6.1 Analysing the Fitness
The statistical moments and median for the best-in-population fitness of each experiment were calculated at the end of evolution (Table
3). This analysis shows that modulatory agents have the same or higher mean and median fitness across all experiments. Combined with the results presented in Table
2, modulatory agents not only have a higher mean and median fitness, but they achieve their goal more often than non-modulatory agents; this is observed both in single- and multi-stage tasks and single- and multi-agent environments. The variance in the best-in-population fitness after evolution is also lower in modulatory agents, which further illustrates the benefits of behavioural plasticity.
The distribution of fitnesses after evolution for modulatory agents is negatively skewed; the amount of skewness tends to decrease from highly skewed to more symmetrical as environmental variability increases. This is supported by the median fitness tending to be higher than the mean fitness for modulatory agents, meaning that agents would likely achieve a higher-than-average fitness. The opposite is observed in non-modulatory agents, as the fitness distribution is positively skewed; as with modulatory agents, the amount of skew tends to decrease as environmental variability increases. In each experiment, the mean fitness for non-modulatory agents is higher than the median; this indicates positive skewness and that agents would be likely to achieve a fitness lower than the average. A contributing factor to this is that non-modulatory agents are less likely to evolve a goal-achieving fitness at the end of evolution than modulatory agents, thus skewing the distribution of fitnesses to the left.
The amount of kurtosis in the fitness distribution tends to increase in non-modulatory agents as environmental variability increases, but decrease in modulatory agents; this suggests that more outliers can be expected in non-modulatory agents as environmental variability increases, and the opposite in modulatory agents. Saying this, all fitness distributions for each experiment are platykurtic (where excess kurtosis is negative (kurtexcess = kurt-3), or kurt < 3), meaning that outliers and extreme values are not common overall.
To analyse the effect that activity-gating neuromodulation has on evolution further, statistical tests were performed to compare the best-in-population fitnesses of modulatory and non-modulatory agents in each experiment. First, a Shapiro-Wilk test for normality is described by Yap and Sim [
47] as being powerful for a range of distributions that are skewed, symmetric, and those with high or low kurtosis. As such, it is appropriate to test the distributions described in Table
3. Each distribution was found to be non-normal (
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).
As the distributions are non-normal, Wilcoxon Signed Rank statistical tests were then conducted to analyse the effects of behavioural plasticity on fitness and evolution. This non-parametric test compares the medians of two paired distributions; the null hypothesis of a two-tailed test is that the distribution medians are equal, whereas one-tailed tests have the alternative hypothesis that there is a directional difference in the distribution medians (e.g.,
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). The null hypothesis can be rejected when the calculated
p-value is significant, below 0.05. These results are presented in Table
4. The two-tailed tests show that there is a significant difference in median fitness between non-modulatory and modulatory agents for each experiment in the study; the null hypothesis that the medians of the two distributions are equal can thus be rejected as
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. Additionally, two one-tailed tests indicate that there is a significant directional difference in the medians of the two distributions, where the median of the non-modulatory approach (
mn) is lower than the modulatory approach (
mm) for each experiment conducted; furthermore, the contrasting one-tailed test (
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) shows no significant difference. These results demonstrate that neuromodulation has a positive effect on the expected fitness of agents in all areas of the study.
6.2 Analysing Goal-achievement over Evolution
Thus far, the fitness that agents receive at the end of evolution has been assessed; modulatory agents are observed to have a higher mean fitness than non-modulatory agents and achieve their goals more often. However, while it is desirable to evolve agents that can receive a goal-achieving fitness at the end of evolution, another benefit would be for agents to consistently achieve their goals throughout evolution as well.
Figure
7 shows a box plot of the number of generations that agents receive a goal-achieving fitness (≥0.7) during evolution. In each experiment, the first, second, and third quartiles of goal-achieving generations is the same or higher in modulatory agents than in non-modulatory agents; this shows that modulatory agents achieve their goal for more generations overall than their non-modulatory counterparts. Not only is the data more heavily skewed to the left in modulatory agents, but the spread of values is generally smaller than in non-modulatory agents; this indicates that modulatory agents are more predictable and are likely to spend more generations receiving a goal-achieving fitness than other agents. Modulatory agents thus spend more of their lifetime able to achieve their goals than agents not capable of behavioural plasticity.
