We argue that even in the case that banks are able to maintain the interest rate at a level that ... more We argue that even in the case that banks are able to maintain the interest rate at a level that they want (the most “radical” version of the theory of endogenous money), liquidity preference continues to constitute a key element when determining the real equilibrium of the economy. In a framework of endogenous money, the Keynesian theory of liquidity preference still constitutes a theory that determines level of income. Financial markets matter, and the Kaldorian idea that liquidity preference “ceases to be of any importance” can only be defended under a set of very restrictive assumptions.
En este artículo se argumenta que la dolarización introduce una asimetría fundamental en la forma... more En este artículo se argumenta que la dolarización introduce una asimetría fundamental en la forma cómo la política macroeconómica puede —o no puede— ser conducida. Cuando las cosas van bien, es perfectamente posible enfriar la economía y conducir una política keynesiana contracíclica estándar. Sin embargo, cuando las cosas van mal, una política expansionista contracíclica no puede ser ejecutada, lo cual complica la probabilidad de ser capaz de acomodar la demanda creciente de billetes y evitar un caos financiero. Todo esto posee profundas consecuencias distributivas y, en particular, favorece a la clase rentista —capitalistas financieros—, haciendo imposible —o extremadamente difícil— acercarse a la eutanasia keynesiana del rentista en favor de un proceso más sostenido de progreso económico y social. Estas conclusiones se basan en la perspectiva teórica clásica de Smith, Ricardo, Marx y Sraffa.
La sezione 1 è dedicata all’analisi delle tendenze fondamentali dell’economia ecuadoriana negli u... more La sezione 1 è dedicata all’analisi delle tendenze fondamentali dell’economia ecuadoriana negli ultimi tre decenni. Nonostante non ci siano segni di cambiamento strutturale, le condizioni delle persone sono migliorate significativamente, soprattutto negli ultimi dieci anni. Ciò è stato possibile, come è spiegato nella sezione 2, per il crescente ruolo dello Stato come principale motore della crescita e della redistribuzione. Questo “miracolo”, tuttavia, non può sostenersi nel tempo e la profonda crisi degli ultimi due anni lo dimostra. La sezione 3 intende dimostrare che i sintomi della “malattia olandese” sono chiaramente presenti nell’economia ecuadoriana e bloccano il suo sviluppo nel contesto di un modello produttivo invariato. Rimuovere quegli ostacoli è difficile e la dollarizzazione sta diventando un ostacolo-chiave. La sezione 4 si conclude quindi con un’analisi della dollarizzazione, il regime monetario introdotto all’inizio del 2000, che certamente ha contribuito a salvare...
El modelo que se construye en este artículo quiere mostrar que la más importante idea Keynesiana,... more El modelo que se construye en este artículo quiere mostrar que la más importante idea Keynesiana, el principio de la demanda efectiva, no se aplica solamente a un corto plazo en el que unos precios son fijos o rígidos. También se aplica a un largo plazo en el que los precios son perfectamente flexibles y vacían el mercado, las firmas maximizan sus ganancias y la distribución funcional del ingreso depende de las productividades marginales. También se muestra que la naturaleza Keynesiana de un modelo no depende de sus resultados – en unos casos bajar los salarios es una buena idea y en otros no lo es; en unos casos la paradoja del ahorro vale en el largo plazo y en otros no vale – sino del hecho de incorporar (o no incorporar) la noción de demanda autónoma. Para terminar, se le da un sustento a la idea de que la forma en la que se trata el asunto de los salarios monetarios (y su flexibilidad) en la Teoría General no se puede aplicar al mundo “financiarizado” en el que estamos.
De-Tax e Tobin Tax (di Marco Missaglia, Franco Osculati) - ABSTRACT: The Italian government has r... more De-Tax e Tobin Tax (di Marco Missaglia, Franco Osculati) - ABSTRACT: The Italian government has recently proposed the introduction of the so called De-Tax (or A-Tax) as a tool to fund more enerously development and anti-poverty programs in poor countries. The basic idea is simple: if the seller of a given good or service decides to devote a fraction of
We give an assessment of the loss in the nominal gross domestic product (GDP) and nominal gross n... more We give an assessment of the loss in the nominal gross domestic product (GDP) and nominal gross national income (GNI) due to twenty- seven months of intifada. It is based on the modest growth scenario given by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) in their first assessment of the economic developments in 2006 in Palestine. It turns out that the assessed loss is equivalent to the GDP of 1997 and the GNI in 1999: one year on two (and a quarter). Moreover, we show that our 2004 estimates of macro figures of 2002, based on a static computable general equilibrium model, are closer to the 2007 consensus estimates by IMF and WB than the 2003 estimates of IMF, based on an income-expenditure model. We argue that the shortening of the time horizon and the quantity adjustment following the dramatic shock explain why our model performs better.
