PROBABILIDAD DE OCURRENCIA DEL CAUDAL MEDIO MENSUAL (m3/s)

PERIODO 1956-2015 [Año hidrológico sin años FEN]

Estación : LIMA Cuenca: RIMAC
Ins ti tuci ón : ANA Río: RIMAC
La ti tud N : 08° 39' 14" Area cuenca : 10156 Km² Codi go :
Longi tud E : 78° 15' 29" Al ti tud : 450 ms nm

RECOLECCION DE DATOS
ENERO FEBRERO MARZO ABRIL MAYO JUNIO JULIO AGOSTO SETIEMBRE OCTUBRE NOVIEMBRE DICIEMBRE Q MAX
1989 545.50 1099.50 1251.70 907.60 153.90 76.20 45.70 29.60 21.40 27.90 24.00 46.80 1251.70
1990 77.20 291.80 124.80 344.60 173.70 68.60 32.20 21.90 16.30 20.10 22.60 27.10 344.60
1991 91.10 49.70 452.00 206.20 103.80 87.20 32.70 21.60 15.50 15.60 22.00 82.20 452.00
1992 137.00 306.40 1378.10 1138.70 889.00 199.90 56.20 32.60 24.00 16.20 18.70 26.40 1378.10

1993 90.60 627.40 974.90 1128.80 395.50 105.70 52.90 34.30 24.10 47.00 38.70 173.00 1128.80
1994 702.80 752.10 637.30 631.00 351.50 105.90 52.20 31.50 21.70 20.30 22.10 81.70 752.10
1995 133.40 370.20 373.70 220.90 115.20 69.90 36.60 22.90 15.10 14.20 25.10 119.80 373.70
1996 184.30 426.80 451.60 222.00 99.90 53.71 35.50 19.80 13.45 15.08 25.10 119.80 451.60
1997 250.15 451.12 714.70 534.60 234.50 119.32 70.12 50.50 36.10 98.60 132.20 914.60 914.60
1998 947.10 1916.00 993.50 1304.90 513.20 190.80 68.00 40.30 32.60 22.30 22.90 24.30 1916.00
1999 110.50 1116.70 1418.80 364.00 334.80 95.10 62.50 42.50 33.30 25.30 23.70 251.00 1418.80
2000 190.80 395.99 813.08 648.31 310.86 102.88 64.46 43.50 33.41 25.92 17.12 40.49 813.08
2001 364.31 409.75 1477.70 871.32 121.91 64.75 43.11 32.88 27.45 16.27 27.64 41.27 1477.70
2002 79.32 366.49 1694.54 1320.09 238.99 75.50 42.34 28.99 19.45 22.47 24.19 82.46 1694.54
2003 75.82 432.90 304.60 253.49 113.74 54.62 35.00 23.23 16.44 18.46 61.71 88.57 432.90
2004 143.93 500.04 408.83 270.40 126.65 58.42 33.10 19.87 35.19 20.45 21.89 56.76 500.04
2005 53.29 237.80 622.62 316.40 114.55 47.74 32.50 18.91 14.91 18.47 19.81 69.72 622.62
2006 157.92 1010.47 700.76 761.34 106.30 52.20 31.57 22.09 16.37 13.62 67.98 300.28 1010.47
2007 219.13 300.32 575.55 436.67 133.43 78.18 44.56 27.66 20.57 16.00 20.77 30.87 575.55
2008 361.21 1401.60 1111.63 1081.94 423.74 112.30 59.37 38.21 29.76 30.99 27.54 42.36 1401.60

