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2007 Ontario general election

The 2007 Ontario general election was held on October 10, 2007, to elect members (MPPs) of the 39th Legislative Assembly of the Province of Ontario, Canada. The Liberals under Premier Dalton McGuinty won the election with a majority government, winning 71 out of a possible 107 seats with 42.2% of the popular vote. The election saw the third-lowest voter turnout in Ontario provincial elections, setting a then record for the lowest voter turnout with 52.8% of people who were eligible voted. This broke the previous record of 54.7% in the 1923 election,[1] but would end up being surpassed in the 2011 and 2022 elections.

2007 Ontario general election
← 2003 October 10, 2007 2011 →
107 seats in the 39th Legislative Assembly of Ontario
54 seats were needed for a majority
Turnout52.8%
  First party Second party
 
Leader Dalton McGuinty John Tory
Party Liberal Progressive Conservative
Leader since December 1, 1996 September 18, 2004
Leader's seat Ottawa South Ran in Don Valley West (lost)[a]
Last election 72 seats, 46.47% 24 seats, 34.67%
Seats before 67 25
Seats won 71 26
Seat change Increase4 Increase1
Popular vote 1,867,273 1,398,806
Percentage 42.25% 31.62%
Swing Decrease4.22pp Decrease3.05pp
  Third party Fourth party
 
Leader Howard Hampton Frank de Jong
Party New Democratic Green
Leader since June 22, 1996 1993
Leader's seat Kenora—Rainy River Ran in Davenport (lost)
Last election 7 seats, 14.69% 0 seats, 2.81%
Seats before 10 0
Seats won 10 0
Seat change Steady Steady
Popular vote 741,465 354,897
Percentage 16.76% 8.02%
Swing Increase2.07pp Increase5.21pp
Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding. Riding names are listed at the bottom.
Premier before election

Dalton McGuinty
Liberal

Premier after election

Dalton McGuinty
Liberal

As a result of legislation passed by the Legislature in 2004, election dates are now fixed by formula so that an election is held approximately four years after the previous election, unless the government is defeated by a vote of "no confidence" in the Legislature. Previously, the governing party had considerable flexibility to determine the date of an election anywhere up to five years of being elected. The date of this election was originally presumed to be October 4, 2007;[2] however, the law fixes the date on the first Thursday of October or on any day within seven days thereof if required to accommodate a date of "religious or cultural significance". The date was set as October 10, 2007, to avoid a conflict with the Jewish holiday of Shemini Atzeret, which fell on October 4, 2007.[2]

In the same election, there was a provincial referendum on whether to change from first-past-the-post to mixed member proportional representation, as recommended by the Ontario Citizens' Assembly on Electoral Reform. This measure failed, with 37% of the participating electorate and 5 out of 107 ridings voting for the new system; a 60% supermajority was required province-wide, with at least 2/3 of the ridings also supporting it by a simple majority.[3]

Issues

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Although all four parties released a variety of detailed platform proposals, the campaign was dominated almost entirely by John Tory's promise to extend public funding to Ontario's faith-based schools.[4]

In Ontario at present, the Catholic school system is fully funded in the same manner as public schools. However, other religious schools, such as Jewish, Muslim or Evangelical Christian schools, are not funded by the province. This discrepancy has been cited as discriminatory by both the Supreme Court of Canada and the United Nations Human Rights Committee, although to date the province has taken no action to change its existing school funding policies, on the grounds that Catholic school funding in the province is mandated by the Constitution of Canada.

Tory's proposal to extend funding to religious schools was controversial, with polls confirming that a clear majority of Ontarians opposed the proposal. Even some of Tory's own caucus, most notably Bill Murdoch and Garfield Dunlop, openly criticized the proposal during the election campaign. After heavy opposition, Tory changed his position later in the campaign, promising a free vote on the issue.[5]

The Liberals and the NDP were both opposed to non-Catholic religious school funding, while the Green Party proposed eliminating the province's existing Catholic school funding in favour of a single public school board. Liberal opposition to non-Catholic religious school funding, especially private Muslim schools, appealed to Islamophobic sentiment in the province.[6][7]

There was a brief flurry of interest in health care issues when John Tory emphasized his support for an increasing role for the private sector in health care.

In the final week of the campaign, NDP leader Howard Hampton criticized the media for focusing almost entirely on religious schools and virtually ignoring other issues.

Redistribution

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Seat distribution and arrangement in the Ontario Legislative Assembly.

With the passing of Bill 214 and the Representation Act, 2005 in the year 2005, Ontario's electoral boundaries were no longer identical to the federal electoral boundaries.[8] The province was now divided into 11 northern electoral districts that were identical, except for a minor boundary adjustment, to the ones that existed on October 2, 2003, and 96 southern electoral districts that were identical to their federal counterparts as they existed on September 1, 2004.[8]

The 11 northern electoral districts were: Algoma—Manitoulin, Kenora—Rainy River, Nickel Belt, Nipissing, Parry Sound—Muskoka, Sault Ste. Marie, Sudbury, Thunder Bay—Atikokan, Thunder Bay—Superior North, Timiskaming—Cochrane, and Timmins—James Bay.[8]

As a result of the redistribution, none of the three major parties took fewer seats than it held at the dissolution of the previous legislature. The Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives each gained seats, while the New Democratic Party's seat total remained unchanged.

Results

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Summary of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario election results
Party Party leader Candidates Seats Popular vote
2003 Dissol. 2007 Change # % Change
Liberal Dalton McGuinty 107 72 67 71 +6.0% 1,869,273 42.25% -4.22%
Progressive Conservative John Tory 107 24 25 26 +4.0% 1,398,806 31.62% -3.05%
New Democratic Howard Hampton 107 7 10 10 - 741,465 16.77% +2.08%
Green Frank de Jong 107 - - - - 354,897 8.02% +5.20%
Family Coalition Giuseppe Gori 83 - - - - 35,702 0.81% +0.01%
Libertarian Sam Apelbaum 25 - - - - 9,249 0.21% +0.17%
Freedom Paul McKeever 15 - - - - 3,003 0.07% -0.13%
Communist Elizabeth Rowley 8 - - - - 1,603 0.04% -0.01%
Special Needs Danish Ahmed 2 - - - - 502 0.01% -
Confederation of Regions Eileen Butson 2 - - - - 446 0.01% +0.00%
Reform Brad Harness 2 - - - - 354 0.01% -
Republican Trueman Tuck 2 - - - - 272 0.01% -
  Independents and no affiliation 32 - - - - 8,326 0.19% -0.11%
  Vacant 1  
Total 103 103 107 8,380,551 4,423,898 100% -
Popular vote
Liberal
 
 42.25%
PC
 
 31.62%
New Democratic
 
 16.77%
Green
 
 8.02%
Others
 
 1.34%
Seats summary
Liberal
 
 66.36%
PC
 
 24.30%
New Democratic
 
 9.35%

Synopsis of results

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Main article: Results by riding of the Ontario general election, 2007
Results by riding - 2007 Ontario general election[a 1]
Riding Winning party Turnout
[a 2] 		Votes[a 3]
Party Votes Share Margin
# 		Margin
% 		Lib PC NDP Green Ind Other Total
 
