research-article

Scenario modelling to support industry strategic planning and decision making

Authors:

Stephen T. GarnettAuthors Info & Claims

Environmental Modelling & Software, Volume 55, Issue C

Pages 120 - 131

Published: 01 May 2014 Publication History

Abstract

The Pastoral Properties Futures Simulator (PPFS) is a dynamic systems model, developed within a participatory action research partnership with the pastoral industry of Australia's Northern Territory. The model was purpose-built to support the industry's strategic planning capacity in the face of environmental, market and institutional uncertainty. The mediated modelling process sought to maximise social learning of industry stakeholders. Simulations were conducted using scenarios representing combinations of climatic, market, institutional and technological assumptions. Stochastic parameters included rainfall and product prices. Economic and environmental performance of model farms, including greenhouse gas emissions, were estimated. A critical evaluation of the tool finds the PPFS fit for purpose. However, limitations include lack of output validation, small number of scenarios and simplistic treatment of environmental impact dimensions. With further development, the PPFS can provide a platform (a) to assist with industry planning across the whole of Northern Australia and beyond, and (b) for policy analysis and development in the context of the Australian pastoral industry. A dynamic simulation model was developed for the pastoral industry in Australia.Mediated modelling supported participatory integrated assessment.The model was implemented in Stella software.A detailed model evaluation is provided based on Jakeman et al. (2006).The prototype model has potential for ongoing development and application.

References

[1]

ABARE, Farm Survey Data for the Beef, Slaughter Lambs and Sheep Industries, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Canberra, 2009. www.abareconomics.com/ame/mla/mla.asp

[2]

ABS, Australian Social Trends, 2004. Catalogue Number 4102.0, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra, 2004.

[3]

ABS, State and Territory Statistical Indicators, 2012. Catalogue Number 1367.0, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra, 2012.

[4]

ABS, Average Weekly Earnings, Australia, February 2012. Catalogue Number 6302.0, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra, 2012.

[5]

AIP, Terminal Gates Prices, Australian Institute of Petroleum, Sydney, 2011. www.aip.com.au/pricing/tgp/index.htm

[6]

G.E. Allan, R. Southgate, Fire regimes in the spinifex landscape of Australia, in: Flammable Australia. The Fire Regimes and Biodiversity of a Continent, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2002, pp. 145-176.

[7]

M. Amer, T.U. Daim, A. Jetter, A¿review of scenario planning, Futures, 46 (2013) 23-40.

[8]

J.R. Anderson, Simulation: methodology and application in agricultural economics, Rev. Mark. Agric. Econ., 42 (1974) 3-55.

[9]

L. Andersson, J.A. Olsson, B. Arheimer, A. Jonsson, Use of participatory scenario modelling as platforms in stakeholder dialogues, Water SA, 34 (2008) 439-447.

[10]

P. Antunes, R. Santos, N. Videira, Participatory decision making for sustainable development the use of mediated modeling techniques, Land Use Policy, 23 (2006) 44-52.

[11]

R.M. Argent, An overview of model integration for environmental applications-components, frameworks and semantics, Environ. Modell. Softw., 19 (2004) 219-234.

[12]

A. Ash, M. Stafford Smith, Pastoralism in tropical rangelands: seizing the opportunity to change, Rangel. J., 25 (2003) 113-127.

[13]

C.A. Aumann, Constructing model credibility in the context of policy appraisal, Environ. Modell. Softw., 26 (2011) 258-265.

Digital Library

[14]

N.D. Bennett, B.F.W. Croke, G. Guariso, J.H.A. Guillaume, S.H. Hamilton, A.J. Jakeman, S. Marsili-Libelli, L.T.H. Newham, J.P. Norton, C. Perrin, S.A. Pierce, B. Robson, R. Seppelt, A.A. Voinov, B.D. Fath, V. Andreassian, Characterising performance of environmental models, Environ. Modell. Softw., 40 (2013) 1-20.

Digital Library

[15]

P.A. Berger, Generating agricultural landscapes for alternative futures analysis: a multiple attribute decision making model, Trans. GIS, 10 (2006) 103-120.

[16]

BOM (Bureau of Meteorology), Climate Data Online, 2010. www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/index.shtml

[17]

R. Bradfield, G. Wright, G. Burt, G. Cairns, K. Van Der Heijden, The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning, Futures, 37 (2005) 795-812.

