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Adversarial Risk Analysis

Published: 24 April 2023 Publication History

Abstract

Adversarial Risk Analysis (ARA) is a decision-theoretic alternative to game theory, applicable to corporate competition, auctions, and counterterrorism. In ARA, one builds a model for the strategic decision making of one's opponent(s), and then places subjective Bayesian distributions over unknown quantities. This structure enables the analyst to compartmentalize distinct kinds of uncertainty. Within this framework one can use standard Bayesian techniques to develop a probability distribution over the actions of the opponent. Given this distribution, the decision theorist chooses the action that maximizes expected utility.

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cover image ACM Conferences
IWSPA '23: Proceedings of the 9th ACM International Workshop on Security and Privacy Analytics
April 2023
107 pages
ISBN:9798400700996
DOI:10.1145/3579987
Permission to make digital or hard copies of part or all of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for third-party components of this work must be honored. For all other uses, contact the Owner/Author.

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Association for Computing Machinery

New York, NY, United States

Publication History

Published: 24 April 2023

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Author Tags

  1. auctions
  2. bayesian models
  3. behavioral economics
  4. game theory

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CODASPY '23
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