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2024 Texas Senate election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2024 Texas Senate election

← 2022 November 5, 2024 2026 →

15 of the 31 seats in the Texas Senate
16 seats needed for a majority
  Majority party Minority party
 
Leader Angela Paxton Carol Alvarado
Party Republican Democratic
Leader since September 16, 2023 January 8, 2020
Leader's seat 8thMcKinney 6thHouston
Last election 19 seats, 54.06% 12 seats, 41.94%
Seats after 20 11
Seat change Increase 1 Decrease 1
Popular vote 2,196,004 2,678,156
Percentage 45.00% 54.88%
Swing Decrease 9.06% Increase 12.94%

     Republican hold      Republican gain
     Democratic hold
     No election
Republican:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
Democratic:      60–70%      ≥90%

Majority Leader before election

Angela Paxton
Republican

Elected Majority Leader

TBD

Elections to the Texas Senate will be held on November 5, 2024, for 15 of the 31 Senate districts across the state of Texas. Numerous other federal, state, and local elections will also be held on this date. The winners of this election will serve full four-year terms covering the 89th Texas Legislature and the 90th Texas Legislature. Republicans have held a majority in the Texas Senate since January 14, 1997, as a result of the 1996 elections. Republicans won eight of the fifteen seats up for election, flipping one from the Democrats. Due to the high number of uncontested seats, however, Democratic candidates received more votes statewide than Republican candidates.

Primary elections were held on March 5, 2024, and any necessary runoffs were held on May 28.[1]

Background

[edit]

Republicans expanded their majority by one seat to a 19–12 margin in the 2022 elections, picking up a seat anchored in Tarrant County that had been redrawn to significantly favor them but failing to win a competitive seat in the Rio Grande Valley.[2]

During the regular session, the legislature expanded school armed security measures, banned diversity, equity and inclusion offices at universities, and allowed school districts to hire or volunteer chaplains for mental health support for students.[3][4][5] Republican infighting in the House led to the collapse of a school voucher bill during the regular session despite the Senate easily passing it. Governor Greg Abbott vowed to call special sessions until it passed.[6] Efforts to legalize online sports betting and casino gambling found a resurgence in the House late in the session, with a bill to legalize online sports betting passing the House.[7] Neither proposal received any hearings in the Senate due to opposition from lieutenant governor Dan Patrick.[8][9]

On May 27, 2023, the House voted 121–23 to impeach attorney general Ken Paxton after a House committee found that he had used taxpayer funds to settle a legal dispute.[10][11][12] The Senate voted to acquit him of all charges in September 2023.[13]

Retirements

[edit]

One incumbent will not seek re-election.

Republicans

[edit]
  1. District 30: Drew Springer is retiring.[14]

Incumbents defeated

[edit]

In the general election

[edit]

Democrats

[edit]
  1. District 27: Morgan LaMantia lost to Adam Hinojosa.[15]

Special elections

[edit]
  1. District 15: John Whitmire (D) was elected Mayor of Houston in 2023 and resigned from the Senate on December 31, 2023.[16] Molly Cook won the special election held on May 4, 2024.[17][18]
Texas's 15th State Senate District Special Election, 2024[19]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Molly Cook 9,370 57.06%
Democratic Jarvis Johnson 7,052 42.94%
Total votes 16,422 100.0%
Democratic hold

Campaign

[edit]

Democrat Nathan Johnson was the only incumbent senator being challenged in the primary elections.[20] Republican Drew Springer's retirement and Democrat John Whitmire's resignation created open races for their seats.[14][16] Democrat Morgan LaMantia was the only senator expected to face a competitive general election.[21]

Predictions

[edit]

Due to the size of the Republicans' majority and the low number of competitive seats, most analysts consider a change in control of the chamber to be unlikely.

Statewide

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
CNalysis[22] Solid R August 6, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[23] Safe R June 18, 2024

Competitive districts

[edit]
District Incumbent Last Result[24] CNalysis[a]
Oct. 21, 2024[25]
Result
27th Morgan LaMantia 50.18% D Tilt R (flip) 49.38% R (flip)

Summary of results by district

[edit]

† - Incumbent not seeking re-election

State Senate District Incumbent Party Elected Senator Party
6th Carol Alvarado Dem Carol Alvarado Dem
7th Paul Bettencourt Rep Paul Bettencourt Rep
8th Angela Paxton Rep Angela Paxton Rep
10th Phil King Rep Phil King Rep
12th Tan Parker Rep Tan Parker Rep
14th Sarah Eckhardt Dem Sarah Eckhardt Dem
15th Molly Cook[b] Dem Molly Cook Dem
16th Nathan M. Johnson Dem Nathan M. Johnson Dem
17th Joan Huffman Rep Joan Huffman Rep
20th Juan Hinojosa Dem Juan Hinojosa Dem
23rd Royce West Dem Royce West Dem
25th Donna Campbell Rep Donna Campbell Rep
27th Morgan LaMantia Dem Adam Hinojosa Rep
29th Cesar Blanco Dem Cesar Blanco Dem
30th Drew Springer Rep Brent Hagenbuch Rep

Detailed results

[edit]

District 6District 7District 8District 10District 12District 14District 15District 16District 17District 20District 23District 25District 27District 29District 30

District 6

[edit]

Incumbent Democrat Carol Alvarado is running for re-election.

