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Impact of climate variability and anthropogenic activity on streamflow in the Three Rivers Headwater Region, Tibetan Plateau, China

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Abstract

Under the impacts of climate variability and human activities, there is violent fluctuation for streamflow in the large basins in China. Therefore, it is crucial to separate the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow fluctuation for better water resources planning and management. In this study, the Three Rivers Headwater Region (TRHR) was chosen as the study area. Long-term hydrological data for the TRHR were collected in order to investigate the changes in annual runoff during the period of 1956–2012. The nonparametric Mann–Kendall test, moving t test, Pettitt test, Mann–Kendall–Sneyers test, and the cumulative anomaly curve were used to identify trends and change points in the hydro-meteorological variables. Change point in runoff was identified in the three basins, which respectively occurred around the years 1989 and 1993, dividing the long-term runoff series into a natural period and a human-induced period. Then, the hydrologic sensitivity analysis method was employed to evaluate the effects of climate variability and human activities on mean annual runoff for the human-induced period based on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. In the human-induced period, climate variability was the main factor that increased (reduced) runoff in LRB and YARB (YRB) with contribution of more than 90 %, while the increasing (decreasing) percentage due to human activities only accounted for less than 10 %, showing that runoff in the TRHR is more sensitive to climate variability than human activities. The intra-annual distribution of runoff shifted gradually from a double peak pattern to a single peak pattern, which was mainly influenced by atmospheric circulation in the summer and autumn. The inter-annual variation in runoff was jointly controlled by the East Asian monsoon, the westerly, and Tibetan Plateau monsoons.

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Acknowledgments

This research is jointly funded by key consulting project of Chinese Academy of Engineering (2014-XZ-31) and Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences special funding for basic scientific research (2014-YKY-003)

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China

    Chong Jiang

  2. Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing, 100875, China

    Chong Jiang

  3. State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing, 100012, China

    Chong Jiang, Daiqing Li, Yanni Gao & Linbo Zhang

  4. Key Laboratory of Regional Eco-Process and Function Assessment and State Environment Protection, Chinese Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing, 100012, China

    Chong Jiang, Daiqing Li, Yanni Gao & Linbo Zhang

  5. EAWAG, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Ueberlandstrasse 133, CH-8600, Duebendorf, Switzerland

    Wenfeng Liu

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  1. Chong Jiang
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  2. Daiqing Li
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Correspondence to Chong Jiang or Linbo Zhang.

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Jiang, C., Li, D., Gao, Y. et al. Impact of climate variability and anthropogenic activity on streamflow in the Three Rivers Headwater Region, Tibetan Plateau, China. Theor Appl Climatol 129, 667–681 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1833-7

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