Proyecto de Inversion Hotel Ecologico 99
Proyecto de Inversion Hotel Ecologico 99
Proyecto de Inversion Hotel Ecologico 99
INTRODUCCIN
CAPTULO 2
OBJETIVOS
3. Determinar la inversin inicial total del proyecto, los costos totales de operacin del
proyecto, as como los flujos netos de efectivo a lo largo de un periodo de 20 aos,
as como la Tasa de Rentabilidad de los Inversionistas.
CAPTULO 3
LA ENERGA RENOVABLE Y EL CAMBIO CLIMTICO
Figura 1 Hotel
(Publiconce) (Ofertas para viajar, 2008)
Inundaciones
Sequas
40
Nmero de eventos
35
34
31
30
25
20
22
18
15
15
10
12
8
1
16
12
12 15
5
0
23
21
18
31
4
1
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Figura 5
Impacto de la Industria de la Construccin (Construccin_Sostenible, 2009)
10
agua pretratada hacia una jardinera impermeable, donde se siembran plantas de pantano, las
cuales se nutren de los detergentes y la materia orgnica, evaporan el agua y as la
purifican, con lo que se puede llegar a rescatar hasta un 70% del agua, que a su vez puede
ser utilizada para irrigacin. El sistema de "acolchado" consiste en dirigir el agua gris hacia
zanjas rellenas de un acolchado, compuesto normalmente de corteza de rbol triturada, paja
u hojas, que se encarga de tratar las aguas y de paso aumentar la riqueza del suelo al seguir
un proceso de compostaje.
Ingreso
desde
Cocina
Registro con
Canastilla
para Slidos
Ingreso desde
Regaderas y
Lavamanos
Registro
Mezclador
Trampa de Grasas y
Fermentador
Agua tratada
hacia pozo de
absorcin o riego
11
Figura 8
Esquema del tratamiento y reuso domiciliario de aguas grises (GROUP, 2008)
Los beneficios de la reutilizacin de las aguas grises incluyen un menor uso del agua
potable, un menor caudal a las fosas spticas o plantas de tratamiento, una purificacin
altamente efectiva, una solucin para aquellos lugares en donde no puede utilizarse otro
tipo de tratamiento, un menor uso de energa y qumicas por bombeo y tratamiento, la
posibilidad de sembrar plantas donde no hay otro tipo de agua, o la recuperacin de
nutrientes que se pierden.
13
15
Pas
rea de colectores
solares
instalados en 1998
(m2)
Alemania
470,000
Austria
Grecia
Francia
Holanda
Espaa
Italia
Dinamarca
Portugal
Mxico
195,000
153,900
28,000
26,640
19,440
18,000
17,000
8,000
32,400
rea de
colectores
solares
instalados por
cada 1,000
habitantes (m2)
35
240
260
14
15
11
5
60
25
0.33
16
Fotovoltaica
La tecnologa relacionada con la generacin de electricidad por procesos fotovoltaicos
ha tenido grandes avances. Su costo unitario de potencia se ha reducido ms de 20 veces
desde 1973, al pasar de 200 a 10 dlares por watt. Esto ha permitido que el uso de esta
tecnologa se haya generalizado y que se tengan expectativas de mayores reducciones en su
precio, lo que la coloca en el umbral de aplicaciones masivas.
Tabla 2 Costos estimados a futuro para la generacin elctrica con base en energas
renovables (Mier, 2003)
(en USD)
17
Tabla 3
Capacidad elctrica instalada en celdas fotovoltaicas (en MW) para pases varios
PAIS
Capacidad
instalada en el
final de 1998
Capacidad
instalada en el
final de 1999
Alemania
Italia
Francia
Holanda
Espaa
Austria
Resto de la CEU
Total CEU
EEUU
Japn
Mxico
53.9
17.68
8
6.48
8
2.86
6.54
103.46
127.9
133.3
12
66.2
18.5
10
9.5
9
3.46
7.42
123.58
147
190
12.9
18
de reflejar hasta un 80% de la radiacin solar que a ellas llega. El resto llega a la superficie,
ya sea de manera directa o indirectamente como reflejo de las nubes y partculas en la
atmsfera.
La radiacin solar que llega a la superficie terrestre se puede transformar directamente
en electricidad o calor. El calor, a su vez, puede ser utilizado directamente como calor o
para producir vapor y generar electricidad.
Sistemas fotovoltaicos
Las celdas fotovoltaicas son placas fabricadas principalmente de silicio. Cuando al
silicio se le aaden cantidades relativamente pequeas de ciertos materiales con
caractersticas muy particulares, obtiene propiedades elctricas nicas en presencia de luz
solar: los electrones son excitados por los fotones asociados a la luz y se mueven a travs
del silicio produciendo una corriente elctrica; este efecto es conocido como fotovoltaico.
La eficiencia de conversin de estos sistemas es de alrededor de 15% y considerando una
radiacin solar de 1000 W/m2 en un da despejado, resultara que un metro cuadrado se
puede proveer 150 Watts, potencia suficiente para operar un televisor mediano. Las celdas
fotovoltaicas, para poder proveer de energa elctrica en las noches, requieren de bateras
donde se acumula la energa elctrica generada durante el da, lo cual encarece su
aplicacin. Sin embargo, en la actualidad se estn desarrollando sistemas fotovoltaicos
conectados directamente a la red elctrica, evitando as el uso de bateras, por lo que la
energa que generan se usa de inmediato por el propio usuario que la genera, con la
posibilidad de vender los excedentes de electricidad a las compaas generadoras.
19
Figura 10
Sistemas Fotovolticos (Gerosol, 2009)
enfriamiento rpido. En este caso, el proceso solar llevara asociado una reduccin
potencial de las emisiones de CO2 y la minimizacin del coste energtico que conlleva el
proceso clsico de obtencin. Respecto al tratamiento de materiales en el Horno Solar de la
PSA, es de inters sealar que se han logrado alcanzar y mantener los 2.000C en atmsfera
controlada para el sinterizado de materiales cermicos. (Moya, 2009)
21
millones de m2 de rea de coleccin de radiacin solar (un rea de 14.2 Km por lado) se
podra dar electricidad a todos los hogares mexicanos.
Esto no significa, sin embargo, que la energa solar directa sea la ms econmica para
el universo de usuarios de energa en el pas, ya que su costo actual slo lo justifica para un
nmero limitado de usuarios, particularmente los que viven alejados de la red elctrica.
Figura 12 Energa Solar para crear energa elctrica (panelsolar, 2009) (Cogasa, 2009)
Figura 13
Energa Solar para Calentar Agua (Textoscientficos.com, 2009)
25
Municipios
Generar electricidad para usos mltiples (minihidrulica, elica, fotoceldas
biomasa)
Destilacin de agua en regiones aisladas junto al mar (destiladores solares)
Comunicaciones y transporte
Sealizacin de carreteras (fotoceldas)
Aplicaciones de sealizacin con boyas en el mar (fotoceldas)
Sistemas de telecomunicacin, tales como: estaciones repetidoras, microondas,
telefona aislada, sistemas de redes, sistemas porttiles de comunicacin, etc.
(fotoceldas)
Utilizacin de biocombustibles a base de alcohol para el transporte (biomasa)
Utilizacin de pequeos vehculos solares o hbridos (fotoceldas)
Agricultura, ganadera y pesca
Bombeo de agua para riego (elica, fotoceldas)
Secado de granos, hierbas, pescado y, en general, productos perecederos
(calentadores solares)
Sistemas de desalinizacin y purificacin de agua (calentadores solares)
Precalentamiento de agua y otros fluidos (calentadores solares)
Refrigeracin solar para enfriamiento y produccin de hielo (refrigeracin solar)
26
CAPTULO 4
ESTUDIO DE MERCADO
Figura 15
Curva de Demanda
Figura 16
Desplazamiento de la curva de Demanda
28
Tabla 4
Turistas en la Ciudad de Puerto Escondido
AO
TOTAL
NACIONALES
EXTRANJEROS
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
125,278
104,944
83.77%
20,334
149,491
123,108
82.35%
26,383
166,902
137,181
82.19%
29,721
192,207
164,955
85.82%
27,252
198,924
172,540
86.74%
26,384
180,536
157,445
87.21%
23,091
181,685
155,969
85.85%
25,716
187,934
160,002
85.14%
27,932
199,980
177,963
88.99%
22,017
208,739
189,241
90.66%
19,498
239,572
216,468
90.36%
23,104
221,914
202,231
91.13%
19,683
239,532
224,322
93.65%
15,210
257,149
247,295
96.17%
9,854
Promedio
87.86%
16.23%
17.65%
17.81%
14.18%
13.26%
12.79%
14.15%
14.86%
11.01%
9.34%
9.64%
8.87%
6.35%
3.83%
12.14%
De la Tabla 4 se puede deducir que el turismo esperado ser nacional, es por eso que se
necesita evaluar el ingreso familiar por nivel socioeconmico en el pas, el cual se estima
de $0.00 a $2,699 para nivel E; de $2,700 a $6,790 para nivel D; de $ 6,800 a $11,599 para
29
nivel D+; de $11,600 a 34,999 para nivel C, de $35,000 a $84,999 para nivel C+ y de
$85,000 o ms para nivel A/B (Sigmarket, 2009).
En la Tabla 4 se puede observar que existe un decremento importante en el turismo
internacional, por lo que se necesitar plantear medidas importantes con el sector turismo
federal y del estado para tratar de fomentar el gusto por la regin.
De lo anterior se basar como demanda efectiva a los niveles socioeconmicos A/B,
C+ y C, mismos que contarn con mayor posibilidad de realizar viajes vacacionales,
mismos que representaban en el 2007 el 31.8% de la poblacin del Pas (ver Tabla 5)
Tabla 5 Nivel Socioeconmico
30
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
TOTAL
CINCO
CUATRO
TRES
DOS
UNA
HOTELES
ESTRELLAS
ESTRELLAS
ESTRELLAS
ESTRELLAS
ESTRELLA
70
71
72
69
80
84
92
101
110
119
116
121
146
146
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
5
5
5
5
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
8
9
10
5
6
6
6
6
13
15
17
20
21
20
21
21
22
19
22
22
22
23
15
15
15
19
19
20
21
23
24
22
13
13
12
13
7
7
8
9
9
10
10
8
10
OTROS
19
25
26
24
32
43
49
55
56
64
60
61
84
79
31
Tabla 7
Cuartos disponibles en Puerto Escondido
AO
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
TOTAL
CINCO
CUATRO
TRES
DOS
UNA
CUARTOS
ESTRELLAS
ESTRELLAS
ESTRELLAS
ESTRELLAS
ESTRELLA
1,556
1,564
1,829
1,601
1,761
1,920
2,081
2,184
2,397
2,510
2,684
2,807
3,161
3,153
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
49
49
380
384
384
384
442
394
402
402
402
402
409
476
502
509
124
137
147
147
147
327
380
414
520
565
574
546
544
542
422
476
690
482
509
338
332
340
425
394
447
486
557
575
338
217
229
223
237
169
194
204
224
230
255
255
197
251
OTROS
292
350
379
365
426
692
773
824
826
919
999
1,044
1,312
1,227
32
Tabla 8
Visitantes en Puerto Escondido
AO
TOTAL
% DE
CRECIMIENTO
CINCO
CUATRO
TRES
DOS
UNA
ESTRELLAS
ESTRELLAS
ESTRELLAS
ESTRELLAS
ESTRELLA
OTROS
1994
125,278.00
1995
149,491.00
19.33%
56,064.00
20,002.00
44,136.00
29,289.00
1996
166,902.00
11.65%
63,423.00
21,697.00
50,070.00
31,712.00
1997
192,207.00
15.16%
73,039.00
24,987.00
57,662.00
36,519.00
1998
198,924.00
3.49%
34,116.00
19,544.00
87,071.00
58,193.00
1999
180,536.00
-9.24%
25,238.00
54,970.00
60,140.00
40,188.00
2000
181,685.00
0.64%
30,437.00
59,471.00
54,886.00
36,891.00
2001
187,934.00
3.44%
32,969.00
61,088.00
57,054.00
36,823.00
2002
199,980.00
6.41%
31,962.00
69,557.00
55,967.00
42,494.00
2003
208,739.00
4.38%
34,397.00
89,112.00
40,445.00
44,785.00
2004
239,572.00
14.77%
51,060.00
94,498.00
46,922.00
47,092.00
2005
221,914.00
-7.37%
39,249.00
79,294.00
52,822.00
50,549.00
2006
239,532.00
7.94%
394.00
34,383.00
81,970.00
93,437.00
55,767.00
233,631.00
2007
257,149.00
7.35%
1,229.00
35,082.00
65,819.00
105,577.00
49,442.00
Promedio
6.00%
33
En la Tabla 9 se puede observar que existe una gran cantidad de visitantes por el
nmero de cuartos existentes en Puerto Escondido. Esta Tabla es la base para realizar la
grfica de correlacin, misma que servir para obtener la ecuacin de regresin, con la cual
se podr calcular la proyeccin de la demanda para los aos de estudio.
