PASO 1

α=
β=
TIEMPO
VALOR REAL At
Yt (α=0.3)
AÑO TRIMESTRES
2000 1 500 500.0
2 350 455.0
3 250 390.3
4 400 385.9
2001 5 450 398.2
6 350 378.3
7 200 318.6
8 300 303.2
2002 9 350 307.4
10 200 266.6
11 150 221.0
12 400 262.0
2003 13 550 339.8
14 350 340.6
15 250 311.4
16 550 379.1
2004 17 550 431.7
18 400 427.0
19 350 407.9
20 600 467.8
2005 21 750 558.7
22 500 553.1
23 400 517.6
24 650 564.2
2006 25 850
PROMEDIO
 PASO 2 PASO 3 PASO4 PASO 5 PASO 6
0.3 p= 1
0.1

Error Abs.
Tt (β=0.1) ^Yt+p (Yt - ^Yt )2 |et|/Yt
|et|
Atenuación Holt α = 0.3
0 900
-4.5 500 150 22500 0.4 800
-10.5 450.5 200.5 40200 0.8 700
-9.9 379.8 20.2 407 0.1 600
-7.7 376.0 74.0 5480 0.2 500

Ventas
-8.9 390.5 40.5 1640 0.1 400
-14.0 369.4 169.4 28710 0.8 300
-14.1 304.6 4.6 21 0.0 200
-12.3 289.1 60.9 3708 0.2 100
-15.2 295.1 95.1 9040 0.5 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1
-18.2 251.4 101.4 10282 0.7
-12.3 202.8 197.2 38893 0.5 Trimestres
-3.3 249.7 300.3 90195 0.5 Valor Real Pr
-2.9 336.5 13.5 182 0.0
-5.5 337.7 87.7 7690 0.4
1.8 305.9 244.1 59590 0.4
6.9 381.0 169.0 28577 0.3
5.7 438.6 38.6 1488 0.1
3.3 432.7 82.7 6846 0.2
8.9 411.2 188.8 35652 0.3
17.1 476.8 273.2 74664 0.4
14.8 575.9 75.9 5753 0.2
9.8 567.9 167.9 28205 0.4
13.5 527.4 122.6 15038 0.2
577.6
DIO 125.1 22381 33.5%
DAM ECM EPAM
PASO 7 PASO 8 PASO 9
nuación Holt α = 0.3 β = 0.1

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

Trimestres
Valor Real Pronóstico
 α= 0.18
β= 0.48
Y= 0.68
L= 6
Tiempo
Valor Real Yt At Tt
Año bimestre
-2
-1
0
2020 1 480 480.0 0.0
2 510 485.4 2.6
3 550 499.2 7.9
4 550 514.8 11.7
5 560 532.5 14.6
6 510 537.3 9.9
2021 7 555 542.1 7.4
8 540 543.6 4.5
9 610 555.5 8.1
10 640 580.2 16.0
11 620 596.4 16.1
12 570 603.8 11.9
2022 13 610 606.8 7.6
14 670 617.3 9.0
15 710 636.6 13.9
16 710 665.8 21.3
17 790 701.7 28.3
18 670 710.4 18.9

Pronósticop=1
Pronósticop=2
Pronósticop=3
Pronósticop=4
PROMEDIO
 p= 1
p= 2
p= 3
p= 4
ERROR
St
Yt+p |et| (Yt - ^Yt )2 |et|*Yt
1
1
1
1.0
1.0 480.0 30.0 900.0 0.1
1.1 488.0 62.0 3845.0 0.1
1.0 507.1 42.9 1840.2 0.1
1.0 526.5 33.5 1123.6 0.1
1.0 565.9 55.9 3126.9 0.1
1.0 585.1 30.1 907.3 0.1
1.0 575.1 35.1 1234.0 0.1
1.1 567.3 42.7 1820.2 0.1
1.1 550.3 89.7 8038.2 0.1
1.0 619.0 1.0 1.0 0.0
1.0 618.9 48.9 2388.5 0.1
1.0 663.7 53.7 2884.1 0.1
1.1 652.9 17.1 293.7 0.0
1.1 650.9 59.1 3494.4 0.1
1.0 627.9 82.1 6733.8 0.1
1.1 706.7 83.3 6931.5 0.1
1.0 787.0 117.0 13682.1 0.2
795.7 #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE!

onósticop=1
onósticop=2
onósticop=3
onósticop=4
#VALUE! 3485.0 8.4%
DAM ECM EPAM
CG Y CARGA DISTANCIA

LOCAL X Y ci
piura 5 37 10000
chiclayo 7 33 22000
trujillo 9 29 30000
chimbote 10 27 18000
huachi 12 21 6000

TOTAL

LOCAL X Y wi

RANKING FACTORES

Factor relevante peso a

calidad mo 20 4
calidad vida 17 4
transporte 15 3
cercania 14 4
cercania 2 11 3
imouesto 13 5
servicio de e 10 3
26
ei wi=ci*ei wixi wiyi
3 30000 150000 1110000 X 7.64714946
2 44000 308000 1452000 Y 31.6317411
1.1 33000 297000 957000
1 18000 180000 486000
0.8 4800 57600 100800
129800 992600 4105800

A=(X-xi)2 B=(Y-yi)2 RAIZ(A+B) CTT

b c p a b c p

5 5 4 80 100 100 80
1 2 3 68 17 34 51
2 3 4 45 30 45 60
4 5 3 56 56 70 42
6 2 3 33 66 22 33
4 2 5 65 52 26 65
3 5 4 30 30 50 40
25 24 26 377 351 347 371
PASO 1 CALCULAR HORAS HOMBRE REQUERIDAS

ITEM tc hr/u 1
camisas 1.2 2250
pantalones 1.8 1245
dias 26
 2 3 4 5 6 1 2
2850 3450 2400 2630 2580 2700 3420
1180 1350 1220 1085 1320 2241 2124
24 26 27 26 27 hr 4941 5544
208 192

PASO 4 SUMAR UNIDADES EQUIVALENTES

 produccion hr /mes
3 4 5 6
4140 2880 3156 3096
2430 2196 1953 2376 personal req
6570 5076 5109 5472 horas totales 32712 26.2115385 27
208 216 208 216 horas disp 1248

EQUIVALENTES