Nesser, Petter; Hegghammer, Thomas. Assessing Islamic State’s Commitment to Attacking the West. P... more Nesser, Petter; Hegghammer, Thomas. Assessing Islamic State’s Commitment to Attacking the West. Perspectives on Terrorism 2015 ;Volum 9.(4) s. 14-30
How can vulnerable states adjacent to countries embroiled in civil war avoid conflict contagion? ... more How can vulnerable states adjacent to countries embroiled in civil war avoid conflict contagion? Jordan has all the classic attributes highlighted in the literature as creating vulnerabilities susceptible to spillover. It adjoins Syria and Iraq where jihadists have operated freely. It has a weak economy, refugees pouring in from adjacent conflicts and is home to hundreds-if not thousands-of jihadists. Moreover, jihadists consider the Jordanian regime to be traitors-who conspire with the enemies of Islam-and they want to replace it with an Islamic state. However, as we show, very few jihadist attacks have happened in Jordan. We test three hypotheses for the limited spillover. Our analysis suggests a state policy that we dub "calibrated repression" is the most significant explanation. This means that Jordan protects against spillover by repressing jihadist attempts at infiltrating the kingdom and clamping down on local terrorist cells linked to the Islamic State while keepin...
The article examines the extent to which Islamic State (IS) has affected jihadi terrorism in Euro... more The article examines the extent to which Islamic State (IS) has affected jihadi terrorism in Europe. We look at the scope of attack activity, perpetrators and their networks, modus operandi and funding. For all the talk of a new threat we argue that, apart from scope, less is new than most assume. IS wants largely the same as al-Qaida did by attacking Europe. Their tactics are similar and their networks overlap in time and space. The core dynamics of the threat endure. It is premature to talk of a new paradigm in recruitment, but more terrorists are instructed online than before. Patterns in funding remain relatively stable, but there is an increase in plots financed from abroad. Despite military setbacks, IS remains a formidable terrorist actor, with territorial control, economic muscle and thousands of Europeans in its ranks. These things, combined with the group's skillful social media usage, are exhausting European security services' capacities. So is the refugee situation, which is exploited by IS to transfer personnel. If IS's territorial control persists, we foresee attempts at large-scale operations, including attempts at using improvised chemical or radiological devices. If IS continues to lose ground, small-scale attacks by single actors will become even more frequent.
The lethal attacks in Paris in
January and November 2015 demonstrated the threat posed by by mili... more The lethal attacks in Paris in January and November 2015 demonstrated the threat posed by by militant Islamist extremism in Europe. While the death of Osama bin Laden and the advent of the ‘Arab Spring’ fed expectations that international jihadism was a spent force, Europe is still facing an increase in terrorist plotting. This has led to growing security concerns over the fallout of the Syrian conflict, and the sizeable contingents of battlehardened European foreign fighters. This book provides a comprehensive account of the rise of jihadi militancy in Europe and offers a detailed background for understanding the current and future threat. Based on a wide range of new primary sources, it traces the phenomenon back to the late 1980s, and the formation of jihadi support networks in Europe in the early 1990s. Combining analytical rigour with empirical richness, the book offers an extensive account of patterns of terrorist cell formation and plots between 1994 and 2015. In contrast to existing research which has emphasized social explanations, failed immigration and homegrown radicalism, this book highlights the transnational aspects. It shows how jihadi terrorism in Europe is intrinsically linked to and reflects the ideological agendas of armed organizations in conflict zones, and how entrepreneurial jihad-veterans facilitate such transnationalization of militancy.
Article gives historical background for the phenomenon of Norwegian Muslims going abroad to fight... more Article gives historical background for the phenomenon of Norwegian Muslims going abroad to fight other peoples' wars and discusses the "Syria effect" on the rise of Muslim extremism in Norway and the exodus of Norwegians to jihadi outfits in the conflict theater (in Norwegian)
Nesser, Petter; Hegghammer, Thomas. Assessing Islamic State’s Commitment to Attacking the West. P... more Nesser, Petter; Hegghammer, Thomas. Assessing Islamic State’s Commitment to Attacking the West. Perspectives on Terrorism 2015 ;Volum 9.(4) s. 14-30
How can vulnerable states adjacent to countries embroiled in civil war avoid conflict contagion? ... more How can vulnerable states adjacent to countries embroiled in civil war avoid conflict contagion? Jordan has all the classic attributes highlighted in the literature as creating vulnerabilities susceptible to spillover. It adjoins Syria and Iraq where jihadists have operated freely. It has a weak economy, refugees pouring in from adjacent conflicts and is home to hundreds-if not thousands-of jihadists. Moreover, jihadists consider the Jordanian regime to be traitors-who conspire with the enemies of Islam-and they want to replace it with an Islamic state. However, as we show, very few jihadist attacks have happened in Jordan. We test three hypotheses for the limited spillover. Our analysis suggests a state policy that we dub "calibrated repression" is the most significant explanation. This means that Jordan protects against spillover by repressing jihadist attempts at infiltrating the kingdom and clamping down on local terrorist cells linked to the Islamic State while keepin...