2009 564.94 1287.42 969.23 416.44 492.82 84.06 49.40 31.40 24.69 17.90 21.55 50.59 1287.42
2010 290.10 392.60 1001.20 591.00 270.70 70.20 57.50 33.60 25.60 23.70 30.30 73.20 1001.20
2011 115.13 350.40 521.10 458.10 578.10 312.30 150.90 80.40 75.10 30.10 22.40 67.30 578.10
2012 93.40 250.30 450.50 714.10 602.30 424.30 378.60 150.50 130.20 100.10 89.10 120.30 714.10
2013 157.40 321.10 412.40 653.10 854.30 604.30 523.40 501.30 350.10 199.40 140.10 175.52 854.30
2014 117.50 251.10 362.90 222.20 634.10 159.60 53.70 31.80 21.10 22.00 22.50 80.40 634.10
2015 226.20 255.00 1328.30 827.40 290.80 185.50 54.20 35.80 57.50 25.00 27.50 19.10 1328.30
2016 92.50 274.60 856.40 460.20 214.40 75.50 42.20 29.20 19.70 24.20 15.30 72.10 856.40
2017 294.80 593.70 930.80 949.90 590.40 1588.60 71.10 42.50 36.70 32.70 21.40 47.90 1588.60
2018 67.40 1363.70 307.00 357.90 163.30 66.60 36.00 25.00 18.70 15.70 24.00 23.70 1363.70
2019 152.10 665.60 712.40 603.50 138.70 65.60 37.60 23.30 16.90 19.60 38.90 152.80 712.40

METODO DE GUMBEL
N° AÑO Q Q2
1.00 1973 1251.70 1566752.89 DONDE
2.00 1974 344.60 118749.16
3.00 1975 452.00 204304
4.00 1976 1378.10 1899159.61
5.00 1977 1128.80 1274189.44
6.00 1978 752.10 565654.41
7.00 1979 373.70 139651.69
8.00 1980 451.60 203942.56
9.00 1981 914.60 836493.16
10.00 1982 1916.00 3671056
11.00 1983 1418.80 2012993.44
12.00 1984 813.08 661099.086
13.00 1985 1477.70 2183597.29 Qm 29116.72= 970.56
14.00 1986 1694.54 2871465.81 30
15.00 1987 432.90 187402.41
16.00 1988 500.04 250040.002 33868028 − 30 ∗ 108.362
𝜎𝑞 =
17.00 1989 622.62 387655.664 29
18.00 1990 1010.47 1021049.62
19.00 1991 575.55 331257.803
20.00 1992 1401.60 1964482.56 σq 439.7719395
21.00 1993 1287.42 1657450.26
22.00 1994 1001.20 1002401.44 𝑉𝐴𝐿𝑂𝑅𝐸𝑆 𝐷𝐸 𝑌𝑁 𝑌 𝜎𝑁 𝐸𝑁 𝐹𝑈𝑁𝐶𝐼𝑂𝑁 𝐷𝐸 𝑁
23.00 1995 578.10 334199.61
24.00 1996 714.10 509938.81 YN= 0.53622
25.00 1997 854.30 729828.49 σN = 1.11238
26.00 1998 634.10 402082.81
27.00 1999 1328.30 1764380.89 439.7719
𝑄𝑀𝐴𝑋 = 970.56 − ∗ (0.53622 − 𝐿𝑛𝑇)
28.00 2000 856.40 733420.96 1.11238
29.00 2001 1588.60 2523649.96
30.00 2002 1363.70 1859677.69 PARA T 40 AÑOS = 2216.940011 : Φ = 1 -(1/40) 0.975
PARA T 80 AÑOS = 2490.971079 : Φ = 1 -(1/80) 0.9875

∆Q=1.14*38.52/1.1319= 450.6913205

PARA T :
40 215.472+38.8= 2667.631331
80 239.06+38.8= 2941.6624

TOTAL 29116.72 33868027.5

30
METODO DE DE NASH
m Q T T/(T-1) Xi Qx*Xi Q2 xi2
1 216.00 38.000 1.03 -1.936 -418.22 46656.000 3.7490
2 168.50 19.000 1.06 -1.629 -274.53 28392.250 2.6546
3 164.18 12.667 1.09 -1.447 -237.59 26955.072 2.0942
4 162.00 9.500 1.12 -1.316 -213.19 26244.000 1.7319 ∑Xi -22.11
5 151.00 7.600 1.15 -1.213 -183.13 22801.000 1.4708 ∑QiXi -3076.61
6 144.00 6.333 1.19 -1.127 -162.30 20736.000 1.2703 ∑Qi2 487884.92
7 144.00 5.429 1.23 -1.053 -151.70 20736.000 1.1097 ∑Xi2 22.18
8 139.17 4.750 1.27 -0.989 -137.58 19368.289 0.9773
9 133.96 4.222 1.31 -0.930 -124.63 17945.282 0.8656
10 128.61 3.800 1.36 -0.877 -112.84 16540.532 0.7698 Qm 108.36
11 125.49 3.455 1.41 -0.829 -103.97 15747.740 0.6864 Xm -0.597
12 121.14 3.167 1.46 -0.783 -94.85 14674.900 0.6131
13 120.61 2.923 1.52 -0.740 -89.29 14546.772 0.5480

