Disruption is difficult to predict as well as navigate but often prove to be a boon for the secto... more Disruption is difficult to predict as well as navigate but often prove to be a boon for the sector, society and economy. The Indian telecom sector has to face disruption twice in less than two decades and that too by the same entity. The disruptive entry of Reliance Jio in the telecom sector has completely changed the dynamics of the well-regulated Indian telecom sector. It has not only forced consolidation in the sector but has also changed the nature of industry forever as well as indirectly helping to digitalise the Indian economy. This article discusses the different aspects of the disruption caused by Reliance Jio and its impact on the Indian telecom sector.
The recommendations of the Internal Working Group (IWG) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) allows... more The recommendations of the Internal Working Group (IWG) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) allows corporate to promote banks in India. This will bring in some benefits such as increased lending capacity and development of financial services but a number of problems such as conflict of interest, intergroup lending, fund diversion, corporate governance, financial stability and contagion arising due to corporate default as well as the economic concentration which will lead to increased inequality.
The ability of electric vehicles to reduce pollution is completely dependent on the decarbonisati... more The ability of electric vehicles to reduce pollution is completely dependent on the decarbonisation of electricity production process but not on the penetration of the electric vehicles into market. If India is able to decarbonise her electricity producing units, then only any effort of promoting electric vehicles can be successful in reducing carbon footprint. But apart from all the benefits, it too has negative side. The increased use of electric vehicles would create a new problem of handling with a new type of garbage that is Li-batteries. And it would be a challenge for India as even today after decades India does not have any proper system to manage electronic garbage as well as Li-ion batteries.
There is almost a broad consensus that electric vehicles coupled with renewable energy are greene... more There is almost a broad consensus that electric vehicles coupled with renewable energy are greener and sustainable mode of transportation for India. However India needs to tread carefully. There is need to put infrastructures like battery charging stations and batteries management facilities in place to make electric vehicles viable option in India. But prior to this, adequate policy response is needed from the government to update its laws which could accommodate Li-ion and other types of batteries into its ambit. Moreover Indian Government has allocated budget for promotion of electric vehicles but that wouldn't be enough. To speed up this process, there is a need for the participation from the corporate sector. Corporate sector can participate either by investing in the business to earn profits or in form of corporate social responsibility to help build a sustainable world. Also India needs to be careful that the push to electric vehicles wouldn't result into increase in ...
Corporate Finance: Capital Structure & Payout Policies eJournal, 2018
Default by corporate is problem of concern for banking and financial services industry along with... more Default by corporate is problem of concern for banking and financial services industry along with economy. Timely prediction of default is imperative for the bankers and regulators to devise and take preventive actions. There has been large numbers of studies across the world and in India too few studies conducted for Indian data. An extensive review of literature reveals that the subject of default prediction has not explored much in India. In India along with rest of the world, the numbers of defaults have been increasing every year. This creates scope for further studies.<br><br>A comparative study has been conducted on the data of three countries, namely India, the US and the UK using four methods; MDA, logit, reduced form and structural models. The study for the Indian sample has developed 24 models for three methods; MDA, logit and reduced form model for two sample periods large sample period and small sample period on a sample of 2450 case over ten years from 1st ...
Monetary Economics: Financial System & Institutions eJournal, 2019
Banking system uses this practice of divergence in reporting bad loans and their provisioning wit... more Banking system uses this practice of divergence in reporting bad loans and their provisioning with the hope that those bad loan accounts would turn into standard assets over time. However with the help of this practice, the real financial positions of these institutions are withheld for some time from RBI as well as the market both. This glossy and superficial picture is presented to avoid knee jerk reaction from the market and RBI. Like all other publicly traded companies, banks too have the pressure of increasing or at least maintaining profitability so that value of their stocks can be maintained at least. So in this window dressing practice, stock market does have an invisible role to play.
The paper studies the default probabilities of the 47 Indian firms over period of 2007 to 2013. T... more The paper studies the default probabilities of the 47 Indian firms over period of 2007 to 2013. This study uses options based method to predict the probability of default of these firms over the assessment period. We has used Black, Scholes and Merton model in this paper. The study estimates the market value of assets, asset volatility, risk neutral default probability and real default probability of firms and finds out the factors that have impact on the default probabilities.