The article examines the extent to which Islamic State (IS) has affected jihadi terrorism in Euro... more The article examines the extent to which Islamic State (IS) has affected jihadi terrorism in Europe. We look at the scope of attack activity, perpetrators and their networks, modus operandi and funding. For all the talk of a new threat we argue that, apart from scope, less is new than most assume. IS wants largely the same as al-Qaida did by attacking Europe. Their tactics are similar and their networks overlap in time and space. The core dynamics of the threat endure. It is premature to talk of a new paradigm in recruitment, but more terrorists are instructed online than before. Patterns in funding remain relatively stable, but there is an increase in plots financed from abroad. Despite military setbacks, IS remains a formidable terrorist actor, with territorial control, economic muscle and thousands of Europeans in its ranks. These things, combined with the group's skillful social media usage, are exhausting European security services' capacities. So is the refugee situation, which is exploited by IS to transfer personnel. If IS's territorial control persists, we foresee attempts at large-scale operations, including attempts at using improvised chemical or radiological devices. If IS continues to lose ground, small-scale attacks by single actors will become even more frequent.
The lethal attacks in Paris in
January and November 2015 demonstrated the threat posed by by mili... more The lethal attacks in Paris in January and November 2015 demonstrated the threat posed by by militant Islamist extremism in Europe. While the death of Osama bin Laden and the advent of the ‘Arab Spring’ fed expectations that international jihadism was a spent force, Europe is still facing an increase in terrorist plotting. This has led to growing security concerns over the fallout of the Syrian conflict, and the sizeable contingents of battlehardened European foreign fighters. This book provides a comprehensive account of the rise of jihadi militancy in Europe and offers a detailed background for understanding the current and future threat. Based on a wide range of new primary sources, it traces the phenomenon back to the late 1980s, and the formation of jihadi support networks in Europe in the early 1990s. Combining analytical rigour with empirical richness, the book offers an extensive account of patterns of terrorist cell formation and plots between 1994 and 2015. In contrast to existing research which has emphasized social explanations, failed immigration and homegrown radicalism, this book highlights the transnational aspects. It shows how jihadi terrorism in Europe is intrinsically linked to and reflects the ideological agendas of armed organizations in conflict zones, and how entrepreneurial jihad-veterans facilitate such transnationalization of militancy.
Article gives historical background for the phenomenon of Norwegian Muslims going abroad to fight... more Article gives historical background for the phenomenon of Norwegian Muslims going abroad to fight other peoples' wars and discusses the "Syria effect" on the rise of Muslim extremism in Norway and the exodus of Norwegians to jihadi outfits in the conflict theater (in Norwegian)
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Papers by Petter Nesser
January and November 2015 demonstrated the threat posed by by militant
Islamist extremism in Europe. While
the death of Osama bin Laden and
the advent of the ‘Arab Spring’ fed
expectations that international jihadism
was a spent force, Europe is still facing
an increase in terrorist plotting. This
has led to growing security concerns
over the fallout of the Syrian conflict,
and the sizeable contingents of battlehardened
European foreign fighters.
This book provides a comprehensive
account of the rise of jihadi militancy
in Europe and offers a detailed
background for understanding the
current and future threat. Based on a
wide range of new primary sources,
it traces the phenomenon back to
the late 1980s, and the formation of
jihadi support networks in Europe in
the early 1990s. Combining analytical
rigour with empirical richness, the
book offers an extensive account of
patterns of terrorist cell formation
and plots between 1994 and 2015. In
contrast to existing research which
has emphasized social explanations,
failed immigration and homegrown
radicalism, this book highlights the
transnational aspects. It shows how
jihadi terrorism in Europe is intrinsically
linked to and reflects the ideological
agendas of armed organizations in
conflict zones, and how entrepreneurial
jihad-veterans facilitate such
transnationalization of militancy.
January and November 2015 demonstrated the threat posed by by militant
Islamist extremism in Europe. While
the death of Osama bin Laden and
the advent of the ‘Arab Spring’ fed
expectations that international jihadism
was a spent force, Europe is still facing
an increase in terrorist plotting. This
has led to growing security concerns
over the fallout of the Syrian conflict,
and the sizeable contingents of battlehardened
European foreign fighters.
This book provides a comprehensive
account of the rise of jihadi militancy
in Europe and offers a detailed
background for understanding the
current and future threat. Based on a
wide range of new primary sources,
it traces the phenomenon back to
the late 1980s, and the formation of
jihadi support networks in Europe in
the early 1990s. Combining analytical
rigour with empirical richness, the
book offers an extensive account of
patterns of terrorist cell formation
and plots between 1994 and 2015. In
contrast to existing research which
has emphasized social explanations,
failed immigration and homegrown
radicalism, this book highlights the
transnational aspects. It shows how
jihadi terrorism in Europe is intrinsically
linked to and reflects the ideological
agendas of armed organizations in
conflict zones, and how entrepreneurial
jihad-veterans facilitate such
transnationalization of militancy.