Tabla 9
Visitantes Vs Cuartos
AO
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
VISITANTES CUARTOS
125278
149491
166902
192207
198924
180536
181685
187934
199980
208739
239572
221914
239532
257149
1556
1564
1829
1601
1761
1920
2081
2184
2397
2510
2684
2807
3161
3153
34
y = 0,0139x - 493,24
R = 0,7818
3500
3000
Cuartos
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Visitantes
Figura 17
Visitantes Vs Cuartos
En la Figura 17 se puede observar que existe una correlacin importante entre el
nmero de cuartos disponibles y el nmero de visitantes en la ciudad de Puerto Escondido,
por lo que se considera factible continuar con el estudio, as mismo esta ecuacin nos
ayudar para ver de que manera se ha venido comportando la actividad turstica en la
ciudad y poder proyectar como se podra comportar en un futuro.
35
Tabla 10
Obtencin del Coeficiente de Determinacin
Ao
Yi
Yest
Cuartos
Cuartos
Visitantes
(Xi-Xmed)^2
(Yi-Ymed)^2
(Yest-Ymed)^2
(Yi-Yest)^2
1994
125,278.00
1,556
1,248.1242
5,060,808,135
453,121.3061
962,397.6057
94,787.5082
1995
149,491.00
1,564
1,584.6849
2,202,082,995
442,415.0204
415,326.0585
427.8651
1996
166,902.00
1,829
1,826.6978
871,156,307
160,114.3061
161,962.0240
5.3001
1997
192,207.00
1,601
2,178.4373
17,727,107
394,563.4490
2,571.0535
333,433.8354
1998
198,924.00
1,761
2,271.8036
6,283,258
219,157.7347
1,819.9390
260,920.3178
1999
180,536.00
1,920
2,016.2104
252,217,505
95,569.3061
45,340.2313
9,256.4411
2000
181,685.00
2,081
2,032.1815
217,042,347
21,946.3061
38,793.7762
2,383.2459
2001
187,934.00
2,184
2,119.0426
71,967,348
2,037.8776
12,122.0666
4,219.4638
2002
199,980.00
2,397
2,286.4820
12,692,424
28,176.0204
3,287.7773
12,214.2283
2003
208,739.00
2,510
2,408.2321
151,822,883
78,880.7347
32,072.9569
10,356.7055
2004
239,572.00
2,684
2,836.8108
1,862,323,200
206,895.0204
369,260.3288
23,351.1406
2005
221,914.00
2,807
2,591.3646
650,078,797
333,918.8776
131,204.5910
46,498.6257
2006
239,532.00
3,161
2,836.2548
1,858,872,429
868,357.7347
368,584.9112
105,459.4449
2007
257,149.00
3,153
3,081.1311
3,688,332,444
853,512.0204
725,883.9660
5,165.1388
Xmedia
Ymedia
Suma
Suma
Suma
Suma
196,417
2,229
16,923,407,179.2143
4,158,665.7143
3,270,627.2860
908,479.2613
STC
SCR
SCE
y = 0.0139x - 493.24
Coeficiente de determinacin
R^2=SCR / STC
0.7865
37
Tabla 11
Proyeccin de la Demanda e Intervalos de Confianza
AO
VISITANTES CUARTOS
2007
257,149.00
3,153
Confianza
S=
2015
95%
275.1483
2008
272,577.94
3,296
Xp
409,856
2009
288,932.62
3,523
Yp
4,881
548,480
6,699
2010
306,268.57
3,764
Syp=
456.9926
748.0162
1663.5909
2011
324,644.69
4,019
grados de libertad
2012
344,123.37
4,290
t.025
2013
364,770.77
4,577
t*Syp
2014
386,657.02
4,881
y^p max
2015
409,856.44
5,204
y^p min
12
2.179
995.7869
5877.0795
3885.5056
12
2.179
1629.9273
8329.0242
5069.1696
12
2.179
3624.9647
16012.1047
8762.1753
2016
434,447.82
5,546
2017
460,514.69
5,908
Ancho
1991.5739
3259.8546
7249.9293
2018
488,145.58
6,292
2019
517,434.31
6,699
2020
548,480.37
7,131
2021
581,389.19
7,588
2022
616,272.54
8,073
2023
653,248.90
8,587
2024
692,443.83
9,132
2025
733,990.46
9,709
2026
778,029.89
10,321
2027
824,711.68
10,970
2028
874,194.38
11,658
2029
926,646.04
12,387
2030
982,244.81
13,160
2020
95%
275.1483
2030
95%
275.1483
982,245
12,387
visitantes,
los
38
Figura 18
Curva de la Oferta
39
Figura 19
Desplazamiento de la Oferta
40
Tabla 12
Oferta Hotelera a travs del Tiempo
AO
HOTELES
CUARTOS
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
70
1,556
1,564
1,829
1,601
1,761
1,920
2,081
2,184
2,397
2,510
2,684
2,807
3,161
3,153
71
72
69
80
84
92
101
110
119
116
121
146
146
INCREMENTO ANUAL
8
265
-228
0.51%
16.94%
-12.47%
160
159
161
103
213
113
174
123
354
-8
9.99%
9.03%
8.39%
4.95%
9.75%
4.71%
6.93%
4.58%
12.61%
-0.25%
Promedio
5.82%
INCREMENTO
ANUAL
ACUMULADO
8
273
45
205
364
525
628
841
954
1,128
1,251
1,605
1,597
41
Tabla 13
Proyeccin de la Oferta
AO
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
184
194
205
217
230
243
258
273
289
305
323
342
362
383
405
429
454
480
508
538
569
602
637
5.82%
5.82%
5.82%
5.82%
5.82%
5.82%
5.82%
5.82%
5.82%
5.82%
5.82%
5.82%
5.82%
5.82%
5.82%
5.82%
5.82%
5.82%
5.82%
5.82%
5.82%
5.82%
5.82%
INCREMENTO
ANUAL
ACUMULADO
184
378
583
801
1,031
1,274
1,532
1,805
2,093
2,398
2,721
3,063
3,425
3,808
4,213
4,642
5,096
5,576
6,084
6,621
7,190
7,792
8,429
Habr que tener en cuenta que el porcentaje de 5.82%, an cuando sea resultado de
datos ya conocidos pudiera variar, resultando perjudicable si se redujera y favorable si se
dieran las condiciones necesarias para el crecimiento del turismo en la zona.
42
AO
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
OFERTA
DEMANDA
POTENCIAL POTENCIAL
3,337
3,531
3,736
3,954
4,184
4,427
4,685
4,958
5,246
5,551
5,874
6,216
6,578
6,961
7,366
7,795
8,249
8,729
9,237
9,774
10,343
10,945
11,582
3,296
3,523
3,764
4,019
4,290
4,577
4,881
5,204
5,546
5,908
6,292
6,699
7,131
7,588
8,073
8,587
9,132
9,709
10,321
10,970
11,658
12,387
13,160
DEMANDA
MENOS
OFERTA
DEMANDA
MENOS OFERTA
ACUMULADA
-41
-8
28
66
106
150
196
246
300
357
418
483
552
627
707
792
883
981
1,085
1,196
1,315
1,442
1,578
-41
-49
-21
45
151
301
497
744
1,043
1,400
1,817
2,300
2,852
3,479
4,186
4,978
5,861
6,842
7,927
9,123
10,438
11,880
12,016
Es importante ver que para el ao 2030, horizonte del proyecto, se tiene un dficit de
12,016 cuartos al ao, lo que representa una gran oportunidad para el proyecto del hotel
Paradis, bajo los supuestos que se hicieron, decidiendo continuar con el Estudio de
Factibilidad.
43
CAPTULO 5
ESTUDIO TCNICO
En el estudio tcnico se analizan elementos que tienen que ver con la ingeniera bsica
del producto y/o proceso que se desea implementar, para ello se tiene que hacer la
descripcin detallada del mismo con la finalidad de mostrar todos los requerimientos para
hacerlo funcionable. De ah la importancia de analizar el tamao ptimo de la planta el cual
debe justificar la produccin y el nmero de consumidores que se tendr para no arriesgar a
la empresa en la creacin de una estructura que no est soportada por la demanda.
Finalmente con cada uno de los elementos que conforman el estudio tcnico se elabora
un anlisis de la inversin para posteriormente conocer la viabilidad econmica del mismo.
5.1. LOCALIZACIN
Se eligi para la construccin del hotel la ciudad de Puerto Escondido Oaxaca, lugar de
playas paradisacas. Se encuentra en la costa del estado de Oaxaca, 249 km al sur de la
capital del estado. Su clima es clido sub-hmedo, con lluvias en verano y temperatura
media anual de 28 C. Entre sus muchos atractivos, este destino ofrece un notable conjunto
de playas con aguas color azul verdoso y finas arenas enmarcadas por exuberante
vegetacin, ideales para la prctica de gran variedad de actividades acuticas.
Entre las playas, destaca Zicaleta, sede de un torneo internacional de surf y la Playa
Principal donde se realiza un importante evento de pesca deportiva en el mes de noviembre.
En sus alrededores se encuentran reas naturales como el Parque Nacional Lagunas de
Chacahua, un conjunto lagunar que alberga gran diversidad de flora como manglares, sitios
44
45
46
Figura 21
Ubicacin Hotel Paradis (Google, 2009)
47
Figura 22
Playa Zicatela (Altamirano, 2008)
48
49
50
Figura 23
Distribucin de Planta
51
52
53
LOBBY
ESTACIONAMIENTO
DUCHAS
AREA
TOTAL
= 175.7048 mts 2
PISCINA
PISCINA
NIOS
BAR
BODEGA
BASURA
ADMON.
RESTAURANTE
COCINA
CENTRO DE LAVADO
Cantidad
4
Concepto
Freidor
Herramienta y Equipo para
Mantenimiento Menor
Cantidad
1
Automvil
Cmara de Refrigeracin
Camioneta para Compras
1
1
Centros de Lavado
Sistema Hidroneumtico y
Calentador para Alberca
1
2
Tarja Industrial
Transformador
1
1
Conmutador y Telfonos
Jardinera
Mesa de trabajo para Cocina
Mini Split's
1
3
1
40
Tabla 16
Mobiliario
Concepto
Barra de Bar con
Periqueras
Closet's
Colchones Individuales
Colchones Matrimoniales
Cmoda para Cuartos y
Espejo
Computadoras
Cantidad
1
33
38
17
33
4
Concepto
Sala para Lobby
Sillas para rea de Alberca
T.V. 20"
T.V. 42" para Lobby
Tablas y Equipo de Surf
Toallas para Cuarto y Zona
de Alberca
1
20
33
1
15
198
Juegos de Sbanas
Individuales
100
Juegos de Sbanas
Matrimoniales
50
Cambiadores de Bebes
Carro de Herramientas
16
Carros Camarista
33
Carros de Limpieza
Servibar
35
15
Mingitorios
Mobiliario para la
Administracin
Mobiliario para Lobby
Muebles para Bao
WC
Cantidad
45
40
55
56
57
Figura 25
Estructura Organizacional
CAPTULO 6
ESTUDIO ECONMICO
2200
$
$
$
1,200.00
2,640,000.00
105,600.00
m2
$/m2
$ 2,745,600.00
58
Tabla 18
Valor de la Construccin
rea en
m2
Cantidad
Administracin
14.88
Alberca
175.70
rea de
Asoleamiento
420
Baos rea
Asolamiento
6.14
Baos Cocina
4.4
Baos Cuarto de
Mquinas y
Lavandera
4.4
Baos Lobby
5.28
Baos
Restaurante
18.32
Basura
6.3
Bodega de
Refrigeracin
8.98
Cocina
24.35
Cuarto de
Mquinas y
Lavandera
47.65
Cuartos
32.76
33
4.2
8.65
8.65
Lobby
61.67
Montacargas
5.89
Restaurante/Bar
204.17
Estacionamiento
297.5
Descripcin
Elevador Cuartos
Escaleras 2
niveles
Escaleras 3
Niveles
Subtotal
14.88
175.70
420.00
6.14
4.40
8.80
5.28
18.32
Total de m2
Construidos
*$/m2
Costo de Construccin
Instalaciones
Subtotal Construccin
Imprevistos 1%
2,468.91
$8,540.44
$21,085,577.72
$2,108,557.77
$23,194,135.49
$231,941.35
$2,319,413.55
Total de Construccin
$25,745,490.39
6.30
8.98
24.35
95.30
1,081.08
4.20
8.65
17.30
61.67
5.89
204.17
297.50
Elaboracin Propia
59
Tabla 19
Valor del Equipamiento
Concepto
Cantidad
P.U.