Ajax—Pickering Lib 19,857 49.07% 5,959 14.73% 49.34% 19,857 13,898 3,275 3,067 - 368 40,465
Algoma—Manitoulin Lib 11,361 42.56% 1,498 5.61% 54.49% 11,361 3,744 9,863 1,374 - 354 26,696
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale Lib 20,445 41.16% 3,353 6.75% 58.12% 20,445 17,092 6,814 4,112 222 985 49,670
Barrie Lib 19,548 42.20% 1,381 2.98% 51.95% 19,548 18,167 3,700 4,385 179 341 46,320
Beaches—East York NDP 17,522 44.32% 7,307 18.48% 54.37% 10,215 6,166 17,522 4,785 - 851 39,539
Bramalea—Gore—Malton Lib 19,106 47.00% 7,172 17.64% 43.65% 19,106 11,934 5,016 4,120 - 471 40,647
Brampton—Springdale Lib 17,673 50.66% 6,965 19.97% 43.45% 17,673 10,708 3,800 2,292 - 410 34,883
Brampton West Lib 20,746 46.19% 5,626 12.53% 43.92% 20,746 15,120 4,901 3,471 185 488 44,911
Brant Lib 23,485 49.16% 9,698 20.30% 52.69% 23,485 13,787 6,536 3,272 289 403 47,772
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound PC 21,156 46.61% 6,117 13.48% 59.96% 6,774 21,156 1,721 15,039 - 695 45,385
Burlington PC 21,578 41.34% 1,854 3.55% 58.91% 19,724 21,578 5,728 4,779 - 391 52,200
Cambridge PC 17,942 41.70% 3,238 7.52% 49.69% 14,704 17,942 5,896 3,842 - 646 43,030
Carleton—Mississippi Mills PC 25,126 47.83% 8,350 15.89% 55.30% 16,776 25,126 4,002 5,517 - 1,112 52,533
Chatham-Kent—Essex Lib 18,782 51.98% 8,415 23.29% 48.81% 18,782 10,367 4,601 2,054 - 326 36,130
Davenport Lib 12,467 41.82% 1,587 5.32% 45.84% 12,467 2,805 10,880 3,047 114 500 29,813
Don Valley East Lib 19,667 55.63% 10,789 30.52% 51.30% 19,667 8,878 3,759 2,287 467 297 35,355
Don Valley West Lib 23,080 50.44% 4,924 10.76% 59.20% 23,080 18,156 2,138 2,202 - 183 45,759
Dufferin—Caledon PC 16,522 41.85% 3,884 9.84% 52.50% 12,638 16,522 3,893 6,430 - - 39,483
Durham PC 21,515 46.96% 6,785 14.81% 54.34% 14,730 21,515 5,521 4,053 - - 45,819
Eglinton—Lawrence Lib 17,402 43.23% 2,145 5.33% 55.62% 17,402 15,257 4,039 2,871 90 594 40,253
Elgin—Middlesex—London Lib 20,085 49.10% 7,625 18.64% 53.09% 20,085 12,460 4,643 3,363 - 353 40,904
Essex Lib 19,970 48.02% 9,570 23.01% 48.69% 19,970 10,400 8,638 2,220 - 358 41,586
Etobicoke Centre Lib 22,939 50.07% 7,272 15.87% 59.40% 22,939 15,667 3,847 3,357 - - 45,810
Etobicoke—Lakeshore Lib 20,218 45.99% 6,736 15.32% 53.62% 20,218 13,482 5,837 3,467 480 478 43,962
Etobicoke North Lib 15,147 54.85% 9,346 33.84% 45.19% 15,147 5,801 4,101 1,312 - 1,255 27,616
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Lib 24,345 60.51% 13,418 33.35% 52.80% 24,345 10,927 2,281 2,344 - 337 40,234
Guelph Lib 20,346 40.92% 8,166 16.42% 57.03% 20,346 12,180 6,880 9,750 - 571 49,727
Haldimand—Norfolk PC 26,135 60.92% 16,599 38.69% 56.25% 9,536 26,135 4,546 2,230 - 457 42,904
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock PC 24,273 49.99% 9,946 20.49% 59.22% 14,327 24,273 5,785 3,475 - 692 48,552
Halton PC 22,677 41.84% 176 0.32% 51.53% 22,501 22,677 4,160 4,376 - 487 54,201
Hamilton Centre NDP 17,176 44.72% 6,080 15.83% 48.63% 11,096 5,673 17,176 3,610 - 852 38,407
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek NDP 16,272 37.65% 1,210 2.80% 51.36% 15,062 9,310 16,272 2,122 - 452 43,218
Hamilton Mountain Lib 17,387 37.24% 1,734 3.71% 53.33% 17,387 10,982 15,653 2,172 - 493 46,687
Huron—Bruce Lib 20,469 45.95% 6,863 15.41% 59.80% 20,469 13,606 5,932 2,911 595 1,035 44,548
Kenora—Rainy River NDP 14,281 60.62% 8,529 36.20% 46.16% 5,752 2,757 14,281 769 - - 23,559
Kingston and the Islands Lib 23,277 47.23% 12,276 24.91% 53.96% 23,277 11,001 10,129 4,321 - 556 49,284
Kitchener Centre Lib 17,484 45.90% 7,767 20.39% 49.58% 17,484 9,717 6,707 3,162 425 599 38,094
Kitchener—Conestoga Lib 16,315 41.82% 1,865 4.78% 49.25% 16,315 14,450 4,545 2,805 - 901 39,016
Kitchener—Waterloo PC 20,748 40.84% 4,900 9.65% 53.63% 15,848 20,748 8,902 4,707 - 598 50,803
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Lib 18,228 43.27% 2,933 6.96% 55.18% 18,228 15,295 4,520 3,329 - 758 42,130
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington PC 18,213 40.58% 820 1.83% 52.08% 17,393 18,213 5,623 3,186 - 462 44,877
Leeds—Grenville PC 22,755 56.24% 11,153 27.56% 55.11% 11,602 22,755 2,821 2,907 - 377 40,462
London—Fanshawe Lib 13,742 38.68% 3,982 11.21% 48.21% 13,742 9,760 9,350 2,548 129 - 35,529
London North Centre Lib 21,669 47.17% 10,772 23.45% 50.00% 21,669 10,897 7,649 5,720 - - 45,935
London West Lib 25,967 52.42% 13,956 28.18% 57.83% 25,967 12,011 5,562 5,184 201 607 49,532
Markham—Unionville Lib 21,149 59.47% 11,575 32.55% 40.51% 21,149 9,574 2,597 1,910 - 335 35,565
Mississauga—Brampton South Lib 19,738 53.78% 10,405 28.35% 42.46% 19,738 9,333 3,785 3,846 - 0 36,702
Mississauga East—Cooksville Lib 22,249 58.93% 13,534 35.85% 47.48% 22,249 8,715 3,192 2,361 - 1,235 37,752
Mississauga—Erindale Lib 21,551 47.85% 6,638 14.74% 47.08% 21,551 14,913 5,056 3,521 - - 45,041
Mississauga South Lib 19,195 46.68% 5,008 12.18% 54.08% 19,195 14,187 3,745 3,629 - 365 41,121
Mississauga—Streetsville Lib 20,264 52.55% 9,109 23.62% 45.63% 20,264 11,155 3,944 2,925 - 274 38,562
Nepean—Carleton PC 27,070 50.28% 9,339 17.35% 54.61% 17,731 27,070 4,000 4,500 - 533 53,834
Newmarket—Aurora PC 19,460 42.72% 1,355 2.97% 55.21% 18,105 19,460 3,290 4,182 - 518 45,555
Niagara Falls Lib 22,210 47.53% 7,670 16.41% 51.08% 22,210 14,540 4,605 5,373 - - 46,728
Niagara West—Glanbrook PC 24,311 51.06% 10,021 21.05% 58.57% 14,290 24,311 5,809 3,206 - - 47,616
Nickel Belt NDP 15,126 46.59% 2,762 8.51% 53.56% 12,364 3,263 15,126 1,374 - 341 32,468
Nipissing Lib 13,781 42.11% 458 1.40% 56.79% 13,781 13,323 4,136 1,248 - 238 32,726
Northumberland—Quinte West Lib 22,287 45.37% 6,957 14.16% 54.92% 22,287 15,330 6,492 5,012 - - 49,121
Oak Ridges—Markham Lib 28,564 48.22% 7,197 12.15% 47.77% 28,564 21,367 4,698 3,815 342 455 59,241
Oakville Lib 23,761 49.81% 7,102 14.89% 58.26% 23,761 16,659 3,091 3,916 - 279 47,706
Oshawa PC 15,977 39.02% 2,495 6.09% 48.94% 8,762 15,977 13,482 2,474 - 253 40,948
Ottawa Centre Lib 18,255 34.91% 2,094 4.00% 58.25% 18,255 10,416 16,161 6,458 283 720 52,293
Ottawa—Orléans Lib 25,649 52.86% 8,954 18.45% 57.86% 25,649 16,695 3,088 2,214 - 875 48,521
Ottawa South Lib 24,015 50.13% 9,809 20.48% 56.60% 24,015 14,206 4,467 3,902 - 1,311 47,901
Ottawa—Vanier Lib 20,954 50.96% 11,785 28.66% 51.49% 20,954 9,169 6,049 4,293 255 396 41,116
Ottawa West—Nepean Lib 23,842 50.64% 8,871 18.84% 57.51% 23,842 14,971 4,564 2,903 207 592 47,079
Oxford PC 18,445 47.27% 6,990 17.91% 53.72% 11,455 18,445 4,421 3,441 659 601 39,022
Parkdale—High Park NDP 18,194 44.71% 6,294 15.47% 57.43% 11,900 6,024 18,194 3,938 - 638 40,694
Parry Sound—Muskoka PC 17,348 47.22% 7,529 20.49% 56.76% 9,819 17,348 5,015 4,557 - - 36,739
Perth—Wellington Lib 18,096 46.65% 5,758 14.84% 54.62% 18,096 12,338 3,912 3,051 217 1,175 38,789
Peterborough Lib 24,466 47.72% 11,290 22.02% 57.47% 24,466 13,176 8,523 4,473 - 634 51,272
Pickering—Scarborough East Lib 19,762 48.63% 6,878 16.92% 54.01% 19,762 12,884 4,563 2,572 275 585 40,641
Prince Edward—Hastings Lib 20,963 46.36% 6,123 13.54% 54.16% 20,963 14,840 6,287 2,663 - 463 45,216
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke PC 24,975 62.34% 15,070 37.62% 57.55% 9,905 24,975 3,038 1,777 - 368 40,063
Richmond Hill Lib 19,456 47.83% 5,329 13.10% 47.23% 19,456 14,127 3,565 3,210 - 318 40,676
St. Catharines Lib 21,029 47.23% 8,165 18.34% 53.83% 21,029 12,864 7,069 3,152 - 406 44,520
St. Paul's Lib 21,280 47.43% 9,370 20.88% 55.99% 21,280 11,910 7,061 3,744 328 545 44,868
Sarnia—Lambton PC 16,145 38.16% 3,702 8.75% 55.20% 12,443 16,145 11,349 2,376 - - 42,313
Sault Ste. Marie Lib 19,316 60.13% 10,841 33.75% 55.56% 19,316 2,349 8,475 1,377 - 605 32,122
Scarborough—Agincourt Lib 19,541 58.08% 11,010 32.72% 46.01% 19,541 8,531 3,531 1,511 - 532 33,646
Scarborough Centre Lib 17,775 53.66% 9,455 28.55% 48.06% 17,775 8,320 4,401 1,827 - 800 33,123
Scarborough—Guildwood Lib 14,430 42.52% 4,927 14.52% 51.28% 14,430 9,503 7,441 1,811 - 751 33,936
Scarborough—Rouge River Lib 22,307 65.06% 17,347 50.59% 41.82% 22,307 4,960 4,691 1,276 - 1,055 34,289
Scarborough Southwest Lib 15,114 46.15% 6,755 20.63% 49.70% 15,114 8,359 5,930 2,649 - 695 32,747
Simcoe—Grey PC 24,270 50.65% 11,823 24.67% 54.86% 12,447 24,270 4,417 5,428 273 1,085 47,920
Simcoe North PC 22,986 49.82% 8,892 19.27% 54.06% 14,094 22,986 4,240 4,709 - 112 46,141
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry Lib 18,660 48.86% 3,866 10.12% 51.81% 18,660 14,794 2,813 1,680 - 247 38,194
Sudbury Lib 19,307 58.77% 10,393 31.64% 51.11% 19,307 2,605 8,914 1,608 124 293 32,851
Thornhill PC 22,244 45.92% 1,725 3.56% 52.17% 20,519 22,244 2,657 2,507 158 356 48,441
Thunder Bay—Atikokan Lib 10,928 37.69% 50 0.17% 52.36% 10,928 5,918 10,878 1,270 - - 28,994
Thunder Bay—Superior North Lib 13,373 46.78% 2,435 8.52% 53.91% 13,373 2,688 10,938 1,586 - - 28,585
Timiskaming—Cochrane Lib 11,588 42.90% 634 2.35% 54.80% 11,588 3,659 10,954 811 - - 27,012
Timmins—James Bay NDP 13,176 51.60% 3,447 13.50% 53.76% 9,729 2,191 13,176 437 - - 25,533
Toronto Centre Lib 21,522 47.85% 12,438 27.65% 49.90% 21,522 9,084 8,464 4,412 358 1,141 44,981
Toronto—Danforth NDP 17,975 45.85% 6,527 16.65% 53.18% 11,448 4,423 17,975 4,372 - 986 39,204
Trinity—Spadina NDP 18,508 41.15% 4,328 9.62% 49.63% 14,180 6,235 18,508 5,156 504 390 44,973
Vaughan Lib 28,964 61.90% 20,205 43.18% 46.31% 28,964 8,759 5,470 2,975 623 - 46,791
Welland NDP 24,910 53.94% 14,330 31.03% 55.29% 10,580 8,722 24,910 1,973 - - 46,185
Wellington—Halton Hills PC 21,533 49.16% 8,221 18.77% 57.49% 13,312 21,533 3,914 4,489 - 555 43,803
Whitby—Oshawa PC 22,694 44.00% 4,134 8.02% 53.54% 18,560 22,694 5,734 3,745 - 839 51,572
Willowdale Lib 21,166 47.73% 5,608 12.65% 49.51% 21,166 15,558 3,699 2,960 119 847 44,349
Windsor—Tecumseh Lib 17,894 49.34% 9,058 24.98% 44.04% 17,894 6,106 8,836 2,696 - 735 36,267
Windsor West Lib 16,821 50.19% 8,217 24.52% 41.02% 16,821 5,652 8,604 1,974 - 463 33,514
York Centre Lib 16,646 48.73% 5,618 16.45% 49.07% 16,646 11,028 3,713 2,207 - 568 34,162
York—Simcoe PC 19,173 46.23% 6,388 15.40% 49.73% 12,785 19,173 4,205 4,664 - 645 41,472
York South—Weston Lib 13,846 42.94% 452 1.40% 46.34% 13,846 3,173 13,394 1,226 - 603 32,242
York West Lib 13,246 54.74% 6,482 26.79% 44.44% 13,246 2,484 6,764 1,199 225 282 24,200
  = new riding
  = merged riding
  = open seat
  = turnout is above provincial average
  = incumbent re-elected
  = incumbent changed allegiance
  = other incumbents renominated
  1. ^ "2007 Ontario General Election". elections.on.ca. Elections Ontario. Retrieved June 21, 2023.
  2. ^ including spoilt ballots
  3. ^ minor political parties receiving less than 1% of the popular vote are aggregated under "Other"; independent candidates are aggregated separately

