The project EU-MACS is funded by the EU (Horizon programme) and aims to clarify how the market fo... more The project EU-MACS is funded by the EU (Horizon programme) and aims to clarify how the market for climate services could abound by improving the matching of supply of and demand for climate services (CS). CS are understood as services that include transformation of climate related data – often together with other relevant information - into customized information products, offered as such or embedded in consultancy and/or education. EU-MACS runs from November 2016 to November 2018. The study generates a series of Deliverables (mostly reports). This Deliverable 1.2 discusses (1) encountered business models and resourcing for CS provision, (2) quality assurance of CS provision, and (3) the significance of legislation in creating demand for CS.
In this article radical change in the context of sustainable development is seen as a long-term p... more In this article radical change in the context of sustainable development is seen as a long-term process in which steady progress in the right direction is regarded as more essential than quick success. The author argues that pressing for swift radical changes bears a serious risk of becoming counter productive, because: pressing for rapid change is often wasteful and may prevent the best possible ways of exploitation of innovations; rapid change over a wide front of applications and sectors is usually impossible; pressing for rapid changes usually encounters strong opposition from interest groups, thereby risking to get bogged down in acceptability discourses. Transition management, such as for a transition towards sustainable consumption seems often to presuppose the need for radical changes. Even though the embedding function of transition management is a helpful concept and tool for sustainable consumption strategies, the lack or the negligence of the role of objective functions is a disturbing feature of transition management theories. All in all, the need for radical change should emerge as the transition process unfolds. There is no good scientific reason for a priori claims for radical changes as a kind of new dogma.
This paper takes the view that energy markets and markets for energy efficiency have significant ... more This paper takes the view that energy markets and markets for energy efficiency have significant imperfections, including ones that cannot be repaired through prices alone. The acknowledgement of the various market imperfections, however, does not endorse automatically the use of various instruments, such as tradable white certificates (TWC). Therefore, it is necessary to clarify under what conditions a TWC system can have equal or superior effectiveness and economic efficiency as compared to other instruments. The article explains the principles of a TWC system in terms of market functioning and price formation. It also highlights some key assumptions regarding additionality of energy savings, transaction cost, free riding, target setting and regulatory predictability. Subsequently, the paper illustrates how a TWC system interacts with other energy efficiency policy instruments, in particular standards and taxes. After these explanatory sections the article turns to the modelling of actual TWC price formation in selected countries and subsequently presents a comparative assessment of a TWC system with an energy tax for Finland and the Netherlands.
In this paper we discuss to what extent transport policy fails to integrate five types of externa... more In this paper we discuss to what extent transport policy fails to integrate five types of external effects, and what kind of research needs follow from the objective to make transport sustainable. The discussion is a synthesis of the findings collected and synthesized in the framework of Focus Group 4 of the STELLA project. The assignment of Focus Group 4 was to draw up a set of recommendations for future transport policy-oriented research dealing with external effects, on the basis of a series of specialist workshops. Five different kinds of so-called external effects of transport were identified beforehand, being environment, safety and security, public health, land use and congestion. Safety and security as well as congestion are external effects in the sense that they are not 'internalised' in the price of the transport service, but they do affect predominantly others within the transport system. This means that with some delay the transport market still reacts to changes in the intensity of these effects, albeit biased or insufficient. The public goods character of both externalities however implies that public intervention is needed to attain better performance of these external effects, partly via internalisation of the external effects and partly via planning (i.e. by evaluating the trade-offs ex ante). The other external effects, however, are not only insufficiently internalised in the transport price, but they are also predominantly affecting parties outside the transport system. Consequently, changes in the intensity of these effects do not feed back directly into the transport market. In that case public intervention has even a more complicated task, since it takes more time and is more complicated to learn what are actually the right balances for the trade-offs between adequate access and, in turn, sustainability, spatial quality, and public health. The adequate integration of sustainability into transport policy: some major dilemmas European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research 78 The presentations and discussions in Focus Group 4 all dealt, one way or another, with these tradeoffs. The represented approaches were about: • how to make the market (and public planners) better informed • options to internalise various types of external effects • comprehensive optimisation models for one or several trade-offs • dilemmas between the economic, social, and environmental dimension of sustainability • experienced and perceived policy implementation obstacles, amongst others, those following from social dilemma situations. In this short paper it is evidently impossible to discuss all the issues and findings from the seminars and synthesis papers produced during the project. Given the need to be selective amidst the plenty of topics this paper casts the discussion of the main findings into two themes, being: 1. the decisive influence of the choice of sustainability paradigm 2. the problems regarding policy implementation We argue that both in science and in policy-making there is lack of consensus regarding the operationalisation of sustainability in transport and the consequent sense of urgency; hence there is an apparent need to move much closer to a consensus and preferably rather quickly. However, the lack of a comprehensive consensus does not need to hold hostage those sustainable transport measures about which specialists largely agree. The implementation of those scientifically undisputed measures is often inhibited by a belated and excessively instrumentalist consideration of the social dimension.