[18]

E.J. Brown Gaddis, H.H. Falk, C. Ginger, A. Voinov, Effectiveness of a participatory modeling effort to identify and advance community water resource goals in St. Albans, Vermont, Environ. Modell. Softw., 25 (2010) 1428-1438.

Digital Library

[19]

M. Brugnach, A. Tagg, F. Keil, W.J. de Lange, Uncertainty matters: computer models at the science-policy interface, Water Resour. Manag., 21 (2007) 1075-1090.

[20]

B.P. Bryant, R.J. Lempert, Thinking inside the box: a participatory, computer-assisted approach to scenario discovery, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, 77 (2010) 34-49.

[21]

N.D. Burrows, B. Ward, A.D. Robinson, G. Behn, Fuel dynamics and fire behaviour in spinifex grasslands of the western desert, in: Bushfire Conference, Life in a Fire-prone Environment: Translating Science into Practice. Brisbane, 6-9 June 2006, 2006. www.griffith.edu.au/conference/bushfire2006/pdf/fuel-dynamics-and-fire-behaviour.pdf

[22]

D.H. Cobon, G.S. Stone, J.O. Carter, J.C. Scanlan, N.R. Toombs, X. Zhang, J. Willcocks, G.M. McKeon, The climate change risk management matrix for the grazing industry of northern Australia, Rangel. J., 31 (2009) 31-49.

[23]

N. Collier, B.J. Austin, C.J.A. Bradshaw, C.R. McMahon, Turning pests into profits: introduced buffalo provide multiple benefits to indigenous people of northern Australia, Hum. Ecol., 39 (2011) 155-164.

[24]

N. Collier, M. Sandker, S.T. Garnett, B.M. Campbell, J. Sayer, A.K. Boedhihartono, Science for action: the use of scoping models in conservation and development, Environ. Sci. Policy, 14 (2011) 628-638.

[25]

R. Costanza, M. Ruth, Using dynamic modeling to scope environmental problems and build consensus, Environ. Manag., 22 (1998) 183-195.

[26]

R. Costanza, D. Duplisea, U. Kautsky, Ecological modelling on modelling ecological and economic systems with STELLA, Ecol. Modell., 110 (1998) 1-4.

[27]

R. Costanza, S. Gottlieb, Modelling ecological and economic systems with STELLA: part II, Ecol. Modell., 112 (1998) 81-84.

[28]

R. Costanza, A. Voinov, Modeling ecological and economic systems with STELLA: part III, Ecol. Modell., 143 (2001) 1-7.

[29]

CSIRO and BOM (Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Research Organization - Bureau of Meteorology), Climate Change in Australia: Technical Report 2007, CSIRO Publishing, Melbourne, Australia, 2007. climatechangeinaustralia.com.au/

[30]

J. De Kraker, C. Kroeze, P. Kirschner, Computer models as social learning tools in participatory integrated assessment, Int. J. Agric. Sustain., 9 (2011) 297-309.

[31]

G.J. Doole, D.J. Pannell, A¿process for the development and application of simulation models in applied economics, Aust. J. Agric. Resour. Econ., 57 (2013) 79-103.

[32]

DPIFM (Department of Primary Industry, Fisheries and Mines, Northern Territory Government), Factsheet 1: NT Pastoral Industry and Climate Change Overview, 2008. www.nt.gov.au/d/Content/File/p/Climate_Change/CCFS01.pdf

[33]

DRDPIFR (Department of Regional Development, Primary Industry, Fisheries and Resources, Northern Territory Government), NT Plant Industries Profile 2007. Information Sheet IS60, 2008. www.nt.gov.au/d/Primary_Industry/Content/File/horticulture/IS60_NT_Plant_Industries_Profile.pdf

[34]

DRDPIFR (Department of Regional Development, Primary Industry, Fisheries and Resources, Northern Territory Government), Annual Report 2008-2009, 2009. www.nt.gov.au/d/Content/File/p/AR/AR_2009.pdf

[35]

DRDPIFR (Department of Regional Development, Primary Industry, Fisheries and Resources, Northern Territory Government), Growing Our Primary Industries, 2009. www.nt.gov.au/d/Content/File/p/pi/growingourPI_21_10.pdf

[36]

A.G. Drucker, S.T. Garnett, M.K. Luckert, G.M. Crowley, N. Gobius, Manager-based valuations of alternative fire management regimes on Cape York Peninsula, Australia, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 17 (2008) 660-673.

