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Politics of Oregon

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From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Like many other U.S. states, the politics of Oregon largely concerns regional issues.[1] Oregon leans Democratic as a state, with both U.S. senators from the Democratic party,[2] as well as four out of Oregon's six U.S. Representatives.[3] The Democratic candidate for president has won in Oregon in every election since 1988.[4] Both houses of Oregon's legislative assembly have been under Democratic control since the 2012 elections.[5]

For most of its existence, Oregon was the most consistently Republican west coast state.[6] Between 1860 and 1984, the state voted Democratic just six times, in 1868, 1912, 1932, 1936, 1940, and 1964.

In 1954, the upset of incumbent Republican Senator Guy Cordon by Democrat Richard L. Neuberger, along with Democratic wins in the U.S. House and statewide races and pickups of fourteen and two seats in the state House and Senate, respectively, signaled the beginning of a shift towards the Democratic Party.[6] The last Republican governor of Oregon was Victor G. Atiyeh, who served from 1979 to 1987.[7][8] Since 1988, Oregon voters have consistently favored Democratic candidates for most major elected positions, including the U.S. presidency.

History

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United States presidential election results for Oregon[9]
Year Republican Democratic Third party(ies)
No.  % No.  % No.  %
2024 919,480 40.97% 1,240,600 55.27% 84,413 3.76%
2020 958,448 40.37% 1,340,383 56.45% 75,490 3.18%
2016 782,403 39.09% 1,002,106 50.07% 216,827 10.83%
2012 754,175 42.15% 970,488 54.24% 64,607 3.61%
2008 738,475 40.40% 1,037,291 56.75% 52,098 2.85%
2004 866,831 47.19% 943,163 51.35% 26,788 1.46%
2000 713,577 46.52% 720,342 46.96% 100,049 6.52%
1996 538,152 39.06% 649,641 47.15% 189,967 13.79%
1992 475,757 32.53% 621,314 42.48% 365,572 24.99%
1988 560,126 46.61% 616,206 51.28% 25,362 2.11%
1984 685,700 55.91% 536,479 43.74% 4,348 0.35%
1980 571,044 48.33% 456,890 38.67% 153,582 13.00%
1976 492,120 47.78% 490,407 47.62% 47,349 4.60%
1972 486,686 52.45% 392,760 42.33% 48,500 5.23%
1968 408,433 49.83% 358,866 43.78% 52,323 6.38%
1964 282,779 35.96% 501,017 63.72% 2,509 0.32%
1960 408,060 52.56% 367,402 47.32% 959 0.12%
1956 406,393 55.25% 329,204 44.75% 0 0.00%
1952 420,815 60.54% 270,579 38.93% 3,665 0.53%
1948 260,904 49.78% 243,147 46.40% 20,029 3.82%
1944 225,365 46.94% 248,635 51.78% 6,147 1.28%
1940 219,555 45.62% 258,415 53.70% 3,270 0.68%
1936 122,706 29.64% 266,733 64.42% 24,582 5.94%
1932 136,019 36.88% 213,871 57.99% 18,918 5.13%
1928 205,341 64.18% 109,223 34.14% 5,378 1.68%
1924 142,579 51.01% 67,589 24.18% 69,320 24.80%
1920 143,592 60.20% 80,019 33.55% 14,911 6.25%
1916 126,813 48.47% 120,087 45.90% 14,750 5.64%
1912 34,673 25.30% 47,064 34.34% 55,303 40.36%
1908 62,530 56.39% 38,049 34.31% 10,310 9.30%
1904 60,455 67.06% 17,521 19.43% 12,178 13.51%
1900 46,172 55.46% 32,810 39.41% 4,269 5.13%
1896 48,779 50.07% 46,739 47.98% 1,896 1.95%
1892 35,002 44.59% 14,243 18.15% 29,246 37.26%
1888 33,291 53.82% 26,522 42.88% 2,040 3.30%
1884 26,860 50.99% 24,604 46.70% 1,218 2.31%
1880 20,619 50.51% 19,955 48.88% 249 0.61%
1876 15,214 50.92% 14,157 47.38% 510 1.71%
1872 11,818 58.66% 7,742 38.43% 587 2.91%
1868 10,961 49.63% 11,125 50.37% 0 0.00%
1864 9,888 53.90% 8,457 46.10% 0 0.00%
1860 5,344 36.20% 4,131 27.99% 5,286 35.81%
Gubernatorial election results[10]
Year Democratic Republican
1950 34.0% 171,750 66.0% 334,160
1954 43.1% 244,170 56.9% 322,522
1958 44.7% 267,934 55.3% 331,900
1962 41.6% 265,359 54.2% 345,497
1966 44.7% 305,008 55.3% 377,346
1970 44.2% 293,892 55.6% 369,964
1974 57.7% 444,812 42.1% 324,751
1978 45.1% 409,411 54.9% 498,452
1982 35.9% 374,316 61.4% 639,841
1986 51.9% 549,456 47.9% 506,989
1990 45.7% 508,749 40.0% 444,646
1994 51.0% 622,083 42.4% 517,874
1998 64.4% 717,061 30.0% 334,001
2002 49.0% 618,004 46.2% 581,785
2006 50.7% 699,786 42.8% 589,748
2010 49.3% 716,525 47.8% 694,287
2014 49.9% 733,230 44.1% 648,542
2016 50.6% 985,027 43.4% 845,609
2018 50.1% 934,498 43.7% 814,988
2022 47.0% 917,074 43.5% 850,347