Policy instruments and measures already target the global warming impacts of housing and transpor... more Policy instruments and measures already target the global warming impacts of housing and transport in many countries, although many of those instruments were not originally developed for the purpose. However, the challenge of curbing climate change calls not only for innovative and improved instruments , but for integrated policy packages that address consumption across the entire product life cycle, recognize links between different consumption sectors, and identify and harness synergies between instruments. To this end, we first evaluate the effectiveness of existing policy instruments targeted at housing, passenger transport and food in Finland. The results show large impacts on greenhouse gas emissions. Second, we integrate instruments into packages, which minimize potential negative interferences, while strengthening synergies and complementarities between instruments. We estimate the potential of the consequent emission reductions to be considerable. By 2020, housing and passenger transport emissions are estimated to decline by 4.2 million tons (Mt). Integrated food related policy packages are estimated to reduce emissions 0.3 Mt in Finland and life-cycle based emissions by 0.5 Mt. Altogether the emission reduction would be 4.5 Mt in Finland, which is over 6% of Finland's average emissions 68 Mt for years 2008e2012. In conclusion, though greenhouse gas emissions of household consumption have already been affected by policy instruments, it is better to develop policy packages by which the synergies between measures can be reinforced and hence overall effectiveness can be improved. We found acceptability of policy instruments to be a key issue, necessitating careful implementation, long-term consistency and research showing evidence of their effectiveness. The full realization of the policy package potential requires improved cooperation across relevant ministries and public authorities, which can be facilitated by common policy programs and objectives for all related public authorities. The project results were used in the preparation of a revision of Finland's program for sustainable consumption and production. We propose that similar policy package development processes in other countries would increase further our understanding about effective policy packages, reinforce each other, and speed up the changes for more sustainable consumption.
This article presents a green roof cost-benefit analysis (CBA). Green roofs are roofs which are p... more This article presents a green roof cost-benefit analysis (CBA). Green roofs are roofs which are partially or completely covered by vegetation. We discuss the benefits and costs of light self-sustaining vegetated roofs. The benefits of the ecosystem services (ES) provided by green roofs can be classified into private and public benefits. We apply the selected valuation methods first in Helsinki, Finland and subsequently explain how results can be transferred to other urban locations. Past research and this study show that private benefits are usually not high enough to justify the expensive investment for a private decision maker. However, when the public benefits are added to the private benefits, social benefits are higher than the costs of green roofs in most cases. Past research quantified most types of the benefits, excluding scenic and biodiversity benefits. Scenic benefits denote the intangible benefits that people derive from the presence of green space, including at least aesthetic and psychological ones. In this article, special emphasis is placed on the valuation of the scenic benefits; these are among the most challenging benefits to valuate in monetary terms. We employ hedonic pricing theory, implemented via spatial regression models, and green roof implementation scenarios in order to estimate the aggregate willingness to pay for a " unit " of green roof. The results show that the scenic benefits can be a significant attribute in cost-benefit calculations. Yet, the amount of benefits strongly depends on the green roof design.