A popular functional form for modeling the consumption block of a computable general equilibrium ... more A popular functional form for modeling the consumption block of a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) is the Linear Expenditure System (LES) for which the Engel curves are straight lines. To allow for more general shapes two other systems have been proposed in recent literature: An Implicitly Directly Additive Demand System (AIDADS, a generalization of LES) and the Specialized Constant Differences of Elasticities (CDE) system. To calibrate the parameters outside information on all income elasticities and all own price elasticities is needed, whereas LES only requires information on income elasticities and the Frisch parameter. In this paper we consider a special case of CDE, the Indirect Addilog System (IAS) that allows for non-straight Engel curves, whereas its outside data requirement is the same as for LES. The only disadvantage is that all cross price elasticities of a particular price are the same. In many developing countries there is hardly any information on price res...
A popular functional form for modeling the consumption block of a computable general equilibrium ... more A popular functional form for modeling the consumption block of a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) is the Linear Expenditure System (LES) for which the Engel curves are straight lines. The LES does not allow for the existence of inferior commodities, elastic demand and for gross substitution. To calibrate the parameters outside information on income elasticities and on the expenditure
Third Annual Global Conference on Eviromental …, 2002
... AN ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT Alberto MAJOCCHI and Marco MISSAG LIA Dipartimento di economia pubblic... more ... AN ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT Alberto MAJOCCHI and Marco MISSAG LIA Dipartimento di economia pubblica e territoriale Università di Pavia ... Recently, the debate on the use of an energy tax has been revamped with the growing awareness of the problem of global warming. ...
ABSTRACT In 2003, the World Bank (WB), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and de Boer and Miss... more ABSTRACT In 2003, the World Bank (WB), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and de Boer and Missaglia (DBM) constructed models for the estimation of the 2002 macro-economic indicators of the economy of Palestine. In 2007, IMF and WB provided the consensus estimates of these figures using data that are more up-to-date and more complete than those available in 2003. This note proposes an ex-post evaluation of the predictive performance of the models of WB, DBM and IMF. A comparison of the models of WB and DBM, which are both micro-founded computable general equilibrium models using the same data, reveals that DBM strongly outperforms WB. We argue that the shortening of the time horizon and the quantity adjustment following the dramatic shock explain why our model performs much better. A comparison of DBM with IMF (a simple macro-founded income-expenditure model) also shows that our model performs better.
We argue that even in the case that banks are able to maintain the interest rate at a level that ... more We argue that even in the case that banks are able to maintain the interest rate at a level that they want (the most “radical” version of the theory of endogenous money), liquidity preference continues to constitute a key element when determining the real equilibrium of the economy. In a framework of endogenous money, the Keynesian theory of liquidity preference still constitutes a theory that determines level of income. Financial markets matter, and the Kaldorian idea that liquidity preference “ceases to be of any importance” can only be defended under a set of very restrictive assumptions.
En este artículo se argumenta que la dolarización introduce una asimetría fundamental en la forma... more En este artículo se argumenta que la dolarización introduce una asimetría fundamental en la forma cómo la política macroeconómica puede —o no puede— ser conducida. Cuando las cosas van bien, es perfectamente posible enfriar la economía y conducir una política keynesiana contracíclica estándar. Sin embargo, cuando las cosas van mal, una política expansionista contracíclica no puede ser ejecutada, lo cual complica la probabilidad de ser capaz de acomodar la demanda creciente de billetes y evitar un caos financiero. Todo esto posee profundas consecuencias distributivas y, en particular, favorece a la clase rentista —capitalistas financieros—, haciendo imposible —o extremadamente difícil— acercarse a la eutanasia keynesiana del rentista en favor de un proceso más sostenido de progreso económico y social. Estas conclusiones se basan en la perspectiva teórica clásica de Smith, Ricardo, Marx y Sraffa.
La sezione 1 è dedicata all’analisi delle tendenze fondamentali dell’economia ecuadoriana negli u... more La sezione 1 è dedicata all’analisi delle tendenze fondamentali dell’economia ecuadoriana negli ultimi tre decenni. Nonostante non ci siano segni di cambiamento strutturale, le condizioni delle persone sono migliorate significativamente, soprattutto negli ultimi dieci anni. Ciò è stato possibile, come è spiegato nella sezione 2, per il crescente ruolo dello Stato come principale motore della crescita e della redistribuzione. Questo “miracolo”, tuttavia, non può sostenersi nel tempo e la profonda crisi degli ultimi due anni lo dimostra. La sezione 3 intende dimostrare che i sintomi della “malattia olandese” sono chiaramente presenti nell’economia ecuadoriana e bloccano il suo sviluppo nel contesto di un modello produttivo invariato. Rimuovere quegli ostacoli è difficile e la dollarizzazione sta diventando un ostacolo-chiave. La sezione 4 si conclude quindi con un’analisi della dollarizzazione, il regime monetario introdotto all’inizio del 2000, che certamente ha contribuito a salvare...
