ESC PROB VAN PROB*VAN PROB*(VAN-E(VAN))^2

OPTIMISTA 25% 1,300 325 148,225

NORMAL 40% 600 240 1,960
PESIMISTA 35% -100 -35 138,915
E(VAN) ---> 530 289,100 <--- VAR(VAN)
538 <--- DE(VAN)

CV 101% <--- DE(VAN)/ABS(E(VAN))

PROBABILIDAD DE GANAR ---> P(VAN>0) ---> 1-DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.N

PROBABILIDAD DE PERDER ---> P(VAN<0) ---> DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.N
Z = (VAN - E(VAN))/DE(VAN)

EXPORTACIÓN ALCACHOFAS

P( VAN < 0 ) =

P( Z < -0.9857 ) =
--- VAR(VAN)
--- DE(VAN)

--- DE(VAN)/ABS(E(VAN))

-DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.N
ISTR.NORM.ESTAND.N

16.2%
E(VAN) 374.8
VAR VAN 268,446.1

CV 1.38 <--- DE(VAN)/ABS(E(VAN))

N PROY 3 AÑOS
VAN R 1,000

π 1-3 5%
VAN N 1,000

VAN NOM = VAN REAL

 R=N
AÑO BASE
0 1 2 3 4
π 3% 3% 3% 3%
FACTOR INF 1.0300 1.0609 1.0927 1.1255
(1+π1) (1+π1)(1+π2)

FCN -280 160 185 197 248

FCR -280 180 220

WACC N 15%
VAN N 269.9
VIABLE
BETA DES 1.7 BETA DES 1.7

DEUDA 120 MM D/E 0.33 <--- PROY

PAT 360 MM IR = TAX 29.50%
BETA APAL 2.10
IR = TAX 29.50%
COK 11.60%
RFA 3%
RMH - RFH 3.50%

RP 125 PBS
RP 1.25%

TASA INT 12%

BETA DES = BETA APAL/(1 + D/E*(1 - TAX))

BETA APAL = BETA DES*(1 + D/E*(1 - TAX))
COK = RFA + BETA APAL*(RMH - RFH) + RP
 1 - TAX
FUENTE MONTO % COSTO ESCUDO WACC
DEUDA 120 25% 12.0% 71% 2.12%
PAT 360 75% 11.60% 8.70%
E+D 480 100% 10.81%

COSTO DE LA DEUDA ---> TASA INT

COSTO DEL PATRIMONIO ---> COK
AF 280,000
VIDA ÚTIL 4 AÑOS

VM4 0 π
FACTOR INF
EBIT 1 N 110,000
1RA OPC
G 2+ R 0% G 2+ R
G 2+ N
π 1-4 3%
EBIT N
COK R 12% IMPUESTOS 29.5%
DEP
IR = TAX 29.50% INV AF
VRN AF
SI LA D=0, ENTONCES WACC = COK FCL N
COK
FACTOR COK
VP=FCL/FACTOR COK

2DA OPC
EBIT N
EBIT R
IMPUESTOS 29.5%
DEP
INV AF
VRN AF
FCL R
 R=N
AÑO BASE
0 1 2 3 4 AF
3% 3% 3% 3% V ADQ 280,000
1.0300 1.0609 1.0927 1.1255 VIDA ÚTIL 4
DEP LR N 70,000
1RA OPCIÓN DEP ACUM 4 N 280,000
0% 0% 0%
3% 3% 3% VM4 R 0
VL4 N 0
110,000 113,300 116,699 120,200
-32,450 -33,424 -34,426 -35,459 EN REALES
70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 VM4 R 0
-280,000 VL4 R 0
0 VRN4 R 0
-280,000 147,550 149,877 152,273 154,741
15.36% 15.36% 15.36% 15.36% EN NOMINALES
1.1536 1.3308 1.5352 1.7710 VM4 N 0
127,904 112,622 99,187 87,374 VL4 N 0
VRN4 N 0
COK R 12%

COK 1 N 15.36%
COK 2 N 15.36%
COK 3 N 15.36%
COK 4 N 15.36%

VAN N 147,088

2DA OPCIÓN
110,000
106,796 106,796 106,796 106,796
-31,505 -31,505 -31,505 -31,505
67,961 65,982 64,060 62,194
-280,000
0
-280,000 143,252 141,273 139,351 137,485

COK R 12%
VAN R 147,088
AÑOS
<--- VADQ/VIDA ÚTIL

<--- DATO
<--- VADQ - DEP ACUM

<--- VM - (VM - VL)*TAX

<--- VM - (VM - VL)*TAX

N PROY 5 AÑOS BETA DES 1.02

%DEUDA 50% INV INICIAL D/E 1 <--- PROY

%PAT 50% INV INICIAL IR = TAX 29.50%
BETA APAL 1.73
TASA INT 10% TEA
COK 19.2%
IR = TAX 29.50%

EMP TEXTILES EN USA

BETA APAL 1.12
D/E 11%
IR = TAX 8.50%

RFA 2.50% <--- 5 AÑOS

RMH - RFH 9%
RP 110 BPS
RP 1.1%

BETA DES = BETA APAL/(1 + D/E*(1 - TAX))

BETA APAL = BETA DES*(1 + D/E*(1 - TAX))
COK = RFA + BETA APAL*(RMH - RFH) + RP
 D 1.5
E 1
TASA INT 10%
IR = TAX 30%

RFA 3.50%
RP 2.50%
PRM H 5%

COV X 0.008
DE M 5.50%

BETA DES = BETA APAL/(1 + D/E*(1 - TAX))