Information gaps and asymmetries are common in the housing market and this is frequently the case... more Information gaps and asymmetries are common in the housing market and this is frequently the case with the risks of natural processes, especially in coastal areas where the amenity dimension may dominate the risk aspect. Flood risk disclosure through maps is a policy instrument aimed at addressing this situation. We assess its effectiveness by identifying whether such maps induce a price differential for single family coastal dwellings in three Finnish cities, and by estimating the discount per square meter for various flooding probabilities (return times). The estimations indicate a significant price drop after the information disclosure for properties located in flood-prone areas as indicated by the maps. In the case of sea flooding information in Helsinki, the price effect is sensitive to the communicated probability of flooding. Overall, the discussed policy instrument appears to have functioned as intended, correcting information gaps and asymmetries related to flood risk. The identified effect is spatially selective; it caused a short-term localized shock in market prices in conjunction with some reorientation of demand from risky coastal properties towards ones that represent a similar level of coastal amenity, but are less risky in terms of flooding. This hints at the potential for incorporating the shocks associated with flood events or risk information into broader-scoped urban modelling and simulation. Similarly, the reasonable accuracy with which the housing market processes the additional information shows a potential for wider use of the disclosure of non-obvious risks in real estate markets. In the case of adapting to climate change risks, additional uncertainties may make the disclosure instrument less effective, if used as a single tool.
This report is the first from NORDRESS Nordic Centre of Excellence work package 6.1. It provides ... more This report is the first from NORDRESS Nordic Centre of Excellence work package 6.1. It provides an overview of the institutional arrangements of natural hazard management in the five Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden). The review is structured around six domains: governance, financial risk sharing mechanisms, legal scope of hazard and risk assessments, mitigation, awareness raising and education and psychosocial support. The report is based on information gathered through literature, expert online survey, interviews and a two day expert workshop.
The road transport sector is facing rising uncertainties in planning and operations due to climat... more The road transport sector is facing rising uncertainties in planning and operations due to climate change induced changes in weather variability and extreme events. However, because of the high level of uncertainty related to the future climate, adaptation measures should be robust so as to retain the option value of the portfolio of measures. As an example of such a measure, this paper evaluates how foreseen innovations in weather services could reduce weather sensitivity and, consequently reduce the negative effects of climate change in the sector. The study is based on a theoretical framework on climate change adaptation and valuation of weather and climate services using the Weather Service Chain Analysis. We apply these frameworks to the road transport sector with a special emphasis on drivers' decision making before and during a trip. We show that improved weather information, including more accurate weather forecasts, new applications and information dissemination channels can decrease the vulnerability of the mode to projected shifts in extreme weather patterns due to climate change.
Improved weather and marine services (WMS) can have a role to play in the safe and secure develop... more Improved weather and marine services (WMS) can have a role to play in the safe and secure development of the Arctic region through either a demand-pull (enhanced by growth in activity) or a supply-push (enhances growth in activity) process. To analyse the nature of the process and the future use and benefits of WMS, a better understanding of possible future developments in the Eurasian Arctic is needed.
This report presents six socio-economic scenarios for the Eurasian Arctic by 2040, and a brief synopsis of the implications of each scenario for WMS. The scenarios focus on the development of shipping, resource extraction and tourism industries. The scenario futures, called Wild West, Silicon Valley, Exploited Colony, Shangri La, Conflict Zone and Antarctic, describe the scale and scope of activities in the Eurasian Arctic by 2040. The scenarios have three dimensions: open – closed, public - private and dirty – clean, which describe the political, economic, social, technological and environmental aspects of different futures. The scenarios are based on a literature review, pre-survey, expert workshop and restructuring and analysis of this material. The methodology used for scenario construction is described in detail and may be used widely by other scenario developers.
Road traffic safety is the result of a complex interaction of factors, and causes behind road veh... more Road traffic safety is the result of a complex interaction of factors, and causes behind road vehicle crashes require different measures to reduce their impacts. This study assesses how strongly the variation in daily winter crash rates associates with weather conditions in Finland. This is done by illustrating trends and spatiotemporal variation in the crash rates, by showing how a GIS application can evidence the association between temporary rises in regional crash rates and the occurrence of bad weather, and with a regression model on crash rate sensitivity to adverse weather conditions. The analysis indicates that a base rate of crashes depending on non-weather factors exists, and some combinations of extreme weather conditions are able to substantially push up crash rates on days with bad weather. Some spatial causation factors, such as variation of geophysical characteristics causing systematic differences in the distributions of weather variables, exist. Yet, even in winter, non-spatial factors are normally more significant. GIS data can support optimal deployment of rescue services and enhance in-depth quantitative analysis by helping to identify the most appropriate spatial and temporal resolutions. However, the supportive role of GIS should not be inferred as existence of highly significant spatial causation.