El modelo que se construye en este artículo quiere mostrar que la más importante idea Keynesiana,... more El modelo que se construye en este artículo quiere mostrar que la más importante idea Keynesiana, el principio de la demanda efectiva, no se aplica solamente a un corto plazo en el que unos precios son fijos o rígidos. También se aplica a un largo plazo en el que los precios son perfectamente flexibles y vacían el mercado, las firmas maximizan sus ganancias y la distribución funcional del ingreso depende de las productividades marginales. También se muestra que la naturaleza Keynesiana de un modelo no depende de sus resultados – en unos casos bajar los salarios es una buena idea y en otros no lo es; en unos casos la paradoja del ahorro vale en el largo plazo y en otros no vale – sino del hecho de incorporar (o no incorporar) la noción de demanda autónoma. Para terminar, se le da un sustento a la idea de que la forma en la que se trata el asunto de los salarios monetarios (y su flexibilidad) en la Teoría General no se puede aplicar al mundo “financiarizado” en el que estamos.
De-Tax e Tobin Tax (di Marco Missaglia, Franco Osculati) - ABSTRACT: The Italian government has r... more De-Tax e Tobin Tax (di Marco Missaglia, Franco Osculati) - ABSTRACT: The Italian government has recently proposed the introduction of the so called De-Tax (or A-Tax) as a tool to fund more enerously development and anti-poverty programs in poor countries. The basic idea is simple: if the seller of a given good or service decides to devote a fraction of
We give an assessment of the loss in the nominal gross domestic product (GDP) and nominal gross n... more We give an assessment of the loss in the nominal gross domestic product (GDP) and nominal gross national income (GNI) due to twenty- seven months of intifada. It is based on the modest growth scenario given by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) in their first assessment of the economic developments in 2006 in Palestine. It turns out that the assessed loss is equivalent to the GDP of 1997 and the GNI in 1999: one year on two (and a quarter). Moreover, we show that our 2004 estimates of macro figures of 2002, based on a static computable general equilibrium model, are closer to the 2007 consensus estimates by IMF and WB than the 2003 estimates of IMF, based on an income-expenditure model. We argue that the shortening of the time horizon and the quantity adjustment following the dramatic shock explain why our model performs better.
A popular functional form for modeling the consumption block of a computable general equilibrium ... more A popular functional form for modeling the consumption block of a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) is the Linear Expenditure System (LES) for which the Engel curves are straight lines. To allow for more general shapes two other systems have been proposed in recent literature: An Implicitly Directly Additive Demand System (AIDADS, a generalization of LES) and the Specialized Constant Differences of Elasticities (CDE) system. To calibrate the parameters outside information on all income elasticities and all own price elasticities is needed, whereas LES only requires information on income elasticities and the Frisch parameter. In this paper we consider a special case of CDE, the Indirect Addilog System (IAS) that allows for non-straight Engel curves, whereas its outside data requirement is the same as for LES. The only disadvantage is that all cross price elasticities of a particular price are the same. In many developing countries there is hardly any information on price res...
A popular functional form for modeling the consumption block of a computable general equilibrium ... more A popular functional form for modeling the consumption block of a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) is the Linear Expenditure System (LES) for which the Engel curves are straight lines. The LES does not allow for the existence of inferior commodities, elastic demand and for gross substitution. To calibrate the parameters outside information on income elasticities and on the expenditure
Third Annual Global Conference on Eviromental …, 2002
... AN ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT Alberto MAJOCCHI and Marco MISSAG LIA Dipartimento di economia pubblic... more ... AN ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT Alberto MAJOCCHI and Marco MISSAG LIA Dipartimento di economia pubblica e territoriale Università di Pavia ... Recently, the debate on the use of an energy tax has been revamped with the growing awareness of the problem of global warming. ...
ABSTRACT In 2003, the World Bank (WB), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and de Boer and Miss... more ABSTRACT In 2003, the World Bank (WB), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and de Boer and Missaglia (DBM) constructed models for the estimation of the 2002 macro-economic indicators of the economy of Palestine. In 2007, IMF and WB provided the consensus estimates of these figures using data that are more up-to-date and more complete than those available in 2003. This note proposes an ex-post evaluation of the predictive performance of the models of WB, DBM and IMF. A comparison of the models of WB and DBM, which are both micro-founded computable general equilibrium models using the same data, reveals that DBM strongly outperforms WB. We argue that the shortening of the time horizon and the quantity adjustment following the dramatic shock explain why our model performs much better. A comparison of DBM with IMF (a simple macro-founded income-expenditure model) also shows that our model performs better.
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