BETA APAL = BETA DES*(1 + D/E*(1 - TAX))
COK = RFA + BETA APAL*(RMH - RFH) + RP
%DEUDA=D/(E+D)
BETA APAL 2.64 %PAT=E/(E+D)

COK 19.22% FUENTE MONTO %

WACC 11.89% DEUDA 60%
PAT 40%
E+D 100%

COSTO DE LA DEUDA ---> TASA INT

COSTO DEL PATRIMONIO ---> COK
%DEUDA=D/(E+D)
%PAT=E/(E+D)
1 - TAX
COSTO ESCUDO WACC
10.0% 70.0% 4.20%
19.22% 7.69%
11.89%
 D 1.5
E 1
TASA INT 10%
IR = TAX 30%

RFA 3.50%
RP 2.50%
PRM H 5%

COV X 0.008
DE M 5.50%

BETA DES = BETA APAL/(1 + D/E*(1 - TAX))

BETA APAL = BETA DES*(1 + D/E*(1 - TAX))
COK = RFA + BETA APAL*(RMH - RFH) + RP
%DEUDA=D/(E+D)
BETA APAL 2.64 %PAT=E/(E+D)

COK 19.22% FUENTE MONTO %

WACC 11.89% DEUDA 60%
PAT 40%
E+D 100%

COSTO DE LA DEUDA ---> TASA INT

COSTO DEL PATRIMONIO ---> COK
%DEUDA=D/(E+D)
%PAT=E/(E+D)
1 - TAX
COSTO ESCUDO WACC
10.0% 70.0% 4.20%
19.22% 7.69%
11.89%
TASA INT 10% TEA
DEUDA 60% INV INICIAL FUENTE MONTO
PAT 40% INV INICIAL DEUDA
PAT
RFA 3.50% E+D
PRM H 6%
COK 12.50% <--- CAPM COSTO DE LA DEUDA ---> TASA INT
COSTO DEL PATRIMONIO ---> COK
IR = TAX 29.50%

BETA DES = BETA APAL/(1 + D/E*(1 - TAX))

BETA APAL = BETA DES*(1 + D/E*(1 - TAX))
COK = RFA + BETA APAL*(RMH - RFH) + RP

BETA APAL 1.50

 1 - TAX
% COSTO ESCUDO WACC
60% 10.0% 70.5% 4.23%
40% 12.50% 5.00%
100% 9.23%

DEUDA ---> TASA INT

TRIMONIO ---> COK
N PROY 3 AÑOS EQ
V ADQ 140,000
EQ 140,000 TASA DEP 25%
TASA DEP 25% ANUAL DEP LR N 35,000
VM3 R 30,000 DEP ACUM 3 N 105,000

IR = TAX 30% VM3 R 30,000

VL3 N 35,000
π 1-3 4%
FACTOR INF 3 1.1249

EN NOMINALES:
VM3 N 33,746
VL3 N 35,000
VRN 3 N 34,122
ANUAL
<--- VADQ*TDIV

<--- DATO
<--- VADQ - DEP ACUM

<--- VM - (VM - VL)*TAX

 N PROY 3 AÑOS ER 0
TASA DEP 20% ANUAL EBIT
AF 200,000 GF
UAI
VM3 100,000 <--- NO INC UN IR
UN
UN 1 96,250
UN 2 157,500 FC 0
UN 3 246,750 EBIT
IMPUESTOS 30%
CTN REQ 1 10,000 DEP
CTN REQ 2 15,000 INV AF -200,000
CTN REQ 3 20,000 VRN AF
INV CTN -10,000
FINANCIAMIENTO FCL -210,000
PRÉSTAMO 150,000
PLAZO 3 AÑOS 0
TASA INT 15% TEA CTN REQ
AMORT CTE INV CTN -10,000
IZQ - DER
TAX 30%
0
VAN FIN 275,784 FCL -210,000
PRÉSTAMO 150,000
PTO VISTA FC R AMORT
* ECO O PROY FCL WACC INTERÉS
FIN O ACC FCA COK EF=INT*TAX
FCA -60,000

DATOS > ANALISIS DE HIPOTESIS > BUSCAR OB

LUEGO DE LA RENEGOCIAC

0
FCL -210,000
PRÉSTAMO 150,000
AMORT
INTERÉS
EF=INT*TAX
FCA -60,000
 1 2 3
160,000 240,000 360,000 VENTA AF ---> IF = VM - VL
-22,500 -15,000 -7,500
137,500 225,000 352,500
<--- 0.3UAI
96,250 157,500 246,750 <--- 0.7UAI

1 2 3
160,000 240,000 360,000
-48,000 -72,000 -108,000
40,000 40,000 40,000 AF
V ADQ 200,000
94,000 DEP LR 40,000 <--- VADQ*TASA DEP
-5,000 -5,000 20,000 DEP ACUM 3 120,000
147,000 203,000 406,000
VM3 100,000 <--- DATO
1 2 3 VL3 80,000 <--- VADQ - DEP ACUM
10,000 15,000 20,000 VRN3 94,000 <--- VM - (VM - VL)*TAX
-5,000 -5,000 20,000 0

1 2 3
147,000 203,000 406,000
CRONOGRAMA DE PAGOS
-50,000 -50,000 -50,000 PRÉSTAMO 150,000
-22,500 -15,000 -7,500 AMORT 50,000
6,750 4,500 2,250
81,250 142,500 350,750 15%
N DEUDA I AMORT + INT =
COK 25.00% 1 150,000 50,000 22,500
VAN FIN 275,784 2 100,000 50,000 15,000
3 50,000 50,000 7,500
HIPOTESIS > BUSCAR OBJETIVO