To evidence this claim further, Wilcoxon Signed Rank statistical tests were conducted to compare the number of successful generations between non-modulatory and modulatory agents, where a “successful” generation is one that an agent receives a goal-achieving fitness of ≥0.7 (Table
5). In line with Section
6.1, a Shapiro-Wilk normality test first indicated each distribution was non-normal (
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). In each experiment, the two-tailed Wilcoxon Signed Rank test shows that there is a significant difference in the median number of successful generations between non-modulatory and modulatory agents; as
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in each test, the null hypothesis that the medians are equal can be rejected. Further, the one-tailed tests show that there is a significant directional difference between the two medians, where the median number of successful generations in non-modulatory agents is lower than in modulatory agents. The analysis thus far therefore shows that behavioural plasticity can help agents to not only be more likely to receive a higher fitness and achieve their goals after evolution, but it can also help them to be more successful throughout evolution as well.
6.3 Analysing the Effect of Behavioural Plasticity on Evolutionary Volatility
Behavioural plasticity arising through neuromodulation has a positive impact on the fitness agents achieve after evolution and the ability of agents to achieve their goals. In this section, we explore how behavioural plasticity affects the evolution and thus the evolved fitness of agents.
Barnes et al. [
6] proposed three metrics to analyse the volatility of agent evolution by capturing the variability and dispersion of values over time. These metrics can therefore be used to describe the evolutionary process of agents and whether the received fitness is prone to change frequently during evolution.
The Standard Deviation over Time (SDoT) metric is inspired by a common metric used in volatility forecasting in finance, capturing the dispersion and variability of values over time by calculating the sample standard deviation over a defined time period. A high SDoT indicates that agents have highly volatile evolution, meaning that the fitness has a high variability and dispersion of values over time.
The Cumulative Absolute Change over Time (CACoT) metric is used to analyse how much an agent’s fitness fluctuates over time by capturing the magnitude of fitness changes during evolution; an agent whose fitness fluctuates by large amounts would therefore have a high CACoT. This is calculated by totalling the absolute change in fitness between each generation.
Complementary to the previous metric, the Count of Change over Time (CCoT) metric captures how often an agent’s fitness changes from one generation to the next during evolution—without capturing the magnitude of the changes; a high CCoT indicates that the fitness changes often.
For all 100 runs of each experiment, a value for each of the three metrics was calculated using the best-in-population fitness at each generation across 500,000 generations of evolution or all 1,000,000 generations for agents evolving with Continued Evolution. Statistical moments and medians are presented for each metric in Tables
6,
7, and
8.
In all experiments, non-modulatory agents have a lower mean and median SDoT, CACoT, and CCoT (Tables
6,
7, and
8, respectively) than their modulatory counterparts, indicating that evolution is more volatile for modulatory agents and that the received fitness tends to fluctuate often. The increase in volatility when agents share an environment can be observed in Figures
4 and
5, since the line graphs appear “thicker” than when agents evolve alone; this is because the fitness is fluctuating often. This volatility would partly be caused by agents reacting to the other agent’s behaviour, which may potentially be different to the previous generation; it could also be due to the mutations that occur at each generation, which would make the effect of neuromodulation stronger or weaker, depending on the strength of the mutated connections in the deliberative network. Further, agents have a lower mean and median CACoT and CCoT when evolving to solve a multi-stage task than a single-stage task, both with and without neuromodulation. The results therefore suggest that the best-in-population fitness fluctuates less and by lower amounts during evolution when agents solve a multi-stage task compared to a single-stage task. The exception is that the mean CCoT of non-modulatory agents evolving together is higher for the multi-stage task than the single-stage task. A similar trend can be seen in Table
2, as more agents solve the single-stage task than the multi-stage version—except when non-modulatory agents evolve together; this would result in more fluctuations in fitness during evolution and a higher CCoT.
Non-modulatory agents have lower variability in CACoT and CCoT, however, modulatory agents generally have a lower variability in SDoT. These findings, combined with a lower mean and median in each metric, indicate that non-modulatory agents have fewer and more predictable fluctuations in fitness with less magnitude and a higher and less predictable SDoT than in modulatory agents. Additionally, the mean, median, and variance for each metric tend to increase as environmental variability increases; the results therefore suggest that agents will experience more volatility as environmental variability increases, where volatility is likely to: be lowest in agents that evolve alone; increase when agents evolve together; be highest when agents evolve with continued evolution.