IMPORTE
FUENTE
Aspiradoras
5,805.00 $
Automvil
120,500.00 $
241,000.00 http://www.chevyc2s.com.mx
Cmara de Refrigeracin
151,854.89 $
151,854.89 http://www.grupoaislacon.com.mx
205,450.00 $
205,450.00 http://www.chevyc2s.com.mx
303,347.00 $
303,347.00 http://mx.volkswagen.com
Centros de Lavado
74,250.00 $
148,500.00 http://www.quebarato.com
Conmutador y Telfonos
20,000.00 $
20,000.00 http://www1.la.dell.com
10,828.00 $
10,828.00 http://www.sillasymesas.com.mx
470,581.91 $
470,581.91 http://www.construmatica.com
500,663.65 $
500,663.65 http://www.construmatica.com
5,000.00 $
17,550.00 $
17,550.00 http://www.san-son.com/indexPromos.html
Fabrica de Hielos
14,850.00 $
29,700.00
Freidor
11,300.00 $
11,300.00 http://www.san-son.com/indexPromos.html
5,000.00 $
5,000.00 http://www.blancolor.com.mx
Jardinera
2,000.00 $
6,000.00 http://listado.mercadolibre.com.mx
15,262.50 $
Mini Split's
40
7,500.00 $
180,360.00 $
16,875.00 $
16,875.00 http://www.geeaguasresiduales.com
162,000.00 $
162,000.00 http://www.geeaguasresiduales.com
207,000.00 $
207,000.00 http://store.creasa.net
50,000.00 $
57,766.50 $
Tarja Industrial
6,000.00 $
Transformador
143,127.00 $
Planta de Emergencia de
Energa Elctrica
23,220.00 http://www.piisa.com.mx
15,000.00 http://www.servibar.net
http://www.san-son.com/indexPromos.html
15,262.50 http://www.san-son.com/indexPromos.html
300,000.00
180,360.00 http://www.imem.com.mx/
50,000.00 http://www.hidroneumaticos.com.mx/
Servicio
Sistema Solar para Calentar
Agua de Baos y Cocina,
173,299.50 http://www.cryplant.com
TOTAL
6,000.00 http://www.san-son.com/indexPromos.html
143,127.00 http://www.imem.com.mx/
$ 3,413,919.45
Elaboracin Propia
60
Tabla 20
Valor de Mobiliario
Concepto
Cantidad
P.U.
$ 25,000.00
25,000.00 http://www.servibar.net
Closet's
33
6,589.00
217,437.00 http://www.moblibar.com
Colchones Individuales
38
3,188.00
121,144.00 http://www.supercolchones.com.mx
Colchones Matrimoniales
17
3,835.00
65,195.00 http://www.supercolchones.com.mx
33
5,990.00
197,670.00 http://www.moblibar.com
Computadoras
6,500.00
26,000.00 http://www1.la.dell.com
Juegos de Sbanas
Individuales
100
633.10
63,310.00 http://www.blancolor.com.mx
Juegos de Sbanas
Matrimoniales
50
765.83
38,291.50 http://www.blancolor.com.mx
2,281.50
13,689.00 http://www.blancolor.com.mx
16
6,483.00
103,728.00 http://sillasymesas.com.mx
33
6,752.00
222,816.00 http://www.servibar.net
Mingitorios
1,500.00
4,500.00 http://www.hygolet.com.mx
Mobiliario para la
Administracin
5,000.00
5,000.00 http://www.officemax.com.mx
8,000.00
8,000.00 http://www.mueblesparaoficina.com
40
5,000.00
8,000.00
20
2,281.50
T.V. 20"
33
3,500.00
115,500.00 http://www.elektra.com.mx
$ 10,000.00
10,000.00 http://www.elektra.com.mx
15
3,000.00
45,000.00 www.billabong.com
198
38.90
WC
45
3,700.00
Cambiadores de Bebes
4,100.00
Carro de Herramientas
9,038.00
9,038.00 http://www.sillasymesas.com.mx
Carros Camarista
$ 10,802.00
43,208.00 http://www.sillasymesas.com.mx
Carros de Limpieza
1,282.00
7,692.00 http://www.sillasymesas.com.mx
Servibar
35
2,500.00
87,500.00 http://listado.mercadolibre.com.mx
990.00
4,950.00 http://www.sillasymesas.com.mx
15
2,091.00
31,365.00 http://www.sillasymesas.com.mx
TOTAL
IMPORTE
200,000.00 http://www.hygolet.com.mx
8,000.00 http://www.hermanosvazquez.com.mx
45,630.00 http://www.blancolor.com.mx
7,702.20 http://www.blancolor.com.mx
166,500.00 http://www.hygolet.com.mx
32,800.00 http://www.sillasymesas.com.mx
$ 1,742,912.70
Elaboracin Propia
61
Tabla 21
Resumen de Presupuesto de Inversin
Terreno
Construccin
Mobiliario
Equipamiento
$
$
$
$
2,745,600.00
25,745,490.39
1,742,912.70
3,413,919.45
772,364.71
Total
33,647,922.54
Elaboracin Propia
http://reforma.hotelesmexico.com/oaxaca/puerto-escondido/
62
Conceptos
A
B
C
D
Habitaciones
Alimentos
Bebidas
Otros AyB
Cover Centro Nocturno
Descorche
Pizzas
Renta de Equipo
Mquinas Expendedoras
Botellas de Agua
E Otros
Telefona
Lavandera
Intereses Ganados
Renta de Video
Descuentos por Pronto Pago
Ventas Varias (miscelneos)
Total de Ingresos
Ingreso
Cuarto/Da
Paradis
$1,100.00
$312.77
$96.79
$33.52
67.28%
19.13%
5.92%
2.05%
$91.88
5.62%
$1,634.96
100.00%
Fuente: Elaboracin Propia con la ayuda del Mto. Carlos Lucio Magni Escriba
63
64
65
2.09
das
36.14
1.65
28.44
1.51
29.01
1.79
29.10
1.81
32.99
2.15
32.99
2.09
31.60
2.43
43.29
Promedio
Promedio de
Promedios
1.86
1.71
1.51
1.66
1.58
1.58
1.73
1.78
1.60
1.48
1.51
1.80
6%
Crecimiento
38.31%
Para Proyecto
2007
34.54
35.71
26.95
44.74
23.17
17.08
40.09
26.39
14.01
14.22
27.65
36.69
1.41
1.35
1.43
1.39
1.37
1.48
1.62
1.41
1.45
1.59
1.57
1.99
2006
39.64
34.94
31.68
51.79
24.11
15.09
38.76
26.19
15.43
13.25
23.47
33.72
1.85
1.99
1.76
1.71
1.64
1.85
1.85
1.92
1.81
1.64
1.65
1.87
2005
33.71
36.63
48.13
20.75
24.49
14.83
42.72
25.19
18.55
17.15
28.46
38.61
2.12
1.95
1.86
1.91
1.78
1.68
1.92
1.69
1.71
1.60
1.63
1.88
2004
39.05
40.19
30.70
46.99
28.11
18.72
57.31
30.10
18.44
18.86
25.87
41.53
2.78
2.86
2.44
1.88
1.88
1.88
2.30
1.88
2.03
2.10
1.75
2.00
2003
37.98
36.25
31.32
49.08
32.91
15.00
47.77
34.00
18.29
16.07
32.16
45.00
2.15
2.15
1.65
1.90
2.04
2.03
2.00
2.35
2.10
1.85
2.25
2.65
36.62
38.91
44.51
32.08
23.65
15.75
48.49
37.59
14.27
16.00
29.50
41.80
2.01
2.07
2.06
2.60
2.63
2.40
3.20
2.31
2.29
2.37
2.04
3.23
40.00
47.00
52.00
76.80
31.00
25.61
46.64
45.75
24.60
24.50
48.45
57.15
ENERO
FEBRERO
MARZO
ABRIL
MAYO
JUNIO
JULIO
AGOSTO
SEPTIEMBRE
OCTUBRE
NOVIEMBRE
DICIEMBRE
2002
2.42
42.84
1.88
35.20
1.98
38.42
2.05
45.13
2.41
40.07
2.54
39.73
2.50
37.12
Promedio
2001
2.81
2.89
1.90
2.52
2.09
2.18
2.52
2.42
2.20
2.29
2.04
3.23
2000
39.53
45.52
51.81
50.82
30.52
24.82
44.63
51.73
33.43
29.24
51.39
60.62
2.26
1.93
2.01
1.82
1.82
1.73
1.85
1.77
1.61
2.00
1.74
1.99
1999
38.09
45.68
40.16
38.67
32.71
21.56
39.65
37.96
26.86
29.41
32.68
38.92
2.26
2.28
2.11
1.85
1.69
1.71
1.78
2.05
2.37
2.03
1.86
1.79
1998
59.03
43.19
37.73
46.28
34.82
24.54
43.82
49.85
25.05
25.72
29.95
41.02
2.56
2.34
2.20
2.55
1.81
1.73
1.94
1.83
1.99
1.68
1.63
2.30
1997
45.64
39.91
51.69
36.87
37.31
30.38
61.48
60.35
33.05
39.84
54.74
50.33
2.86
2.19
2.93
2.29
2.22
2.29
2.14
2.21
2.11
2.21
2.17
3.28
1996
49.18
44.92
38.50
47.70
34.17
27.16
51.81
50.81
23.37
23.60
41.22
48.39
2.69
2.87
2.84
2.22
2.29
2.40
2.21
2.50
2.30
2.67
2.79
2.73
1995
37.80
37.41
34.95
45.94
31.11
30.48
49.90
51.27
24.11
36.40
40.37
57.03
3.02
2.69
2.44
2.53
2.36
2.42
2.63
2.67
2.38
2.19
2.30
2.38
41.35
37.75
41.26
32.30
26.69
25.44
51.23
56.06
30.01
24.89
31.04
47.42
ENERO
FEBRERO
MARZO
ABRIL
MAYO
JUNIO
JULIO
AGOSTO
SEPTIEMBRE
OCTUBRE
NOVIEMBRE
DICIEMBRE
1994
66
1
38.31%
2
40.61%
3
43.05%
4
45.63%
5
48.37%
6
51.27%
7
54.35%
8
57.61%
9
61.07%
10
64.73%
11
68.61%
12
72.73%
13
77.09%
14
81.72%
15
86.62%
16
90.00%
17
90.00%
18
90.00%
19
90.00%
20
90.00%
Das de Operacin al Ao
Cuartos
4614
4891
5185
5496
5826
6175
6546
6939
7356
7797
8264
8760
9285
9843
10433
10841
10841
10841
10841
10841
% de
Cuartos
Ao Ocupacin de Vendidos
Cuartos
por Ao
$ 5,075,400.00
$ 5,380,100.00
$ 5,703,500.00
$ 6,045,600.00
$ 6,408,600.00
$ 6,792,500.00
$ 7,200,600.00
$ 7,632,900.00
$ 8,091,600.00
$ 8,576,700.00
$ 9,090,400.00
$ 9,636,000.00
$ 10,213,500.00
$ 10,827,300.00
$ 11,476,300.00
$ 11,925,100.00
$ 11,925,100.00
$ 11,925,100.00
$ 11,925,100.00
$ 11,925,100.00
365
33
A
$ 1,443,120.78
$ 1,529,758.07
$ 1,621,712.45
$ 1,718,983.92
$ 1,822,198.02
$ 1,931,354.75
$ 2,047,392.42
$ 2,170,311.03
$ 2,300,736.12
$ 2,438,667.69
$ 2,584,731.28
$ 2,739,865.20
$ 2,904,069.45
$ 3,078,595.11
$ 3,263,129.41
$ 3,390,739.57
$ 3,390,739.57
$ 3,390,739.57
$ 3,390,739.57
$ 3,390,739.57
B
$ 446,589.06
$ 473,399.89
$ 501,856.15
$ 531,957.84
$ 563,898.54
$ 597,678.25
$ 633,587.34
$ 671,625.81
$ 711,987.24
$ 754,671.63
$ 799,872.56
$ 847,880.40
$ 898,695.15
$ 952,703.97
$ 1,009,810.07
$ 1,049,300.39
$ 1,049,300.39
$ 1,049,300.39
$ 1,049,300.39
$ 1,049,300.39
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
154,661.28
163,946.32
173,801.20
184,225.92
195,287.52
206,986.00
219,421.92
232,595.28
246,573.12
261,355.44
277,009.28
293,635.20
311,233.20
329,937.36
349,714.16
363,390.32
363,390.32
363,390.32
363,390.32
363,390.32
D
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$ 7,543,705.44
$ 7,996,589.36
$ 8,477,267.60
$ 8,985,740.16
$ 9,525,276.96
$ 10,095,878.00
$ 10,702,448.16
$ 11,344,987.44
$ 12,026,765.76
$ 12,747,783.12
$ 13,511,309.44
$ 14,322,249.60
$ 15,180,603.60
$ 16,092,911.28
$ 17,057,537.68
$ 17,724,601.36
$ 17,724,601.36
$ 17,724,601.36
$ 17,724,601.36
$ 17,724,601.36
Total de
Ingresos
Elaboracin Propia
423,934.32
449,385.08
476,397.80
504,972.48
535,292.88
567,359.00
601,446.48
637,555.32
675,869.28
716,388.36
759,296.32
804,868.80
853,105.80
904,374.84
958,584.04
996,071.08
996,071.08
996,071.08
996,071.08
996,071.08
Conceptos
A
B
C
D
Habitaciones
Alimentos
Bebidas
Otros AyB
Cover Centro Nocturno
Descorche
Pizzas
Renta de Equipo
Mquinas Expendedoras
Botellas de Agua
E Otros
Telefona
Lavandera
Intereses Ganados
Renta de Video
Descuentos por Pronto Pago
Ventas Varias (miscelneos)
Total de Costos
% Respecto al
Ingreso
Cuarto/Da
11.00%
64.80%
51.10%
3.70%
Monto de Costos
Operacionales
$121.00
$202.67
$49.46
$1.24
39.10%
$35.93
25.10%
$410.30
Fuente: Elaboracin Propia con la ayuda del Mto. Carlos Lucio Magni Escriba
67
Tabla 26
% de Gastos Funcionales
Gastos de Funcionales
% Respecto al Ingreso Total
Administracin y
10.20%
Generales
9.50%
Ventas y Promocin
4.20%
Mantenimiento
2.60%
Energticos
Total
26.50%