UEGO DE LA RENEGOCIACIÓN

1 2 3 CRONOGRAMA DE PAGOS
147,000 203,000 406,000 PRÉSTAMO 150,000

0 0 -150,000 15%
-22,500 -22,500 -22,500 N DEUDA I AMORT + INT =
6,750 6,750 6,750 1 150,000 0 22,500
131,250 187,250 240,250 2 150,000 0 22,500
3 150,000 150,000 22,500
COK 25.00%
VAN FIN 287,848
CUOTA
72,500
65,000
57,500

CUOTA
22,500
22,500
172,500
BETA 2.56

N BETA 3.83
N COK 36.50%
 N PROY 3 AÑOS ER 0
TASA DEP 20% ANUAL EBIT
AF 200,000 GF
UAI
VM3 100,000 <--- NO INC UN IR
UN
UN 1 96,250
UN 2 157,500 FC 0
UN 3 246,750 EBIT
IMPUESTOS 30%
CTN REQ 1 10,000 DEP
CTN REQ 2 15,000 INV AF -200,000
CTN REQ 3 20,000 VRN AF
INV CTN -10,000
FINANCIAMIENTO FCL -210,000
PRÉSTAMO 150,000
PLAZO 3 AÑOS 0
TASA INT 15% TEA CTN REQ
AMORT CTE INV CTN -10,000
IZQ - DER
TAX 30%
0
VAN FIN 275,784 FCL -210,000
PRÉSTAMO 150,000
PTO VISTA FC R AMORT
* ECO O PROY FCL WACC INTERÉS
FIN O ACC FCA COK EF=INT*TAX
FCA -60,000

DATOS > ANALISIS DE HIPOTESIS > BUSCAR OB

SI EL BETA DEL ACCIONISTA SE IN

0
FCA -60,000
 1 2 3
160,000 240,000 360,000 VENTA AF ---> IF = VM - VL
-22,500 -15,000 -7,500
137,500 225,000 352,500
<--- 0.3UAI
96,250 157,500 246,750 <--- 0.7UAI

1 2 3
160,000 240,000 360,000
-48,000 -72,000 -108,000
40,000 40,000 40,000 AF
V ADQ 200,000
94,000 DEP LR 40,000 <--- VADQ*TASA DEP
-5,000 -5,000 20,000 DEP ACUM 3 120,000
147,000 203,000 406,000
VM3 100,000 <--- DATO
1 2 3 VL3 80,000 <--- VADQ - DEP ACUM
10,000 15,000 20,000 VRN3 94,000 <--- VM - (VM - VL)*TAX
-5,000 -5,000 20,000 0

1 2 3
147,000 203,000 406,000
CRONOGRAMA DE PAGOS
-50,000 -50,000 -50,000 PRÉSTAMO 150,000
-22,500 -15,000 -7,500 AMORT 50,000
6,750 4,500 2,250
81,250 142,500 350,750 15%
N DEUDA I AMORT + INT =
COK 25.00% 1 150,000 50,000 22,500
VAN FIN 275,784 2 100,000 50,000 15,000
3 50,000 50,000 7,500
HIPOTESIS > BUSCAR OBJETIVO

ETA DEL ACCIONISTA SE INC EN 50%

1 2 3
81,250 142,500 350,750

COK 36.50%
VAN FIN 213,915
CUOTA
72,500
65,000
57,500
FINANCIAMIENTO CRONOGRAMA DE PAGOS
PRÉSTAMO 100,000 PRÉSTAMO 100,000
PLAZO 3 AÑOS CUOTA 39,858.00
TASA INT 9.5% TEA
CUOTA CTE
N DEUDA I
TAX 29.5% 1 100,000.00
2 69,642.00
3 36,400.00

AMORT = CUOTA - INT

A DE PAGOS

<--- -PAGO

9.5%
AMORT + INT = CUOTA EF=INT*TAX
30,358.00 9,500.00 39,858.00 2,802.50
33,242.01 6,615.99 39,858.00 1,951.72
36,400.00 3,458.00 39,858.00 1,020.11
 FINANCIAMIENTO 0 1
PRÉSTAMO 100 FCL -266 138
TASA INT 10% PRÉSTAMO 100
PLAZO 4 AÑOS AMORT -25
AMORT CTE INTERÉS -10
EF=INT*TAX 3
IR = TAX 30% FCA -166 106

BETA DES 1.35 BETA DES 1.35

RFA 2%
RMH - RFH 13% DEUDA 100
RP 1.88% PAT 166
D/E 0.60
PTO VISTA FC R TAX 30%
* ECO O PROY FCL WACC BETA APAL 1.92
FIN O ACC FCA COK COK 28.83%

BETA DES = BETA APAL/(1 + D/E*(1 - TAX))

BETA APAL = BETA DES*(1 + D/E*(1 - TAX))
COK = RFA + BETA APAL*(RMH - RFH) + RP
2 3 4 5 CRONOGRAMA DE PAGOS
141 148 151 236 PRÉSTAMO 100
AMORT 25 <--- P/N
-25 -25 -25
-8 -5 -3 10%
2 2 1 N DEUDA I AMORT + INT =
111 120 124 236 1 100 25 10
2 75 25 8
VAN ACC 150.50 3 50 25 5
4 25 25 3

AMORT = CUOTA - INT

CUOTA
35
33 PG AMORT INT
30 * PARCIAL NO HAY SI HAY
28 TOTAL NO HAY NO HAY

PG TOTAL ---> CAPITALIZAR EL INT

CRONOGRAMA DE PAGOS
PRÉSTAMO 100
AMORT 55 <--- P/N

10%
N DEUDA I AMORT + INT = CUOTA
1 100 0 0 0 10
2 110 0 11 11
3 110 55 11 66
4 55 55 6 61
N PROY 4 AÑOS R=N
AÑO BASE
AF 150,000 0
VIDA ÚTIL 4 AÑOS π
VM4 R 15,000 FACTOR INF

