research-article

A model for popularity dynamics to predict hot articles in discussion blog

Authors:

Hwan-Gue ChoAuthors Info & Claims

ICUIMC '12: Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Ubiquitous Information Management and Communication

Article No.: 10, Pages 1 - 8

https://doi.org/10.1145/2184751.2184764

Published: 20 February 2012 Publication History

Abstract

It is interesting and informative to predict the set of articles that will be popular from the early observation stage. In this paper, we concentrate on the characteristics of hot articles and estimate the saturation point that is the earliest time the hits variation approaches zero. We have shown the statistical measures of our prediction method for popular articles, by observing the hit records from the birth time of the article. Our experiment showed that the more popular the subject article, the harder it is to identify such popular articles by observing only the early stage. The main contributions of this paper are as follows. We revealed the relationship between the amount of observation data and the predictability of popular articles. And We showed that there is a limit in predicting highly popular articles using partial knowledge. This implies the high popularity of online articles have common basic characteristics of a dynamic system that is hard to predict at the early stage.

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Cited By

Soh HHyung Hong JJeong JJeong H(2024)Long-term memory on popularity dynamics: insights from the Billboard Hot 100 chartJournal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment10.1088/1742-5468/ad4e2d2024:6(064001)Online publication date: 17-Jun-2024
https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-5468/ad4e2d
Jääskeläinen ATaimela EHeiskanen TTurunen M(2020)Predicting the success of newsProceedings of the 23rd International Conference on Academic Mindtrek10.1145/3377290.3377299(27-36)Online publication date: 29-Jan-2020
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3377290.3377299

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A model for popularity dynamics to predict hot articles in discussion blog

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Published In

cover image ACM Conferences

ICUIMC '12: Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Ubiquitous Information Management and Communication

February 2012

852 pages

ISBN:9781450311724

DOI:10.1145/2184751

Conference Chairs:
Suk-Han Lee
Sungkyunkwan University, Korea
,
Lajos Hanzo
University of Southampton, UK
,
Roslan Ismail
Universiti Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
,
Program Chairs:
Dongsoo S. Kim
Indiana University
,
Min Young Chung
Sungkyunkwan University, Korea
,
Sang-Won Lee
Sungkyunkwan University, Korea

Copyright © 2012 ACM.

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SIGAPP: ACM Special Interest Group on Applied Computing
SKKU: SUNGKYUNKWAN UNIVERSITY

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Association for Computing Machinery

New York, NY, United States

Publication History

Published: 20 February 2012

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ICUIMC '12: The 6th International Conference on Ubiquitous Information Management and Communication

February 20 - 22, 2012

Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

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Cited By

Soh HHyung Hong JJeong JJeong H(2024)Long-term memory on popularity dynamics: insights from the Billboard Hot 100 chartJournal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment10.1088/1742-5468/ad4e2d2024:6(064001)Online publication date: 17-Jun-2024
https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-5468/ad4e2d
Jääskeläinen ATaimela EHeiskanen TTurunen M(2020)Predicting the success of newsProceedings of the 23rd International Conference on Academic Mindtrek10.1145/3377290.3377299(27-36)Online publication date: 29-Jan-2020
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3377290.3377299

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