Fuente: Mto. Carlos Lucio Magni Escriba
Tabla 27
Gastos Funcionales
Ao
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Administracin y
Generales
$ 769,457.95
$ 815,652.11
$ 864,681.30
$ 916,545.50
$ 971,578.25
$ 1,029,779.56
$ 1,091,649.71
$ 1,157,188.72
$ 1,226,730.11
$ 1,300,273.88
$ 1,378,153.56
$ 1,460,869.46
$ 1,548,421.57
$ 1,641,476.95
$ 1,739,868.84
$ 1,807,909.34
$ 1,807,909.34
$ 1,807,909.34
$ 1,807,909.34
$ 1,807,909.34
Elaboracin Propia
Ventas y
Promocin
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
716,652.02
759,675.99
805,340.42
853,645.32
904,901.31
959,108.41
1,016,732.58
1,077,773.81
1,142,542.75
1,211,039.40
1,283,574.40
1,360,613.71
1,442,157.34
1,528,826.57
1,620,466.08
1,683,837.13
1,683,837.13
1,683,837.13
1,683,837.13
1,683,837.13
Mantenimiento
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
316,835.63
335,856.75
356,045.24
377,401.09
400,061.63
424,026.88
449,502.82
476,489.47
505,124.16
535,406.89
567,475.00
601,534.48
637,585.35
675,902.27
716,416.58
744,433.26
744,433.26
744,433.26
744,433.26
744,433.26
Energticos
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
196,136.34
207,911.32
220,408.96
233,629.24
247,657.20
262,492.83
278,263.65
294,969.67
312,695.91
331,442.36
351,294.05
372,378.49
394,695.69
418,415.69
443,495.98
460,839.64
460,839.64
460,839.64
460,839.64
460,839.64
Total Gastos
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
1,999,081.94
2,119,096.17
2,246,475.92
2,381,221.15
2,524,198.39
2,675,407.68
2,836,148.76
3,006,421.67
3,187,092.93
3,378,162.53
3,580,497.01
3,795,396.14
4,022,859.95
4,264,621.48
4,520,247.48
4,697,019.37
4,697,019.37
4,697,019.37
4,697,019.37
4,697,019.37
68
Tabla 28
Costos Operacionales
Ao
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
$558,294.00
$591,811.00
$627,385.00
$665,016.00
$704,946.00
$747,175.00
$792,066.00
$839,619.00
$890,076.00
$943,437.00
$999,944.00
$1,059,960.00
$1,123,485.00
$1,191,003.00
$1,262,393.00
$1,311,761.00
$1,311,761.00
$1,311,761.00
$1,311,761.00
$1,311,761.00
Elaboracin Propia
$935,142.27
$991,283.23
$1,050,869.67
$1,113,901.58
$1,180,784.32
$1,251,517.88
$1,326,710.29
$1,406,361.55
$1,490,877.01
$1,580,256.66
$1,674,905.87
$1,775,432.65
$1,881,837.00
$1,994,929.63
$2,114,507.86
$2,197,199.24
$2,197,199.24
$2,197,199.24
$2,197,199.24
$2,197,199.24
$228,207.01
$241,907.34
$256,448.49
$271,830.46
$288,152.15
$305,413.59
$323,763.13
$343,200.79
$363,825.48
$385,637.20
$408,734.88
$433,266.88
$459,233.22
$486,831.73
$516,012.95
$536,192.50
$536,192.50
$536,192.50
$536,192.50
$536,192.50
Total de Costos
Operacionales
$5,722.47
$6,066.01
$6,430.64
$6,816.36
$7,225.64
$7,658.48
$8,118.61
$8,606.03
$9,123.21
$9,670.15
$10,249.34
$10,864.50
$11,515.63
$12,207.68
$12,939.42
$13,445.44
$13,445.44
$13,445.44
$13,445.44
$13,445.44
$165,758.32
$175,709.57
$186,271.54
$197,444.24
$209,299.52
$221,837.37
$235,165.57
$249,284.13
$264,264.89
$280,107.85
$296,884.86
$314,703.70
$333,564.37
$353,610.56
$374,806.36
$389,463.79
$389,463.79
$389,463.79
$389,463.79
$389,463.79
$1,893,125.07
$2,006,777.15
$2,127,405.34
$2,255,008.64
$2,390,407.63
$2,533,602.32
$2,685,823.60
$2,847,071.50
$3,018,166.59
$3,199,108.86
$3,390,718.95
$3,594,227.73
$3,809,635.22
$4,038,582.60
$4,280,659.59
$4,448,061.97
$4,448,061.97
$4,448,061.97
$4,448,061.97
$4,448,061.97
Tabla 1
Tabla de Amortizacin
Concepto
Edificacin
Importe total
$25,745,490.39
Monto Anual
$1,287,274.52
Equipamiento
$2,664,122.45
10.00%
$266,412.25
Vehculos
$ 749,797.00
25.00%
$187,449.25
Equipo de computo
Mobiliario
$26,000.00
30.00%
$ 7,800.00
$1,716,912.70
10.00%
$171,691.27
$ 772,364.71
10.00%
$77,236.47
$ 1,997,863.76
Elaboracin Propia
69
Tabla 30
Total de Egresos
Ao
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Costos Operacionales
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
1,893,125.07
2,006,777.15
2,127,405.34
2,255,008.64
2,390,407.63
2,533,602.32
2,685,823.60
2,847,071.50
3,018,166.59
3,199,108.86
3,390,718.95
3,594,227.73
3,809,635.22
4,038,582.60
4,280,659.59
4,448,061.97
4,448,061.97
4,448,061.97
4,448,061.97
4,448,061.97
Gastos Funcionales
Total de Egresos
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
1,999,081.94
2,119,096.17
2,246,475.92
2,381,221.15
2,524,198.39
2,675,407.68
2,836,148.76
3,006,421.67
3,187,092.93
3,378,162.53
3,580,497.01
3,795,396.14
4,022,859.95
4,264,621.48
4,520,247.48
4,697,019.37
4,697,019.37
4,697,019.37
4,697,019.37
4,697,019.37
3,892,207.01
4,125,873.32
4,373,881.26
4,636,229.79
4,914,606.02
5,209,010.00
5,521,972.36
5,853,493.17
6,205,259.52
6,577,271.39
6,971,215.96
7,389,623.87
7,832,495.17
8,303,204.08
8,800,907.07
9,145,081.34
9,145,081.34
9,145,081.34
9,145,081.34
9,145,081.34
Elaboracin Propia
70
71
72
$3,020,074.32
$3,274,349.74
$3,544,608.19
$3,830,365.31
$4,027,973.63
$4,027,973.63
$4,027,973.63
$4,027,973.63
$21,464,520.95
$1,421,211.45
$1,540,870.46
$1,668,050.91
$1,802,524.85
$1,895,517.00
$1,895,517.00
$1,895,517.00
$1,895,517.00
$10,100,951.03
$4,441,285.77
$4,815,220.20
$5,212,659.10
$5,632,890.16
$5,923,490.63
$5,923,490.63
$5,923,490.63
$5,923,490.63
$31,565,471.98
$493,476.20
$535,024.47
$579,184.34
$625,876.69
$658,165.63
$658,165.63
$658,165.63
$658,165.63
$3,507,274.67
$4,934,761.97
$5,350,244.67
$5,791,843.44
$6,258,766.85
$6,581,656.26
$6,581,656.26
$6,581,656.26
$6,581,656.26
$35,072,746.65
$3,795,396.14
$4,022,859.95
$4,264,621.48
$4,520,247.48
$4,697,019.37
$4,697,019.37
$4,697,019.37
$4,697,019.37
$4,697,019.37
$8,730,158.11
$9,373,104.62
$10,056,464.92
$10,779,014.33
$11,278,675.63
$11,278,675.63
$11,278,675.63
$11,278,675.63
$39,769,766.02
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$3,594,227.73
$3,809,635.22
$4,038,582.60
$4,280,659.59
$4,448,061.97
$4,448,061.97
$4,448,061.97
$4,448,061.97
$4,448,061.97
$15,180,603.60
$16,092,911.28
$17,057,537.68
$17,724,601.36
$17,724,601.36
$17,724,601.36
$17,724,601.36
$17,724,601.36
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
$28,491,090.39
Elaboracin Propia
$2,779,844.59
$1,308,162.16
$4,088,006.75
$454,222.97
$4,542,229.72
$3,580,497.01
$8,122,726.73
$1,997,863.76
$3,390,718.95
$14,322,249.60
12
$13,511,309.44
11
$2,553,660.56
$1,201,722.61
$3,755,383.17
$417,264.80
$4,172,647.97
$3,378,162.53
$7,550,810.50
$1,997,863.76
$3,199,108.86
$12,747,783.12
10
$2,340,069.20
$1,101,209.03
$3,441,278.23
$382,364.25
$3,823,642.48
$3,187,092.93
$7,010,735.41
$1,997,863.76
$3,018,166.59
$12,026,765.76
$2,138,101.87
$3,144,267.46
$349,363.05
$3,493,630.51
$3,006,421.67
$1,947,758.57
$916,592.27
$1,006,165.59
$2,864,350.84
$318,261.20
$3,182,612.04
$2,836,148.76
$6,500,052.18
$1,997,863.76
$2,847,071.50
$11,344,987.44
$6,018,760.80
$1,997,863.76
$2,685,823.60
$10,702,448.16
$1,768,070.60
$832,033.22
$2,600,103.82
$288,900.42
$2,889,004.24
$2,675,407.68
$5,564,411.92
$1,997,863.76
$2,533,602.32
$10,095,878.00
$1,599,037.99
$752,488.47
$2,351,526.46
$261,280.72
$1,439,207.73
$677,274.22
$2,116,481.95
$235,164.66
$2,612,807.18
$2,524,198.39
$5,137,005.57
$1,997,863.76
$2,390,407.63
$9,525,276.96
$2,351,646.61
$2,381,221.15
$4,732,867.76
$1,997,863.76
$2,255,008.64
$8,985,740.16
$1,288,579.82
$606,390.50
$1,894,970.32
$210,552.26
$2,105,522.58
$2,246,475.92
$4,351,998.50
$1,997,863.76
$2,127,405.34
$8,477,267.60
$1,146,185.59
$539,381.46
$1,012,024.42
$476,246.78
$1,685,567.05
$187,285.23
$1,872,852.28
$2,119,096.17
$3,991,948.45
$1,997,863.76
$2,006,777.15
$1,488,271.20
$165,363.47
$1,653,634.67
$1,999,081.94
$3,652,716.61
$1,997,863.76
$1,893,125.07
$7,996,589.36
$7,543,705.44
Utilidades
despus ISR
Gastos
Funcionales
Utilidad Bruta
de operacin
Otros ingresos
Depreciacin
Ingresos de
Operacin
Ao
Costos de
operacin
ISR
32%
Tabla 32
Flujo de Efectivo
AO
INVERSIN
CAPITAL DE
TRABAJO
INGRESOS
NETOS
REEMPLAZO DE
DEPRECIACIN EQUIPAMIENTO +
MOBILIARIO
-$ 33,647,922.54 -$ 973,051.75
SUMA
-$ 34,620,974.29
1,012,024.42
1,997,863.76
3,009,888.18
1,146,185.59
1,997,863.76
3,144,049.35
1,288,579.82
1,997,863.76 -$
26,000.00
3,260,443.58
1,439,207.73
1,997,863.76 -$
749,797.00
2,687,274.49
1,599,037.99
1,997,863.76
3,596,901.75
1,768,070.60
1,997,863.76 -$
3,739,934.36
1,947,758.57
1,997,863.76
3,945,622.33
2,138,101.87
1,997,863.76 -$
749,797.00
3,386,168.63
2,340,069.20
1,997,863.76 -$
26,000.00
4,311,932.96
10
2,553,660.56
1,997,863.76 -$
5,153,399.86 -$
601,875.54
11
2,779,844.59
1,997,863.76
4,777,708.35
12
3,020,074.32
1,997,863.76 -$
4,242,141.08
13
3,274,349.74
1,997,863.76
5,272,213.50
14
3,544,608.19
1,997,863.76
5,542,471.95
15
3,830,365.31
1,997,863.76 -$
26,000.00
5,802,229.07
16
4,027,973.63
1,997,863.76 -$
749,797.00
5,276,040.39
17
4,027,973.63
1,997,863.76
6,025,837.39
18
4,027,973.63
1,997,863.76 -$
5,999,837.39
19
4,027,973.63
1,997,863.76
6,025,837.39
20
$ 21,464,520.95
1,997,863.76
$ 23,462,384.71
26,000.00
775,797.00
26,000.00
Elaboracin Propia
73
CAPTULO 7
INDICADORES DE RENTABILIDAD
Donde:
If = TIIE.- Tasa de Inters Interbancaria de Equilibrio a plazo de 28 das (5.41%)
f = Tasa de Inflacin (4.27%)
74
i = TMAR
Sustituyendo los valores en la frmula anterior se obtiene una TMAR del 1.09%, la
cual es realmente despreciable si se tiene en cuenta todos los riesgos a los que se estar
expuestos durante la vida econmica del proyecto.
Por lo anterior, para este ejercicio se determinara la TMAR como el 25% del Costo
Anual Totalizado (CAT) de las 10 tarjetas de crdito bancario con menor inters en el
mercado menos la tasa de inflacin proyectada para el presente ao.