V1R 410,000
V2R 495,000 FC R 0
V3R 580,000 VENTAS
V4R 600,000 C VAR 35%
C FIJOS
C VAR R 35% VENTAS R DEP
C FIJOS R 24,000 EBIT
IMPUESTOS 30%
CTN R 10% VENTAS R DEP
INV AF -150,000
IR = TAX 30% VRN AF
INV CTN -41,000
π 1-4 4% FCL -191,000
WACC R 14%
0
CTN REQ 10%
INV CTN -41,000
IZQ - DER

FC N 0
…
DEP
 AF
V ADQ 150,000
1 2 3 4 VIDA ÚTIL 4 AÑOS
4% 4% 4% 4% DEP LR N 37,500 <--- VADQ/VIDA ÚTIL
1.0400 1.0816 1.1249 1.1699 DEP ACUM 4 N 150,000
(1+π1) (1+π1)(1+π2) (1+π1)(1+π2)(1+π3)
VM4 R 15,000 <--- DATO
1 2 3 4 VL4 N 0 <--- VADQ - DEP ACUM
410,000 495,000 580,000 600,000
-143,500 -173,250 -203,000 -210,000
-24,000 -24,000 -24,000 -24,000
-36,058 -34,671 -33,337 -32,055 VM4 R 15,000
206,442 263,079 319,663 333,945 VL4 R 0
-61,933 -78,924 -95,899 -100,183 VRN4 R 10,500 <--- VM - (VM - VL)*TAX
36,058 34,671 33,337 32,055

10,500
-8,500 -8,500 -2,000 60,000
172,067 210,326 255,101 336,317

1 2 3 4
41,000 49,500 58,000 60,000
-8,500 -8,500 -2,000 60,000 0

WACC R 14%
VAN R 493,088

1 2 3 4

-37,500 -37,500 -37,500 -37,500

--- VADQ/VIDA ÚTIL

--- VADQ - DEP ACUM

--- VM - (VM - VL)*TAX

N PROY 4 AÑOS R=N
AÑO BASE
AF 150,000 0
VIDA ÚTIL 4 AÑOS π
DEP LR FACTOR INF
VM4 R 15,000

V1R 410,000 FC R 0
V2R 495,000 VENTAS
V3R 580,000 CVAR 35%
V4R 600,000 CF
DEP
CVAR R 35% VENTAS EBIT
CF R 24,000 IMPUESTOS 30%
DEP
INV CTN R 10% VENTAS INV AF -150,000
VRN AF
IR = TAX 30% INV CTN -41,000
FCL -191,000
π 1-4 6%
0
WACC N 14% CTN REQ 10%
INV CTN -41,000
IZQ - DER

0
FCL R -191,000
 1 2 3 4 AF
6% 6% 6% 6% V ADQ 150,000
1.0600 1.1236 1.1910 1.2625 VIDA ÚTIL 4 AÑOS
(1+π1) (1+π1)(1+π2) (1+π1)(1+π2)(1+π3) DEP LR N 37,500 <--- VADQ/VIDA ÚTIL
DEP ACUM 4 N 150,000
1 2 3 4
410,000 495,000 580,000 600,000 VM4 R 15,000 <--- DATO
-143,500 -173,250 -203,000 -210,000 VL4 N 0 <--- VADQ - DEP ACUM
-24,000 -24,000 -24,000 -24,000
-35,377 -33,375 -31,486 -29,704 VM4 R 15,000
207,123 264,375 321,514 336,296 VL4 R 0
-62,137 -79,313 -96,454 -100,889 VRN4 R 10,500 <--- VM - (VM - VL)*TAX
35,377 33,375 31,486 29,704

10,500
-8,500 -8,500 -2,000 60,000
171,863 209,937 254,546 335,611

1 2 3 4
41,000 49,500 58,000 60,000
-8,500 -8,500 -2,000 60,000 0

1 2 3 4
171,863 209,937 254,546 335,611

WACC R 14%
VAN R 491,817
--- VADQ/VIDA ÚTIL

--- VADQ - DEP ACUM

--- VM - (VM - VL)*TAX

CONST 500 <--- AÑO 0 INVERSIONES
VIDA ÚTIL 3 AÑOS 0
VENTAS
EQ 1,800 <--- AÑO 1 C VAR 40%
VIDA ÚTIL 3 AÑOS C FIJOS
DEP CONST
V 1 DE OPE 1,200 DEP EQ
V 2 DE OPE 1,680 EBIT
V 3 DE OPE 2,352 IMPUESTOS 15%
DEP CONST
FC5 1,100 DEP EQ
G 5+ 2% INV CONST -500
INV EQ
C VAR 40% VENTAS FCL -500
CF 300 VT
FCL + VT -500
BETA PROY 1.5
RFA 4.50%
RM 11.50%
RP 3.10%

IR = TAX 15%

DEUDA 0
WACC = COK

BETA DES = BETA APAL/(1 + D/E*(1 - TAX))

BETA APAL = BETA DES*(1 + D/E*(1 - TAX))
COK = RFA + BETA APAL*(RMH - RFH) + RP

BETA APAL 1.5

COK 18.10% <--- WACC

INVERSIONES
1 2 3 4 5 CONST
1,200 1,680 2,352 V ADQ 500
-480 -672 -941 VIDA ÚTIL 3 AÑOS
-300 -300 -300 DEP LR 167 <--- VADQ/VIDA ÚTIL
-167 -167 -167
-600 -600 -600 EQ
-347 -59 345 V ADQ 1,800
52 9 -52 VIDA ÚTIL 3 AÑOS
167 167 167 DEP LR 600 <--- VADQ/VIDA ÚTIL
600 600 600