14 118.89 2.714 1.58 -0.700 -83.21 14134.832 0.4899

15 118.00 2.533 1.65 -0.661 -78.05 13924.000 0.4375
16 116.00 2.375 1.73 -0.625 -72.45 13456.000 0.3901
17 115.00 2.235 1.81 -0.589 -67.75 13225.000 0.3471
18 114.49 2.111 1.90 -0.555 -63.52 13107.960 0.3078
19 108.93 2.000 2.00 -0.521 -56.80 11865.745 0.2718
20 108.65 1.900 2.11 -0.489 -53.10 11804.823 0.2389
21 108.58 1.810 2.24 -0.457 -49.59 11789.616 0.2086 𝑎 = 108.36 − 𝑏 ∗ (−0.597)
22 108.00 1.727 2.38 -0.425 -45.92 11664.000 0.1808
23 103.50 1.652 2.53 -0.394 -40.77 10712.250 0.1552 −3076.61 − 37 ∗ 108.36 ∗ −0.597
𝑏=
24 91.50 1.583 2.71 -0.363 -33.20 8372.250 0.1317 22.18 − 37 ∗ −0.597 2
25 83.00 1.520 2.92 -0.332 -27.54 6889.000 0.1101
26 82.00 1.462 3.17 -0.301 -24.64 6724.000 0.0903 b= -75.90015712
27 79.10 1.407 3.45 -0.269 -21.27 6256.810 0.0723
28 78.64 1.357 3.80 -0.237 -18.62 6184.250 0.0560 a= 63.01131842

29 77.37 1.310 4.22 -0.204 -15.76 5986.117 0.0415

30 76.08 1.267 4.75 -0.170 -12.90 5788.166 0.0288 𝑄𝑀𝐴𝑋 = 63.01132 + (−75.9002) ∗ 𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑙𝑜𝑔(𝑡/ 𝑡 − 1 )
31 72.57 1.226 5.43 -0.134 -9.72 5266.405 0.0179
32 72.20 1.188 6.33 -0.096 -6.93 5212.840 0.0092 para T
33 66.98 1.152 7.60 -0.055 -3.69 4486.320 0.0030 40 qmax 211.683756
34 60.35 1.118 9.50 -0.010 -0.59 3642.123 0.0001 80 qmax 234.741275
35 58.14 1.086 12.67 0.042 2.47 3380.260 0.0018
36 39.84 1.056 19.00 0.107 4.25 1587.226 0.0114
37 32.88 1.027 38.00 0.199 6.53 1081.094 0.0394

SXX= 332.0092427
Sqq= 1976854.732
SXQ= -25199.55369

37 4009.35 -22.107 -3076.61 487884.9 22.181958

1976854.73 1 1 −5199.5537 2
∆𝑄 = ±2 ∗ + 𝑋 − −0.597 2 ∗ ∗ ∗ 1976854.73 −
372 ∗ 37 − 1 37 − 2 332.009 332.009

PARA T
40 x -1.95878959 ∆Q= 14.1916124
80 x -2.26257709 ∆Q= 14.8902951

para

40 211.86+14.19 225.875368
80 234.74+14.89 249.63157
 METODO DE DE LEBEDIEV
NUMERO AÑO Q Q/qm-1 (Q/qm-1)2 (Q/qm-1)3
1 1973 115 0.061 0.0038 0.0002
2 1974 79.1 -0.270 0.0729 -0.0197
3 1975 144 0.329 0.1082 0.0356
4 1976 116 0.070 0.0050 0.0004
5 1977 162 0.495 0.2450 0.1213
6 1978 151 0.393 0.1548 0.0609
7 1979 144 0.329 0.1082 0.0356
8 1980 91.5 -0.156 0.0242 -0.0038
9 1981 216 0.993 0.9867 0.9802
10 1982 72.2 -0.334 0.1114 -0.0372
11 1983 108 -0.003 0.0000 0.0000 qm 108.3608108
12 1984 103.5 -0.045 0.0020 -0.0001