75
TA R JETA
BA N O RTE F C IL
C L S IC A M A S TERC A RD IN TERN A C IO N A L
S A N TA N D ER LIG H T
C L S IC A
EF E C L S IC A
N U EV A S P IRA C L S IC A
TA RJETA V IS A C L S IC A
C L S IC A
BLU E
TA RJETA D E C RD ITO V ERD E
IN S TITU C I N
BA N O RTE
A F IRM E
S A N TA N D ER
S C O TIA BA N K IV ERLA T
IN BU RS A
IN V EX
BA N C O D EL BA JO
BA N REG IO
A M ERIC A N EX P RES S
A M ERIC A N EX P RES S
41.76%
41.76%
40.76%
40.76%
39.76%
38.00%
36.76%
34.76%
30.76%
19.95%
LO S C O N TR A TO S
M X IM A R EFER ID A EN
TA S A D E IN TER S
76
12.15%
4.27%
7.88%
25.00%
TM A R
48.60%
P romedio
- Inflacin
55.91%
55.91%
55.26%
55.26%
54.30%
50.72%
49.28%
46.42%
39.41%
23.57%
CAT
459
459
380
350
324
300
395
200
120
AN UAL
C O M IS I N
Donde:
Vt representa los flujos de caja en cada periodo t.
Io es el valor del desembolso inicial de la inversin.
n es el nmero de perodos considerado.
k es la tsa de inters.
77
AO
FLUJO DE
EFECTIVO
1/(1+i)^n
i= 7.88%
VALOR
PRESENTE
VALOR
PRESENTE
ACUMULADO
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
-$ 34,620,974.29
$ 3,009,888.18
$ 3,144,049.35
$ 3,260,443.58
$ 2,687,274.49
$ 3,596,901.75
$ 3,739,934.36
$ 3,945,622.33
$ 3,386,168.63
$ 4,311,932.96
-$
601,875.54
$ 4,777,708.35
$ 4,242,141.08
$ 5,272,213.50
$ 5,542,471.95
$ 5,802,229.07
$ 5,276,040.39
$ 6,025,837.39
$ 5,999,837.39
$ 6,025,837.39
$ 23,462,384.71
1
0.92695588
0.8592472
0.79648424
0.73830575
0.68437685
0.63438714
0.58804889
0.54509538
0.50527936
0.46837167
0.43415988
0.40244705
0.37305066
0.3458015
0.32054273
0.29712897
0.27542544
0.25530723
0.23665854
0.21937203
-$ 34,620,974.29
$ 2,790,033.54
$ 2,701,515.59
$ 2,596,891.93
$ 1,984,030.20
$ 2,461,636.29
$ 2,372,566.28
$ 2,320,218.84
$ 1,845,784.86
$ 2,178,730.74
-$
281,901.45
$ 2,074,289.26
$ 1,707,237.16
$ 1,966,802.71
$ 1,916,595.11
$ 1,859,862.35
$ 1,567,664.44
$ 1,659,668.94
$ 1,531,801.89
$ 1,426,065.88
$ 5,146,990.85
-$ 34,620,974.29
-$ 31,830,940.75
-$ 29,129,425.16
-$ 26,532,533.23
-$ 24,548,503.03
-$ 22,086,866.74
-$ 19,714,300.46
-$ 17,394,081.62
-$ 15,548,296.76
-$ 13,369,566.02
-$ 13,651,467.47
-$ 11,577,178.21
-$ 9,869,941.05
-$ 7,903,138.34
-$ 5,986,543.23
-$ 4,126,680.88
-$ 2,559,016.44
-$
899,347.50
$
632,454.39
$ 2,058,520.27
$ 7,205,511.12
Elaboracin Propia
Como se puede observar en la Tabla 33, el presente ejercicio, bajo estas condiciones
particulares se cuenta con un Valor Presente Neto de $ 7,205,511.12, lo que significa que la
inversin producira ganancias por encima de la rentabilidad exigida, por lo que el proyecto
puede aceptarse bajo este indicador.
El periodo de retorno de la inversin (PRI), es un instrumento que permite medir el
plazo de tiempo que se requiere para que los flujos netos de efectivo de una inversin
recuperen su costo o inversin inicial, de la Tabla 33 se puede observar que con estas
78
79
Donde:
Vt representa los flujos de caja en cada periodo t.
Io es el valor del desembolso inicial de la inversin.
n es el nmero de perodos considerado.
TIR es la tsa interna de retorno
VAN es el valor actual neto.
Existen casos especiales cuando un proyecto tiene varios ingresos y varios egresos
entreverados y con el objeto de eliminar los problemas de la TIR mltiple, los ingresos se
trasladan a valor final a la tasa de reinversin y los egresos se trasladan a valor presente a la
tasa de financiacin, la TIR de este nuevo flujo de caja se denomina TIR modificada
representada por TIRM. La TIRM tiene una notoria ventaja sobre la TIR ya que supone que
los flujos de efectivo procedentes de los proyectos se reinvierten al costo de capital.
Para nuestro ejercicio y conforme a los resultados obtenidos en la Tabla 33 la Tasa
Interna de Retorno (TIR) es del 9.95% y la TIRM bajo una tasa de prstamo del 13.41% es
del 8.91%, ambas mayores a la tasa de descuento utilizada para el ejercicio que es del
7.88%, por lo tanto y siguiendo los criterios antes vistos para estos indicadores, se
considera factible la construccin del Hotel Paradis.
80
Tabla 35
TIR y TIMR
TIR=
9.95%
TIRM=
8.91%
TMAR =
7.88%
An cuando los resultados de todos los indicadores han sido positivos, no es lo mejor
tomar decisiones apresuradas acerca de la factibilidad del proyecto, por lo que en el
siguiente captulo se analizaran diversos escenarios para la vida til del proyecto, los cuales
pudieran cambiar el rumbo del estudio.
81
CAPTULO 8
SIMULACIN DE ESCENARIOS
82
83
84
Inversin
inicial
Rango
Gastos
funcionales
Rango
Costos de
operacin
Rango
Ingresos de
operacin
Rango
Variable
97.5%
95.0%
92.5%
105.0%
110.0%
115.0%
120.0%
$119,712.25
90.0%
125.0%
-$0.01
89.83%
130.0%
135.0%
140.0%
105.0%
110.0%
115.0%
120.0%
125.0%
130.0%
135.0%
105.0%
110.0%
115.0%
120.0%
100%
-$0.01
121.41%
100%
-$0.01
140.52%
Elaboracin Propia
-$0.01
138.37%
100.0%
100.0%
Valores
8.2. SIMULACIN
El ltimo anlisis para el estudio de factibilidad ser el realizar una simulacin del
periodo de vida del proyecto, la cual consiste en crear distintos escenarios en base a
probabilidades y nmeros aleatorios lo que ayudar a realizar un anlisis dinmico, con
distintas combinaciones de ingresos, costos, gastos e inversin, es decir, formular un
modelo numrico que se aproxime tanto como sea posible a representar la realidad del
sistema. Para efectos de este ejercicio se utilizara el Mtodo Monte Carlo el cual da
solucin a una gran variedad de problemas matemticos haciendo experimentos con
muestreos estadsticos en una computadora. El mtodo es aplicable a cualquier tipo de
problema, ya sea estocstico, es decir, no determinado o determinstico (Facultad-deCiencias-Exactas, 2005).
Las principales caractersticas a tener en cuenta para la implementacin o utilizacin del
algoritmo son:
El sistema debe ser descripto por 1 o ms funciones de distribucin de probabilidad
Generador de nmeros aleatorios: como se generan los nmeros aleatorios es
importante para evitar que se produzca correlacin entre los valores muestrales.
Iterar tantas veces como muestras necesitamos
Establecer lmites y reglas de muestreo para las fdp: conocemos que valores pueden
adoptar las variables.
El primer paso ser definir las probabilidades de las variables en base a los resultados
del anlisis
de sensibilidad, las cuales para este ejercicio sern los Ingresos, Costos
Operacionales, Gastos Funcionales e Inversin Inicial, mismas que servirn como base para
la formulacin de intervalos para los nmeros aleatorios.
85
% DE
INGRESOS
Frecuencias
(probabilidad)
85.0%
87.5%
90.0%
92.5%
95.0%
97.5%
100.0%
102.5%
105.0%
107.5%
110.0%
Elaboracin Propia
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.10
0.11
0.12
0.14
0.08
0.07
0.06
0.05
INGRESOS
Frecuencia
acumulada
0.09
0.18
0.27
0.37
0.48
0.60
0.74
0.82
0.89
0.95
1.00
Intervalos de
nmeros aleatorios
Inferior Superior
0.00
0.10
0.19
0.28
0.38
0.49
0.61
0.75
0.83
0.90
0.96
0.09
0.18
0.27
0.37
0.48
0.60
0.74
0.82
0.89
0.95
1.00
% DE
INGRESOS
85.0%
87.5%
90.0%
92.5%
95.0%
97.5%
100.0%
102.5%
105.0%
107.5%
110.0%
% DE
COSTOS
Frecuencias
(probabilidad)
90.0%
95.0%
100.0%
105.0%
110.0%
115.0%
120.0%
125.0%
130.0%
135.0%
140.0%
145.0%
150.0%
Elaboracin Propia
0.08
0.09
0.12
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.09
0.08
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.02
COSTOS DE OPERACIN
Frecuencia
Intervalos de
acumulada
nmeros aleatorios
0.08
0.17
0.29
0.39
0.49
0.59
0.68
0.76
0.83
0.89
0.94
0.98
1.00
Inferior
Superior
0.00
0.09
0.18
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.69
0.77
0.84
0.90
0.95
0.99
0.08
0.17
0.29
0.39
0.49
0.59
0.68
0.76
0.83
0.89
0.94
0.98
1.00
% DE COSTOS
90.00%
95.00%
100.00%
105.00%
110.00%
115.00%
120.00%
125.00%
130.00%
135.00%
140.00%
145.00%
150.00%
86
Tabla 39
Probabilidad de Gastos Funcionales
% DE
GASTOS
Frecuencias
(probabilidad)
90.0%
95.0%
100.0%
105.0%
110.0%
115.0%
120.0%
125.0%
130.0%
135.0%
140.0%
145.0%
150.0%
Elaboracin Propia
0.18
0.18
0.20
0.12
0.11
0.08
0.03
0.03
0.02
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.01
GASTOS FUNCIONALES
Frecuencia
Intervalos de
acumulada
nmeros aleatorios
0.18
0.36
0.56
0.68
0.79
0.87
0.90
0.93
0.95
0.97
0.98
0.99
1.00
Inferior
Superior
0.00
0.19
0.37
0.57
0.69
0.80
0.88
0.91
0.94
0.96
0.98
0.99
1.00
0.18
0.36
0.56
0.68
0.79
0.87
0.90
0.93
0.95
0.97
0.98
0.99
1.00
% DE
INGRESOS
90.00%
95.00%
100.00%
105.00%
110.00%
115.00%
120.00%
125.00%
130.00%
135.00%
140.00%
145.00%
150.00%
Tabla 40
Probabilidad de Inversin
% DE
GASTOS
Frecuencias
(probabilidad)
95.0%
100.0%
105.0%
110.0%
115.0%
120.0%
125.0%
Elaboracin Propia
0.15
0.17
0.20
0.16
0.14
0.10
0.08
INVERSIN
Frecuencia
acumulada
0.15
0.32
0.52
0.68
0.82
0.92
1.00
Intervalos de
nmeros aleatorios
Inferior
Superior
0.00
0.16
0.33
0.53
0.69
0.83
0.93
0.15
0.32
0.52
0.68
0.82
0.92
1.00
% DE
INGRESOS
95.00%
100.00%
105.00%
110.00%
115.00%
120.00%
125.00%
87
Una vez que se han definido las frecuencias de probabilidad el siguiente paso en la
simulacin es afectar el Estado de Resultados y el Flujo de Efectivo en base a nmeros
aleatorios y en base a estos se obtendrn los porcentajes de afectacin a las variables
(Ingresos, Costos Operacionales, Gastos Funcionales e Inversin Inicial) originales, a esto
se le conoce como Escenario, obteniendo como resultado final todos los indicadores de
rentabilidad econmica (VPN, TIR, TIRM y Periodo de Retorno) para cada Escenario.
En la Tabla 41 se puede observar los valores originales, el nmero aleatorio y el valor que
tomar cada variable en cada uno de las observaciones. Por motivos de espacio en la pgina
dicha tabla ser presentada en partes, Estado de Resultados en las pginas 89/90 y el Flujo
de Efectivo en la Pgina 91.
Una vez que se ha realizado correctamente la tabla, con la ayuda de EXCEL se realizar
una corrida de observaciones, la cual consistir de 500 observaciones (Escenarios) para
poder considerarla como representativa (Ver Tabla 42).