-1,800
-1,800 472 717 1,060 1,100
6,969 <--- [FCL*(1+G)]/(R-G)
-1,800 472 717 1,060 8,069

R = WACC 18.10%
VAN ECO 2,806
VIABLE
--- VADQ/VIDA ÚTIL

--- VADQ/VIDA ÚTIL

100 PBS ---> 1%

1 - TAX
FUENTE MONTO % COSTO ESCUDO
DEUDA 30% 12.0% 70%
PAT 70% 16.17%
E+D 100%

COSTO DE LA DEUDA ---> TASA INT

COSTO DEL PATRIMONIO ---> COK
 N PROY 3 AÑOS EN MM 0
INGRESOS
AF 11 CVAR 85%
VIDA ÚTIL 10 AÑOS GF
VM3 2.86 DEP
EBIT
ING 1 58 IMPUESTOS 30%
ING 2 68 DEP
ING 3 89 INV AF -11.00
VRN AF
CVAR 85% VENTAS INV CTN -4.50
GF 8 FCL -15.50

INV CTN 0 4.5

IR = TAX 30%

BETA DES 1.15

FINANCIAMIENTO
PRÉSTAMO 30% INV INICIAL
TASA INT 12% TEA

RFA 1.545% <--- 3 AÑOS

PRM H 8.90%
RP 132 PBS O BPS
RP 1.32%

BETA DES = BETA APAL/(1 + D/E*(1 - TAX))

BETA APAL = BETA DES*(1 + D/E*(1 - TAX))
COK = RFA + BETA APAL*(RMH - RFH) + RP

DEUDA 30% INV INICIAL

PAT 70% INV INICIAL
D/E 0.43
TAX 30%
BETA APAL 1.50

WACC COK 16.17%

2.52% WACC 13.84%
11.32%
13.84%
1 2 3 AF
58.00 68.00 89.00 V ADQ 11.00
-49.30 -57.80 -75.65 VIDA ÚTIL 10.00
-8.00 -8.00 -8.00 DEP LR 1.10 <--- VADQ/VIDA ÚTIL
-1.10 -1.10 -1.10 DEP ACUM 3 3.30
-0.40 1.10 4.25
0.12 -0.33 -1.28 VM3 2.86 <--- DATO
1.10 1.10 1.10 VL3 7.70 <--- VADQ - DEP ACUM
VRN3 4.31 <--- VM - (VM - VL)*TAX
4.31
4.50 0
0.82 1.87 12.89

WACC 13.84%
VAN -4.6
 1 - TAX
FUENTE MONTO % COSTO ESCUDO WACC
DEUDA 180,000 60% 9% 70% 3.8%
PAT 120,000 40% 11% 4.4%
E+D 300,000 100% 8.2%

COSTO DE LA DEUDA ---> TASA INTERÉS ANTES DE IMPUESTOS

COSTO DEL PAT ---> COK
 D 1.5
E 0
PLAZO 3 AÑOS FCL -300,000
CUOTAS CTE <--- FRANCÉS PRÉSTAMO 180,000
TASA INT 9% TEA AMORT
INTERÉS
IR = TAX 30% EF = INT*TAX
FCA -120,000
COK 11%

PTO VISTA FC R
* ECO O PROY FCL WACC
FIN O ACC FCA COK
 CRONOGRAMA DE PAGOS
1 2 3 4 D = 1.5E
70,250 137,732 139,348 20,000
PRÉSTAMO 180,000
-54,910 -59,852 -65,238 CUOTA 71,110 <--- -PAGO
-16,200 -11,258 -5,871
4,860 3,377 1,761 9%
4,000 70,000 70,000 20,000 N DEUDA I AMORT + INT =
1 180,000 54,910 16,200
WACC 8.2% 2 125,090 59,852 11,258
VAN ECO 7,300 3 65,238 65,238 5,871
VIABLE
AMORT = CUOTA - INT

METODOLOGÍA ALEMANA

PRÉSTAMO 180,000
AMORT 60,000 <--- P/N

9%
N DEUDA I AMORT + INT =
1 180,000 60,000 16,200
2 120,000 60,000 10,800
3 60,000 60,000 5,400

METODOLOGÍA AMERICANA

PRÉSTAMO 180,000
AMORT AL FINAL

9%
N DEUDA I AMORT + INT =
1 180,000 0 16,200
2 180,000 0 16,200
3 180,000 180,000 16,200
CUOTA
71,110
71,110
71,110

CUOTA
76,200
70,800
65,400

CUOTA
16,200
16,200
196,200
 1 - TAX
FUENTE MONTO % COSTO ESCUDO
 DEUDA 50% 10.0% 70%
PAT 50% 9.88%
E+D 100%

COSTO DE LA DEUDA ---> TASA INT

COSTO DEL PATRIMONIO ---> COK
 N PROY 3 AÑOS 0
Q
ACTIVOS 600,000 PV
VIDA ÚTIL 3 AÑOS CV
DEP LR
VM3 0 VENTAS = P*Q
CVAR
Q 1-3 200,000 GF
DEP
PV 10 X UNI EBIT
CV 7 X UNI IMPUESTOS 30%
DEP
GF 300,000 <--- NO DEP INV AF -600,000
VRN AF
FINANCIAMIENTO FCL -600,000
PRÉSTAMO 50% INV INICIAL
PLAZO 3 AÑOS
TASA INT 10% TEA

