Article

Strategies for containing an influenza pandemic: the case of Italy

Authors:

Stefano Merler,

Giuseppe Jurman,

Cesare Furlanello,

Caterina Rizzo,

Antonino Bella,

Marta Luisa Ciofi degli AttiAuthors Info & Claims

BIONETICS '06: Proceedings of the 1st international conference on Bio inspired models of network, information and computing systems

Pages 11 - es

https://doi.org/10.1145/1315843.1315857

Published: 11 December 2006 Publication History

Abstract

In this paper we introduce an individual based model for simulating the spread of an emerging influenza pandemic in Italy and testing the effectiveness of some containing strategies including vaccination, antiviral prophylaxis and quarantine measures to increase social distances. Our results show that while the probability of interrupting a large outbreak is negligible, a combination of the control measures can be effective in reducing the incidence of infection. In particular, in the worst case, an incidence reduction from about 50% to about 10% can be hopefully achieved.

References

[1]

W. P. Glezen, "Emerging infections: pandemic influenza," Epidemiol Rev, vol. 18, no. 1, pp. 64--76, 1996.

[2]

K. S. Li, Y. Guan, J. Wang, G. J. Smith, K. M. Xu, L. Duan, A. P. Rahardjo, P. Puthavathana, C. Buranathai, T. D. Nguyen, A. Estoepangestie, A. Chaisingh, P. Auewarakul, H. T. Long, N. T. Hanh, R. J. Webby, L. L. Poon, H. Chen, K. F. Shortridge, K. Y. Yuen, R. G. Webster, and J. S. Peiris, "Genesis of a highly pathogenic and potentially pandemic H5N1 influenza virus in eastern Asia," Nature, vol. 430, no. 6996, pp. 209--13, July 2004.

[3]

World Health Organization, "Epidemiology of WHO-confirmed human cases of avian influenza A(H5N1) infection," Wkly Epidemiol Rec, vol. 81, no. 26, pp. 249--57, June 2006.

[4]

World Health Organization, "WHO global influenza preparedness plan: the role of WHO and recommendations for national measures before and during pandemics," WHO/CDS/CSR/GIP/2005.5, 2005.

[5]

Ministero della Salute, "Piano Nazionale di preparazione e risposta ad una pandemia influenzale," Gazzetta Ufficiale, vol. 77, 2006, English version available at http://www.ministerosalute.it/imgs/C_17_pubblicazioni_511_allegato.pdf.

[6]

M. L. degli Atti, C. Rizzo, M. G. Pompa, S. Salmaso, and D. Greco, "How prepared is Europe for pandemic influenza?" Lancet, vol. 368, no. 9529, p. 25, July 2006.

[7]

E. Hak, M. J. Meijboom, and E. Buskens, "Modelling the health-economic impact of the next influenza pandemic in The Netherlands," Vaccine, 2006, {Epub ahead of print 2006 Jun 9}.

[8]

B. C. Chun, "Modelling the impact of pandemic influenza," J Prev Med Pub Health, vol. 38, no. 4, pp. 379--85, November 2005, (Korean).

[9]

M. I. Meltzer, N. J. Cox, and K. Fukuda, "The economic impact of pandemic influenza in the united states: priorities for intervention," Emerg Infect Dis, vol. 5, no. 5, pp. 659--71, September-October 1999.

[10]

R. Fock, H. Bergmann, H. Bussmann, G. Fell, E. J. Finke, U. Koch, M. Niedrig, M. Peters, K. Riedmann, D. Scholz, and A. Wirtz, "Influenza pandemic: preparedness planning in Germany," Euro Surveill, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 1--5, January 2002.

[11]

A. Doyle, I. Bonmarin, D. Levy-Bruhl, Y L. Strat, and J. C. Desenclos, "Influenza pandemic preparedness in France: modelling the impact of interventions," J Epidemiol Community Health, vol. 60, no. 5, pp. 399--404, May 2006.

[12]

K. F. Gensheimer, M. I. Meltzer, A. S. Postema, and R. Strikas, "Influenza pandemic preparedness," Emerg Infect Dis, vol. 9, no. 12, pp. 1645--8, December 2003.

[13]

M. L. van Genugten, M. L. Heijnen, and J. C. Jager, "Pandemic influenza and healthcare demand in the Netherlands: scenario analysis," Emerg Infect Dis, vol. 9, no. 5, pp. 531--8, May 2003.

[14]

L. Jennings, "New Zealand's preparedness for the next influenza pandemic," N Z Med J, vol. 118, no. 1211, p. U1343, March 2005.

[15]

N. M. Ferguson, D. A. Cummings, C. Fraser, J. C. Cajka, P. C. Cooley, and D. S. Burke, "Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic," Nature, 2006, {Epub ahead of print 2005 Apr 26}.