88
89
Ingresos de
Operacin Base
$7,543,705.44
$7,996,589.36
$8,477,267.60
$8,985,740.16
$9,525,276.96
$10,095,878.00
$10,702,448.16
$11,344,987.44
$12,026,765.76
$12,747,783.12
$13,511,309.44
$14,322,249.60
$15,180,603.60
$16,092,911.28
$17,057,537.68
$17,724,601.36
$17,724,601.36
$17,724,601.36
$17,724,601.36
$17,724,601.36
Ao
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
0.97
0.29
0.65
0.53
0.90
0.28
0.51
0.37
0.18
0.47
0.43
0.82
0.12
0.90
0.25
0.73
0.13
0.98
0.53
0.40
Nmero Aleatorio
110.00%
92.50%
100.00%
97.50%
105.00%
90.00%
97.50%
92.50%
87.50%
95.00%
95.00%
102.50%
87.50%
105.00%
90.00%
100.00%
87.50%
110.00%
97.50%
95.00%
% ALEATORIO
$19,497,061.50
$16,395,256.26
$17,724,601.36
$17,281,486.33
$18,610,831.43
$15,351,783.91
$15,690,588.50
$14,042,058.33
$12,531,968.40
$12,835,743.97
$12,110,393.96
$12,327,434.90
$9,926,864.01
$11,237,570.57
$9,086,290.20
$9,525,276.96
$7,862,522.64
$9,324,994.36
$7,796,674.63
$7,166,520.17
Ingresos de
Operacin en
Escenarios
$28,491,090.39
Otros ingresos
$4,448,061.97
$4,448,061.97
$4,448,061.97
$4,448,061.97
$4,448,061.97
$4,280,659.59
$4,038,582.60
$3,809,635.22
$3,594,227.73
$3,390,718.95
$3,199,108.86
$3,018,166.59
$2,847,071.50
$2,685,823.60
$2,533,602.32
$2,390,407.63
$2,255,008.64
$2,127,405.34
$2,006,777.15
$1,893,125.07
Costos de
Operacin Base
0.41
0.68
0.97
0.74
0.20
0.25
0.76
0.80
0.45
0.12
0.83
0.60
0.02
0.80
0.85
0.35
0.95
0.69
0.27
0.18
Nmero Aleatorio
110.00%
120.00%
145.00%
125.00%
100.00%
100.00%
125.00%
130.00%
110.00%
95.00%
130.00%
120.00%
90.00%
130.00%
135.00%
105.00%
145.00%
120.00%
100.00%
100.00%
% ALEATORIO
$4,892,868.17
$5,337,674.36
$6,449,689.86
$5,560,077.46
$4,448,061.97
$4,280,659.59
$5,048,228.25
$4,952,525.79
$3,953,650.50
$3,221,183.00
$4,158,841.52
$3,621,799.91
$2,562,364.35
$3,491,570.68
$3,420,363.13
$2,509,928.01
$3,269,762.53
$2,552,886.41
$2,006,777.15
$1,893,125.07
Costos de
Operacin en
Escenarios
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
Depreciacin
$39,324,959.82
$10,389,063.24
$9,277,047.74
$10,166,660.14
$11,278,675.63
$10,779,014.33
$9,046,819.27
$8,230,214.05
$8,370,735.34
$8,292,262.68
$6,591,077.84
$6,407,102.09
$6,784,759.33
$5,213,013.72
$4,677,651.11
$5,017,485.19
$3,718,113.87
$3,926,517.43
$3,991,948.45
$3,652,716.61
Utilidad Bruta de
operacin
90
Gastos Funcionales
$1,999,081.94
$2,119,096.17
$2,246,475.92
$2,381,221.15
$2,524,198.39
$2,675,407.68
$2,836,148.76
$3,006,421.67
$3,187,092.93
$3,378,162.53
$3,580,497.01
$3,795,396.14
$4,022,859.95
$4,264,621.48
$4,520,247.48
$4,697,019.37
$4,697,019.37
$4,697,019.37
$4,697,019.37
$4,697,019.37
Utilidad Bruta de
operacin
$3,652,716.61
$3,991,948.45
$3,926,517.43
$3,718,113.87
$5,017,485.19
$4,677,651.11
$5,213,013.72
$6,784,759.33
$6,407,102.09
$6,591,077.84
$8,292,262.68
$8,370,735.34
$8,230,214.05
$9,046,819.27
$10,779,014.33
$11,278,675.63
$10,166,660.14
$9,277,047.74
$10,389,063.24
$39,324,959.82
0.34
0.26
0.47
0.21
0.84
0.34
0.43
0.02
0.84
0.13
0.27
0.78
0.02
0.57
0.74
0.68
0.41
0.74
0.75
0.71
Nmero Aleatorio
95.00%
95.00%
100.00%
95.00%
115.00%
95.00%
100.00%
90.00%
115.00%
90.00%
95.00%
110.00%
90.00%
100.00%
110.00%
105.00%
100.00%
110.00%
110.00%
110.00%
% ALEATORIO
$4,462,168.40
$4,462,168.40
$4,697,019.37
$4,462,168.40
$5,401,572.28
$4,294,235.11
$4,264,621.48
$3,620,573.96
$4,364,705.56
$3,222,447.31
$3,209,254.40
$3,505,802.22
$2,705,779.50
$2,836,148.76
$2,942,948.45
$2,650,408.31
$2,381,221.15
$2,471,123.51
$2,331,005.79
$2,198,990.13
Gastos Funcionales
en Escenarios
$34,862,791.42
$5,926,894.83
$4,580,028.37
$5,704,491.74
$5,877,103.35
$6,484,779.22
$4,782,197.79
$4,609,640.10
$4,006,029.78
$5,069,815.37
$3,381,823.44
$2,901,299.87
$4,078,979.83
$2,376,864.96
$1,734,702.66
$2,367,076.88
$1,336,892.72
$1,455,393.92
$1,660,942.66
$1,453,726.48
Utilidad neta de
operacin
$3,486,279.14
$592,689.48
$458,002.84
$570,449.17
$587,710.34
$648,477.92
$478,219.78
$460,964.01
$400,602.98
$506,981.54
$338,182.34
$290,129.99
$407,897.98
$237,686.50
$173,470.27
$236,707.69
$133,689.27
$145,539.39
$166,094.27
$145,372.65
Participacin
Utilidades 10%
$31,376,512.28
$5,334,205.35
$4,122,025.54
$5,134,042.56
$5,289,393.02
$5,836,301.30
$4,303,978.01
$4,148,676.09
$3,605,426.80
$4,562,833.83
$3,043,641.09
$2,611,169.88
$3,671,081.84
$2,139,178.46
$1,561,232.39
$2,130,369.19
$1,203,203.45
$1,309,854.53
$1,494,848.40
$1,308,353.83
$10,040,483.93
$1,706,945.71
$1,319,048.17
$1,642,893.62
$1,692,605.77
$1,867,616.42
$1,377,272.96
$1,327,576.35
$1,153,736.58
$1,460,106.83
$973,965.15
$835,574.36
$1,174,746.19
$684,537.11
$499,594.37
$681,718.14
$385,025.10
$419,153.45
$478,351.49
$418,673.23
ISR
32%
$21,336,028.35
$3,627,259.64
$2,802,977.36
$3,491,148.94
$3,596,787.25
$3,968,684.89
$2,926,705.05
$2,821,099.74
$2,451,690.22
$3,102,727.01
$2,069,675.94
$1,775,595.52
$2,496,335.65
$1,454,641.36
$1,061,638.03
$1,448,651.05
$818,178.35
$890,701.08
$1,016,496.91
$889,680.60
Utilidades despus
ISR
91
-$28,990,342.49
-$26,904,421.28
-$24,787,599.59
-$22,316,667.49
-$20,388,494.68
-$18,835,617.19
-$17,235,155.84
-$18,036,806.67
-$16,242,882.59
-$14,442,165.73
-$12,736,292.95
-$11,211,482.65
-$9,349,270.27
-$7,819,784.70
-$6,197,604.11
-$5,023,027.45
-$3,763,429.03
$1,327,186.46
$1,327,186.46
20 Aos
8.26%
8.12%
$1,965,985.67
$2,085,921.21
$2,116,821.70
$2,470,932.10
$1,928,172.80
$1,552,877.50
$1,600,461.35
-$801,650.83
$1,793,924.08
$1,800,716.85
$1,705,872.79
$1,524,810.30
$1,862,212.38
$1,529,485.57
$1,622,180.59
$1,174,576.66
$1,259,598.43
$5,090,615.48
VPN =
PR=
TIR=
TRM=
$0.80
$0.74
$0.68
$0.63
$0.59
$0.55
$0.51
$0.47
$0.43
$0.40
$0.37
$0.35
$0.32
$0.30
$0.28
$0.26
$0.24
$0.22
$2,468,329.66
$2,825,281.01
$3,093,064.43
$3,894,990.82
$3,278,932.81
$2,848,817.96
$3,167,478.16
-$1,711,569.84
$4,131,943.51
$4,474,419.33
$4,572,764.47
$4,409,495.93
$5,809,560.46
$5,147,547.79
$5,889,726.69
$4,600,639.95
$5,322,429.62
$23,205,399.51
-$749,797.00
-$749,797.00
-$26,000.00
-$5,153,399.86
-$26,000.00
-$749,797.00
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,997,863.76
$1,577,214.25
$1,095,200.67
$1,923,127.06
$1,281,069.05
$1,600,751.20
$1,195,614.40
$1,443,966.26
$2,134,079.75
$3,252,352.57
$2,574,900.71
$2,411,632.17
$3,837,696.70
$3,899,481.03
$3,891,862.93
$2,628,776.19
$3,324,565.86
$21,207,535.75
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
-$26,000.00
-$775,797.00
-$26,000.00
-$30,956,328.16
$2,443,601.40
$0.86
$2,843,886.38
-$26,000.00
$1,997,863.76
-$973,051.75
$496,465.90
-$35,330,318.67
$846,022.62
105.00%
0.51
33,647,922.54
-$33,399,929.56
-$36,303,370.42
VALOR
PRESENTE
ACUMULADO
VALOR
PRESENTE
1/(1+i)^n
i= 16.23%
SUMA
$2,903,440.85
REEMPLAZO DE
EQUIPAMIENTO +
MOBILIARIO
-$36,303,370.42
DEPRECIACIN
$0.93
INGRESOS
NETOS
$1.00
CAPITAL DE
TRABAJO
$3,132,231.99
INVERSIN EN
ESCENARIOS
-$36,303,370.42
% ALEATORIO
$1,997,863.76
Nmero Aleatorio
$1,134,368.23
-$
INVERSIN
AO
92
Corridas
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
VPN
$5,765,640.46
-$574,961.47
-$4,726,390.42
$2,541,174.09
$5,529,082.15
$2,530,022.67
$2,525,264.31
$1,619,290.46
-$1,107,488.61
$1,769,550.95
-$1,535,365.72
$3,093,040.81
$1,310,974.09
$4,413,163.21
$5,897,813.86
-$1,595,115.61
-$3,832,690.23
-$378,599.33
-$1,178,502.18
$4,799,387.79
$5,835,357.89
$5,728,943.33
$4,401,772.23
-$687,690.23
$3,171,630.04
$3,452,442.54
$4,834,032.25
$3,185,736.35
$2,635,646.44
-$4,564,074.96
$1,980,414.80
-$1,196,217.71
-$3,471,120.84
$41,230.74
-$4,010,413.12
-$1,698,482.83
$2,456,312.55
-$5,873,970.42
$215,289.90
$4,998,029.75
-$1,738,602.32
-$3,835,576.43
$1,321,295.54
$304,160.14
$4,125,487.01
$1,229,517.37
-$5,723,810.27
$4,455,862.73
$5,564,697.01
$2,642,051.66
-$5,170,212.83
TIR
9.60%
7.72%
6.72%
8.57%
9.55%
8.58%
8.59%
8.33%
7.59%
8.36%
7.49%
8.80%
8.25%
9.26%
9.67%
7.47%
6.93%
7.78%
7.57%
9.29%
9.62%
9.61%
9.16%
7.70%
8.76%
8.89%
9.26%
8.81%
8.61%
6.76%
8.41%
7.58%
6.99%
7.89%
6.84%
7.43%
8.57%
6.41%
7.94%
9.34%
7.42%
6.89%
8.24%
7.96%
9.15%
8.21%
6.45%
9.24%
9.52%
8.63%
6.58%
PR
19 Aos
N/A
N/A
20 Aos
19 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
19 Aos
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
20 Aos
19 Aos
19 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
N/A
N/A
20 Aos
N/A
N/A
20 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
19 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
TRM
8.76%
7.81%
7.27%
8.26%
8.74%
8.25%
8.25%
8.14%
7.74%
8.14%
7.69%
8.39%
8.09%
8.58%
8.79%
7.70%
7.37%
7.85%
7.73%
8.63%
8.78%
8.78%
8.56%
7.80%
8.36%
8.41%
8.60%
8.39%
8.28%
7.31%
8.17%
7.76%
7.43%
7.91%
7.35%
7.68%
8.26%
7.13%
7.95%
8.62%
7.67%
7.39%
8.08%
7.96%
8.54%
8.07%
7.14%
8.57%
8.74%
8.29%
7.24%
Corridas
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
VPN
-$279,534.19
-$4,072,669.18
$723,319.53
$783,909.14
$956,995.67
$4,411,901.70
-$1,788,276.33
$3,395,021.30
$4,862,738.45
-$968,524.97
$4,559,268.26
$3,075,318.06
-$791,021.48
-$918,255.44
$1,433,254.11
$746,352.58
$2,270,553.18
$3,061,411.29
$5,754,639.88
$5,781,686.01
-$4,157,967.46
$2,429,827.45
$4,198,396.64
$4,709,249.27
-$4,497,110.75
-$5,669,340.44
-$2,380,935.69
-$3,187,442.96
$1,584,804.59
-$2,381,199.50
-$3,338,845.29
-$4,770,683.85
-$444,974.62
$4,251,422.85
$1,141,709.44
-$1,133,334.29
-$123,475.42
$847,168.25
-$263,263.38
-$180,371.07
$5,222,653.63
$1,169,650.76
$2,661,201.64
$2,868,473.44
$3,326,269.64
$4,852,344.74
$3,577,229.12
$2,043,321.96