Maps

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  •  
    Support for Liberal Party candidates by riding
  •  
    Support for Progressive Conservative Party candidates by riding
  •  
    Support for New Democratic Party candidates by riding
  •  
    Support for Green Party candidates by riding

Principal races

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Party candidates in 2nd place
Party in 1st place Party in 2nd place Total
Lib PC NDP Grn
Liberal – 58 13 71
Progressive Conservative 24 – 1 1 26
New Democratic 10 – 10
Total 34 58 14 1 107
Principal races, according to 1st and 2nd-place results
Parties Seats
█ Liberal █ Progressive Conservative 82
█ Liberal █ New Democratic 23
█ Progressive Conservative █ New Democratic 1
█ Progressive Conservative █ Green 1
Total 107
Candidates ranked 1st to 5th place, by party
Parties 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Total
█ Liberal 71 34 2 107
█ Progressive Conservative 26 58 22 1 107
█ New Democratic 10 14 65 18 107
█ Green 1 18 88 107
█ Family Coalition 63 63
█ Libertarian 16 16
█ Independent 8 8
█ Freedom 2 2
█ Communist 1
Resulting composition of the 40th Legislative Assembly of Ontario
Source Party
Lib PC NDP Total
Incumbents returned 60 22 8 90
Open seats held 3 1 1 5
Ouster of incumbent changing allegiance 1 1
New seats gained 5 1 6
Incumbents defeated 2 2 4
Open seats gained 1 1
Total 71 26 10 107

Incumbent MPPs who did not run for re-election

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Electoral district Incumbent at dissolution Subsequent nominee New MPP
Hamilton Mountain   Marie Bountrogianni Sophia Aggelonitis   Sophia Aggelonitis
Scarborough East   Mary Anne Chambers riding dissolved
Hamilton West   Judy Marsales riding dissolved
Nickel Belt   Shelley Martel France Gélinas   France Gélinas
Stoney Creek   Jennifer Mossop Riding dissolved
Prince Edward—Hastings   Ernie Parsons Leona Dombrowsky   Leona Dombrowsky
Ottawa Centre   Richard Patten Yasir Naqvi   Yasir Naqvi

Opinion polls

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Since the 2003 general election, several polls were conducted to determine the ongoing preference of voters. They showed a decline in Liberal support following the 2004 Ontario budget. Overall, support for the governing Liberals declined slightly since the 2003 election, the NDP gained some ground since the 2003 election, and the PCs' poll numbers did not change significantly since 2003. Support for the Green Party increased significantly, a shift which paralleled the increase in support for the party's federal counterpart. During the pre-election period, the Ontario Greens did not appear as an option in some of the polls.