[37]

EIO (Energy Information Organization), Annual Energy Outlook 2008, 2008. www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/archive/aeo08/index.html

[38]

G. Fitzhardinge, Australia's rangelands: a future vision, Rangel. J., 34 (2012) 33-45.

[39]

B. Foran, Sifting the future from the past: a personal assessment of trends impacting the Australian rangelands, Rangel. J., 29 (2007) 3-11.

[40]

Garnaut Climate Change Review, Targets and Trajectories: Supplementary Draft Report, 2008. www.garnautreview.org.au/CA25734E0016A131/WebObj/GarnautReviewTargetsandtrajectories/$File/Garnaut%20Review%20Targets%20and%20trajectories.pdf

[41]

S.T. Garnett, J.C.Z. Woinarski, G.M. Crowley, A.S. Kutt, Biodiversity conservation in Australian tropical rangelands, in: Wild Rangelands: Conserving Wildlife While Maintaining Livestock in Semi-arid Ecosystems, Blackwell Scientific, London, 2010, pp. 191-234.

[42]

B.F. Giannetti, S.H. Bonilla, C.C. Silva, C.M.V.B. Almeida, The reliability of experts' opinions in constructing a composite environmental index: the case of ESI 2005, J.¿Environ. Manag., 90 (2009) 2448-2459.

[43]

R. Greiner, The potential for a conservation economy in the tropical savannas based on 'payments for environmental services', in: North Australian Political Economy, Charles Darwin University, Darwin, 2010, pp. 163-179.

[44]

R. Greiner, I. Gordon, C. Cocklin, Ecosystem services from tropical savannas: economic opportunities through payments for environmental services, Rangel. J., 31 (2009) 51-59.

[45]

S. Griffon, D. Auclair, A. Nespoulous, Visualising Changes in Agricultural Landscapes, Springer, 2010.

[46]

B. Gueneralp, Y. Barlas, Dynamic modelling of a shallow freshwater lake for ecological and economic sustainability, Ecol. Modell., 167 (2003) 115-138.

[47]

S. Heckbert, J. Davies, G. Cook, J. McIvor, G. Bastin, A. Liedloff, Land Management for Emissions Offsets on Indigenous Lands, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, Townsville, Qld, 2008. www.csiro.au/files/files/pnpo.pdf

[48]

S.M. Howden, S.J. Crimp, C.J. Stokes, Climate change and Australian livestock systems: impacts, research and policy issues, Aust. J. Exp. Agric., 48 (2008) 780-788.

[49]

L. Hughes, Climate change and Australia: trends, projections and impacts, Aust. Ecol., 28 (2003) 423-443.

[50]

L.P. Hunt, Opportunities for the future in Australia's grazed rangelands, Rangel. J., 25 (2003) 183-195.

[51]

IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1997.

[52]

IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change), Climate Change 2001: the Scientific Basis, in: Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2001.

[53]

ISEE Systems, Inc, STELLA Systems Thinking for Education and Research, 2009. www.iseesystems.com/softwares/Education/StellaSoftware.aspx

[54]

A.J. Jakeman, R.A. Letcher, J.P. Norton, Ten iterative steps in development and evaluation of environmental models, Environ. Modell. Softw., 21 (2006) 602-614.

Digital Library

[55]

T. Jamal, M. Borges, R. Figueiredo, Systems-based modeling for participatory tourism planning and destination management, Tour. Anal., 9 (2004) 77-89.

[56]

S. Janssen, M.K. van Ittersum, Assessing farm innovations and responses to policies: a review of bio-economic farm models, Agric. Syst., 94 (2007) 622-636.

[57]

I.R. Johnson, Testing and evaluating large-scale agricultural simulation models, in: MODSIM2011, 19th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation -Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand; Perth, WA; Australia; 12-16 December 2011, 2011, pp. 84-96.

[58]

T. Jones, J. Glasson, D. Wood, Regional planning and resilient futures: destination modeling and tourism development-'The case of the Ningaloo Coastal region in Western Australia', in: CAUTHE 2010: Tourism and Hospitality: Challenge the Limits, 2010, pp. 720.