$3,582,082.35
-$2,514,895.61
$4,683,318.11
TIR
7.81%
6.86%
8.08%
8.10%
8.15%
9.16%
7.41%
8.84%
9.28%
7.63%
9.22%
8.74%
7.68%
7.64%
8.27%
8.08%
8.49%
8.74%
9.63%
9.65%
6.84%
8.57%
9.09%
9.31%
6.76%
6.50%
7.24%
7.09%
8.33%
7.28%
7.02%
6.69%
7.76%
9.06%
8.19%
7.59%
7.85%
8.11%
7.81%
7.83%
9.42%
8.21%
8.61%
8.67%
8.86%
9.29%
8.87%
8.45%
8.93%
7.24%
9.23%
PR
N/A
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
19 Aos
19 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
20 Aos
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
N/A
20 Aos
N/A
N/A
19 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
TRM
7.87%
7.36%
8.00%
8.03%
8.04%
8.54%
7.67%
8.38%
8.61%
7.77%
8.57%
8.36%
7.79%
7.78%
8.11%
8.01%
8.23%
8.33%
8.77%
8.76%
7.36%
8.25%
8.51%
8.63%
7.32%
7.16%
7.60%
7.50%
8.15%
7.58%
7.44%
7.26%
7.84%
8.50%
8.07%
7.74%
7.89%
8.02%
7.87%
7.89%
8.66%
8.08%
8.29%
8.31%
8.39%
8.61%
8.41%
8.20%
8.43%
7.55%
8.59%
Corridas
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
VPN
$3,331,212.11
-$2,047,128.35
$4,171,358.40
-$2,535,003.61
$6,021,664.84
$1,434,384.78
$1,377,716.11
$3,799,375.70
$5,153,835.45
$6,391,587.97
-$3,313,979.70
$862,618.01
$5,536,775.55
$74,052.49
$6,319,682.71
-$12,136.55
-$715,388.03
$1,303,872.83
-$2,895,728.48
$4,340,303.45
$1,242,325.27
$1,704,625.99
$2,951,256.66
$6,458,558.46
$2,357,802.85
-$1,385,709.08
$5,726,170.35
-$211,463.96
$5,051,318.46
-$261,233.00
$6,136,785.17
$3,544,031.25
-$3,768,523.26
-$2,076,640.28
$2,809,229.41
-$1,034,229.48
$1,360,751.56
-$3,805,910.45
$451,136.86
-$2,533,836.30
$5,239,137.05
-$1,444,568.80
$683,171.80
$3,583,177.65
-$1,145,947.67
-$246,817.64
$1,000,893.85
$5,695,256.24
-$2,440,536.03
-$2,513,541.45
$1,830,183.63
TIR
8.85%
7.35%
9.09%
7.22%
9.69%
8.28%
8.27%
9.00%
9.36%
9.82%
7.04%
8.11%
9.55%
7.90%
9.80%
7.88%
7.69%
8.25%
7.14%
9.14%
8.24%
8.36%
8.70%
9.83%
8.55%
7.51%
9.66%
7.82%
9.36%
7.81%
9.74%
8.87%
6.94%
7.33%
8.67%
7.61%
8.25%
6.96%
8.00%
7.23%
9.41%
7.49%
8.07%
8.89%
7.57%
7.81%
8.17%
9.60%
7.26%
7.24%
8.39%
TRM
8.39%
7.62%
8.51%
7.55%
8.82%
8.11%
8.12%
8.46%
8.64%
8.86%
7.45%
8.03%
8.74%
7.91%
8.84%
7.92%
7.80%
8.10%
7.53%
8.54%
8.11%
8.17%
8.32%
8.87%
8.25%
7.72%
8.77%
7.89%
8.67%
7.88%
8.81%
8.40%
7.42%
7.62%
8.31%
7.77%
8.09%
7.41%
7.95%
7.57%
8.65%
7.71%
8.01%
8.39%
7.75%
7.86%
8.05%
8.75%
7.57%
7.58%
8.17%
Corridas
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
VPN
-$1,571,271.29
$2,582,222.44
$4,259,485.39
$3,434,906.53
-$3,693,234.17
-$1,779,241.03
$3,237,794.76
$2,365,199.58
$3,147,561.36
$4,049,487.60
-$824,918.79
$940,710.45
-$5,188,329.41
-$1,030,416.10
$1,034,420.52
$3,780,365.79
-$5,355,632.37
$2,444,419.65
$1,876,449.34
-$2,336,632.31
$2,050,412.58
$4,853,191.88
$5,308,944.83
$1,141,926.59
$5,343,077.40
-$1,846,230.48
$505,804.69
-$2,253,761.60
$3,858,762.28
$2,740,106.25
-$1,935,431.72
-$118,831.07
$1,276,632.08
$5,007,413.86
$2,604,459.32
$5,881,215.81
$1,736,184.93
-$51,627.68
-$4,283,715.95
$3,312,247.55
$1,828,860.31
$5,307,722.27
-$774,984.10
$5,515,543.60
$5,112,947.37
$4,204,950.89
-$723,115.53
-$3,568,608.25
$5,329,662.87
-$128,793.52
-$2,247,110.42
TIR
7.48%
8.61%
9.10%
8.85%
6.93%
7.43%
8.86%
8.56%
8.80%
9.13%
7.67%
8.13%
6.58%
7.61%
8.16%
8.99%
6.47%
8.55%
8.41%
7.27%
8.45%
9.28%
9.40%
8.19%
9.49%
7.41%
8.02%
7.28%
8.97%
8.66%
7.38%
7.85%
8.23%
9.39%
8.62%
9.67%
8.34%
7.87%
6.81%
8.83%
8.40%
9.47%
7.68%
9.49%
9.37%
9.07%
7.68%
6.97%
9.48%
7.85%
7.30%
PR
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
N/A
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
19 Aos
20 Aos
19 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
19 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
19 Aos
N/A
19 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
N/A
19 Aos
N/A
N/A
TRM
7.68%
8.28%
8.52%
8.38%
7.40%
7.65%
8.43%
8.25%
8.37%
8.53%
7.79%
8.03%
7.21%
7.76%
8.03%
8.47%
7.16%
8.24%
8.18%
7.57%
8.18%
8.60%
8.66%
8.05%
8.71%
7.67%
7.96%
7.60%
8.45%
8.31%
7.64%
7.88%
8.10%
8.66%
8.28%
8.78%
8.15%
7.90%
7.34%
8.36%
8.15%
8.71%
7.80%
8.71%
8.64%
8.52%
7.80%
7.40%
8.70%
7.88%
7.61%
93
Corridas
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
VPN
$2,552,516.84
-$1,887,770.93
$5,171,635.24
$2,301,945.84
-$534,871.82
-$693,514.73
$4,875,809.82
$4,040,232.38
$5,977,756.85
-$1,069,963.41
$2,427,916.75
-$371,159.62
$5,571,451.41
-$424,362.79
-$70,463.57
-$727,348.38
$3,360,663.49
$3,244,438.59
-$5,949,203.33
$2,707,149.91
-$850,056.53
$3,706,665.59
-$1,155,593.97
$2,336,373.77
$6,005,350.61
$4,338,875.04
$4,924,494.72
$2,599,788.31
-$60,927.59
-$2,746,394.64
$280,847.03
-$4,216,623.19
$2,345,902.15
$6,067,063.85
$413,183.59
-$4,827,177.43
$3,479,593.46
$4,234,560.82
$2,232,047.09
-$1,188,288.87
-$397,887.17
$6,438,201.90
$3,748,917.23
-$696,249.59
-$4,210,997.93
$3,027,061.80
$3,126,708.56
-$2,952,426.48
-$1,354,937.90
$1,147,422.30
$5,728,850.72
TIR
8.61%
7.38%
9.36%
8.53%
7.74%
7.70%
9.27%
8.99%
9.68%
7.60%
8.58%
7.78%
9.54%
7.77%
7.86%
7.69%
8.83%
8.78%
6.43%
8.63%
7.66%
8.96%
7.59%
8.53%
9.69%
9.16%
9.27%
8.60%
7.86%
7.18%
7.96%
6.82%
8.55%
9.75%
7.99%
6.65%
8.86%
9.17%
8.54%
7.57%
7.77%
9.81%
8.97%
7.70%
6.81%
8.73%
8.76%
7.14%
7.53%
8.19%
9.60%
PR
20 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
19 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
N/A
19 Aos
N/A
N/A
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
19 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
N/A
20 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
19 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
N/A
18 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
N/A
20 Aos
19 Aos
TRM
8.28%
7.66%
8.65%
8.22%
7.81%
7.81%
8.60%
8.47%
8.79%
7.74%
8.27%
7.85%
8.74%
7.83%
7.88%
7.80%
8.37%
8.37%
7.10%
8.28%
7.78%
8.45%
7.75%
8.23%
8.81%
8.53%
8.61%
8.28%
7.89%
7.54%
7.95%
7.35%
8.24%
8.81%
7.95%
7.28%
8.41%
8.57%
8.25%
7.75%
7.83%
8.86%
8.47%
7.80%
7.35%
8.33%
8.35%
7.51%
7.73%
8.07%
8.77%
Corridas
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300
301
302
303
304
305
VPN
-$482,131.99
$1,614,503.66
$4,030,900.48
-$3,238,162.19
-$4,774,680.96
$1,659,731.89
$3,402,154.57
$1,802,162.46
$4,269,905.06
$1,634,591.35
$897,248.43
$998,463.06
$5,307,041.20
$384,069.43
$3,764,145.48
$5,575,829.60
$5,593,978.79
$3,614,775.07
$1,269,675.59
$711,666.50
-$2,369,915.57
-$2,306,035.88
$2,791,419.82
$942,420.14
$4,962,710.20
$657,639.88
$3,020,267.54
$4,448,491.27
$3,385,958.56
$4,396,380.31
$6,534,710.59
$4,781,142.79
-$1,061,442.85
$5,280,057.52
$1,463,723.56
$2,091,951.08
$4,728,768.95
$1,093,266.36
$4,118,144.19
-$4,165,874.59
$3,419,832.27
$2,577,318.80
-$537,466.50
-$1,564,257.67
-$4,275,017.11
$3,490,613.26
$2,700,854.88
$352,048.03
$1,433,923.42
$2,801,488.33
-$4,135,886.85
TIR
7.75%
8.31%
8.99%
7.08%
6.68%
8.33%
8.85%
8.37%
9.13%
8.33%
8.12%
8.16%
9.47%
7.98%
8.97%
9.54%
9.55%
8.90%
8.22%
8.07%
7.27%
7.27%
8.66%
8.15%
9.39%
8.05%
8.77%
9.23%
8.87%
9.21%
9.88%
9.34%
7.60%
9.48%
8.27%
8.45%
9.28%
8.17%
9.09%
6.85%
8.86%
8.61%
7.74%
7.46%
6.82%
8.84%
8.65%
7.98%
8.28%
8.66%
6.86%
PR
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
19 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
19 Aos
19 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
19 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
18 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
19 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
N/A
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
TRM
7.84%
8.11%
8.46%
7.48%
7.30%
8.13%
8.40%
8.15%
8.52%
8.13%
8.02%
8.06%
8.71%
7.97%
8.46%
8.74%
8.76%
8.40%
8.08%
8.01%
7.58%
7.60%
8.31%
8.05%
8.66%
7.99%
8.35%
8.61%
8.41%
8.58%
8.88%
8.63%
7.78%
8.71%
8.11%
8.19%
8.62%
8.04%
8.51%
7.38%
8.42%
8.27%
7.82%
7.67%
7.35%
8.41%
8.28%
7.96%
8.13%
8.31%
7.37%
Corridas
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
328
329
330
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
338
339
340
341
342
343
344
345
346
347
348
349
350
351
352
353
354
355
356
VPN
$4,486,283.41
$6,609,107.03
$2,273,729.32
-$760,950.95
$102,376.43
$5,602,297.73
$4,698,289.21
$1,368,744.92
$1,070,300.50
-$1,431,912.32
-$797,224.69
$5,996,608.62
$1,190,518.01
$1,050,337.46
$2,249,938.91
$316,955.67
$2,669,908.34
-$1,694,170.01
$3,653,173.96
$102,271.64
$2,158,238.96
-$2,633,987.20
$392,940.83
$731,749.63
$4,404,355.28
-$2,382,925.68
-$3,018,028.81
$1,113,820.24
-$1,369,056.54
-$781,380.58
$262,347.47
-$1,875,031.56
$720,027.90
$2,205,780.65
$4,406,938.32
$6,377,374.28
-$3,522,025.72
$4,187,827.46
-$3,269,529.69
$4,979,040.49
$3,191,097.50
-$1,510,113.72
$6,148,299.24
$4,587,520.61
-$2,601,427.27
-$173,556.68
$4,244,014.35
$4,453,894.30
$3,366,340.91
-$1,556,831.61
$19,163.23
TIR
9.20%
9.83%
8.48%
7.68%
7.91%
9.59%
9.32%
8.25%
8.17%
7.49%
7.66%
9.69%
8.22%
8.18%
8.53%
7.97%
8.64%
7.44%
8.89%
7.91%
8.49%
7.21%
7.99%
8.07%
9.18%
7.28%
7.13%
8.18%
7.52%
7.68%
7.95%
7.38%
8.07%
8.49%
9.14%
9.78%
6.99%
9.09%
7.09%
9.39%
8.76%
7.49%
9.70%
9.21%
7.23%
7.83%
9.11%
9.16%
8.81%
7.47%
7.89%
PR
20 Aos
18 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
19 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
N/A
19 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
N/A
20 Aos
N/A
N/A
20 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
19 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
19 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
Corridas
357
358