Polls indicate results for decided voters. More information can be found in the footnotes to each poll, including undecided results, if provided by the pollster. A dash indicates the absence of a prompt for that party.

Polling firm Date released Date poll conducted Liberal Progressive Conservative New Democrats Green
Harris-Decima October 9, 2007[9] October 6 – 7, 2007 42 31 17 10
SES Research October 9, 2007[10] October 6 – 7, 2007 43 31 18 9
Environics October 9, 2007[11] September 28 – October 2, 2007 46 31 20 3
Strategic Counsel October 8, 2007[12] October 6 – 7, 2007 42 27 19 11
Ipsos-Reid October 6, 2007[13] October 2 – 4, 2007 43 32 18 6
Angus Reid Strategies October 5, 2007[14] October 4 – 5, 2007 40 34 19 7
Decima Research October 2, 2007[15] September 27 – October 1, 2007 43 32 14 10
SES Research October 2, 2007[16] September 28 – 30, 2007 44 34 15 7
Ipsos-Reid September 29, 2007[17] September 25 – 27, 2007 43 33 17 6
Environics September 28, 2007[18] September 21 – 25, 2007 39 34 20 7
Decima Research September 26, 2007[19] September 24 – 25, 2007 41 32 16 10
Angus Reid Strategies September 25, 2007[20] September 24 – 25, 2007 40 35 16 8
SES Research September 25, 2007[21] September 21 – 23, 2007 41 33 18 8
Ipsos-Reid September 20, 2007[22] September 11 – 18, 2007 40 37 16 6
Decima Research September 19, 2007[23] September 13 – 17, 2007 41 32 14 12
Strategic Counsel September 18, 2007[24] September 13 – 16, 2007 40 34 16 10
Ipsos-Reid September 15, 2007[25] September 4 – 13, 2007 40 37 16 6
Environics September 13, 2007[26] September 6 – 9, 2007 39 35 17 -
Angus Reid Strategies September 13, 2007[27] September 7 – 8, 2007 39 37 13 10
Decima Research September 12, 2007[28] September 5 – 8, 2007 41 33 13 11
Ipsos-Reid September 10, 2007[29] August 30 – September 8, 2007 41 36 17 6
SES Research August 30, 2007[30] August 24 – 26, 2007 40 34 19 8
Ipsos-Reid August 28, 2007[31] August 14 – 23, 2007 42 35 16 6
Ipsos-Reid August 21, 2007[32] August 7 – 16, 2007 40 37 17 6
The Strategic Counsel August 20, 2007[33] August 9 – 14, 2007 40 35 18 8
Ipsos-Reid July 3, 2007[34] June 19 – 28, 2007 39 36 17 7
Environics July 2, 2007[35] June 5 – 30, 2007 40 39 20 -
Pollara June 16, 2007[36] June 7–10, 2007 37 37 19 -
SES Research June 3, 2007[37] May 11–15, 2007 35 35 19 11
Environics May 18, 2007[38] March 13–April 3, 2007 33 38 26
Ipsos-Reid February 24, 2007[39] - 38 33 17 9
Environics January 5, 2007[40] December 8–30, 2006 39 37 21 -
SES Research December 17, 2006[41] November 25–27, 2006 42 35 16 7
Environics October 26, 2006[42] September 18 – October 12, 2006 42 33 23 -
EKOS October 18, 2006[43] October 10–12, 2006 42.4 36.2 19.6
SES Research October 7, 2006[44] September 30 – October 3, 2006 35 29 18 7
Environics September 9, 2006[45] June 2–24, 2006 35 36 27 -
Vector Research May 14, 2006 - 39 38 18 5
Environics April 13, 2006 - 34 39 24 -
SES Research March 23, 2006 - 41 34 20 5
Léger Marketing March 22, 2006 - 34 34 20 -
SES Research February 17, 2006 - 41 37 18 4
Vector Research January 21, 2006 - 36 35 23 6
Environics October 16, 2005 - 42 35 21 -
Vector Research September 19, 2005 - 33 41 20 6
SES Research June 14, 2005 - 41 35 21 4
Léger Marketing June 8, 2005 - 42 34 17 -
Léger Marketing April 29, 2005 - 36 37 19 -
Vector Research April 13, 2005 - 35 41 18 5
Environics April 11, 2005 - 35 41 21 -
Léger Marketing March 17, 2005 - 44 33 19 -
Vector Research December 16, 2004 - 39 32 24 5
Environics December 2004 - 37 39 23 -
Environics December 11, 2004 - 35 40 23 -
Léger Marketing September 2004 - 37 35 19 -
Vector Research August 22, 2004 - 37 32 23 9
Environics August 9, 2004 - 35 37 23 4
Ipsos-Reid June 14, 2004 - 32 39 23 6
SES Research June 5, 2004 - 34 41 20 -
Decima Research May 27, 2004 - 32 29 21 -
Environics May 6, 2004 - 45 33 20 1
Ipsos-Reid April 19, 2004 - 45 30 19 5
SES Research January 23, 2004 - 49 29 10 -
Environics January 21, 2004 - 50 30 16 3
Ipsos-Reid December 14, 2003 - 51 27 16 6
Ipsos-Reid November 8, 2003 - 56 27 12 5
Environics October 30, 2003 - 49 29 18 2
Last election (October 2, 2003) - 46.4 34.6 14.7 2.8

Riding specific polls

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Riding Polling firm Date released Date poll conducted Liberal Progressive Conservative New Democrats Green
Don Valley West COMPAS October 1, 2007[46] September 25 – 29, 2007 52 37 5 6
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Oraclepoll Research October 4, 2007[47] October 2 – 3, 2007 21 37 13 27
Nickel Belt Oraclepoll Research October 4, 2007[48] October 2 – 3, 2007 41 7 49 3

Timeline

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Wikinews has related news:
 
Election signs for the major parties plus a sign supporting the MMP side in the referendum in the constituency of Ottawa South. Ontario premier Dalton McGuinty is the Liberal candidate there.
  • September 18, 2006 - Joe Cordiano, MPP for York South—Weston, resigns from cabinet and legislature to spend more time with family.[53]
  • September 25, 2006 - Tony Wong, MPP for Markham, resigns from the legislature to run for York Region council in Markham, Ontario.[54]
  • September 28, 2006 - Cam Jackson, MPP for Burlington, resigns from the Legislature to run for mayor of Burlington.[55]
  • January 10, 2007 - By-elections called in the ridings of: Burlington; Markham; and York South—Weston to be held on February 8, 2007.
  • February 7, 2007 - The provincial government announces election date will be October 10, 2007 to avoid conflict with Shemini Atzeret on October 4.[2]
  • February 8, 2007 - In three by-elections, Paul Ferreira[56] of the NDP wins York South–Weston from the Liberals while Michael Chan[57] of the Liberals and Joyce Savoline[58] of the PCs hold Markham and Burlington, respectively.
  • March 29, 2007 - MPP Tim Peterson leaves the Liberal caucus and intends to run in this election as a Progressive Conservative.[59]
  • April 25, 2007 - Democratic Renewal Minister Marie Bountrogianni introduces Bill 218, a bill to have longer voting hours – 9 a.m. to 9 p.m. – that identification be presented, advanced polls increased to 13 days from 6 days, and amendments regarding the referendum on election formulas for electing MPPS. The proposed legislation will also deal with suggestions for online voting and with complaints that the permanent voters' list is unreliable because it does not keep up with moves and deaths.[60]
  • May 18, 2007 - New Democratic Party MPP Shelley Martel announced she will not seek re-election in her Nickel Belt riding. She is leaving politics for family reasons, and to pursue other career opportunities.[61]
  • May 18, 2007 - A poll released by Environics showed the governing Liberals in second place for the first time since March 2006. According to the poll, the Progressive Conservatives lead with 39% followed by the Liberals with 33%, the NDP with 26% and the Greens with 2%. The poll was conducted between March 13 to April 3, 2007.[38]
  • June 3, 2007 - A poll released by SES Research showed that the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives are in a dead-heat, with 29.8% of voters supporting each party. The NDP had 16% and the Green Party had 9%. 15% were undecided.[37]
  • June 4, 2007 Today, Bill 218 is given third reading and royal assent. The bill amends the Elections Act with the following changes: making electors present proper identification; methods of updating the permanent register of electors and creating an electronic system to allow electors to change their personal information online; alternative forms of voting and electronic vote counting can now take place; scrutineers from outside an electoral district, now have the same privileges as a resident scrutineer; Ballots will now show party affiliation and any nickname or familiar name of that the candidate requests; the Chief Electoral Officer is allowed to advertise information regarding the October 2007 Referendum on electoral reform.[62]
  • June 5, 2007 - Liberal Premier Dalton McGuinty prorogues the Legislature, stating that the passing of 14 bills during the session meant that the government's agenda had been fulfilled.[63] The adjournment was three weeks earlier than expected and several private members' bills failed to receive third reading, including a bill to make it mandatory to fill out organ transplant cards.[64] The legislature will not sit again until sometime after the October 10th election.[63]
  • July 11, 2007 - Citing health concerns Mary Anne Chambers, the Children and Youth Services Minister and MPP for Scarborough East, will not be seeking re-election in the October 10 Ontario vote. She would have run in the Scarborough—Guildwood electoral district.[65]
  • July 26, 2007 - Ontario Minister of Citizenship and Immigration Mike Colle resigned after an auditor general's report severely criticizes how $32 million in year-end grants to ethnic groups was administered.[66]
  • September 10, 2007 - Official election call. Writ issued as per omnibus Budget Act, Bill 187, that includes the amendment to the Election Act to set writ issuance date. Premier McGuinty formally asked the Lt. Governor to dissolve the legislature. The campaign will be 29 days long, one day longer than the minimum.[67]
 