Each metric for each experiment has positive skewness, showing that the data is right-skewed; this is supported by the median being lower than the mean (except for a marginally higher median than mean for the SDoT of modulatory agents evolving with continued evolution in a multi-stage task (Table
6)). The CACoT and CCoT distributions for each experiment are highly skewed, whereas the SDoT is generally less skewed. Positive skewness indicates that agents would likely have a lower SDoT, CACoT, and CCoT than the average, as the distribution is skewed by higher values; agents would therefore be expected to have a lower CACoT and CCoT than the observed mean and median. Further, the skewness and kurtosis of each metric is generally lower in modulatory agents than in non-modulatory agents; the values for each metric would be less likely to be extreme and more likely to be symmetrical around the mean, with outlier values being less likely in modulatory agents than non-modulatory agents.
Further to the analysis of fitness in Section
6.1, a Shapiro-Wilk test was conducted to detect normality in the SDoT, CACoT, and CCoT distributions for each experiment;
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for each test, indicating non-normality. Wilcox Signed Rank statistical tests (one two-tailed (
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) and two one-tailed tests (
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,
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)) were then performed; the results are presented in Table
4. The two-tailed tests show that for each experiment, there is a significant difference between the metric for non-modulatory and modulatory agents (except for the SDoT of agents evolving together to solve a multi-stage task), as
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in each test. Further, the results of the one-tailed tests with the alternative hypothesis
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show that for each experiment, there is a significant directional difference in the medians of the two distributions, where the metric for non-modulatory (
mn) agents is significantly lower than modulatory agents (
mm); each
p-value is below 0.05, thus the null-hypothesis that there is no directional difference in medians can be rejected. The final one-tailed tests with the alternative hypothesis
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show no significant difference.
Overall, this analysis shows that modulatory agents experience more evolutionary volatility, which also tends to increase with environmental variability; as the environment gets more unpredictable and uncertain due to the unknowable actions of others, fitness tends to fluctuate more. There does, however, seem to be a tradeoff between fitness and volatility; despite this higher level of evolutionary volatility, modulatory agents are observed to have a higher mean fitness than non-modulatory agents (Table
4) and achieve their goals more often.
6.4 Analysing the Modulatory Neurons in the Neural Networks
To understand the effect of behavioural plasticity via neuromodulation further, the arrangement of modulatory neurons that evolve in the agents were examined to see whether any patterns emerge. For each of the 100 runs of each experiment, the deliberative network for the single best-in-population agent after evolution was recorded for comparison.
Table
9 presents the most common configuration of modulatory neurons evolved in the deliberative networks in each experiment, broken down into agents that do and do not achieve the goal. It is worth noting that the frequency of these common configurations is low in comparison to the total number of agents that have and have not achieved their goal (e.g., six agents had a common configuration out of 85 that achieved their goal when evolving alone to solve a single-stage task). As such, no configuration leads agents to achieve their goal or not.
It is therefore apparent that agents can achieve their goal in many different ways, with different numbers of modulatory neurons in each layer and in different arrangements. It is not clear whether all modulatory neurons in these configurations are used or beneficial—some may be redundant if the surrounding weights are near zero values. Saying this, no agent was observed to evolve a neural network with either zero modulatory neurons or the maximum out of a possible 18—each agent evolved a deliberative neural network with at least three modulatory neurons. This suggests that there is no obvious link between the number or configuration of modulatory neurons and either the success of an agent, the behaviours that the agent switches between, the stimuli that affects when modulation occurs, the type of environment it evolves in, or the task in which it has to solve. Because modulatory neurons can regulate neural network activity locally, this can potentially make goal-achieving behaviours (such as moving towards Water when a Stone is being carried, potentially bypassing the need to learn the negative association with the river) become accessible early on in evolution—without the agent needing to encode that exact knowledge directly in the network. This could be an explanation of why neuromodulation increases the mean best-in-population faster than in non-modulatory agents in Figures
4 and
5. Further, agents did not converge to one single “successful” or “unsuccessful” configuration of modulatory neurons—modulatory neurons can be arranged in a number of different ways to have a positive effect on agent evolution and fitness.