[59]

T. Jones, D. Wood, M. Hughes, T. Pham, D. Pamdubi, R. Spurr, L. Dwyer, M. Deery, L. Fredline, Tourism Destination Modeling: Building a Sustainable Planning Tool for Australian Tourism Destinations, Sustainable Tourism CRC, Gold Coast, Australia, 2010. www.crctourism.com.au/BookShop/BookDetail.aspx?d=720

[60]

H. Kassa, B. Campbell, M. Sandewall, M. Kebede, Y. Tesfaye, G. Dessie, A. Seifu, M. Tadesse, E. Garedew, K. Sandewall, Building future scenarios and uncovering persisting challenges of participatory forest management in Chilimo forest, central Ethiopia, J.¿Environ. Manag., 90 (2009) 1004-1013.

[61]

R.A. Kelly, A.J. Jakeman, O. Barreteau, M.E. Borsuk, S. ElSawah, S.H. Hamilton, H.J. Henriksen, S. Kuikka, H.R. Maier, A.E. Rizzoli, H. van Delden, A.A. Voinov, Selecting among five common modelling approaches for integrated environmental assessment and management, Environ. Modell. Softw., 47 (2013) 159-181.

Digital Library

[62]

T. Krueger, T. Page, K. Hubacek, L. Smith, K. Hiscock, The role of expert opinion in environmental modelling, Environ. Modell. Softw., 36 (2012) 4-18.

Digital Library

[63]

A. Kutt, L. Felderhof, J. VanDerWal, P. Stone, G. Perkins, Chapter 04: terrestrial ecosystems of northern Australia, in: Northern Australia Land and Water Science Review 2009, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Victoria, 2009. www.nalwt.gov.au/files/Chapter_04-Terrestrial_ecosystems.pdf

[64]

J.H. Kwakkel, E. Pruyt, Exploratory modeling and analysis, an approach for model-based foresight under deep uncertainty, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change (2012).

[65]

E. Lagabrielle, A. Botta, W. Daré, D. David, S. Aubert, C. Fabricius, Modelling with stakeholders to integrate biodiversity into land-use planning - lessons learned in Réunion Island (Western Indian Ocean), Environ. Modell. Softw., 25 (2010) 1413-1427.

Digital Library

[66]

J. Landsberg, C. James, S. Morton, T. Hobbs, J. Stol, A. Drew, H. Tongway, The Effects of Artificial Sources of Water on Rangeland Biodiversity: Final Report to the Biodiversity Convention and Strategy Section of the Biodiversity Group, Environment Australia, Environment Australia and CSIRO, Canberra, 1997.

[67]

R. Law, S.T. Garnett, Understanding Carbon in the Northern Territory. An Analysis of Future Land Use Scenarios Using the National Carbon Accounting Tool, School for Environmental Research, Charles Darwin University, 2009. www.nt.gov.au/nreta/water/drmac/pdf/ncat_final.pdf

[68]

Y. Liu, H. Gupta, E. Springer, T. Wagener, Linking science with environmental decision making: experiences from an integrated modeling approach to supporting sustainable water resources management, Environ. Modell. Softw., 23 (2008) 846-858.

Digital Library

[69]

P. Martin, T. Van Mellor, S. Hooper, Australian Beef 07.1. Live Cattle Export Trade. Importance to Northern and Southern Australian Beef Industries, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics: ACT, 2007. www.abare.gov.au/publications_html/livestock/livestock_07/beef07.pdf

[70]

G.M. McKeon, G.S. Stone, J.I. Syktus, J.O. Carter, N.R. Flood, D.G. Ahrens, D.N. Bruget, C.R. Chilcott, D.H. Cobon, R.A. Cowley, S.J. Crimp, G.W. Fraser, S.M. Howden, P.W. Johnston, J.G. Ryan, C.J. Stokes, K.A. Day, Climate change impacts on northern Australian rangeland livestock carrying capacity: a review of issues, Rangel. J., 31 (2009) 1-29.

[71]

G. McKeon, K. Day, S. Howden, J. Mott, D. Orr, W. Scattini, E. Weston, Northern Australian savannas: management for pastoral production, J.¿Biogeogr., 17 (1990) 355-372.

