Causal Learning Empowered OD Prediction for Urban Planning

Predicting future origin-destination (OD) flow is essential for urban planning since it provides feedback for planning adjustment and reference for road planning. However, OD prediction for urban planning scenarios is unique as it typically lacks training data. A common practice is to refer to data from other cities, which causes the out-of-distribution (OOD) problem. A promising solution is to leverage causal information in the data. However, there are two challenges in utilizing causal information in urban planning scenarios: (a) Urban system has numerous factors, and only part of them indicate causal information. (b) The planned city development correlates with original city characteristics, therefore bringing confounding bias to the causal modelling process. In this paper, we propose designs to solve both challenges. Specifically, we first design a causal disentangled representation module to identify causal factors in attributes. Second, we adopt a variational sample re-weighting module to reduce the confounding bias. Our proposed model outperforms seven state-of-the-art baselines on three real-world datasets, achieving an average improvement of 9.59% in the MAE metric. Further in-depth analysis shows our method's robustness across different urban planning scenarios and outstanding performance in predicting extremely large OD flows, which corroborates the contribution of our designs to the urban planning field.