Mathematical model estimation and prediction application of Covid-19 infection in Indonesia using Levenberg-Marquardt Algorithm based on Python
Abstract
COVID-19 was originally diagnosed in Wuhan, China, in late December 2019; it subsequently expanded internationally, affecting around 7 million people and caused 300,000 deaths by May 2020. An Application that could surveillance the Covid-19 in Indonesia is needed. Therefore, we proposed a prediction application for the COVID-19 pandemic situation in Indonesia by referring to public compliance with surveillance policies using the SPCIRD model. The Levenberg Marquardt curve fitting method was chosen because it is simple and produces a reasonably good model. According the result of questionnaire and black box testing our application performed really well. The result of our SPCIRD model with Levenberg-Marquardt optimization achieved R2 with the score -1.248 in active cases, -0.235 in recovered and -3.982 in death for 281 number of iterations. We are also achieved 93.3% that agree and very agree with the application usability to understand and to predict pattern from COVID-19. It was also had 83.3\% respondent that satisfy with the prototype.
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Published: 01 January 2023
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