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The causal Markov condition, fact or artifact?

Published: 01 July 1996 Publication History

Abstract

This paper provides a priori cirteria for determing when a causal model is sufficiently complete to be considered a Bayesian Network, and a new representation for Bayesian Networks shown to be more computationally efficient in a wide range of circumstances than current representations.Expert Systems for domains in which uncertainty plays a major role are often built from causal models. These models are usually implemented using Baysesian Network technology under the often tacit assumption that a causal model is a satisfactory Bayesian Network of the domain. If the system produces unsatisfactory results, the causal model is usually deemed inadequate, probably containing insufficient detail.The assumption that a causal model is an appropriate Bayesian Network model is justified by invoking the so called "Causal Markov Condition". In this paper we argue that in many cases it is not the inadequacy of the causal model which produces unsatisfactory results, but rather the inappropriateness of the Causal Markov Condition itself.In this paper we introduce a new functional model of causality, the Communicating Causal Process model, and analyze the appropriatenss of the Causal Markov Condition in light of this model. This analysis yelds domain based a priori criteria for judging when the Causal Markov Condition does or does not hold, and when a Causal Model is sufficiently detailed that it can be considered a Bayesian Network.The Communicating Causal Process model also provides the basis for a new representation of Bayes Networks which shown to be more computationally efficient than current representations.

References

[1]
Elby, A. Should we explain EPR correlations causally?. Philosophy of Science, v. 59 pp.16--25 (1992)
[2]
Fung, Robert and Del Favero, Brendan. Backward Simulation in Bayesian Networks. Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Proceedings of the Tenth Conference. San Mateo, CA: Morgan Kaufmann (1994)
[3]
Lemmer, John (1993) Causal Modeling. Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Proceedings of the Ninth Conference. San Mateo, CA: Morgan Kaufmann (1993)
[4]
Pearl, Judea. Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems. San Mateo, CA: Morgan Kaufmann (1988)
[5]
Spirtes, Peter, et al. Causation, Prediction, and Search, Springer-Verlag (1993)

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Published In

cover image ACM SIGART Bulletin
ACM SIGART Bulletin  Volume 7, Issue 3
July 1996
30 pages
ISSN:0163-5719
DOI:10.1145/239616
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Association for Computing Machinery

New York, NY, United States

Publication History

Published: 01 July 1996
Published in SIGAI Volume 7, Issue 3

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  • (2016)Self-regularized causal structure discovery for trajectory-based networksJournal of Computer and System Sciences10.1016/j.jcss.2015.10.00482:4(594-609)Online publication date: 1-Jun-2016
  • (2014)Causal Structure Discovery for Spatio-temporal DataDatabase Systems for Advanced Applications10.1007/978-3-319-05810-8_16(236-250)Online publication date: 2014
  • (2007)Does non-correlation imply non-causation?International Journal of Approximate Reasoning10.1016/j.ijar.2006.09.01346:2(257-273)Online publication date: 1-Oct-2007
  • (2007)CausalityHandbook of Philosophical Logic10.1007/978-1-4020-6324-4_2(95-126)Online publication date: 2007
  • (2004)Recursive noisy OR - a rule for estimating complex probabilistic interactionsIEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part B: Cybernetics10.1109/TSMCB.2004.83442434:6(2252-2261)Online publication date: 1-Dec-2004
  • (2001)Foundations for Bayesian NetworksFoundations of Bayesianism10.1007/978-94-017-1586-7_4(75-115)Online publication date: 2001
  • (2001)A Critique of Inductive CausationSymbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning and Uncertainty10.1007/3-540-48747-6_7(68-79)Online publication date: 20-Jul-2001
  • (1999)Independence, Invariance and the Causal Markov ConditionThe British Journal for the Philosophy of Science10.1093/bjps/50.4.52150:4(521-583)Online publication date: 1-Dec-1999
  • (1999)Probabilistic temporal networksInternational Journal of Approximate Reasoning10.1016/S0888-613X(99)00009-220:3(263-291)Online publication date: 1-Mar-1999
  • (1996)Complexity, ontology, and the causal Markov assumptionACM SIGART Bulletin10.1145/264927.2649327:4(13-18)Online publication date: 1-Oct-1996

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