A model of risk and mental state shifts during social interaction
Fig 1
Basic game and game data features.
A: Physical features of the multi round trust game. B: Recursive reasoning about a partner. At level 0 the blue player learns about the partner. At level 1 the blue players knows that the red player learns about them too (that is, that the red player is level 0). At level 2 the blue player knows that the red player knows they are learning about them (i.e. that the red player is level 1 and thinks of the blue player as level 0). This recurses up to higher levels. C) Averaged investments and repayments in the data set. Errorbars show standard errors of the mean. An asterisk denotes the largest difference (p = 0.05, two sided permutation t-test) corrected for multiple comparisons at the 10 steps. D) Average investment in real and in simulated exchanges based on best fit parameters. An asterisk denotes a significant difference (p < 0.05, two sided permutation t-test) in means between the original data and the generated exchanges. E) Average repayments in real and in simulated exchanges based on the actual parameters. F) Sample trajectory for an investor vs average of 200 generated exchanges with best fitting parameters, based on the earlier model (see [10]). Shaded area shows estimated standard deviations. G) Sample trajectory for a trustee vs average of 200 generated exchanges with best fitting parameters, based on the earlier model (see [10]). Shaded area shows estimated standard deviations.