This study assesses the classification accuracies of two statistical methods namely, multiple dis... more This study assesses the classification accuracies of two statistical methods namely, multiple discriminant analysis and logistic regression approach in default prediction. It uses a small sample of 32 India firms listed on Bombay Stock Exchange for the sample period of six years over 2010-11 to 2015-16. Two models have been built using the two statistical methods. Results of the study clearly indicate that there are no significant differences in the classification accuracies because of change in statistical methods. Different statistical measures clearly suggest that the two developed models have comparative classification accuracies in default prediction. However, the specification and robustness of logit model is found to be on lower side than that of the discriminant model contrary to large numbers of studies. The weaker model specification of logistic model may be result of small sample size.
Purpose: The intervention by corporate is said to have huge impact on socio-economic environment.... more Purpose: The intervention by corporate is said to have huge impact on socio-economic environment. The study aims to find out spending patterns of CSR corpus by corporate on agriculture sector as well as possible solution for farm sector infrastructure bottlenecks in agriculture sector through CSR intervention.Approach: This study uses publicly available CSR expenditure data on agriculture by 20 Indian corporate.Findings: Study finds that the CSR spending in agriculture is far less in comparison to many sectors such as education, healthcare, art and culture etc. Also a few large firms were voluntarily spending a part of their earnings on CSR initiatives even before the provisions relating to CSR were introduced in Companies Act 2013. There is need to put a mechanism to avoid overlap of different schemes by the governments as well as CSR projects for the benefit to the larger section of society. The provision of mandatory CSR expenditure on agriculture sector may be helpful to bring f...
For some time, it was an open secret to all that Jet Airways is a debt ridden company and unable ... more For some time, it was an open secret to all that Jet Airways is a debt ridden company and unable to even service the debt both in short term as well as long term. Being a full-fledged airline, it has very high operational costs in comparison to many other airlines operating in India. Apart from this, at present there are no pilots or any crew members who could help to fly its planes back in the air because the firm has failed even to pay the salaries to its staff for long. On the other hand, the lenders have already declined to provide any relief by lending with the emergency fund of Rs 1,200 crores even after giving assurance for the same. Also there are thick rumours in the air that employees are planning to go to the court to recover their dues. These circumstances altogether make it even more difficult for Jet Airways to hit back in the air.
The adaptability of internet into daily lives of the people has made it an essential need not a w... more The adaptability of internet into daily lives of the people has made it an essential need not a want or luxury. So the dynamics as well as the importance of internet has got new values and wings for the society and nations as whole. Now it does not remain just mean of communication only. Rather it has numerous impacts on social and economic lives in the modern society, though with risks and dangers as well.
The Industrial revolution not only needed huge investments but also needed market and raw materia... more The Industrial revolution not only needed huge investments but also needed market and raw material. Indian market was capable of making available both the raw materials as well as possible customers because of the peril cause of high taxes on handicrafts. The imperialist government for the making raw material available to British producers forced cash crops like indigo, opium, cotton and jute on Indian farmers first in Bengal then across India.
The farm support plans announced by India and the United States have created a lot of noise, main... more The farm support plans announced by India and the United States have created a lot of noise, mainly among the developed nations with surplus agriculture produces. These are under the scrutiny by the World Trade Organization members in WTO’s quarterly agriculture committee meeting on June 25-26. Specifically the European Union and Australia has asked India to explain the Modi’s proposal to spend Rs 25 lakh crore on agriculture and rural development and doubling farmers’ incomes by 2022 as part of Rs 100 lakh crore, five-year infrastructure development plan. Even the US is out asking questions about India’s 5% export subsidy for non-Basmati rice as well as increasing purchase of wheat at higher minimum support prices by the Indian Government even when India has record wheat stockpile.
Since 2015, various lead indicators, including the business cycle and the financial cycle, have s... more Since 2015, various lead indicators, including the business cycle and the financial cycle, have started pointing towards a possible slowdown in Indian economy but those signs were too weak and the whole economic environment was full with optimism. Though, today the signs of slowdown are strong and more visible. Many indicators like consumption (demand), private investment, number of new projects and GDP growth rate (6.8% in 2018-19) are slowing down. Different institutions like Moody’s and economists are cutting India’s projected GDP growth rate. However this downturn is expected to be a short term phenomenon.