IR = TAX 30%

RFA 1.50% <--- 3 AÑOS

RP PERÚ 2%
PRM H 5%

INFO DE LA ACCIÓN DE LA EMP

BETA APAL 1.2
D/E 0.75
TAX 20%

BETA DES = BETA APAL/(1 + D/E*(1 - TAX))

BETA APAL = BETA DES*(1 + D/E*(1 - TAX))
COK = RFA + BETA APAL*(RMH - RFH) + RP

INFO DE LA ACCIÓN DE LA EMP

BETA DES 0.75

INFO DEL PROYECTO

DEUDA 50% INV INICIAL
PAT 50% INV INICIAL

D/E 1
TAX 30%
BETA APAL 1.28

WACC COK 9.88%

3.50% WACC 8.44%
4.94%
8.44%
 1 2 3 ACTIVOS
200,000 200,000 200,000 V ADQ 600,000
10 10 10 VIDA ÚTIL 3 AÑOS
7 7 7 DEP LR 200,000 <--- VADQ/VIDA ÚTIL
DEP ACUM 3 600,000
2,000,000 2,000,000 2,000,000
-1,400,000 -1,400,000 -1,400,000 VM3 0 <--- DATO
-300,000 -300,000 -300,000 VL3 0 <--- VADQ - DEP ACUM
-200,000 -200,000 -200,000 VRN3 0 <--- VM - (VM - VL)*TAX
100,000 100,000 100,000
-30,000 -30,000 -30,000
200,000 200,000 200,000

0
270,000 270,000 270,000

WACC 8.44%
VAN 90,360
VIABLE
N PROY 3 AÑOS 0
Q
AF 600,000 PV
VIDA ÚTIL 3 AÑOS CV
DEP LR
NO HAY VALOR DE REC 0
VENTAS = P*Q
Q 200,000 C VAR
PV 10 X UNI GF
CV 7 X UNI DEP
EBIT
GF 250,000 <--- S/DEP IMPUESTOS 30%
DEP
FINANCIAMIENTO INV AF -600,000
DEUDA 50% INV INICIAL VRN AF
PAT 50% INV INICIAL FCL -600,000

PLAZO 3 AÑOS
TASA INT 10% TEA

IR = TAX 30%

RFA 1.50% <--- 3 AÑOS

RP PERÚ 2%
RMH-RFH 5%

ACCIONES DE LA EMP
BETA APAL 1.2
D/E 0.75
TAX 20%

VAN PROY ---> FCL Y WACC

 1 2 3 AF
200,000 200,000 200,000 V ADQ 600,000
10 10 10 VIDA ÚTIL 3 AÑOS
7 7 7 DEP LR 200,000 <--- VADQ/VIDA ÚTIL
DEP ACUM 3 600,000
1 2 3
2,000,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 VM4 0 <--- DATO
-1,400,000 -1,400,000 -1,400,000 VL4 0 <--- VADQ - DEP ACUM
-250,000 -250,000 -250,000 VRN4 0 <--- VM - (VM - VL)*TAX
-200,000 -200,000 -200,000
150,000 150,000 150,000
-45,000 -45,000 -45,000
200,000 200,000 200,000

0
305,000 305,000 305,000

VAN ECO 179,851 BETA DES = BETA APAL/(1 + D/E*(1 - TAX))

VIABLE BETA APAL = BETA DES*(1 + D/E*(1 - TAX))
COK = RFA + BETA APAL*(RMH - RFH) + RP

BETA DES 0.75

D/E 1
IR = TAX 30%
BETA APAL 1.28

COK 9.88%

FUENTE MONTO % COSTO

DEUDA 50% 10.0%
PAT 50% 9.88%
E+D 0 100%

COSTO DE LA DEUDA ---> TASA INT

COSTO DEL PATRIMONIO ---> COK
 1 - TAX
ESCUDO WACC
70% 3.50%
4.94%
8.44%
EXP TEJIDOS DE ALPACA (FLUJOS EN MILES DE SOLES)

R=N
AÑO BASE
0 1 2 3
π 4% 5% 6%
FACTOR INF 1.0400 1.0920 1.1575
(1+π1) (1+π1)(1+π2) (1+π1)(1+π2)(1+π3)

FC EN TÉRMINOS REALES

N PROB 0 1 2 3
PES 20% -100 20 40 55
MOD 40% -100 60 80 100
OPT 40% -100 100 120 150

FC EN TÉRMINOS NOMINALES

N PROB 0 1 2 3
PES 20% -100 21 44 64
MOD 40% -100 62 87 116
OPT 40% -100 104 131 174

WACC N 16%

PROBABILIDAD DE GANAR ---> P(VAN>0) ---> 1-DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.N

PROBABILIDAD DE PERDER ---> P(VAN<0) ---> DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.N
Z = (VAN - E(VAN))/DE(VAN)

P( VAN < 0 ) =

P( Z < -1.4763 ) =
1+π1)(1+π2)(1+π3)

ALT + 94 ^

VAN PROB*VAN PROB*(VAN-E(VAN))^2

-9 -2 3,051
93 37 190
198 79 2,794
E(VAN) ---> 115 6,036 <--- VAR(VAN)
78 <--- DE(VAN)

CV 67.74% <--- DE(VAN)/ABS(E(VAN))

-DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.N
ISTR.NORM.ESTAND.N

6.99%
EN MILES DE USD 0
N PROY 4 AÑOS Q
PV
AF 500 CVAR
VIDA ÚTIL 4 AÑOS
VM4 50 0
VENTAS = P*Q
Q 1-4 27 C VAR
PV 50 X UNI C FIJO
CVAR 25 X UNI DEP
EBIT
CF 300 IMPUESTOS 30%
DEP
INV CTN 10% VENTAS INV AF -500
VRN AF
IR = TAX 30% INV CTN -135
FCL -635
R = WACC 22%