[72]

R. McTaggart, Principles for participatory action research, Adult Educ. Q., 41 (1991) 168-187.

[73]

C.P. Miller, T.G.H. Stockwell, Sustaining productive pasture in the tropics. 4. Augmenting native pasture with legumes, Trop. Grassl., 25 (1991) 98-103.

[74]

H. Ngo, G. Owens, Gross Margins for Horticultural Crops in the NT - General Guidelines, Northern Territory Government, Darwin, 2004.

[75]

Northern Territory Treasury, Northern Territory Population Projections, 2009, 2009. www.nt.gov.au/ntt/economics/nt_population.shtml

[76]

NTCA (Northern Territory Cattlemen's Association), Year in Review 2008/9, 2009. www.ntca.org.au/_assets/NTCA_08_09_Part1.pdf

[77]

NTG (Northern Territory Government), Factsheet 3: Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the NT Pastoral Industry, Department of Primary Industry, Fisheries and Mines, 2008. www.nt.gov.au/d/Content/File/p/Climate_Change/CCFS03.pdf

[78]

NTG (Northern Territory Government), Territory Quarterly. International Edition, 2010. www.theterritory.com.au/resources/img/pdf/publications/territory_quarterly/TQ-int-english.pdf

[79]

NTG (Northern Territory Government), Pastoral Land Act, 2011. www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/nt/consol_act/pla142/

[80]

M.H. O'Connor, M. MacFarlane, J. Fisher, D. MacRae, T. Lefroy, The Avon river Basin in 2050: scenario planning in the western Australian, Aust. J. Agric. Res., 56 (2005) 563-580.

[81]

P. O'Reagain, J. Scanlan, Sustainable management for rangelands in a variable climate: evidence and insights from northern Australia, Animal, 7 (2013) 68-78.

[82]

P. O'Reagain, J. Bushell, B. Holmes, Managing for rainfall variability: long-term profitability of different grazing strategies in a northern Australian tropical savanna, Animal Prod. Sci., 51 (2011) 210-224.

[83]

T. Oxley, S. Leigo, P. Hausler, A. Bubb, N. MacDonald, Pastoral Industry Survey 2004: NT Wide, Department of Primary Industry, Fisheries and Mines, Northern Territory Government, Darwin, 2006. www.nt.gov.au/d/Primary_Industry/Content/File/PastoralSurvey_ntwide.pdf

[84]

G.D. Peterson, G.S. Cumming, S.R. Carpenter, Scenario planning: a tool for conservation in an uncertain world, Conserv. Biol., 17 (2003) 358-366.

[85]

J.C. Petherick, Animal welfare issues associated with extensive livestock production: the northern Australian beef cattle industry, Appl. Animal Behav. Sci., 92 (2005) 211-234.

[86]

C.J.C. Phillips, J. Wojciechowska, J. Meng, N. Cross, Animal Int. J. Animal Biosci., 3 (2009) 1152-1166.

[87]

W.M. Post, K.C. Kwon, Soil carbon sequestration and land-use change: processes and potential, Glob. Change Biol., 6 (2000) 317-327.

[88]

C.J. Puig, C. Huchery, R. Greiner, N. Collier, S. Garnett, I. Perkins, Pastoral Properties Futures Simulator. NTCA Future Project: Scoping Future Scenarios and Building Innovative Partnerships for Northern Territory Pastoral Lands, School for Environmental Research. Charles Darwin University, Darwin, 2009.

[89]

C.J. Puig, R. Greiner, C. Huchery, I. Perkins, L. Bowen, N. Collier, S.T. Garnett, Beyond cattle: potential futures of the pastoral industry in the Northern Territory, Rangel. J., 33 (2011) 181-194.

[90]

P. Reason, H. Bradbury, Handbook of Action Research: Participative Inquiry and Practice, Sage Publications Ltd, 2001.

[91]

G.A. Robertson, Global influences on rangelands of Australia, Rangel. J., 25 (2003) 128-139.

[92]

S. Robinson, Simulation: the Practice of Model Development and Use, John Wiley & Sons Ltd, Chichester (UK), 2004.

Digital Library

[93]

J. Russell-Smith, B.P. Murphy, C.P. Meyer, G.D. Cook, S. Maier, A.C. Edwards, J. Schatz, P. Brocklehurst, Improving estimates of savanna burning emissions for greenhouse accounting in northern Australia: limitations, challenges, applications, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 18 (2009) 1-18.