13 1985 118 0.089 0.0079 0.0007 ∑(Q/qm-1)2= 4.5502

14 1986 164.18 0.515 0.2654 0.1367 ∑(Q/qm-1)3= 0.5658
15 1987 168.5 0.555 0.3080 0.1709
16 1988 83 -0.234 0.0548 -0.0128
17 1989 58.14 -0.463 0.2148 -0.0995
18 1990 39.84 -0.632 0.3999 -0.2528
19 1991 66.98 -0.382 0.1458 -0.0557
20 1992 32.88 -0.697 0.4852 -0.3380
21 1993 114.49 0.057 0.0032 0.0002
22 1994 133.96 0.236 0.0558 0.0132
23 1995 60.35 -0.443 0.1963 -0.0870
24 1996 108.93 0.005 0.0000 0.0000
25 1997 77.37 -0.286 0.0818 -0.0234
26 1998 120.61 0.113 0.0128 0.0014
27 1999 125.49 0.158 0.0250 0.0039
28 2000 108.58 0.002 0.0000 0.0000
29 2001 108.65 0.003 0.0000 0.0000
30 2002 76.08 -0.298 0.0887 -0.0264
31 2003 128.61 0.187 0.0349 0.0065
32 2004 82 -0.243 0.0592 -0.0144 cv= 0.350681946
33 2005 72.57 -0.330 0.1091 -0.0360 0.5658
34 2006 118.89 0.097 0.0094 0.0009 𝐶𝑠 =
37 ∗ 0.353
35 2007 121.14 0.118 0.0139 0.0016
36 2008 78.64 -0.274 0.0752 -0.0206 Cs= 0.35459226
37 2009 139.17 0.284 0.0808 0.0230

Cs=3cv=2*0.35 0.70136389
Cs=3cv=3*0.35 1.05204584
Cs=3cv=5*0.35 1.75340973

OBTENCION DEL COEFICIENTE K

p=1/40 0.025 2.50%

p=1/80 0.0125 1.25%

NUMERO DE CAUDALES 37

para un P 1.25% y Cs 1.05 se obtiene K 3.06%

para un P 2.5% y Cs 1.05 se obtiene K 2.26%
CALCULO Er

para Cv 0.35 y P 3.47 Er = 0.5

para Cv 0.35 y P 2.45 Er = 0.47

CALCULO DEL CAUDAL MAXIMO

PARA T
40 𝑄𝑚𝑎𝑥 = 108.3608(2.26 ∗ 0.35 + 1) 194.241218
80 𝑄𝑚𝑎𝑥 = 108.3608(3.06 ∗ 0.35 + 1) 225.93796

CALCULO DE INTERVALO DE CONFIANZA

para N =37 se puede tomar un nivel de confianza 0.88

PARA T
40 0.88 ∗ 0.53 ∗ 194.07 14.8935789
∆Q = ±
37
0.88 ∗ 0.5 ∗ 224.42 16.3433476
80 ∆Q = ±
37

CALCULO DE CAUDAL DE DISEÑO

PARA T
40 QD=128.5+9.85 209.134797
80 QD=9.21+127.36 242.281308
 CUADRO COMPARATIVO
CAUDAL MAXIMO DE DISEÑO METODO DE GUMBEL METODO NASH METODO DE LEBEDIEV PROMEDIO VARIACION MINIMO MAXIMO
PERIODO DE RETORNO 40 AÑOS 2667.631 225.875 209.135 1034.214 1414.606 209.135 2667.631
PERIODO DE RETORNO 80 AÑOS 2941.662 249.632 242.281 1144.525 1556.371 242.281 2941.662