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HiGRN: A Hierarchical Graph Recurrent Network for Global Sea Surface Temperature Prediction

Published: 21 July 2023 Publication History

Abstract

Sea surface temperature (SST) is one critical parameter of global climate change, and accurate SST prediction is important to various applications, e.g., weather forecasting, fishing directions, and disaster warnings. The global ocean system is unified and complex, and the SST patterns in different oceanic regions are highly diverse and correlated. However, existing data-driven SST prediction methods mainly consider the local patterns within a certain oceanic region, e.g., El Nino region and the Black sea. It is challenging but necessary to model the global SST correlations rather than that in a specific region to enhance the prediction accuracy of SST. In this work, we proposed a new method called Hierarchical Graph Recurrent Network (HiGRN) to address the issue. First, to learn the dynamic and diverse local SST patterns of specific locations, we design an adaptive node embedding with self-learned parameters to learn various SST patterns. Then we develop a hierarchical cluster generator to aggregate the locations with similar patterns into regional clusters and utilize a graph convolution network to learn the spatial correlations among these clusters. Finally, we introduce a multi-level attention mechanism to fuse the local patterns and regional correlations, and the output is fed into a recurrent network to achieve SST predictions. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets show that our method largely outperforms the state-of-the-art SST prediction methods. The source code is available at https://github.com/Neoyanghc/HiGRN.

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Published In

cover image ACM Transactions on Intelligent Systems and Technology
ACM Transactions on Intelligent Systems and Technology  Volume 14, Issue 4
August 2023
481 pages
ISSN:2157-6904
EISSN:2157-6912
DOI:10.1145/3596215
  • Editor:
  • Huan Liu
Issue’s Table of Contents

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Association for Computing Machinery

New York, NY, United States

Publication History

Published: 21 July 2023
Online AM: 22 May 2023
Accepted: 14 May 2023
Revised: 22 April 2023
Received: 04 December 2022
Published in TIST Volume 14, Issue 4

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Author Tags

  1. Sea surface temperature prediction
  2. graph neural networks
  3. spatial-temporal modeling
  4. hierarchical correlation

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  • Research-article

Funding Sources

  • National Natural Science Foundation of China
  • National Key R&D Program of China
  • Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities
  • Open Research Projects of Zhejiang Lab

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