[94]

J.D. Salter, C. Campbell, M. Journeay, S.R. Sheppard, The digital workshop: exploring the use of interactive and immersive visualisation tools in participatory planning, J.¿Environ. Manag., 90 (2009) 2090-2101.

[95]

M. Sandker, B.M. Campbell, Z. Nzooh, T. Sunderland, V. Amougou, L. Defo, J. Sayer, Exploring the effectiveness of integrated conservation and development interventions in a central African forest landscape, Biodivers. Conserv., 18 (2009) 2875-2892.

[96]

M. Sandker, A. Suwarno, B.M. Campbell, Will forests remain in the face of oil palm expansion? Simulating change in Malinau, Indonesia, Ecol. Soc., 12 (2007) 37. www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol12/iss2/art37/

[97]

J.C. Scanlan, N.D. MacLeod, P.J. O'Reagain, Scaling results up from a plot and paddock scale to a property - a case study from a long-term grazing experiment in northern Australia, Rangel. J., 35 (2013) 193-200.

[98]

K. Schianetz, L. Kavanagh, Sustainability indicators for tourism destinations: a complex adaptive systems approach using systemic indicator systems, J.¿Sustain. Tour., 16 (2008) 601-628.

[99]

T. Sharma, J. Carmichael, B. Klinkenberg, Integrated modeling for exploring sustainable agriculture futures, Futures, 38 (2006) 93-113.

[100]

H. Steinfield, P. Gerber, T. Wassenaar, V. Castel, C. De Haan, Livestock's Long Shadow: Environmental Issues and Options, Food and Agriculture Organisation, Rome, 2006.

[101]

R.W. Stewart, J. Fortune, Application of systems thinking to the identification, avoidance and prevention of risk, Int. J. Proj. Manag., 13 (1995) 279-286.

[102]

V.C. Tidwell, C. van den Brink, Cooperative modelling: linking science, communication and ground water planning, Ground Water, 46 (2008) 174-182.

[103]

C. Valencia-Sandoval, D.N. Flanders, R.A. Kozak, Participatory landscape planning and sustainable community development: methodological observations from a case study in rural Mexico, Landsc. Urban Plan., 94 (2010) 63-70.

[104]

F. Villa, I.N. Athanasiadis, A.E. Rizzoli, Modelling with knowledge: a review of emerging semantic approaches to environmental modelling, Environ. Modell. Softw., 24 (2009) 577-587.

Digital Library

[105]

A. Voinov, F. Bousquet, Modelling with stakeholders, Environ. Modell. Softw., 25 (2010) 1268-1281.

Digital Library

[106]

A. Voinov, C. Fitz, R. Boumans, R. Costanza, Modular ecosystem modeling, Environ. Modell. Softw., 19 (2004) 285-304.

[107]

A. Voinov, E.J.B. Gaddis, Lessons for successful participatory watershed modeling: a perspective from modeling practitioners, Ecol. Modell., 216 (2008) 197-207.

[108]

A. Volkery, T. Ribeiro, T. Henrichs, Y. Hoogeveen, Your vision or my model? Lessons from participatory land use scenario development on a European scale, Syst. Pract. Action Res., 21 (2008) 459-477.

[109]

P.A. Walker, R. Greiner, D. McDonald, V. Lyne, The tourism futures simulator: a systems thinking approach, Environ. Modell. Softw., 14 (1998) 59-67.

[110]

D. Walsh, R.A. Cowley, Looking back in time: can safe pasture utilisation rates be determined using commercial paddock data in the Northern Territory?, Rangel. J., 33 (2011) 131-142.

[111]

R.J. Williams, L.B. Hutley, G.D. Cook, J. Russell-Smith, A. Edwards, X. Chen, Assessing the carbon sequestration potential of mesic savannas in the Northern Territory, Australia: approaches, uncertainties and potential impacts of fire, Funct. Plant Biol., 31 (2004) 415-422.

