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Predicting the social influence of upcoming contents in large social networks

Published: 17 August 2013 Publication History

Abstract

Online social networks, such as twitter and facebook, are continuously generating the new contents and relationships. To fully understand the spread of topics, there are some essential but remaining open questions. Why do some seemingly ordinary topics actually received widespread attention? Is it due to the attractiveness of the content itself, or social network structure plays a larger role in the dissemination of information? Can we predict the trend of information dissemination?
Analyzing and predicting the influence and spread of up-coming contents is an interesting and useful research direction, and has brilliant perspective on web advertising and spam detection. For solving the problems, in this paper, a novel time series model has been proposed. In this model, the existing user-generated contents are summarized with a set of valued sequences. An early predictor is adopted for analyzing the topical/structural properties of series, and the influence of newly coming contents are estimated with the predictor. The empirical study conducted on large real data sets indicates that our model is interesting and meaningful, and our methods are effective and efficient in practice.

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Cited By

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  • (2022)Self-Presenting Virtually for Remote Social InfluencePractical Peer-to-Peer Teaching and Learning on the Social Web10.4018/978-1-7998-6496-7.ch013(407-461)Online publication date: 2022
  • (2016)Cost-Effective Online Trending Topic Detection and Popularity Prediction in MicrobloggingACM Transactions on Information Systems (TOIS)10.1145/300183335:3(1-36)Online publication date: 15-Dec-2016

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      cover image ACM Other conferences
      ICIMCS '13: Proceedings of the Fifth International Conference on Internet Multimedia Computing and Service
      August 2013
      419 pages
      ISBN:9781450322522
      DOI:10.1145/2499788
      • Conference Chair:
      • Tat-Seng Chua,
      • General Chairs:
      • Ke Lu,
      • Tao Mei,
      • Xindong Wu
      Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than ACM must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Request permissions from [email protected]

      Sponsors

      • NSF of China: National Natural Science Foundation of China
      • University of Sciences & Technology, Hefei: University of Sciences & Technology, Hefei
      • Beijing ACM SIGMM Chapter

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      Association for Computing Machinery

      New York, NY, United States

      Publication History

      Published: 17 August 2013

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      Author Tags

      1. early prediction
      2. social media
      3. time series

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      ICIMCS '13
      Sponsor:
      • NSF of China
      • University of Sciences & Technology, Hefei

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      ICIMCS '13 Paper Acceptance Rate 20 of 94 submissions, 21%;
      Overall Acceptance Rate 163 of 456 submissions, 36%

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      Cited By

      View all
      • (2022)Self-Presenting Virtually for Remote Social InfluencePractical Peer-to-Peer Teaching and Learning on the Social Web10.4018/978-1-7998-6496-7.ch013(407-461)Online publication date: 2022
      • (2016)Cost-Effective Online Trending Topic Detection and Popularity Prediction in MicrobloggingACM Transactions on Information Systems (TOIS)10.1145/300183335:3(1-36)Online publication date: 15-Dec-2016

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