District 6 Democratic primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Carol Alvarado (incumbent) 20,759 100.00%
Total votes 20,759 100.00%
District 6 Republican primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Martha Fierro 10,542 100.00%
Total votes 10,542 100.00%
District 6 election
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Carol Alvarado (incumbent) 119,280 63.01%
Republican Martha Fierro 70,013 36.99%
Total votes 189,293 100.00%
Democratic hold

District 7

[edit]

Incumbent Republican Paul Bettencourt is running for re-election.

District 7 Republican primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Paul Bettencourt (incumbent) 62,230 100.00%
Total votes 62,230 100.00%
District 7 Democratic primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Michelle Gwinn 12,707 55.66%
Democratic Nasir Malik 10,122 44.34%
Total votes 22,829 100.00%
District 7 election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Paul Bettencourt (incumbent) 251,489 63.41%
Democratic Michelle Gwinn 145,100 36.59%
Total votes 396,589 100.00%
Republican hold

District 8

[edit]

Incumbent Republican Angela Paxton is running for re-election.

District 8 Republican primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Angela Paxton (incumbent) 68,007 100.00%
Total votes 68,007 100.00%
District 8 Democratic primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Rachel Mello 23,078 100.00%
Total votes 23,078 100.00%
District 8 election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Angela Paxton (incumbent) 269,743 59.36%
Democratic Rachel Mello 184,642 40.64%
Total votes 454,385 100.00%
Republican hold

District 10

[edit]

Incumbent Republican Phil King is running for re-election.

District 10 Republican primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Phil King (incumbent) 71,277 100.00%
Total votes 71,277 100.00%
District 10 Democratic primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Andy Morris 24,306 100.00%
Total votes 24,306 100.00%
District 10 election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Phil King (incumbent) 227,475 61.71%
Democratic Andy Morris 141,163 38.29%
Total votes 368,638 100.00%
Republican hold

District 12

[edit]

Incumbent Republican Tan Parker is running for re-election.

District 12 Republican primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Tan Parker (incumbent) 83,322 100.00%
Total votes 83,322 100.00%
District 12 Democratic primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Stephanie Draper 29,671 100.00%
Total votes 29,671 100.00%
District 12 election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Tan Parker (incumbent) 277,734 61.36%
Democratic Stephanie Draper 174,875 38.64%
Total votes 452,609 100.00%
Republican hold

District 14

[edit]

Incumbent Democrat Sarah Eckhardt is running for re-election unopposed.

District 14 Democratic primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Sarah Eckhardt (incumbent) 64,908 100.00%
Total votes 64,908 100.00%
District 14 election
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Sarah Eckhardt (incumbent) 321,035 100.00%
Total votes 321,035 100.00%
Democratic hold

District 15

[edit]

Former Senator, Democrat John Whitmire was elected Mayor of Houston in 2023 and resigned from this seat, creating a vacancy.[16] A special election to fill his unexpired term was held on May 4, 2024, with Molly Cook winning.[17] Cook narrowly won the Democratic primary runoff for a full term on May 28.[26]

District 15 Democratic primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jarvis Johnson 17,953 36.19%
Democratic Molly Cook 10,213 20.59%
Democratic Todd Litton 7,859 15.84%
Democratic Michelle Anderson Bonton 5,291 10.67%
Democratic Alberto "Beto" Cardenas 5,196 10.48%
Democratic Karthik Soora 3,091 6.23%
Total votes 49,603 100.00%
District 15 Democratic primary runoff
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Molly Cook (incumbent) 9,506 50.16%
Democratic Jarvis Johnson 9,444 49.84%
Total votes 18,782 100.00%
District 15 Republican primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Joseph L. Trahan 23,627 100.00%
Total votes 23,627 100.00%
District 15 election
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Molly Cook (incumbent) 200,680 61.90%
Republican Joseph L. Trahan 123,515 38.10%
Total votes 324,195 100.00%
Democratic hold


District 16

[edit]

Incumbent Democrat Nathan M. Johnson is running for re-election. He defeated state representative Victoria Neave in the Democratic primary and is unopposed in the general election.[20]

District 16 Democratic primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Nathan M. Johnson (incumbent) 19,734 59.19%
Democratic Victoria Neave 13,604 40.81%
Total votes 33,338 100.00%
District 16 election
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Nathan M. Johnson (incumbent) 187,557 100.00%
Total votes 187,557 100.00%
Democratic hold

District 17

[edit]

Incumbent Republican Joan Huffman is running for re-election.