[112]

E. Wollenberg, D. Edmunds, L. Buck, Anticipating Change: Scenarios as a Tool for Adaptive Forest Management: A Guide, Center for International Forestry Research, Bogor, Indonesia, 2000. http://www.cifor.cgiar.org/nc/online-library/browse/view-publication/publication/744.html

[113]

B.P. Zeigler, H. Praehofer, T.G. Kim, Theory of Modeling and Simulation, Academic Press, 2000.

Digital Library

[114]

P. Zhou, B.W. Ang, K.L. Poh, Comparing aggregating methods for constructing the composite environmental index: an objective measure, Ecol. Econ., 59 (2006) 305-311.

Cited By

Dranev YKotsemir MSyomin B(2018)Diversity of research publicationsScientometrics10.1007/s11192-018-2799-2116:3(1565-1587)Online publication date: 1-Sep-2018
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1007/s11192-018-2799-2
Timani BPeralta R(2017)Aggregated surrogate simulator for groundwater-surface water management via simulation-optimization modelingEnvironmental Modelling & Software10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.06.01496:C(210-231)Online publication date: 1-Oct-2017
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.06.014
Maier HGuillaume Jvan Delden HRiddell GHaasnoot MKwakkel J(2016)An uncertain future, deep uncertainty, scenarios, robustness and adaptationEnvironmental Modelling & Software10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.03.01481:C(154-164)Online publication date: 1-Jul-2016
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.03.014
Show More Cited By

Scenario modelling to support industry strategic planning and decision making
1. Applied computing
  1. Law, social and behavioral sciences
  2. Physical sciences and engineering

Recommendations

Assembly planning research at CSIRO Australia
ISATP '95: Proceedings of the 1995 IEEE International Symposium on Assembly and Task Planning

Abstract: A concurrent engineering research project at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation of Australia (CSIRO) is addressing the issue of concurrent planning of parts and assembly with a view to developing an integrated ...
Climate change scenario planning: A model for the integration of science and management in environmental decision-making

This qualitative case study presents an in-depth evaluation of the scenario planning process, and an exploration of factors influencing its use as an environmental decision making model. The authors explore how decision-makers and scientists within the ...
Framework for Setting the Strategy of R&D Industry in China
UKSIM '10: Proceedings of the 2010 12th International Conference on Computer Modelling and Simulation

It is generally recognized that the industry strategy to some extent is vital to allocate resources and stay harmonious with environment. Yet the traditional methods are always not fully considering of environmental uncertainties and various exogenous ...

Comments

Information & Contributors

Information

Published In

cover image Environmental Modelling & Software

Environmental Modelling & Software Volume 55, Issue C

May 2014

279 pages

ISSN:1364-8152

Issue’s Table of Contents

Copyright © The Authors.

Publisher

Elsevier Science Publishers B. V.

Netherlands

Publication History

Published: 01 May 2014

Author Tags

Qualifiers

Research-article

Contributors

Other Metrics

View Article Metrics

Bibliometrics & Citations

Bibliometrics

Article Metrics

4
Total Citations
View Citations
0
Total Downloads

Downloads (Last 12 months)0
Downloads (Last 6 weeks)0

Reflects downloads up to 16 Oct 2024

Other Metrics

View Author Metrics

Citations

Cited By

Dranev YKotsemir MSyomin B(2018)Diversity of research publicationsScientometrics10.1007/s11192-018-2799-2116:3(1565-1587)Online publication date: 1-Sep-2018
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1007/s11192-018-2799-2
Timani BPeralta R(2017)Aggregated surrogate simulator for groundwater-surface water management via simulation-optimization modelingEnvironmental Modelling & Software10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.06.01496:C(210-231)Online publication date: 1-Oct-2017
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.06.014
Maier HGuillaume Jvan Delden HRiddell GHaasnoot MKwakkel J(2016)An uncertain future, deep uncertainty, scenarios, robustness and adaptationEnvironmental Modelling & Software10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.03.01481:C(154-164)Online publication date: 1-Jul-2016
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.03.014
Voinov AKolagani NMcCall MGlynn PKragt MOstermann FPierce SRamu P(2016)Modelling with stakeholders - Next generationEnvironmental Modelling & Software10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.11.01677:C(196-220)Online publication date: 1-Mar-2016
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.11.016

View Options

View options

Get Access

Login options

Check if you have access through your login credentials or your institution to get full access on this article.

Full Access

Get this Publication

Media

Figures

Other

Tables

View Issue’s Table of Contents