The longest-serving governor in Oregon history is John Kitzhaber, who served two consecutive terms as governor, then left office before returning to win a third term in 2010 ahead of Republican and former Portland Trail Blazer Chris Dudley and the 2014 election against Republican Dennis Richardson. Kitzhaber resigned in February 2015 after allegations of financial impropriety involving his partner and girlfriend, Cylvia Hayes, and certain lobbying efforts.[11][12][13]

The state is broken up into two main geographically separate political areas: the generally liberal cities of the Willamette Valley and the rest of the state, whose voters are typically conservative or right wing.[1][14] While about 47% of the population of Oregon lives in the Portland metropolitan area as of 2013,[15][16] the rest of the state has a rural population with generally conservative views on state taxes. Because of the greater population living in the liberal Willamette Valley cities compared to the rest of Oregon, the state has very liberal laws, including on public health care,[17][18] recreational and medical marijuana,[19] assisted dying,[20] and environmental protections.[21]

In the 2016 presidential election, Democrat Hillary Clinton received 50.07% of the vote, while Republican candidate Donald Trump received 39.09%. Trump performed best in Lake County, winning 77% of the 5,400 registered voters. Hillary Clinton performed best in Multnomah County, where she received 73% of the vote. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson performed best in Gilliam County, where he received 8% of the vote. Columbia and Tillamook counties in the far northwest of Oregon are among 181 pivot counties out of more than 3,000 counties nationwide that Barack Obama carried in 2008 and 2012, but flipped to Donald Trump in 2016 and 2020.[22]

Political geography

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Oregon's politics are largely divided by the Cascade Mountains, with much of western Oregon leaning Democratic and eastern Oregon leaning Republican.[23] The rapidly-growing area around Bend in Central Oregon has created Democratic voter registration majorities in Deschutes County.[24] Republicans have some strongholds in the western part of the state outside of larger cities.[25] Linn County, between the liberal cities of Eugene and Salem, has voted for the Republican presidential candidate in every election since 1980.[26] Southern Oregon is also a Republican stronghold, except in Jackson County, which frequently votes for both Republican and Democratic candidates.

In the 1998 gubernatorial election, the only county won by Republican candidate Bill Sizemore was Malheur County. Because of the concentration of population in Portland and the Willamette Valley, Gov. Kate Brown, a Democrat, won the 2018 election despite carrying only 7 of Oregon's 36 counties.

Based on voting data from the 2012 presidential election, Ontario in Malheur County was rated as the most Republican in the state.[27] Gresham in Multnomah County was rated as the most Democratic.[28]

The last time a Democrat won every county in the state in a presidential election was in 1936, when Franklin D. Roosevelt carried all counties. The last time a Republican accomplished this feat was in 1928, when every county was won by Herbert Hoover. The last time a third-party candidate won any county was in 1912, when Theodore Roosevelt carried Clatsop, Columbia, Jackson, and Washington counties on the Progressive ticket. Independent candidate Ross Perot won 24.7% of the 1992 presidential vote in Oregon, but carried no counties.

Ideology

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Similar to the West Coast states of California and Washington, Oregon has a high percentage of people who identify as liberals. A 2013 Gallup poll that surveyed the political ideology of residents in every state found that people in Oregon identified as:[29]

A 2008 analysis by political statistician Nate Silver on states' political ideology noted that the state's conservatives were the most conservative of any state (more so than Utah or Tennessee) and that the state's liberals were more liberal than any state (more so than Vermont or D.C.).[30]

Political parties

[edit]
Main article: List of political parties in Oregon
Party registration by county (October 2018):
  •   Democrat >= 30%
  •   Democrat >= 40%
  •   Democrat >= 50%
  •   Republican >= 30%
  •   Republican >= 40%
  •   Republican >= 50%
  •   Unaffiliated >= 30%

According to the state's election agency, as of September 2022, there were 2,995,364 registered voters in Oregon.

Party registration as of May 2024[31]
Party Number of voters Percentage
Non-affiliated 1,111,398 36.56%
Democratic 998,171 32.83%
Republican 725,407 23.86%
Independent 143,868 4.73%
Libertarian 20,409 0.67%
Minor parties 40,622 1.34%
Total 3,039,926 100%

Federal representation

[edit]
Main article: Oregon's congressional districts

Oregon currently has six House districts. In the 118th Congress, four of Oregon's seats are held by Democrats and two are held by Republicans:

Oregon's two United States senators are Democrats Ron Wyden and Jeff Merkley, serving since 1996 and 2009, respectively.

