Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) is a collective term from futures studies for analyzing future technology and its consequences.[1][2] It includes technology intelligence, technology forecasting, technology roadmapping, technology assessment, and technology foresight. Technology Futures Analysis or Technology Future Analysis (TFA) is a synonym.[1][3]
Future-oriented technology analysis shares common methods with horizon scanning.[4][5]
Definitions
edit| Year | Definition |
|---|---|
| 2004 | Technology futures analysis is "any process to produce judgments about emerging technology characteristics, development pathways, and potential impacts of a technology in the future. ... [TFA] encompasses the broad technology foresight and assessment studies of the public sector and the technology forecasting and intelligence studies in private industry."[6] |
| 2013 | Future-oriented technology analysis is "an umbrella term to denote several decision-preparatory tools - (technology) foresight, forecasting and technology assessment - and thus it is not a discipline with solid, widely accepted theoretical foundations."[7] |
Methods
edit| Method | Family |
|---|---|
| Agent based modeling | Modeling and simulation |
| Analytical hierarchy process | Valuing/decision/economic |
| Backcasting | Descriptive and matrices |
| Bibliometrics | Monitoring and intelligence, Statistics |
| Brainstorming | Creativity |
| Cross impact analysis | Modeling and simulation, Statistics |
| Delphi | Expert Opinion |
| Multicriteria decision analyses | Valuing/decision/economic |
| Relevance tree | Descriptive and matrices, Valuing/decision/economic |
| Risk analysis | Descriptive and matrices, Valuing/decision/economic |
| Roadmapping | Descriptive and matrices |
| Scenarios | Scenarios |
| Social impact assessment | Descriptive and matrices |
| Stakeholder analysis | Descriptive and matrices, Valuing/decision/economic |
| Sustainability analysis | Descriptive and matrices, Modeling and simulation |
| System dynamics | Modeling and simulation |
| Technology assessment | Descriptive and matrices, Modeling and simulation |
| TRIZ | Creativity |
References
edit- ^ a b Filip, F. G.; Dragomirescu, H.; Predescu, R.; Ilie, R. (2004). "IT tools for foresight studies". Studies in Informatics and Control (13): 161-168.
- ^ "Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 71 (3): 287–303. 1 March 2004. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2003.11.004. ISSN 0040-1625. S2CID 18904868.
- ^ Sánchez-Torres, J. M.; Miles, I. (16 December 2017). "The role of future-oriented technology analysis in e-Government: a systematic review". European Journal of Futures Research. 5 (1): 15. doi:10.1007/s40309-017-0131-7. ISSN 2195-2248. S2CID 9744177.
- ^ Eerola, A.; Miles, I. (1 April 2011). "Methods and tools contributing to FTA: A knowledge-based perspective". Futures. 43 (3): 265–278. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2010.11.005. ISSN 0016-3287.
- ^ Tagiew, Rustam; Witzler, Sebastian; Portier, Martin (14 July 2022). "Towards Assessing Digital Technologies for the Future of Mobility". Social Science Research Network. SSRN 4151745.
{{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires|journal=(help) - ^ "Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 71 (3): 287–303. 1 March 2004. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2003.11.004. ISSN 0040-1625. S2CID 18904868.
- ^ Cagnin, Cristiano; Havas, Attila; Saritas, Ozcan (1 March 2013). "Future-oriented technology analysis: Its potential to address disruptive transformations". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 80 (3): 379–385. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2012.10.001. ISSN 0040-1625. S2CID 60530892.
- ^ "Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 71 (3): 287–303. 1 March 2004. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2003.11.004. ISSN 0040-1625. S2CID 18904868.