There has been a lot of discussion about the India’s stand regarding the WTO&#39;s Trade Faci... more There has been a lot of discussion about the India’s stand regarding the WTO&#39;s Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) for which developed countries have been lobbying since long. However India has made it very clear that she will not ratify the TFA until and unless there is a concrete proposal to find out a permanent solution to its public food stock-holding issue for food security under Right to Food Act 2013 for ensuring access to enough food to her 1.3 billion population. Before opening the discussion a look at the previous events is necessary.
Across the entire world we have been championing the cause of economic growth and development and... more Across the entire world we have been championing the cause of economic growth and development and have presented it as the only solution to the socio-economic misery of men and women of the world. To achieve it all the possible stones are being turned and obviously it has benefitted billions of populations across world and brought millions of people out from miserable poverty (OECD, 2008; Rodarte & Verbeek, 2015). Though, still billions of people have been left out from this growth (Ebunoluwa & Yusuf, 2018) and development bandwagon while lavishing all the possible luxury to a few million people in this world (Kwatra, 2019). But the cost to this has been so high and irreparable and no country in this world is exception to this. So is India.
The US has been not reinvesting its earnings back into its economy and people since very long. An... more The US has been not reinvesting its earnings back into its economy and people since very long. And at the same time have been over spending on domestic front (Leonhardt, 2011) along with wasting huge resources into some adventures in Asia and Africa and in some other military campaigns (Johnson & Sehgal, 2011). It is simple economics but the US (political and administrative classes) is not ready to understand it. Since long the US has been investing billions of dollars in so called strategic future interests and plans for 21th century and so. But it is miserably failing to plan for its present.
Desh Deshpande, On Entrepreneurship and Impact, Melbourne and New Delhi: Prolibris Publishing Ind... more Desh Deshpande, On Entrepreneurship and Impact, Melbourne and New Delhi: Prolibris Publishing India Pvt Ltd, 2016, 105 pp.
Disruption is difficult to predict as well as navigate but often prove to be a boon for the secto... more Disruption is difficult to predict as well as navigate but often prove to be a boon for the sector, society and economy. The Indian telecom sector has to face disruption twice in less than two decades and that too by the same entity. The disruptive entry of Reliance Jio in the telecom sector has completely changed the dynamics of the well-regulated Indian telecom sector. It has not only forced consolidation in the sector but has also changed the nature of industry forever as well as indirectly helping to digitalise the Indian economy. This article discusses the different aspects of the disruption caused by Reliance Jio and its impact on the Indian telecom sector.
The recommendations of the Internal Working Group (IWG) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) allows... more The recommendations of the Internal Working Group (IWG) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) allows corporate to promote banks in India. This will bring in some benefits such as increased lending capacity and development of financial services but a number of problems such as conflict of interest, intergroup lending, fund diversion, corporate governance, financial stability and contagion arising due to corporate default as well as the economic concentration which will lead to increased inequality.
The ability of electric vehicles to reduce pollution is completely dependent on the decarbonisati... more The ability of electric vehicles to reduce pollution is completely dependent on the decarbonisation of electricity production process but not on the penetration of the electric vehicles into market. If India is able to decarbonise her electricity producing units, then only any effort of promoting electric vehicles can be successful in reducing carbon footprint. But apart from all the benefits, it too has negative side. The increased use of electric vehicles would create a new problem of handling with a new type of garbage that is Li-batteries. And it would be a challenge for India as even today after decades India does not have any proper system to manage electronic garbage as well as Li-ion batteries.
There is almost a broad consensus that electric vehicles coupled with renewable energy are greene... more There is almost a broad consensus that electric vehicles coupled with renewable energy are greener and sustainable mode of transportation for India. However India needs to tread carefully. There is need to put infrastructures like battery charging stations and batteries management facilities in place to make electric vehicles viable option in India. But prior to this, adequate policy response is needed from the government to update its laws which could accommodate Li-ion and other types of batteries into its ambit. Moreover Indian Government has allocated budget for promotion of electric vehicles but that wouldn't be enough. To speed up this process, there is a need for the participation from the corporate sector. Corporate sector can participate either by investing in the business to earn profits or in form of corporate social responsibility to help build a sustainable world. Also India needs to be careful that the push to electric vehicles wouldn't result into increase in ...