359
360
361
362
363
364
365
366
367
368
369
370
371
372
373
374
375
376
377
378
379
380
381
382
383
384
385
386
387
388
389
390
391
392
393
394
395
396
397
398
399
400
401
402
403
404
405
406
407
VPN
$6,680,958.72
$2,927,331.41
$2,082,453.75
$5,016,327.05
$406,907.67
$2,319,175.57
-$1,068,518.44
-$970,206.84
-$2,380,657.79
$7,260,923.79
-$3,055,173.04
-$3,446,758.76
$6,813,494.35
$5,127,987.30
$4,240,415.07
$4,254,289.84
-$4,097,977.43
$7,100,701.09
-$4,627,743.24
$2,940,230.36
$1,174,167.18
-$231,261.03
$5,958,577.81
$4,223,993.27
$6,465,975.12
-$1,650,332.90
$3,834,124.77
$4,516,544.64
$6,040,514.90
-$1,011,738.40
-$2,003,630.85
-$617,744.70
$2,528,714.64
$2,421,106.38
-$2,437,300.88
-$4,451,665.30
$4,932,813.54
$3,961,494.50
-$271,911.05
$740,652.70
$5,358,357.81
$5,163,909.18
-$4,549,607.50
$181,340.64
$6,728,789.31
$714,525.59
-$3,131,810.53
$6,428,689.28
$822,910.87
$1,375,863.92
$3,305,914.35
TIR
9.95%
8.70%
8.47%
9.42%
7.99%
8.53%
7.60%
7.62%
7.25%
10.09%
7.10%
7.01%
9.92%
9.41%
9.12%
9.14%
6.89%
10.01%
6.73%
8.74%
8.20%
7.82%
9.64%
9.13%
9.86%
7.45%
8.99%
9.19%
9.68%
7.62%
7.36%
7.72%
8.59%
8.52%
7.26%
6.78%
9.38%
9.05%
7.81%
8.09%
9.40%
9.47%
6.74%
7.93%
9.93%
8.07%
7.08%
9.82%
8.10%
8.25%
8.78%
PR
18 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
19 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
N/A
N/A
18 Aos
N/A
N/A
18 Aos
19 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
18 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
19 Aos
20 Aos
18 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
19 Aos
N/A
N/A
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
19 Aos
19 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
18 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
18 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
TRM
8.90%
8.31%
8.21%
8.69%
7.97%
8.24%
7.74%
7.77%
7.59%
8.97%
7.50%
7.44%
8.93%
8.67%
8.52%
8.55%
7.37%
8.95%
7.29%
8.36%
8.07%
7.87%
8.79%
8.54%
8.87%
7.71%
8.47%
8.55%
8.82%
7.77%
7.64%
7.82%
8.29%
8.23%
7.57%
7.31%
8.65%
8.48%
7.86%
8.02%
8.68%
8.68%
7.32%
7.93%
8.90%
8.00%
7.48%
8.86%
8.02%
8.12%
8.37%
VPN
$3,938,830.23
$6,726,327.14
$4,035,225.30
$5,559,178.25
$973,454.89
$4,811,651.88
$987,810.11
$3,692,848.66
$5,114,943.61
$4,018,424.10
-$432,299.17
-$5,086,495.57
-$1,799,130.20
$2,497,121.06
$3,137,929.90
-$352,059.76
$2,197,512.22
$6,161,242.16
$3,774,237.71
$583,731.95
$2,010,979.47
$3,743,561.90
$3,915,047.58
$5,904,872.36
$4,114,294.22
$2,153,033.08
$2,214,245.41
$1,665,513.68
$4,376,117.67
-$1,355,722.94
-$84,100.84
$5,438,008.07
-$2,153,063.98
$1,766,427.49
-$490,080.55
-$3,538,935.02
$2,239,411.72
$1,629,015.18
$1,116,410.48
-$1,555,044.57
$3,217,267.48
-$2,894,575.67
$2,741,487.00
-$637,498.87
$5,356,016.09
$4,151,202.89
-$5,553,746.99
-$569,995.11
-$1,417,150.30
-$1,350,917.96
$2,925,807.08
TIR
9.05%
9.91%
9.06%
9.48%
8.14%
9.30%
8.15%
8.95%
9.39%
9.00%
7.76%
6.60%
7.40%
8.61%
8.76%
7.79%
8.49%
9.72%
8.94%
8.04%
8.42%
8.95%
9.01%
9.67%
9.06%
8.48%
8.52%
8.36%
9.19%
7.52%
7.86%
9.53%
7.32%
8.38%
7.74%
6.98%
8.53%
8.34%
8.19%
7.47%
8.81%
7.18%
8.66%
7.71%
9.51%
9.08%
6.48%
7.73%
7.49%
7.50%
8.69%
PR
20 Aos
18 Aos
20 Aos
19 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
19 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
N/A
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
19 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
19 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
N/A
19 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
N/A
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
N/A
19 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
20 Aos
TRM
8.49%
8.90%
8.48%
8.70%
8.05%
8.61%
8.05%
8.46%
8.68%
8.47%
7.86%
7.24%
7.66%
8.28%
8.33%
7.84%
8.22%
8.81%
8.42%
8.00%
8.17%
8.47%
8.49%
8.78%
8.50%
8.23%
8.24%
8.16%
8.55%
7.74%
7.90%
8.73%
7.63%
8.15%
7.84%
7.44%
8.23%
8.14%
8.06%
7.69%
8.39%
7.53%
8.30%
7.84%
8.70%
8.51%
7.16%
7.83%
7.70%
7.73%
8.35%
Corridas
459
460
461
462
463
464
465
466
467
468
469
470
471
472
473
474
475
476
477
478
479
480
481
482
483
484
485
486
487
488
489
490
491
492
493
494
495
496
497
498
499
500
VPN
$5,359,425.83
$966,755.49
$36,461.45
$6,358,633.14
$236,094.41
$3,741,222.20
$7,316,409.15
$1,838,871.44
$1,809,377.08
$1,054,869.42
$2,242,275.45
$3,384,734.65
$3,443,165.03
$6,659,467.67
-$119,266.61
$2,471,902.25
-$3,714,171.92
$3,635,584.00
$4,722,074.45
-$2,182,671.08
-$1,842,711.33
$1,959,198.54
$4,604,213.87
-$3,918,828.65
$4,984,195.37
-$240,698.71
$3,690,015.40
$3,635,424.67
$2,300,615.97
$5,939,569.90
-$1,050,345.99
$652,123.00
-$245,128.44
-$3,316,125.77
$3,055,135.89
$5,666,667.85
$6,038,064.65
$4,516,176.51
$3,910,542.81
$3,603,856.90
$1,183,143.31
-$2,269,792.27
TIR
9.44%
8.15%
7.89%
9.82%
7.94%
8.92%
10.04%
8.40%
8.38%
8.17%
8.52%
8.82%
8.88%
9.87%
7.85%
8.58%
6.95%
8.94%
9.27%
7.30%
7.41%
8.43%
9.20%
6.91%
9.38%
7.82%
8.99%
8.92%
8.53%
9.68%
7.60%
8.06%
7.81%
7.04%
8.74%
9.60%
9.65%
9.26%
9.00%
8.93%
8.20%
7.28%
PR
19 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
19 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
18 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
18 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
19 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
19 Aos
N/A
20 Aos
N/A
N/A
20 Aos
19 Aos
19 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
20 Aos
N/A
TRM
8.67%
8.05%
7.90%
8.85%
7.93%
8.44%
8.99%
8.19%
8.19%
8.05%
8.26%
8.39%
8.41%
8.89%
7.88%
8.28%
7.42%
8.44%
8.59%
7.60%
7.66%
8.17%
8.57%
7.40%
8.66%
7.89%
8.45%
8.44%
8.22%
8.80%
7.76%
8.00%
7.87%
7.46%
8.33%
8.76%
8.77%
8.60%
8.48%
8.43%
8.07%
7.59%
94
Los datos estadsticos no son otra cosa que el producto de las observaciones
efectuadas, para este ejercicio se realizar el anlisis de una sola corrida, mediante el cual
se obtendrn valores y razones determinantes para verificar el comportamiento del
proyecto, asimismo servir para poder graficar el Histograma de la serie de datos, el cual
sirve para comparar las magnitudes representadas en cada intervalo de clase.
Tabla 43
Anlisis de una Corrida
Media
Error tpico
Mediana
Moda
Desviacin estndar
Varianza de la muestra
Curtosis
Coeficiente de asimetra
Rango
Mnimo
Mximo
Suma
Cuenta
Nivel de confianza(95.0%)
PR N/A
PR 20 Aos
PR 19 Aos
PR 18 Aos
PR 17 Aos
PR 16 Aos
PR 15 Aos
Suma
VPN
TIR
$1,491,289.40
8.34%
$138,844.68
0.04%
$1,751,306.21
8.36%
#N/A
#N/A
3104661.492 0.008739938
9.63892E+12 7.63865E-05
-0.77384427 -0.88558962
-0.297803417 -0.118197809
13265612.48
-$5,949,203.33
$7,316,409.15
$745,644,698.89
500
$272,792.22
168.00
263.00
54.00
15.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.68%
6.41%
10.09%
4170.46%
500
0.08%
TIRM
8.13%
0.02%
8.15%
#N/A
0.00443781
1.96942E-05
-0.860858527
-0.185817044
1.89%
7.10%
8.99%
4066.14%
500
0.04%
33.60%
52.60%
10.80%
3.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
500
95
Tabla 45
Histograma de una Corrida
C la se
F recu en cia
-$5,949,203.33
0.20%
% a cu m u la d o
0.20%
-$5,346,220.95
1.00%
1.20%
-$4,743,238.56
1.20%
2.40%
-$4,140,256.18
12
2.40%
4.80%
-$3,537,273.79
13
2.60%
7.40%
-$2,934,291.41
13
2.60%
10.00%
-$2,331,309.02
17
3.40%
13.40%
-$1,728,326.64
18
3.60%
17.00%
-$1,125,344.25
24
4.80%
21.80%
-$522,361.86
30
6.00%
27.80%
$80,620.52
33
6.60%
34.40%
$683,602.91
20
4.00%
38.40%
$1,286,585.29
38
7.60%
46.00%
$1,889,567.68
28
5.60%
51.60%
$2,492,550.06
31
6.20%
57.80%
$3,095,532.45
32
6.40%
64.20%
$3,698,514.84
36
7.20%
71.40%
$4,301,497.22
35
7.00%
78.40%
$4,904,479.61
31
6.20%
84.60%
$5,507,461.99
27
5.40%
90.00%
$6,110,444.38
29
5.80%
95.80%
$6,713,426.76
15
3.00%
98.80%
y m ay o r...
1.20%
100.00%
Histograma
40
120.00%
35
100.00%
30
80.00%
20
60.00%
15
40.00%
10
20.00%
Frecuencia
y mayor...
$6,713,426.76
$6,110,444.38
$5,507,461.99
$4,904,479.61
$4,301,497.22
$3,698,514.84
$3,095,532.45
$2,492,550.06
$1,889,567.68
$683,602.91
Clase
$1,286,585.29
$80,620.52
-$522,361.86
-$1,125,344.25
-$1,728,326.64
-$2,331,309.02
-$2,934,291.41
-$3,537,273.79
-$4,140,256.18
-$4,743,238.56
0.00%
-$5,346,220.95
0
-$5,949,203.33
Frecuencia
25
% acumulado
96
El ltimo paso para la simulacin ser realizar una tabla en la cual se coloquen los
valores de 30 corridas diferentes, es decir, un total de 15,000 escenarios aleatorios con los
cuales se podr calcular el intervalo de confianza para el Valor Presente Neto, mediante el
cual se establecern los lmites superior e inferior del ejercicio, logrando con esto tener una
proyeccin mas confiable del proyecto y poder tomar as una mejor decisin acerca de la
factibilidad del proyecto.
Tabla 44
Concentrado de 30 Corridas
Corridas
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
VPN
$1,462,680.34
$1,525,191.67
$1,377,469.90
$1,710,832.71
$1,263,606.02
$1,546,594.17
$1,270,292.91
$1,480,729.51
$1,573,180.61
$1,757,823.81
$1,573,299.60
$1,402,913.75
$1,161,214.71
$1,366,143.88
$1,631,668.01
Corridas
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Promedio
Desviacin Estandar
VPN
$ 1,621,666.19
$ 1,389,388.75
$ 1,636,926.02
$ 1,290,016.05
$ 1,767,565.53
$ 1,517,550.94
$ 1,078,734.95
$ 1,680,745.40
$ 1,525,272.67
$ 1,585,749.60
$ 1,358,362.83
$ 1,256,817.63
$ 1,223,059.92
$ 1,445,491.43
$ 1,443,123.58
$ 1,464,137.10
$ 177,410.27
Intervalo de confianza
Nivel de confianza
Media
$1,464,137.10
95%
Desv. Est.
$177,410.27
L(+)
$1,469,161.15
L(-)
$1,459,113.06
97
CONCLUSIONES
98
99