Diurnal surface fuel moisture prediction model for Calabrian pine stands in Turkey

doi:10.3832/ifor2870-012

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Diurnal surface fuel moisture prediction model for Calabrian pine stands in Turkey

Ertugrul Bilgili⁽¹⁾, Kadir Alperen Coskuner⁽¹⁾, Yetkin Usta⁽¹⁾ , Bulent Saglam⁽²⁾, Omer Kucuk⁽³⁾, Tolga Berber⁽⁴⁾, Merih Goltas⁽⁵⁾

iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, Volume 12, Issue 3, Pages 262-271 (2019)
doi: https://doi.org/10.3832/ifor2870-012
Published: May 03, 2019 - Copyright © 2019 SISEF

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This study presents a dynamic model for the prediction of diurnal changes in the moisture content of dead surface fuels in normally stocked Calabrian pine stands under varying weather conditions. The model was developed based on several empirical relationships between moisture contents of dead surface fuels and weather variables, and calibrated using field data collected from three Calabrian stands from three different regions of Turkey (Mugla, southwest; Antalya, south; Trabzon, north-east). The model was tested and validated with independent measurements of fuel moisture from two sets of field observations made during dry and rainy periods. Model predictions showed a mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.19% for litter and 0.90% for duff at Mugla, and 3.62% for litter and 14.38% for duff at Antalya. When two rainy periods were excluded from the analysis at Antalya site, the MAE decreased from 14.38% to 4.29% and R² increased from 0.25 to 0.83 for duff fuels. Graphical inspection and statistical validation of the model indicated that the diurnal litter and duff moisture dynamics could be predicted reasonably. The model can easily be adapted for other similar fuel types in the Mediterranean region.

Keywords

Fuel Moisture Content, Modeling, Drying Rate, Vapor Pressure Deficit

Authors’ address

(1)

0000-0003-1006-4991
0000-0001-5249-1604
0000-0002-0504-6417
Karadeniz Technical University, Faculty of Forestry, 61080 Trabzon (Turkey)

(2)

Artvin Coruh University, Faculty of Forestry, 08000 Artvin (Turkey)

(3)

0000-0003-2639-8195
Kastamonu University, Faculty of Forestry, 37200 Kastamonu (Turkey)

(4)

Karadeniz Technical University, Faculty of Science, 61080 Trabzon (Turkey)

(5)

Istanbul University, Faculty of Forestry, 34100 Istanbul (Turkey)

Corresponding author

Yetkin Usta
yetkinusta@ktu.edu.tr

Citation

Bilgili E, Coskuner KA, Usta Y, Saglam B, Kucuk O, Berber T, Goltas M (2019). Diurnal surface fuel moisture prediction model for Calabrian pine stands in Turkey. iForest 12: 262-271. - doi: 10.3832/ifor2870-012

Academic Editor

Davide Ascoli

Paper history

Received: May 29, 2018
Accepted: Feb 27, 2019

First online: May 03, 2019
Publication Date: Jun 30, 2019
Publication Time: 2.17 months

Open Access

This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.

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