measuring psychological uncertainty: Verbal versus numeric. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 2, 343--364.

Cited By

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  • (2017)Designing for Uncertainty in HCIProceedings of the 2017 CHI Conference Extended Abstracts on Human Factors in Computing Systems10.1145/3027063.3027091(593-600)Online publication date: 6-May-2017
  • (2017)Surprise! Bayesian Weighting for De-Biasing Thematic MapsIEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics10.1109/TVCG.2016.259861823:1(651-660)Online publication date: 1-Jan-2017
  • (2016)GenomiXProceedings of the 2016 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems10.1145/2858036.2858397(661-672)Online publication date: 7-May-2016
  1. Graphical representation of statistical information in situations of judgment and decision-making

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    cover image ACM Conferences
    ECCE '07: Proceedings of the 14th European conference on Cognitive ergonomics: invent! explore!
    August 2007
    334 pages
    ISBN:9781847998491
    DOI:10.1145/1362550
    Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than ACM must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Request permissions from [email protected]

    Sponsors

    • The British Computer Society
    • ACM: Association for Computing Machinery
    • SIGCHI: Specialist Interest Group in Computer-Human Interaction of the ACM
    • Interactions, the Human-Computer Interaction Specialist Group of the BCS
    • Middlesex University, London, School of Computing Science
    • European Office of Aerospace Research and Development, Air Force Office of Scientific Research, United States Air Force Research Laboratory
    • EACE: European Association of Cognitive Ergonomics
    • Brunel University, West London, Department of Information Systems and Computing

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    Association for Computing Machinery

    New York, NY, United States

    Publication History

    Published: 28 August 2007

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    Author Tags

    1. decision-making
    2. graphical representation of statistical information
    3. probability representation
    4. risk communication
    5. uncertainty visualization

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    ECCE07
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    ECCE07: European Conference on Cognitive Ergonomics 2007
    August 28 - 31, 2007
    London, United Kingdom

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    Overall Acceptance Rate 56 of 91 submissions, 62%

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    Cited By

    View all
    • (2017)Designing for Uncertainty in HCIProceedings of the 2017 CHI Conference Extended Abstracts on Human Factors in Computing Systems10.1145/3027063.3027091(593-600)Online publication date: 6-May-2017
    • (2017)Surprise! Bayesian Weighting for De-Biasing Thematic MapsIEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics10.1109/TVCG.2016.259861823:1(651-660)Online publication date: 1-Jan-2017
    • (2016)GenomiXProceedings of the 2016 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems10.1145/2858036.2858397(661-672)Online publication date: 7-May-2016

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