Ambiguity-incorporated opinion formation model for multi-risk large-group emergency decision-making in social networks

Various decision opinions comprise the foundation of emergency decision-making. However, decision-makers have difficulty establishing trust relationships within a short time because of decision-making groups being temporary. The paper aims to develop an ambiguity-incorporated opinion formation model that considers ambiguous opinions on relevant risks from a psychological perspective during the consensus reaching process.

Addressing the problem of forming a consensus decision-making opinion in an ambiguous environment and relevant risk opinions, different social network structures were first proposed. Subsequently, psychological factors affecting the decision-makers' perception of ambiguous opinions and tolerance for ambiguity under the multi-risk factors were considered. Accordingly, an ambiguity-incorporated opinion formation model was proposed by considering the ambiguity and relevant opinions on multi-risk factors.

A comparison between the ambiguity-incorporated opinion formation model and the F–J model illustrates the superiority of the proposed model. By applying the two types of network structures in the simulation process, the results indicate that the convergence of opinions will be affected by different decision-making network structures.

The research provides a novel opinion formation model incorporating psychological factors and relevant opinions in the emergency decision-making process and provides decision support for practitioners to quantify the influence of ambiguous opinions. The research allows the practitioners to be aware of the influence of different social network structures on opinion formation and avoid inaccurate opinion formation due to unreasonable grouping in emergency decision-making.