Lawn signs for local candidates in Hamilton Mountain
  • September 18, 2007- Nomination papers due. A candidate or their designate must submit their nomination papers and deposit in person at the returning office by 2 p.m.[68]
  • September 20, 2007- Televised leadership debate between McGuinty, Tory and Hampton.
  • September 22 – October 4, 2007 - Advance polling stations open for early voting from 9:00 a.m. until 9:00 p.m.[62]
  • October 10, 2007 - Ontario general election from 9:00 a.m. until 9:00 p.m. EDT or in the most western part of the province 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. CDT as per Provision 20, Section 40(1) and 40(2) of the Election Act.[62]

Election results

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At 9:23 pm EDT, Citytv projected a Liberal majority government. CTV News made the same call at 9:30 pm EDT, followed by CBC News at 9:37 pm EDT, and Canadian Press at 9:52 pm EDT.

Also at 10:30 pm EDT, CBC and CTV reported that Progressive Conservative leader John Tory had called Liberal Leader Dalton McGuinty to concede the election. At 10:39 pm EDT, Tory was declared defeated by Canadian Press in the riding of Don Valley West.

At 10:43 pm EDT, Liberal leader Dalton McGuinty took the stage to give his speech to the public, breaking tradition of the defeated party leaders going first.

Each party lost at least one incumbent MPP — Liberals Mario Racco and Caroline Di Cocco, PCs Joe Tascona, Tim Peterson and John Tory and NDP Paul Ferreira were all defeated. However, each party's losses were offset by gains in other seats. The actual changes in party standings were accounted for entirely by the four new seats resulting from redistribution and the defeat of Peterson. Overall, however, most incumbent MPPs were returned in their ridings.

McGuinty became the first Liberal leader in Ontario to win two successive majorities in the legislature since Mitchell Hepburn in the 1937 election.

Breakdown by region

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Northern Ontario

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Liberal Progressive Conservative New Democrats Green
Seats 7 1 3 0

All eleven ridings in Northern Ontario were retained by their incumbent parties. The popular vote, however, shifted dramatically, with several Liberal incumbents holding on only very narrowly against NDP challengers. Most notably, Bill Mauro retained Thunder Bay—Atikokan by a margin of just 36 votes against John Rafferty, whom Mauro had defeated in 2003 by a margin of over 11,000 — Rafferty, in fact, spent much of the night leading Mauro. A judicial recount on October 31 increased Mauro's margin of victory to 50 votes. David Ramsay, similarly, trailed New Democrat John Vanthof in Timiskaming—Cochrane for much of the night, pulling ahead to a winning margin of 634 votes only in the final few polls to report. This was the narrowest margin of victory in Ramsay's 22-year career. Michael Gravelle also retained Thunder Bay—Superior North by an uncharacteristically narrow margin over Jim Foulds.

As well, Monique Smith retained Nipissing by just 377 votes over Progressive Conservative candidate Bill Vrebosch — in 2003, she had defeated Progressive Conservative incumbent Al McDonald by a wider margin of over 3,000 votes.

In keeping with this trend, New Democrat incumbents Howard Hampton and Gilles Bisson widened their margins of victory over Liberal challengers compared to 2003, and France Gélinas maintained the same margin that her predecessor, Shelley Martel, had attained in the previous election.

Notably, the rise in popular support for the New Democrats in Northern Ontario carried over into the 2008 federal election, in which the NDP won nearly every seat in the region for the first time in its history.

Eastern Ontario

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Liberal Progressive Conservative New Democrats Green
Seats 9 5 0 0

In Eastern Ontario, the new riding of Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington was carried by PC candidate Randy Hillier, while all 13 existing ridings were carried by their incumbent parties. With the exception of Yasir Naqvi, who carried Ottawa Centre by a much smaller margin over the NDP than Richard Patten had attained in 2003, Liberals in Ottawa improved their winning margins, although outside of Ottawa the popular vote trend remained relatively stable.

Central Ontario

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Liberal Progressive Conservative New Democrats Green
Seats 3 8 0 0

The most conservative-friendly area of the province, the PC vote largely held up, with the only Liberal gain being Aileen Carroll winning Barrie, the seat she used to represent federally. This was countered by a PC nominal gain in Newmarket—Aurora. The area also delivered the strongest support in the province for the Green Party, with Shane Jolley finishing a very strong second in Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound with 33.1% of the vote, the best finish ever received by any Green candidate in Canada to that point. The Greens also knocked the NDP into fourth place in a majority of area ridings.

Midwestern Ontario

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Liberal Progressive Conservative New Democrats Green
Seats 6 5 0 0

A politically mixed region, Midwestern Ontario had every incumbent party re-elected, as well as some anomalous results; in an election where the PCs were largely held to rural areas, and the Liberals consolidated an urban/suburban base, Elizabeth Witmer held onto the riding of Kitchener—Waterloo for the PCs, while the Liberals won in rural ridings in which they were the incumbent party, such as Huron—Bruce and Perth—Wellington. Further away from the provincewide result, on an election night which demonstrated Liberal strength province wide, Haldimand—Norfolk—Brant delivered the most crushing defeat for a Liberal candidate in the province, with the victorious PC incumbent Toby Barrett coming out 16,571 votes and 38.6% ahead of the Liberal.

Brampton, Mississauga & Oakville

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Liberal Progressive Conservative New Democrats Green
Seats 9 0 0 0

Although the suburban Western GTA had traditionally been a good area for the PCs, winning many seats in the area as recently as the Harris days, where it formed part of the 905-area backbone of the PC government, the Liberals won every seat in the area handily, with the victorious Liberal candidates averaging at around 50%. Even Mississauga South, which prior to the 2003 election had not voted Liberal provincially since the riding's creation, and had been expected to be a very tight race, proved a surprisingly easy victory for Charles Sousa, who gained the seat back for the Liberals from Tim Peterson, who had crossed the floor. The NDP continued to be a non-factor in the area, while the Greens growth in popular vote across the province was reflected, with the Greens even beating the NDP into fourth place in Oakville, which ironically had been the only riding in the province the Greens had not run in the previous election.

Southern Durham and York

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Liberal Progressive Conservative New Democrats Green
Seats 6 3 0 0

The Liberals continued to dominate York Region, with each incumbent being re-elected by a comfortable margin except in Thornhill where Mario Racco lost to PC candidate Peter Shurman. The newly created riding of Ajax—Pickering, projected to be a close race, elected Liberal Joe Dickson by over 6,000 votes despite having no party nominate incumbents. In southern Durham Region, Liberal Wayne Arthurs was re-elected to the newly distributed Pickering—Scarborough East, while Progressive Conservative Christine Elliott was re-elected to Whitby—Oshawa. Despite high expectations for Sid Ryan's fourth run as an NDP candidate in Oshawa, PC incumbent Jerry Ouellette was again re-elected by a wider majority than in 2003.