0
CTN REQ 10%
INV CTN -135
IZQ - DER
1 2 3 4 AF
27 27 27 27 V ADQ 500
50 50 50 50 VIDA ÚTIL 4 AÑOS
25 25 25 25 DEP LR 125 <--- VADQ/VIDA ÚTIL
DEP ACUM 4 500
1 2 3 4
1,350 1,350 1,350 1,350 VM4 50 <--- DATO
-675 -675 -675 -675 VL4 0 <--- VADQ - DEP ACUM
-300 -300 -300 -300 VRN4 35 <--- VM - (VM - VL)*TAX
-125 -125 -125 -125
250 250 250 250
-75 -75 -75 -75
125 125 125 125

35
0 0 0 135
300 300 300 470

1 2 3 4
135 135 135 135
0 0 0 135 0
 R = WACC 22%

ESC PROB 0 1 2 3 4
--- VADQ/VIDA ÚTIL OPTIMISTA 20% -635 390 390 390 611
NORMAL 50% -635 300 300 300 470
PESIMISTA 30% -635 210 210 210 329
100%
--- VADQ - DEP ACUM
--- VM - (VM - VL)*TAX

PROBABILIDAD DE GANAR ---> P(VAN>0) ---> 1-DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.N

PROBABILIDAD DE PERDER ---> P(VAN<0) ---> DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.N
Z = (VAN - E(VAN))/DE(VAN)

P( VAN > 0 ) = ?

P( Z > -0.9531 ) = 82.97%

 VAN PROB*VAN PROB*(VAN-E(VAN))^2
437 87 14,818
190 95 306
-58 -17 14,879
E(VAN) ---> 165 30,003 <--- VAR(VAN)
173 <--- DE(VAN)

CV 105% <--- DE(VAN)/ABS(E(VAN))

M.ESTAND.N
R = WACC 13%

MOTOS

ESC PROB 0 1 2 3
OPTIMISTA 30% -900 440 550 660
NORMAL 50% -900 400 500 600
PESIMISTA 20% -900 360 450 540

CAMIONETAS

ESC PROB 0 1 2 3
OPTIMISTA 30% -3,500 1,430 1,760 1,980
NORMAL 50% -3,500 1,300 1,600 1,800
PESIMISTA 20% -3,500 1,170 1,440 1,620
 ^ <--- ALT + 94

VAN PROB*VAN PROB*(VAN-E(VAN))^2

378 113 3,278
261 131 67
145 29 3,264
E(VAN) ---> 273 6,609 <--- VAR(VAN)
81 <--- DE(VAN)

CV 30% <--- DE(VAN)/ABS(E(VAN))

VAN PROB*VAN PROB*(VAN-E(VAN))^2

516 155 32,391
151 75 666
-214 -43 32,258
E(VAN) ---> 187 65,315 <--- VAR(VAN)
256 <--- DE(VAN)

CV 136% <--- DE(VAN)/ABS(E(VAN))

FC S/IGV 0 1 2 3
INGRESOS 110,000 140,000 160,000
C VAR -20,000 -30,000 -40,000
C FIJO -50,000 -50,000 -50,000
…
INV IME -60,000
VRN IME
…

MÓDULO IGV %A 0 1 2 3
IGV INGRESOS 100% -19,800 -25,200 -28,800
IGV C VAR 50% 1,800 2,700 3,600
IGV C FIJO 60% 5,400 5,400 5,400
IGV COMPRA IME 100% 10,800
IGV VENTA IME 100% 0
IGV A PAGAR -12,600 -17,100 -19,800
CRÉDITO FISCAL 10,800 0 0 0
IGV A PAGAR NETO 0 -1,800 -17,100 -19,800
IGV 18%

IME
V ADQ 60,000

VM3 0
VL3
VRN3
 0 1 2 3
π 12% 13% 14%
FACTOR INF 1.1200 1.2656 1.4428
(1+π1) (1+π1)(1+π2) (1+π1)(1+π2)(1+π3)

FC N 0 1 2 3
INGRESOS 280,000 300,000 400,000
GTO OPE -112,000 -154,000 -205,000
DEP -50,000 -50,000 -50,000

FC R 0 1 2 3
INGRESOS 250,000 237,042 277,242
GTO OPE -100,000 -121,681 -142,086
DEP -44,643 -39,507 -34,655
N PROY 4 FC S/IGV
Q
AF 800,000 PV
VIDA ÚTIL 4 AÑOS CVAR
VM4 80,000
VENTAS = P*Q
R = WACC 22% C VAR
IR = TAX 30% CF
DEP
Q1 27,000 EBIT
Q2 31,000 IMPUESTOS 30%
Q3 35,000 DEP
Q4 39,000 INV AF
VRN AF
PV 50 X UNI INV CTN
CVAR 25 X UNI FCL
CF 300,000

CTN 10% VENTAS CTN REQ

INV CTN
IGV 18% IZQ - DER

%A MÓDULO IGV %A
INGRESOS 100% IGV VENTAS 100%
CVAR 100% IGV C VAR 100%
COMPRA AF 100% IGV CF 50%
VTA AF 100% IGV COMPRA AF 100%
CF 50% IGV VENTA AF 100%
IGV A PAGAR
IGV VENTAS ---> (-) CRÉDITO FISCAL
IGV COMPRAS ---> (+) IGV A PAGAR NETO