District 17 Republican primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Joan Huffman (incumbent) 70,144 100.00%
Total votes 70,144 100.00%
District 17 Democratic primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Kathy Cheng 21,812 100.00%
Total votes 21,812 100.00%
District 17 election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Joan Huffman (incumbent) 238,328 64.16%
Democratic Kathy Cheng 133,127 35.84%
Total votes 371,455 100.00%
Republican hold

District 20

[edit]

Incumbent Democrat Juan Hinojosa is running for re-election unopposed.

District 20 Democratic primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Juan Hinojosa (incumbent) 33,481 100.00%
Total votes 33,481 100.00%
District 20 election
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Juan Hinojosa (incumbent) 178,987 100.00%
Total votes 178,987 100.00%
Democratic hold

District 23

[edit]

Incumbent Democrat Royce West is running for re-election unopposed.

District 23 Democratic primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Royce West (incumbent) 54,893 100.00%
Total votes 54,893 100.00%
District 23 election
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Royce West (incumbent) 253,413 100.00%
Total votes 253,413 100.00%
Democratic hold

District 25

[edit]

Incumbent Republican Donna Campbell is running for re-election.

District 25 Republican primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Donna Campbell (incumbent) 93,986 100.00%
Total votes 93,986 100.00%
District 25 Democratic primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Merrie Fox 31,717 100.00%
Total votes 31,717 100.00%
District 25 election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Donna Campbell (incumbent) 321,653 63.57%
Democratic Merrie Fox 184,312 36.43%
Total votes 505,965 100.00%
Republican hold

District 27

[edit]

Incumbent Democrat Morgan LaMantia is running for re-election. She faces a rematch against Republican Adam Hinojosa, whom she narrowly defeated in 2022.[27][28] This race is the only one in the state expected to have a competitive general election.[21] Hinojosa has been endorsed by former Democratic senator Eddie Lucio Jr., who held the seat before LaMantia, citing Hinojosa's pro-life position on abortion.[29]

District 27 Democratic primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Morgan LaMantia (incumbent) 29,903 100.00%
Total votes 29,903 100.00%
District 27 Republican primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Adam Hinojosa 31,331 100.00%
Total votes 31,331 100.00%
District 27 election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Adam Hinojosa 126,073 49.38%
Democratic Morgan LaMantia (incumbent) 123,305 48.29%
Green Hunter Crow 5,956 2.33%
Total votes 255,334 100.00%
Republican gain from Democratic

District 29

[edit]

Incumbent Democrat Cesar Blanco is running for re-election unopposed.

District 29 Democratic primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Cesar Blanco (incumbent) 33,079 100.00%
Total votes 33,079 100.00%
District 29 election
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Cesar Blanco (incumbent) 174,731 100.00%
Total votes 174,731 100.00%
Democratic hold

District 30

[edit]

Incumbent Republican Drew Springer is retiring.[14]

District 30 Republican primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Brent Hagenbuch 35,262 36.38%
Republican Jace Yarbrough 32,899 33.94%
Republican Carrie de Moor 17,069 17.61%
Republican Cody Clark 11,704 12.07%
Total votes 96,934 100.00%
District 30 Republican primary runoff
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Brent Hagenbuch 18,779 56.65%
Republican Jace Yarbrough 14,368 43.35%
Total votes 33,147 100.00%
District 30 Democratic primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Michael Braxton 7,833 37.72%
Democratic Dale Frey 6,856 33.02%
Democratic Matthew McGhee 6,077 29.26%
Total votes 20,766 100.00%
District 30 Democratic primary runoff
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Dale Frey 1,737 56.99%
Democratic Michael Braxton 1,311 43.01%
Total votes 3,048 100.00%
District 30 election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Brent Hagenbuch 289,981 65.03%
Democratic Dale Frey 155,949 34.97%
Total votes 445,930 100.00%
Republican hold

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ CNalysis has two separate sets of predictions: Classic (Analyst ratings only), and Expanded (Classic alongside recent statewide election results). This table uses the Classic set.
  2. ^ Elected in a May 4, 2024, special election to fill incumbent vacancy left by Democrat John Whitmire, who resigned to become Mayor of Houston on December 31, 2023.