Hamilton, Burlington & Niagara

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Liberal Progressive Conservative New Democrats Green
Seats 4 3 3 0

An area with several close seats, and a fairly even distribution of seats, every party had a realistic chance of increasing its seat count here. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek, which was a merger of a Liberal held riding and an NDP held riding, and had neither incumbent running, was the most interesting match of the night, with the NDP winning a close race. It proved to be the only change of the election, and every other riding returned the incumbent party, although many in close races, such as Hamilton Mountain (Liberals over NDP), Halton, (PCs over Liberals) and Burlington (PCs over Liberals).

Southwestern Ontario

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Liberal Progressive Conservative New Democrats Green
Seats 9 1 0 0

In an area with a strong rural-urban divide, both the NDP and PCs had strong hopes of making gains against the Liberals. The NDP had strong hopes of upsetting high-profile Liberals in both Windsor West, and Windsor—Tecumseh, given the NDP's ownership of those seats federally, and the continued decline of the local industrial economy. London—Fanshawe was similarly also a top target, as the NDP had the riding federally and finished a close second in 2003. Overall, however, the only area seat that changed hands was Sarnia—Lambton, with Culture Minister Caroline Di Cocco, the most high-profile Liberal casualty of the night, losing to PC challenger Bob Bailey.

Toronto

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Liberal Progressive Conservative New Democrats Green
Seats 18 0 4 0

All ridings in Toronto were retained by their incumbent parties, with the exception of York South—Weston. New Democrat Paul Ferreira, who had won the seat from the Liberals in a by-election in February 2007, was narrowly defeated by a swing back to Liberal candidate Laura Albanese. Almost twice as many people voted in the riding in the general election compared to the by-election.

In Toronto's other notable race, Liberal incumbent Kathleen Wynne defeated PC leader John Tory in Don Valley West. Tory previously represented Dufferin—Caledon, but had chosen to run in a Toronto riding in the general election.

Toronto's only incumbent from 2003 not to run again was Liberal MPP Mary Anne Chambers. The Liberals successfully retained the seat under new candidate Margarett Best.

See also

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References

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Notes

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  1. ^ Tory represented Dufferin—Peel—Wellington—Grey in the previous legislature though did not seek re-election, opting to run in Don Valley West instead.

