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Error bounds for performance prediction in queuing networks

Editor: Anita K. Jones Authors:

Rajan SuriAuthors Info & Claims

ACM Transactions on Computer Systems (TOCS), Volume 3, Issue 3

Pages 227 - 254

https://doi.org/10.1145/3959.3960

Published: 01 August 1985 Publication History

Abstract

Analytic models based on closed queuing networks (CQNS) are widely used for performance prediction in practical systems. In using such models, there is always a prediction error, that is, a difference between the predicted performance and the actual outcome. This prediction error is due both to modeling errors and estimation errors, the latter being the difference between the estimated values of the CQN parameters and the actual outcomes. This paper considers the second class of errors; in particular, it studies the effect of small estimation errors and provides bounds on prediction errors based on bounds on estimation errors. Estimation errors may be divided into two types: (1) the difference between the estimated value and the average value of the outcome, and (2) the deviation of the actual value from its average. The analysis first studies the sum of both types of errors, then the second type alone. The results are illustrated with three examples.

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Cited By

Chowdhury APass GKraft DFrieder OHammer JQureshi SSeligman L(2003)Operational requirements for scalable search systemsProceedings of the twelfth international conference on Information and knowledge management10.1145/956863.956945(435-442)Online publication date: 3-Nov-2003
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/956863.956945
Lüthi JHaring G(1998)Mean value analysis for queueing network models with intervals as input parametersPerformance Evaluation10.1016/S0166-5316(97)00021-732:3(185-215)Online publication date: 1-Apr-1998
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1016/S0166-5316%2897%2900021-7
Cao XMa D(1996)Performance sensitivity formulae, algorithms and estimates for closed queueing networks with exponential serversPerformance Evaluation10.1016/0166-5316(95)00025-926:3(181-199)Online publication date: 1-Sep-1996
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1016/0166-5316%2895%2900025-9
Show More Cited By

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Error bounds for performance prediction in queuing networks

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Reviews

Reviewer: Thomas C. Richards

Analytic models based on Closed Queueing Networks (CQN) are widely used for performance prediction in many systems such as computer systems, communication networks, and automated manufacturing plants. These models are subject to error in the prediction, which may be due to errors in the assumptions upon which the model is based or errors in the estimation of the model's parameters. This paper only examines estimation errors and provides bounds on the model's performance prediction errors, based on given bounds on the parametric estimation errors. The paper presents the CQN system model assumptions and properties, its input parameters, and the formulas for performance measures. Error bounds, variance bounds, accuracy of the bounds, significance of the bounds, and proofs of the results are also presented.

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Published In

cover image ACM Transactions on Computer Systems

ACM Transactions on Computer Systems Volume 3, Issue 3

Aug. 1985

94 pages

ISSN:0734-2071

EISSN:1557-7333

DOI:10.1145/3959

Editor:
Anita K. Jones

Issue’s Table of Contents

Copyright © 1985 ACM.

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Association for Computing Machinery

New York, NY, United States

Publication History

Published: 01 August 1985

Published in TOCS Volume 3, Issue 3

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Cited By

Chowdhury APass GKraft DFrieder OHammer JQureshi SSeligman L(2003)Operational requirements for scalable search systemsProceedings of the twelfth international conference on Information and knowledge management10.1145/956863.956945(435-442)Online publication date: 3-Nov-2003
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/956863.956945
Lüthi JHaring G(1998)Mean value analysis for queueing network models with intervals as input parametersPerformance Evaluation10.1016/S0166-5316(97)00021-732:3(185-215)Online publication date: 1-Apr-1998
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1016/S0166-5316%2897%2900021-7
Cao XMa D(1996)Performance sensitivity formulae, algorithms and estimates for closed queueing networks with exponential serversPerformance Evaluation10.1016/0166-5316(95)00025-926:3(181-199)Online publication date: 1-Sep-1996
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1016/0166-5316%2895%2900025-9
Xi-Ren Cao Dye-Jyun Ma (1994)On-line estimation and algorithms for performance sensitivities of discrete event systemsProceedings of 1994 33rd IEEE Conference on Decision and Control10.1109/CDC.1994.411083(1996-2001)Online publication date: 1994
https://doi.org/10.1109/CDC.1994.411083
Calzarossa MSerazzi G(1994)Construction and use of multiclass workload modelsPerformance Evaluation10.1016/0166-5316(94)90046-919:4(341-352)Online publication date: 1-Apr-1994
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1016/0166-5316%2894%2990046-9
Tetzlaff U(1994)Capacity optimization of flexible manufacturing systems under budget constraintsInternational Journal of Flexible Manufacturing Systems10.1007/BF013248756:1(55-67)Online publication date: Jan-1994
https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01324875
Suri RSanders JKamath M(1993)Chapter 5 Performance evaluation of production networksLogistics of Production and Inventory10.1016/S0927-0507(05)80185-9(199-286)Online publication date: 1993
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0927-0507(05)80185-9
Tay Y(1992)An Approach to Analyzing the Behavior of Some Queueing NetworksOperations Research10.5555/3216566.321657940:3-supplement-2(S300-S311)Online publication date: 1-Jun-1992
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/3216566.3216579
Cao X(1992)A linear algebraic formulation of the performance sensitivities of queueing networksEuropean Journal of Operational Research10.1016/0377-2217(92)90322-Z56:3(394-406)Online publication date: Feb-1992
https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-2217(92)90322-Z
Cao XMa D(1992)New performance sensitivity formulae for a class of product-form queueing networksDiscrete Event Dynamic Systems10.1007/BF017968261:3(289-313)Online publication date: Jan-1992
https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01796826
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