Corporate Finance: Capital Structure & Payout Policies eJournal, 2018
Default by corporate is problem of concern for banking and financial services industry along with... more Default by corporate is problem of concern for banking and financial services industry along with economy. Timely prediction of default is imperative for the bankers and regulators to devise and take preventive actions. There has been large numbers of studies across the world and in India too few studies conducted for Indian data. An extensive review of literature reveals that the subject of default prediction has not explored much in India. In India along with rest of the world, the numbers of defaults have been increasing every year. This creates scope for further studies.<br><br>A comparative study has been conducted on the data of three countries, namely India, the US and the UK using four methods; MDA, logit, reduced form and structural models. The study for the Indian sample has developed 24 models for three methods; MDA, logit and reduced form model for two sample periods large sample period and small sample period on a sample of 2450 case over ten years from 1st ...
Monetary Economics: Financial System & Institutions eJournal, 2019
Banking system uses this practice of divergence in reporting bad loans and their provisioning wit... more Banking system uses this practice of divergence in reporting bad loans and their provisioning with the hope that those bad loan accounts would turn into standard assets over time. However with the help of this practice, the real financial positions of these institutions are withheld for some time from RBI as well as the market both. This glossy and superficial picture is presented to avoid knee jerk reaction from the market and RBI. Like all other publicly traded companies, banks too have the pressure of increasing or at least maintaining profitability so that value of their stocks can be maintained at least. So in this window dressing practice, stock market does have an invisible role to play.
The paper studies the default probabilities of the 47 Indian firms over period of 2007 to 2013. T... more The paper studies the default probabilities of the 47 Indian firms over period of 2007 to 2013. This study uses options based method to predict the probability of default of these firms over the assessment period. We has used Black, Scholes and Merton model in this paper. The study estimates the market value of assets, asset volatility, risk neutral default probability and real default probability of firms and finds out the factors that have impact on the default probabilities.
This study assesses the classification accuracies of two statistical methods namely, multiple dis... more This study assesses the classification accuracies of two statistical methods namely, multiple discriminant analysis and logistic regression approach in default prediction. It uses a small sample of 32 India firms listed on Bombay Stock Exchange for the sample period of six years over 2010-11 to 2015-16. Two models have been built using the two statistical methods. Results of the study clearly indicate that there are no significant differences in the classification accuracies because of change in statistical methods. Different statistical measures clearly suggest that the two developed models have comparative classification accuracies in default prediction. However, the specification and robustness of logit model is found to be on lower side than that of the discriminant model contrary to large numbers of studies. The weaker model specification of logistic model may be result of small sample size.
Purpose: The intervention by corporate is said to have huge impact on socio-economic environment.... more Purpose: The intervention by corporate is said to have huge impact on socio-economic environment. The study aims to find out spending patterns of CSR corpus by corporate on agriculture sector as well as possible solution for farm sector infrastructure bottlenecks in agriculture sector through CSR intervention.Approach: This study uses publicly available CSR expenditure data on agriculture by 20 Indian corporate.Findings: Study finds that the CSR spending in agriculture is far less in comparison to many sectors such as education, healthcare, art and culture etc. Also a few large firms were voluntarily spending a part of their earnings on CSR initiatives even before the provisions relating to CSR were introduced in Companies Act 2013. There is need to put a mechanism to avoid overlap of different schemes by the governments as well as CSR projects for the benefit to the larger section of society. The provision of mandatory CSR expenditure on agriculture sector may be helpful to bring f...
For some time, it was an open secret to all that Jet Airways is a debt ridden company and unable ... more For some time, it was an open secret to all that Jet Airways is a debt ridden company and unable to even service the debt both in short term as well as long term. Being a full-fledged airline, it has very high operational costs in comparison to many other airlines operating in India. Apart from this, at present there are no pilots or any crew members who could help to fly its planes back in the air because the firm has failed even to pay the salaries to its staff for long. On the other hand, the lenders have already declined to provide any relief by lending with the emergency fund of Rs 1,200 crores even after giving assurance for the same. Also there are thick rumours in the air that employees are planning to go to the court to recover their dues. These circumstances altogether make it even more difficult for Jet Airways to hit back in the air.
The adaptability of internet into daily lives of the people has made it an essential need not a w... more The adaptability of internet into daily lives of the people has made it an essential need not a want or luxury. So the dynamics as well as the importance of internet has got new values and wings for the society and nations as whole. Now it does not remain just mean of communication only. Rather it has numerous impacts on social and economic lives in the modern society, though with risks and dangers as well.