Citations

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  1. ^ "Boring campaign behind poor voter turnout: analysts". CTV News. Toronto. October 11, 2007. Archived from the original on May 29, 2014. Retrieved May 28, 2014.
  2. ^ a b c Howlett, Karen (February 7, 2007). "Ontario government changes election date". Toronto: The Globe and Mail Newspaper. pp. Online update. Archived from the original on June 5, 2014. Retrieved May 28, 2014.
  3. ^ "Electoral System Referendum Act, 2007, S.O. 2007, c. 1 - Bill 155". July 24, 2014.
  4. ^ Alphonso, Caroline (September 10, 2007). "Ontario campaign starts with verbal attacks". The Globe and Mail. Archived from the original on May 29, 2014. Retrieved May 28, 2014.
  5. ^ "Progressive Conservatives to soften position on faith-based schools: report". Archived from the original on October 12, 2007. Retrieved October 11, 2007.
  6. ^ Christ Selley (November 21, 2015). "Progressive Conservatives to soften position on faith-based schools: report". The National Post.
  7. ^ Robin V. Sears (November 1, 2007). "How Ontario got a one-issue campaign". Archived from the original on March 12, 2018. Retrieved March 12, 2018.
  8. ^ a b c "Electoral Districts". Elections Ontario Website. Elections Ontario, Government of Ontario. 2005. Archived from the original on September 27, 2007. Retrieved August 22, 2007.
  9. ^ "Liberals ride lead in polls while PC school funding flip fails to boost support" (PDF) (Press release). SES Research/Sun Media. October 9, 2007. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 25, 2007. Retrieved October 9, 2007. The poll results, based on a one-week sample of 709 Ontarians, have a margin of error of 3.7 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
  10. ^ "Liberal Victory Imminent" (PDF) (Press release). SES Research/Sun Media. October 9, 2007. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 25, 2007. Retrieved October 9, 2007. Between October 4 and 6, 2006, random telephone survey with 501 Ontarians 18 years of age or older. The aggregate survey results are plus or minus 4.4%, 19 times out of 20. Margins of accuracy are wider for subgroup samples.
  11. ^ "Ontario Liberals Headed for Majority Government" (Press release). Environics. October 9, 2007. Archived from the original on October 12, 2007. Retrieved October 9, 2007. These results are taken from an Environics survey of 448 Ontarians eligible to vote, conducted between September 28 and October 2, 2007. The poll was conducted independently. On a provincial basis, these results are accurate to within +/- 4.7 percentage points, in 95 out of 100 samples. Green column includes other parties.
  12. ^ "Poll says Ontario Liberals have 15-point lead" (Press release). Strategic Counsel/CTV News/The Globe and Mail. October 8, 2007. Archived from the original on October 17, 2007. Retrieved October 8, 2007. Interviews were conducted between Oct. 6 and Oct. 7, 2007. Results are based on tracking among a proportionate sample of Ontarians 18 years of age or older. A total of 850 Ontarians were surveyed. The Ontario margin of error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
  13. ^ "Tory's Gambit Fails: Grits Headed For Majority Government" (Press release). Ipsos-Reid/CanWest/National Post. October 6, 2007. Archived from the original on October 10, 2007. Retrieved October 6, 2007. These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively for CanWest News Service and Global Television from October 2–4, 2007. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 800 adults living in Ontario was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within ± 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population living in Ontario been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Ontarian population according to Census data. Ipsos Reid’s companion poll was conducted on October 4–6, when a sample of 4241 adult was surveyed online via Ipsos’ I-Say Panel. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within ± 1.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population living in Ontario been polled. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Ontarian population according to Census data. There were 4% undecided.
  14. ^ "Ontario Liberals Hold Six-Point Advantage: Tory's Leadership Edge Evaporates; Now Tied with McGuinty" (PDF). Ontario Politics. Angus-Reid Strategies. October 5, 2007. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 25, 2007. Retrieved October 5, 2007. From October 4 to 5, 2007, Angus Reid Strategies conducted an online survey among a randomly selected, representative sample of 939 adults in Ontario. The margin of error for the total sample is +/- 3.2%, 19 times out of 20. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of Ontario. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. Voter intent: Notably, 10 per cent of the Ontario electorate remains undecided, 10 per cent say they will not vote, and 30 per cent (-9) say they could change their mind between now and Election Day.
  15. ^ "Liberal lead firming" (PDF). The Canadian Press/Harris-Decima. October 2, 2007. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 25, 2007. Retrieved October 3, 2007.Results of the survey of 701 residents, with its margin of error of 3.7 percentage points 19 times out of 20.
  16. ^ "Grits Move Into Majority Territory" (PDF) (Press release). SES Research/Sun Media. October 2, 2007. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 25, 2007. Retrieved October 2, 2007. The aggregate survey results, or results including the undecided voters were: Libs 39.6%; Cons 30.6%; NDP 13.5%; Greens 6.3%; Undecided 10%. The aggregate survey is accurate ± 4.4% 19 times out of 20. Margins of accuracy are wider for subgroup samples. The data was weighted for gender and age to match the Canadian census results for Ontario. Result should be considered representative of the Ontario population. 500 Ontarians were surveyed. Number of Committed voters was 450, undecided voters were 50, or 10%. With just the committed voters the results are: Libs 44; Cons 34; NDP 15; Greens 7. The margin of error increases to ± 4.7%, 19 times out of 20. The results shown in the table are for the committed voters only.
  17. ^ "Post Debate Tory Tumble Gives McGuinty Liberals Ten Point Lead" (Press release). Ipsos-Reid/CanWest/National Post. September 29, 2007. Archived from the original on October 10, 2007. Retrieved September 29, 2007. These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively for CanWest News Service and Global Television from Sep 25 to September 27, 2007. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 800 adults living in Ontario was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within ± 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population living in Ontario been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Ontarian population according to Census data.
  18. ^ "Opposition grows to funding faith-based schools, but issue has little impact on vote intention" (Press release). Environics. September 28, 2007. Archived from the original on October 11, 2007. Retrieved September 28, 2007. Between September 21st and September 25th, 2007, Environics conducted a random telephone survey of 504 Ontarians 18 years and older. The aggregate survey results are accurate ±4.4%, 19 times out of 20.
  19. ^ "Voting intentions stuck" (PDF). Ontario Politics. Canadian Press/Harris Decima. September 26, 2007. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 25, 2007. Retrieved September 28, 2007. it surveyed 706 respondents and has a margin of error of ± 3.7 per cent, 19 times out of 20 - are virtually identical to the previous week's findings.
  20. ^ "McGuinty's Grits Lead by Five Points in Ontario" (PDF). Ontario Politics. Angus-Reid Strategies. September 25, 2007. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 25, 2007. Retrieved September 26, 2007. Online interviews with 800 Ontario adults, conducted on Sept. 24 and Sept. 25, 2007. Margin of error is 3.5 per cent. Notably, 15 per cent of the Ontario electorate remains undecided and 39 per cent (-11) say they could change their mind between now and Election Day.
  21. ^ Nanos, Nikita (September 25, 2007). "Grits Lead by Eight Points" (PDF). Ontario Politics. SES Research/Sun Media. Archived (PDF) from the original on September 26, 2007. Retrieved September 25, 2007. The aggregate survey results, or results including the undecided voters were: Libs 35; Cons 27; NDP 15; Greens 7; Undecided 14. The aggregate survey is accurate ± 4.4% 19 times out of 20. Margins of accuracy are wider for subgroup samples. The data was weighted for gender and age to match the Canadian census results for Ontario. Result should be considered representative of the Ontario population. 500 Ontarians were surveyed. Number of Committed voters was 433, undecided voters were 67, or 14%. With just the committed voters the results are: Libs 41; Cons 33; NDP 18; Greens 8. The margin of error increases to ± 4.9%, 19 times out of 20. The results shown in the table are for the committed voters only.
  22. ^ "Will Hot Debate Thaw Frozen Voters?" (Press release). Ipsos-Reid/CanWest/National Post. September 20, 2007. Archived from the original on December 21, 2016. Retrieved September 20, 2007. These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively for CanWest News Service and Global Television from September 11 to September 18, 2007. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 800 adults living in Ontario was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within ±3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population living in Ontario been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Ontarian population according to Census data.
  23. ^ Perkel, Colin (September 19, 2007). "Liberals maintain lead over Tories in latest poll". Toronto: The Canadian Press/Harris-Decima. Archived from the original on December 21, 2016. Retrieved September 19, 2007.Results of the survey of 704 residents, with its margin of error of 3.7 percentage points 19 times out of 20, is substantially similar to a poll done for The Canadian Press in the days just before the campaign formally got underway Sept. 10
  24. ^ Howlett, Karen (September 18, 2007). "Ontario voters pan faith-based education: poll". Toronto: CTV News/The Globe and Mail. Archived from the original on May 29, 2014. Retrieved May 28, 2014. The survey of 850 Ontarians was conducted from Sept. 13 to Sept. 16, and is considered accurate to within 3.4 percentage points, 95 per cent of the time.
  25. ^ "Ontario vote essentially stagnant after 1st week" (Press release). Ipsos-Reid/CanWest/National Post. September 15, 2007. Archived from the original on October 10, 2007. Retrieved September 16, 2007. These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively for CanWest News Service and Global Television from Sep 4 to September 13, 2007. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 800 adults living in Ontario was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within ± 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population living in Ontario been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Ontarian population according to Census data.
  26. ^ "Ontarians divided over proposal to extend public funding to all religious schools" (Press release). Environics. September 13, 2007. Archived from the original on October 3, 2007. Retrieved September 14, 2007. These results are taken from an Environics survey of 501 Ontarians aged 18 and older, conducted between September 6 and 9, 2007. The poll was conducted independently. On a provincial basis, these results are accurate to within +/-4.38 percentage points, in 95 out of 100 samples.The Green party again was not a prompt. Instead, in the poll, it lists 9% of voters would pick 'Other'. The poll also found that 21% of voters in the survey were undecided. The poll asked questions about funding faith-based schools, and found the electorate is roughly split down the middle. The question wordings were: (1) If a provincial election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for? (2) ([If "Undecided" ask) Perhaps you have not yet made up your mind; is there nevertheless a party you might be presently inclined to support?
  27. ^ "Liberals Lead by Two Points in Ontario". Polls & Research. Angus Reid Global Monitor. September 14, 2007. Archived from the original on October 12, 2007. Retrieved September 14, 2007. Source: Angus Reid Strategies. Methodology: Online interviews with 725 Ontario adults, conducted on Sept. 7 and Sept. 8, 2007. Margin of error is 3.6 per cent. PDF file is available here "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on September 26, 2007. Retrieved September 14, 2007.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  28. ^ Perkel, Colin (September 12, 2007). "Liberals lead Conservatives in poll". Decima Research/Toronto Star. Archived from the original on October 11, 2007. Retrieved September 12, 2007. The poll's margin of error is 3.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. But the pollsters also combined the survey with polling conducted during the previous two weeks, creating a rolling average with an error margin of about 3.1 percentage points.