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Texas State Senate elections, 2024". Ballotpedia. Retrieved June 16, 2023.
  2. ^ Barragán, Zach Despart and James (November 9, 2022). "Republicans narrowly increase their majorities in Texas Legislature". The Texas Tribune. Retrieved February 13, 2024.
  3. ^ Henvey, Winston (September 15, 2023). "Learn how Allen ISD's new armed security aims to keep students safe". Allen American. Star Local Media. Archived from the original on September 20, 2023.
  4. ^ McGee, Kate (April 19, 2023). "Texas Senate approves bill that would ban diversity programs in public universities". Texas Tribune. Archived from the original on September 29, 2023.
  5. ^ Henvey, Winston (November 15, 2023). "Allen ISD considers policy around chaplains for mental health support". Allen American. Star Local Media. Archived from the original on November 20, 2023.
  6. ^ Watkins, Kate McGee and Matthew (May 30, 2023). "The regular Texas legislative session started with a record budget surplus and ended with an impeached attorney general". The Texas Tribune. Retrieved February 13, 2024.
  7. ^ Svitek, Patrick (May 11, 2023). "In dramatic vote, Texas House approves online sports betting measure". The Texas Tribune. Retrieved October 7, 2024.
  8. ^ Autullo, Ryan (May 12, 2023). "Eight resort-style casinos in Texas? Not likely after proposal dies in House". Austin American-Statesman. Retrieved October 7, 2024.
  9. ^ "The Push for Casino Gambling and Sports Betting in Texas: Key Legislation and Debate". Texas Policy Research. September 18, 2024. Retrieved October 7, 2024.
  10. ^ Despart, Zach; Barragán, James (May 27, 2023). "Texas AG Ken Paxton impeached, suspended from duties pending outcome of Senate trial". The Texas Tribune. Archived from the original on May 27, 2023. Retrieved May 27, 2023.
  11. ^ Vertuno, Jim; Bleiberg, Jake (May 27, 2023). "Why Texas' GOP-controlled House wants to impeach Republican attorney general". AP News. Archived from the original on May 26, 2023. Retrieved May 27, 2023.
  12. ^ Plohetski, Tony (May 27, 2023). "How a $3.3M settlement against Texas AG Ken Paxton put him on path to impeachment vote". Austin American-Statesman. Archived from the original on May 28, 2023. Retrieved May 28, 2023.
  13. ^ Timm, Jane C. (September 16, 2023). "Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton acquitted in impeachment trial". NBC News. Retrieved February 13, 2024.
  14. ^ a b c Svitek, Patrick (November 7, 2023). "State Sen. Drew Springer will not seek reelection in 2024". The Texas Tribune. Retrieved December 24, 2023.
  15. ^ Downey, Renzo (November 6, 2024). "Adam Hinojosa flips Texas Senate seat, becomes first Republican to represent Rio Grande Valley district since Reconstruction". Texas Tribune. Retrieved November 7, 2024.
  16. ^ a b c Church, Abby (January 1, 2024). "John Whitmire is officially sworn in as Houston mayor in private ceremony". Houston Chronicle. Retrieved January 20, 2024.
  17. ^ a b Cheng, Yilun (January 19, 2024). "Texas Senate hopefuls vie to fill Mayor John Whitmire's vacated seat". Houston Chronicle. Retrieved January 20, 2023.
  18. ^ Harris, Cayla (May 5, 2024). "Houston's Whitmire to seek state Senate seat". Houston Chronicle. Retrieved May 5, 2024.
  19. ^ "Texas State Senate District 15 Special General". DDHQ. May 5, 2024. Retrieved May 5, 2024.
  20. ^ a b Jankowski, Philip; Jeffers Jr., Gromer (December 13, 2023). "Texas Rep. Victoria Neave Criado to challenge state Sen. Nathan Johnson in March primary". Dallas News. Retrieved February 13, 2024.
  21. ^ a b Svitek, Patrick (March 15, 2023). "Texas Democrats and Republicans are on the hunt for rare chances to flip seats in 2024". The Texas Tribune. Retrieved February 13, 2024.
  22. ^ "24 TX Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com. Retrieved March 23, 2024.
  23. ^ Jacobson, Louis (June 18, 2024). "2024's Battleground State Legislative Chambers". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved June 19, 2024.
  24. ^ "2022-2023 Election Data". cnalysis. February 29, 2024. Retrieved March 16, 2024.
  25. ^ "24 TX Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com. Retrieved March 16, 2024.
  26. ^ Cheng, Yilun (May 29, 2024). "ER nurse Molly Cook defeats Jarvis Johnson in race for John Whitmire's Texas Senate seat". Houston Chronicle. Retrieved May 29, 2024.
  27. ^ Yañez, Alejandra (December 14, 2022). "LaMantia remains winner after recount for Senate District 27". KVEO-TV. Retrieved February 13, 2024.
  28. ^ Dozier, Dylan (December 2, 2023). "Hinojosa files for rematch". STexasNews.com. Retrieved March 1, 2024.
  29. ^ Montoya, Luis (October 8, 2024). "Lucio endorses Hinojosa in Senate District 27". Rio Grande Guardian. Retrieved October 14, 2024.