The Industrial revolution not only needed huge investments but also needed market and raw materia... more The Industrial revolution not only needed huge investments but also needed market and raw material. Indian market was capable of making available both the raw materials as well as possible customers because of the peril cause of high taxes on handicrafts. The imperialist government for the making raw material available to British producers forced cash crops like indigo, opium, cotton and jute on Indian farmers first in Bengal then across India.
The farm support plans announced by India and the United States have created a lot of noise, main... more The farm support plans announced by India and the United States have created a lot of noise, mainly among the developed nations with surplus agriculture produces. These are under the scrutiny by the World Trade Organization members in WTO’s quarterly agriculture committee meeting on June 25-26. Specifically the European Union and Australia has asked India to explain the Modi’s proposal to spend Rs 25 lakh crore on agriculture and rural development and doubling farmers’ incomes by 2022 as part of Rs 100 lakh crore, five-year infrastructure development plan. Even the US is out asking questions about India’s 5% export subsidy for non-Basmati rice as well as increasing purchase of wheat at higher minimum support prices by the Indian Government even when India has record wheat stockpile.
Since 2015, various lead indicators, including the business cycle and the financial cycle, have s... more Since 2015, various lead indicators, including the business cycle and the financial cycle, have started pointing towards a possible slowdown in Indian economy but those signs were too weak and the whole economic environment was full with optimism. Though, today the signs of slowdown are strong and more visible. Many indicators like consumption (demand), private investment, number of new projects and GDP growth rate (6.8% in 2018-19) are slowing down. Different institutions like Moody’s and economists are cutting India’s projected GDP growth rate. However this downturn is expected to be a short term phenomenon.
There has been a lot of discussion about the India’s stand regarding the WTO&#39;s Trade Faci... more There has been a lot of discussion about the India’s stand regarding the WTO&#39;s Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) for which developed countries have been lobbying since long. However India has made it very clear that she will not ratify the TFA until and unless there is a concrete proposal to find out a permanent solution to its public food stock-holding issue for food security under Right to Food Act 2013 for ensuring access to enough food to her 1.3 billion population. Before opening the discussion a look at the previous events is necessary.
Across the entire world we have been championing the cause of economic growth and development and... more Across the entire world we have been championing the cause of economic growth and development and have presented it as the only solution to the socio-economic misery of men and women of the world. To achieve it all the possible stones are being turned and obviously it has benefitted billions of populations across world and brought millions of people out from miserable poverty (OECD, 2008; Rodarte & Verbeek, 2015). Though, still billions of people have been left out from this growth (Ebunoluwa & Yusuf, 2018) and development bandwagon while lavishing all the possible luxury to a few million people in this world (Kwatra, 2019). But the cost to this has been so high and irreparable and no country in this world is exception to this. So is India.
The US has been not reinvesting its earnings back into its economy and people since very long. An... more The US has been not reinvesting its earnings back into its economy and people since very long. And at the same time have been over spending on domestic front (Leonhardt, 2011) along with wasting huge resources into some adventures in Asia and Africa and in some other military campaigns (Johnson & Sehgal, 2011). It is simple economics but the US (political and administrative classes) is not ready to understand it. Since long the US has been investing billions of dollars in so called strategic future interests and plans for 21th century and so. But it is miserably failing to plan for its present.
Desh Deshpande, On Entrepreneurship and Impact, Melbourne and New Delhi: Prolibris Publishing Ind... more Desh Deshpande, On Entrepreneurship and Impact, Melbourne and New Delhi: Prolibris Publishing India Pvt Ltd, 2016, 105 pp.