[16]

N. M. Ferguson, D. A. Cummings, S. Cauchemez, C. Fraser, S. Riley, A. Meeyai, S. Iamsirithaworn, and D. S. Burke, "Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia," Nature, vol. 437, pp. 209--214, 2005, {Epub ahead of print 2005 Aug 3}.

[17]

T. C. Germann, K. Kadau, I. M. J. Longini, and C. A. Macken, "Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States," Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, vol. 103, no. 15, pp. 5935--4, April 2006, {Epub ahead of print 2005 Apr 3}.

[18]

I. M. J. Longini, A. Nizam, S. Xu, K. Ungchusak, W. Hanshaoworakul, D. A. Cummings, and M. E. Halloran, "Containing pandemic influenza at the source," Science, vol. 309, no. 5737, pp. 1083--7, August 2005, {Epub ahead of print 2005 Aug 3}.

[19]

R. Daems, G. Del Giudice, and R. Rappuoli, "Anticipating crisis: towards a pandemic flu vaccination strategy through alignment of public health and industrial policy," Vaccine, vol. 23, no. 50, pp. 5732--42, December 2005.

Cited By

Goh KChen YChow C(2014)Location-Based Data Visualisation Tool for Tuberculosis and DengueEmerging Research and Trends in Interactivity and the Human-Computer Interface10.4018/978-1-4666-4623-0.ch013(260-282)Online publication date: 2014
https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-4666-4623-0.ch013
(2013)Compilation of ReferencesEmerging Research and Trends in Interactivity and the Human-Computer Interface10.4018/978-1-4666-4623-0.chcrf(0-0)Online publication date: 31-Oct-2013
https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-4666-4623-0.chcrf

Recommendations

Simulation of strategies for containing pandemic influenza
WSC '10: Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference

We use a stochastic simulation model of pandemic influenza to investigate realistic intervention strategies that can be used in reaction to developing outbreaks. The model is constructed to represent a typical midsized North American city. Our model ...
Evaluation of containment and mitigation strategies for an influenza A pandemic in China

The world is still in heightened awareness of the potential threat of another influenza pandemic, although it has been 5 years since the 2009 influenza A H1N1 pandemic. Evaluation of the adopted intervention strategies for handling the 2009 H1N1 ...
A pandemic influenza modeling and visualization tool

The National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza outlines a plan for community response to a potential pandemic. In this outline, state and local communities are charged with enhancing their preparedness. In order to help public health officials better ...

Comments

Information & Contributors

Information

Published In

cover image ACM Conferences

BIONETICS '06: Proceedings of the 1st international conference on Bio inspired models of network, information and computing systems

December 2006

226 pages

ISBN:1424404630

DOI:10.1145/1315843

General Chairs:
Tatsuya Suda
University of California, Irvine, USA and NTT DoCoMo Inc., Japan
,
Christian Tschudin
Univ. of Basel, Switzerland

Copyright © 2006 ACM.

Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than ACM must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Request permissions from [email protected]

Sponsors

ACM: Association for Computing Machinery

Publisher

Association for Computing Machinery

New York, NY, United States

Publication History

Published: 11 December 2006

Permissions

Request permissions for this article.

Request Permissions

Check for updates

Qualifiers

Article

Conference

BIONETICS06

Sponsor:

ACM

BIONETICS06: Bio-Inspired Computer Science and Applications 2006

December 11 - 13, 2006

Cavalese, Italy

Contributors

Other Metrics

View Article Metrics

Bibliometrics & Citations

Bibliometrics

Article Metrics

2
Total Citations
View Citations
143
Total Downloads

Downloads (Last 12 months)0
Downloads (Last 6 weeks)0

Reflects downloads up to 09 Nov 2024

Other Metrics

View Author Metrics

Citations

Cited By

Goh KChen YChow C(2014)Location-Based Data Visualisation Tool for Tuberculosis and DengueEmerging Research and Trends in Interactivity and the Human-Computer Interface10.4018/978-1-4666-4623-0.ch013(260-282)Online publication date: 2014
https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-4666-4623-0.ch013
(2013)Compilation of ReferencesEmerging Research and Trends in Interactivity and the Human-Computer Interface10.4018/978-1-4666-4623-0.chcrf(0-0)Online publication date: 31-Oct-2013
https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-4666-4623-0.chcrf

View Options

Get Access

Login options

Check if you have access through your login credentials or your institution to get full access on this article.

Full Access

Get this Publication

View options

PDF

View or Download as a PDF file.

eReader

View online with eReader.

Media

Figures

Other

Tables

View Table of Contents