FC S/IGV
-SUMA(IGV) ---> FLUJO DEL IGV
IGV A PAGAR NETO
FC C/IGV
 0 1 2 3 4 AF
27,000 31,000 35,000 39,000 V ADQ 800,000
50 50 50 50 VIDA ÚTIL 4
25 25 25 25 DEP LR 200,000
DEP ACUM 4 800,000
1,350,000 1,550,000 1,750,000 1,950,000
-675,000 -775,000 -875,000 -975,000 VM4 80,000
-300,000 -300,000 -300,000 -300,000 VL4 0
-200,000 -200,000 -200,000 -200,000 VRN4 56,000
175,000 275,000 375,000 475,000
-52,500 -82,500 -112,500 -142,500
200,000 200,000 200,000 200,000
-800,000
56,000
-135,000 -20,000 -20,000 -20,000 195,000
-935,000 302,500 372,500 442,500 783,500

0 1 2 3 4
135,000 155,000 175,000 195,000
-135,000 -20,000 -20,000 -20,000 195,000 0

0 1 2 3 4
-243,000 -279,000 -315,000 -351,000
121,500 139,500 157,500 175,500
27,000 27,000 27,000 27,000
144,000
-14,400
-94,500 -112,500 -130,500 -162,900
144,000 49,500 0 0 0
0 0 -63,000 -130,500 -162,900

0 1 2 3 4
-935,000 302,500 372,500 442,500 783,500 966,000
-144,000 94,500 112,500 130,500 162,900
0 0 -63,000 -130,500 -162,900
-1,079,000 397,000 422,000 442,500 783,500 966,000
 VRN = VM - (VM - VL)*TAX

AÑOS
<--- VADQ/VIDA ÚTIL
VENTA AF IR VTA AF

<--- DATO IGV VRN = %IGV * VALOR DE MCDO

<--- VADQ - DEP ACUM
<--- VM - (VM - VL)*TAX

MÓDULO IGV 0 1 2
-243,000.0 -279,000.0
121,500.0 139,500.0
27,000.0 27,000.0
144,000.0

IGV A PAGAR 0 -94,500 -112,500

CRÉDITO FISCAL 144,000 0 0
SALDO IGV 144,000 49,500 -63,000
IGV A PAGAR NET 0 0 -63,000
 3 4
-315,000.0 -351,000.0
157,500.0 175,500.0
27,000.0 27,000.0

-14,400.0

-130,500 -162,900
0 0
-130,500 -162,900
-130,500 -162,900
N PROY 4 AÑOS FC S/IGV
VENTAS
VENTAS 1 40,000 C VAR 40%
VENTAS 2 50,000 CF
VENTAS 3 60,000 AMORT INT
VENTAS 4 80,000 EBIT
IMPUESTOS 30%
C VAR 40% VENTAS AMORT INT
C FIJOS 2,000 INV INTANG
INV CTN
INTANGIBLE 10,000 FCL
AMORT INT 2,500
MÓDULO IGV %A
INV CTN 0 4,000 IGV VENTAS 100%
IGV C VAR 50%
IR = TAX 30% IGV C FIJOS 70%
IGV COMPRA INTANG 100%
IGV 18% IGV CTN 50%
IGV A PAGAR
%AFECTO CRÉDITO FISCAL
VENTAS 100% IGV A PAGAR NETO
C VAR 50%
C FIJOS 70% FC C/IGV (CORTO)
INTANGIBLE 100% FC S/IGV
CTN 50% FLUJO DEL IGV
IGV A PAGAR NETO
IGV INGRESOS ---> (-) FC C/IGV
IGV COMPRAS ---> (+)
0 1 2 3 4 INTANGIBLE
40,000 50,000 60,000 80,000 V ADQ 10,000
-16,000 -20,000 -24,000 -32,000 VIDA ÚTIL 4 AÑOS
-2,000 -2,000 -2,000 -2,000 AMORT INT 2,500
-2,500 -2,500 -2,500 -2,500
19,500 25,500 31,500 43,500
-5,850 -7,650 -9,450 -13,050
2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500
-10,000
-4,000 4,000 0
-14,000 16,150 20,350 24,550 36,950 84,000

0 1 2 3 4
-7,200 -9,000 -10,800 -14,400
1,440 1,800 2,160 2,880
252 252 252 252
1,800
360 0 0 0 -360
-5,508 -6,948 -8,388 -11,628
2,160 0 0 0 0
0 -3,348 -6,948 -8,388 -11,628

0 1 2 3 4
-14,000 16,150 20,350 24,550 36,950 84,000
-2,160 5,508 6,948 8,388 11,628 <--- -SUMA(IGV)
0 -3,348 -6,948 -8,388 -11,628
-16,160 18,310 20,350 24,550 36,950 84,000
MÓDULO IGV 0 1
-7,200.0
1,440.0
252.0
1,800.0
360.0 0.0

IGV A PAGAR 0 -5,508

CRÉDITO FISCAL 2,160 0
SALDO IGV 2,160 -3,348
IGV A PAGAR NET 0 -3,348
2 3 4
-9,000.0 -10,800.0 -14,400.0
1,800.0 2,160.0 2,880.0
252.0 252.0 252.0

0.0 0.0 -360.0

-6,948 -8,388 -11,628

0 0 0
-6,948 -8,388 -11,628
-6,948 -8,388 -11,628
FC S/IGV 0 1 2 3 IGV INGRESOS ---> (-)
ACTIVO A -60,000 IGV COMPRAS ---> (+)
ACTIVO B -32,000
ACTIVO C -17,000

INV INICIAL -92,000

CF INV INI 16,560

GV INGRESOS ---> (-)
GV COMPRAS ---> (+)