Default by corporate is problem of concern for banking and financial services industry along with... more Default by corporate is problem of concern for banking and financial services industry along with economy. Timely prediction of default is imperative for the bankers and regulators to devise and take preventive actions. There has been large numbers of studies across the world and in India too few studies conducted for Indian data. An extensive review of literature reveals that the subject of default prediction has not explored much in India. In India along with rest of the world, the numbers of defaults have been increasing every year. This creates scope for further studies. A comparative study has been conducted on the data of three countries, namely India, the US and the UK using four methods; MDA, logit, reduced form and structural models. The study for the Indian sample has developed 24 models for three methods; MDA, logit and reduced form model for two sample periods large sample period and small sample period on a sample of 2450 case over ten years from 1st April 2004 to 31st March 2014 and on two years data from 1st April 2014 to 31st March 2016, the developed models have been validated for the forward period as well as for the out of sample firms. Structural model has been tested on Indian data. The study for the American sample has developed three models for the three methods; MDA, logit and reduced form model. Structural model has been tested on American data. The study for the British sample has developed three models for the three methods; MDA, logit and reduced form model. Structural model has been tested on British data. So in this study total 30 models have been developed. The study uses multiple discriminant analysis and logistic regression analysis to calculate composite scores which are used to predict default. The structural model uses option mathematics to give probability of default with help of market value of assets, book value of debt and asset drift rate. Reduced form model uses Poisson regression to estimate intensity of default which is transformed into probability of default. The findings of the study for Indian sample suggest that logit model yields the highest classification accuracy of 97.7% and reduced form model yields the lowest classification accuracy of 82.3%. The models for small sample period are robust but classification accuracies for the models for large sample period are higher for different methods. The classification accuracies of 24 developed models for Indian sample has higher than many studies conducted in India and other countries. The findings of the study on American sample suggest that logit model yields the highest classification accuracy of 95% and structural model yields the lowest classification accuracy of 85.9% and classification accuracies of developed models higher than many studies. The findings of the study on British sample suggest that structural model yields the highest classification accuracy of 81.6% and reduced form model yields the lowest classification accuracy of 67.9%. The findings on variables suggest that all the three types of variables namely accounting, market and economic variables are significant for all the three samples from India, the US and the UK. In case of India, it is observed that all the variables which are significant for large sample period are significant for small sample period indicating the in long run firms tend to follow a certain pattern and default can be predicted with the help of a set of certain variables as far as default predict is concerned. However in short run market variables seem play minor role in default prediction. From the analysis of variables it is evident that total book value of debt with respect to total assets is the most important variable among all the variables with debt component. The biggest limitation of this study is that the models for small sample period are more robust while the models for large sample period have higher classification accuracy. The whole study is facing the problem of sample and selection biases.
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A comparative study has been conducted on the data of three countries, namely India, the US and the UK using four methods; MDA, logit, reduced form and structural models. The study for the Indian sample has developed 24 models for three methods; MDA, logit and reduced form model for two sample periods large sample period and small sample period on a sample of 2450 case over ten years from 1st April 2004 to 31st March 2014 and on two years data from 1st April 2014 to 31st March 2016, the developed models have been validated for the forward period as well as for the out of sample firms. Structural model has been tested on Indian data. The study for the American sample has developed three models for the three methods; MDA, logit and reduced form model. Structural model has been tested on American data. The study for the British sample has developed three models for the three methods; MDA, logit and reduced form model. Structural model has been tested on British data. So in this study total 30 models have been developed.
The study uses multiple discriminant analysis and logistic regression analysis to calculate composite scores which are used to predict default. The structural model uses option mathematics to give probability of default with help of market value of assets, book value of debt and asset drift rate. Reduced form model uses Poisson regression to estimate intensity of default which is transformed into probability of default.
The findings of the study for Indian sample suggest that logit model yields the highest classification accuracy of 97.7% and reduced form model yields the lowest classification accuracy of 82.3%. The models for small sample period are robust but classification accuracies for the models for large sample period are higher for different methods. The classification accuracies of 24 developed models for Indian sample has higher than many studies conducted in India and other countries. The findings of the study on American sample suggest that logit model yields the highest classification accuracy of 95% and structural model yields the lowest classification accuracy of 85.9% and classification accuracies of developed models higher than many studies. The findings of the study on British sample suggest that structural model yields the highest classification accuracy of 81.6% and reduced form model yields the lowest classification accuracy of 67.9%.
The findings on variables suggest that all the three types of variables namely accounting, market and economic variables are significant for all the three samples from India, the US and the UK. In case of India, it is observed that all the variables which are significant for large sample period are significant for small sample period indicating the in long run firms tend to follow a certain pattern and default can be predicted with the help of a set of certain variables as far as default predict is concerned. However in short run market variables seem play minor role in default prediction. From the analysis of variables it is evident that total book value of debt with respect to total assets is the most important variable among all the variables with debt component. The biggest limitation of this study is that the models for small sample period are more robust while the models for large sample period have higher classification accuracy. The whole study is facing the problem of sample and selection biases.