Oregon is part of the United States District Court for the District of Oregon in the federal judiciary. The district's cases are appealed to the San Francisco-based United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit.

See also

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References

[edit]
  1. ^ a b Cohen, Micah (August 16, 2012). "Oregon, Sitting at the Border of Safe and In Play". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 6, 2014.
  2. ^ "Oregon's United States Senators". Oregon Blue Book. Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved July 31, 2014.
  3. ^ "Oregon's United States Representatives". Oregon Blue Book. Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved July 31, 2014.
  4. ^ "Votes Cast in Oregon for U.S. President 1860-2016" (PDF). Oregon Blue Book. Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved July 31, 2014.
  5. ^ "2012 Election Results: Oregon Legislature". OregonLive.com. Retrieved November 7, 2012.
  6. ^ a b Swarthout, John M. (December 1954). "The 1954 Election in Oregon". The Western Political Quarterly. 7 (4): 620–625. doi:10.2307/442815. JSTOR 442815.
  7. ^ "Governor Victor G. Atiyeh's Administration: Biographical Note". Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved July 31, 2014.
  8. ^ Turner, Wallace (May 18, 1982). "Oregon's Governor Leading 6 in Polls". The New York Times. Retrieved July 31, 2014.
  9. ^ Leip, David. "Presidential General Election Results Comparison – Oregon". US Election Atlas. Retrieved October 29, 2022.
  10. ^ Leip, David. "General Election Results—Oregon". United States Election Atlas. Archived from the original on July 9, 2018. Retrieved November 18, 2016.
  11. ^ "Governor's Records Guides - Governor John Kitzhaber". Oregon State Archives. Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved July 31, 2014.
  12. ^ Kaplan, Thomas (August 2, 2010). "Candidate's Platform: Jobs. Experience: N.B.A." The New York Times. Retrieved July 31, 2010.
  13. ^ Nakamura, Beth. "Governor John Kitzhaber announces his resignation". The Oregonian. Retrieved February 13, 2015.
  14. ^ Yardley, William (May 19, 2008). "A Shift in Voters, but Oregon Still Embraces the Unconventional". The New York Times. Retrieved July 27, 2014.
  15. ^ "State & County QuickFacts: Oregon". U.S. Census Bureau. Archived from the original on February 24, 2016. Retrieved July 27, 2014.
  16. ^ "Update of Statistical Area Definitions and Guidance on Their Uses" (PDF). Office of Management and Budget. November 20, 2007. p. 45. Retrieved July 27, 2014 – via National Archives.
  17. ^ "Oregon Health Plan". State of Oregon. Retrieved July 31, 2014.
  18. ^ Vekshin, Alison (May 19, 2014). "Doctor-Governor Kitzhaber Imperiled by Oregon Insurance Failure". Bloomberg Businessweek. Archived from the original on August 8, 2014. Retrieved July 31, 2014.
  19. ^ "Oregon Medical Marijuana Program (OMMP)". Oregon Health Authority. State of Oregon. Retrieved July 31, 2014.
  20. ^ Oregon Death with Dignity Act
  21. ^ McCaulou, Lily Raff (December 10, 2012). "Oregon's political divide". The Bulletin. Bend, Oregon. Retrieved July 27, 2014.
  22. ^ Bureau, Gary A. Warner Oregon Capital. "Voting surges as campaigns head to finish line". www.mailtribune.com. Retrieved 2021-12-23. {{cite web}}: |last= has generic name (help)
  23. ^ Cohen, Micah (August 16, 2012). "Oregon, Sitting at the Border of Safe and In Play". FiveThirtyEight. The New York Times. Retrieved January 3, 2016. Oregon, like Wisconsin, is an ideologically polarized state. The Cascade Mountains are a convenient dividing line, politically and geographically.
  24. ^ Bureau, Gary A. Warner Oregon Capital. "Big turnout, big spending as election finish line looms". The Bulletin. Retrieved 2020-10-30. {{cite web}}: |last= has generic name (help)
  25. ^ "Oregon Election Results 2016: President Live Map by County, Real-Time Voting Updates". Election Hub. Retrieved 2020-10-30.
  26. ^ Presidential Election of 1976 by County
  27. ^ White, Carrie (June 14, 2016). "These Are The 10 Most Conservative Cities In Oregon". RoadSnacks. Retrieved January 7, 2017.
  28. ^ White, Carrie (June 14, 2016). "These Are The 10 Most Liberal Cities In Oregon". RoadSnacks. Retrieved January 7, 2017.
  29. ^ Swift, Art (January 31, 2014). "Wyoming Residents Most Conservative, D.C. Most Liberal". Gallup. Retrieved July 31, 2014.
  30. ^ Silver, Nate (May 17, 2008). "Oregon: Swing State or latte-drinking, Prius-driving lesbian commune?". FiveThirtyEight.com. Retrieved February 24, 2010.
  31. ^ "Oregon Voter Registration Statistics". sos.oregon.gov. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
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