  29. ^ "Liberal lead over Tories slipping in Ontario: poll". Ipsos-Reid/CanWest/National Post. September 10, 2007. Archived from the original on January 18, 2013. Retrieved September 10, 2007. The Ipsos Reid telephone poll was conducted with a random sample of 801 respondents between Aug. 30 and Sept. 8. The results are considered accurate within 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
  30. ^ Nanos, Nikita (August 30, 2007). "Ontario grits lead by six points" (PDF). Ontario Politics. SES Research/Sun Media. Archived (PDF) from the original on September 26, 2007. Retrieved August 30, 2007. The aggregate survey results, or results including the undecided voters were: Libs 34; Cons 28; NDP 16; Greens 7; Undecided 15. The aggregate survey is accurate ± 4.4% 19 times out of 20. Margins of accuracy are wider for subgroup samples. The data was weighted for gender and age to match the Canadian census results for Ontario. Result should be considered representative of the Ontario population. 501 Ontarians were surveyed. Number of Committed voters was 425, undecided voters were 76, or 15%. With just the committed voters the results are: Libs 40; Cons 34; NDP 19; Greens 8. The margin of error increases to ± 4.9%, 19 times out of 20. The results shown in the table are for the committed voters only.
  31. ^ "As the Ontario Election Draws Near, The GTA moves Red while the Rest of Ontario moves Blue". CanWest Polls. Ipsos-Reid/CanWest. September 10, 2007. Archived from the original on October 10, 2007. Retrieved August 21, 2007. These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively for CanWest News Service and Global Television from Aug 14 to Aug 23, 2007. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 760 adults living in Ontario was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within ± 3.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population living in Ontario been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Ontarian population according to Census data
  32. ^ "As the Ontario Election Draws Near, The GTA moves Red while the Rest of Ontario moves Blue". CanWest Polls. Ipsos-Reid/CanWest. August 21, 2007. Archived from the original on September 27, 2007. Retrieved August 21, 2007. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 800 adults living in Ontario was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within ±3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population living in Ontario been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Ontarian population according to Census data.
  33. ^ Howlett, Karen (August 20, 2007). "McGuinty support slips to minority status, poll finds". Ontario Politics. Toronto: The Globe and Mail/CTV News. Archived from the original on September 6, 2008. Retrieved August 20, 2007. The poll of 750 Ontarians is considered accurate to within 3.6 percentage points, 95 per cent of the time.
  34. ^ "Race Tightens as Summer Heats Up" (PDF). Ipsos-Reid/CanWest Polls. July 3, 2007. Archived from the original (PDF) on July 10, 2007. Retrieved July 8, 2007. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 801 adults living in Ontario was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within ±3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population living in Ontario been polled.
  35. ^ "Provincial Party Support March 2007" (Press release). Environics. July 2, 2007. Archived from the original on August 22, 2007. Retrieved September 10, 2007. The previous results are based on a survey conducted by telephone between June 5 and 30, 2007 among a probability sample of 2,021 adult residents of Canada (aged 18 or older). The sample, which was stratified by region and by community size, is estimated to be accurate within 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The question wordings were: (1) If a provincial election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for? (2) ([If "Undecided" ask) Perhaps you have not yet made up your mind; is there nevertheless a party you might be presently inclined to support?
  36. ^ Kalinoswski, Tess (June 16, 2007). "A $17,5B transit promise". The Toronto Star. Archived from the original on February 3, 2015. Retrieved June 18, 2007. 1001 people were canvassed with 15% undecided. Poll is accurate to within 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.
  37. ^ a b "Ontario Liberals and PCs in Dead Heat" (PDF) (Press release). SES Research. June 3, 2007. Archived (PDF) from the original on June 14, 2007. Retrieved June 10, 2007.The aggregate survey results, or results including the undecided voters were: Libs 30; Cons 30; NDP 16; Greens 9; Undecided 15. The aggregate survey is accurate ± 4.4% 19 times out of 20. Margins of accuracy are wider for subgroup samples. The data was weighted for gender and age to match the Canadian census results for Ontario. Result should be considered representative of the Ontario population. 500 Ontarians were surveyed. Number of Committed voters was 424, undecided voters were 76, or 15%. With just the committed voters the results are: Libs 40; Cons 34; NDP 19; Greens 8. The margin of error increases to ± 4.9%, 19 times out of 20. The results shown in the table are for the committed voters only.
  38. ^ a b "Provincial Party Support March 2007" (Press release). Environics. May 18, 2007. Archived from the original on May 29, 2007. Retrieved May 23, 2007.
  39. ^ "Ontario Politics With Just Over 7 Months To "E" Day Liberals(38%) Lead Tories (33%), NDP (17%) And Green (9%)" (Press release). Ipsos-Reid. February 24, 2007. Archived from the original on September 27, 2007. Retrieved May 23, 2007.
  40. ^ "Provincial Party Support December 2006" (Press release). Environics. January 5, 2007. Archived from the original on June 29, 2007. Retrieved June 10, 2007. The sample of 2045 adult residents of Canada, which was stratified by region and by community size, is estimated to be accurate within 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
  41. ^ "Ontario Political Landscape" (PDF) (Press release). SES Research. December 17, 2006. Archived (PDF) from the original on June 14, 2007. Retrieved June 10, 2007. The aggregate survey results, or results including the undecided voters were: Libs 36; Cons 30; NDP 14; Greens 6; Undecided 14. The aggregate survey is accurate ± 4.4% 19 times out of 20. Margins of accuracy are wider for subgroup samples. The data was weighted for gender and age to match the Canadian census results for Ontario. Result should be considered representative of the Ontario population. 500 Ontarians were surveyed. Number of Committed voters was 429, undecided voters were 71, or 14%. With just the committed voters the results are: Libs 40; Cons 34; NDP 19; Greens 8. The margin of error increases to ± 4.7%, 19 times out of 20. The results shown in the table are for the committed voters only.
  42. ^ "Ontario Liberals establish solid lead" (Press release). Environics. October 26, 2006. Archived from the original on September 27, 2007. Retrieved June 10, 2007. The sample of 579 adult eligible voters in Ontario, is estimated to be accurate within +/- 4.1% points, 95 times out of 100 samples. 2% would vote for other parties, while 12% had no preference.
  43. ^ "Ontario Liberals With Clear Lead" (Press release). EKOS. October 18, 2006. Archived from the original on June 1, 2007. Retrieved June 10, 2007. 584 Ontarians were polled. Decided voters were 492. 1.8 percent of respondents would vote for "Other", which includes the Green Party. Sample size produces a statistical margin of error of +/-4.1%, 19 times out of 20.
  44. ^ "Ontario Liberals Lead by Seven Points" (PDF) (Press release). SES Research. October 7, 2006. Archived (PDF) from the original on June 14, 2007. Retrieved June 10, 2007. 500 voting age Ontarians were polled. Sample is accurate to within plus or minus 4.4% 19 times out of 20. 11% undecided.
  45. ^ "Provincial Party Support results June 2006" (Press release). Environics. September 9, 2006. Archived from the original on January 5, 2007. Retrieved June 11, 2007. The sample of 2036 adult residents of Canada, which was stratified by region and by community size, is estimated to be accurate within 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. 1% preferred other parties, while 8% had no party preference.
  46. ^ "Liberal Minister Kathleen Wynne Leading by Wide Margin: PC Schooling Promise Stirs Unease about Integrating Immigrants" (PDF) (Press release). COMPAS/Ottawa Citizen. October 1, 2007. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 25, 2007. Retrieved October 6, 2007. An Ottawa Citizen/COMPAS poll in John Tory’s riding of Don Valley West was carried out carefully over a five-day period, September 25–29, 2007, to minimize the risk of sampling error. It shows the Liberal incumbent with a 15% lead over the PC leader, as shown in table 1. By convention, the poll of 333 voters is deemed accurate to within approximately 5.6 percentage points 19 times out of 20.
  47. ^ http://www.gpo.ca/sites/greenparty.on.ca/files/Bruce%20Grey%20Owen%20Sound%20Riding%20Report.doc[permanent dead link‍]
  48. ^ The Sudbury Star - Ontario, CA
  49. ^ "Provincial Tories Tied with McGuinty Liberals – NDP also Gains Ground" (Press release). Environics. August 9, 2004. Archived from the original on September 27, 2007. Retrieved May 23, 2007.
  50. ^ "March 30 By-elections - Unofficial Results". Elections Ontario. March 30, 2006. Archived from the original on April 20, 2006.
  51. ^ "Gerard Kennedy resigns from Ontario legislature". CTV. May 18, 2006. Archived from the original on October 12, 2007. Retrieved May 23, 2007.
  52. ^ "Official results Parkdale–High Park by-election". 2006 By-elections. Elections Ontario. September 14, 2006. Archived from the original on June 27, 2007. Retrieved May 23, 2007.
  53. ^ Urquhart, Ian (September 27, 2006). "Passing ships firing cannonballs at McGuinty". Opinions. The Toronto Star. p. A13. Archived from the original on October 1, 2007. Retrieved May 23, 2007.
  54. ^ Benzie, Robert (September 26, 2006). "Tony Wong hopes to return to region". News. Markham Economist & Sun. Archived from the original on October 1, 2007. Retrieved May 23, 2007.
  55. ^ Cox, Christine (September 29, 2006). "Jackson joins race for Burlington mayor". Local. The Hamilton Spectator. Archived from the original on October 1, 2007. Retrieved May 23, 2007.
  56. ^ Elections Ontario, Unofficial results[permanent dead link‍] [York South—Weston]. 216 of 216 polls reporting. Accessed February 8, 2007
  57. ^ Elections Ontario, Unofficial results[permanent dead link‍] [Markham]. 295 of 295 polls reporting. Accessed February 8, 2007
  58. ^ Elections Ontario, Unofficial results[permanent dead link‍] [Burlington]. 260 of 260 polls reporting. Accessed February 8, 2007
  59. ^ Benzie, Robert; Rob Ferguson (March 29, 2007). "MPP Peterson, brother of ex-premier, to join Tories". News. The Toronto Star. Archived from the original on March 5, 2016. Retrieved May 23, 2007.
  60. ^ Campbell, Murray (April 25, 2007). "Ontario acts to undo electoral apathy". The Globe and Mail. Toronto. Archived from the original on June 5, 2014. Retrieved May 28, 2014.
  61. ^ Ferguson, Rob (May 18, 2007). "MPP Shelley Martel won't run again". The Toronto Star. Archived from the original on March 7, 2016. Retrieved May 18, 2007.
  62. ^ a b c "An Act to amend the Election Act and the Election Finances Act and to make related amendments to other Acts" (PDF). Second Session of the Ontario's 38th Legislature. Legislative Assembly of Ontario. June 4, 2007. Archived from the original (PDF) on June 14, 2007. Retrieved June 10, 2007.
  63. ^ a b Howlett, Karen (June 6, 2007). "McGuinty admits health tax will haunt him". The Globe and Mail. Toronto. Archived from the original on June 5, 2014. Retrieved May 28, 2014.
  64. ^ Canadian Press (June 4, 2007). "Slew of bills set to die as Queen's Park prepares to adjourn". The Globe and Mail. Toronto. Retrieved June 10, 2007.[permanent dead link‍]
  65. ^ Benzie, Robert (July 11, 2007). "Chambers won't run again". The Toronto Star. Archived from the original on September 29, 2007. Retrieved July 11, 2007.
  66. ^ Cohen, Tobi; Puxley, Chinta; Canadian Press (July 26, 2007). "Minister quits over grants". News. The Toronto Star. Archived from the original on September 3, 2014. Retrieved July 26, 2007.
  67. ^ Campbell, Murray (April 28, 2007). "Ontario election to be called Sept. 10". The Globe and Mail. Toronto. Archived from the original on June 5, 2014. Retrieved May 28, 2014.
  68. ^ "Candidates' election calendar". Elections Ontario. Archived from the original on September 28, 2007. Retrieved August 20, 2007.

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