About a one-fifth of the Finnish households disposes of a summerhouse, whereas an even larger sha... more About a one-fifth of the Finnish households disposes of a summerhouse, whereas an even larger share has regular access to it, thanks to family or friends. This means that summerhouses represent an important share of the Finnish holiday and leisure budgets, both in terms of money and in terms of time. Furthermore, summerhouses often make up a part of the lifestyle of households. Correspondingly, there are summerhouses which are fitted with many conveniences in order to cater for a luxurious standard of living during holidays. In contrast other summerhouses are supposed to be 'near to nature', which often implies that their standards of living are rather austere. In recent years summerhouses have become a popular theme for social and economic studies. In various countryside municipalities the summerhouse visitors are a major or even the principal source of income for the area. With other sectors retreating, the local economic sustainability depends to an ever larger extent o...
The project EU-MACS is funded by the EU (Horizon programme) and aims to clarify how the market fo... more The project EU-MACS is funded by the EU (Horizon programme) and aims to clarify how the market for climate services could abound by improving the matching of supply of and demand for climate services (CS). CS are understood as services that include transformation of climate related data – often together with other relevant information - into customized information products, offered as such or embedded in consultancy and/or education. EU-MACS runs from November 2016 to November 2018. The study generates a series of Deliverables (mostly reports). This Deliverable 1.2 discusses (1) encountered business models and resourcing for CS provision, (2) quality assurance of CS provision, and (3) the significance of legislation in creating demand for CS.
In this article radical change in the context of sustainable development is seen as a long-term p... more In this article radical change in the context of sustainable development is seen as a long-term process in which steady progress in the right direction is regarded as more essential than quick success. The author argues that pressing for swift radical changes bears a serious risk of becoming counter productive, because: pressing for rapid change is often wasteful and may prevent the best possible ways of exploitation of innovations; rapid change over a wide front of applications and sectors is usually impossible; pressing for rapid changes usually encounters strong opposition from interest groups, thereby risking to get bogged down in acceptability discourses. Transition management, such as for a transition towards sustainable consumption seems often to presuppose the need for radical changes. Even though the embedding function of transition management is a helpful concept and tool for sustainable consumption strategies, the lack or the negligence of the role of objective functions is a disturbing feature of transition management theories. All in all, the need for radical change should emerge as the transition process unfolds. There is no good scientific reason for a priori claims for radical changes as a kind of new dogma.
This paper takes the view that energy markets and markets for energy efficiency have significant ... more This paper takes the view that energy markets and markets for energy efficiency have significant imperfections, including ones that cannot be repaired through prices alone. The acknowledgement of the various market imperfections, however, does not endorse automatically the use of various instruments, such as tradable white certificates (TWC). Therefore, it is necessary to clarify under what conditions a TWC system can have equal or superior effectiveness and economic efficiency as compared to other instruments. The article explains the principles of a TWC system in terms of market functioning and price formation. It also highlights some key assumptions regarding additionality of energy savings, transaction cost, free riding, target setting and regulatory predictability. Subsequently, the paper illustrates how a TWC system interacts with other energy efficiency policy instruments, in particular standards and taxes. After these explanatory sections the article turns to the modelling of actual TWC price formation in selected countries and subsequently presents a comparative assessment of a TWC system with an energy tax for Finland and the Netherlands.
In this paper we discuss to what extent transport policy fails to integrate five types of externa... more In this paper we discuss to what extent transport policy fails to integrate five types of external effects, and what kind of research needs follow from the objective to make transport sustainable. The discussion is a synthesis of the findings collected and synthesized in the framework of Focus Group 4 of the STELLA project. The assignment of Focus Group 4 was to draw up a set of recommendations for future transport policy-oriented research dealing with external effects, on the basis of a series of specialist workshops. Five different kinds of so-called external effects of transport were identified beforehand, being environment, safety and security, public health, land use and congestion. Safety and security as well as congestion are external effects in the sense that they are not 'internalised' in the price of the transport service, but they do affect predominantly others within the transport system. This means that with some delay the transport market still reacts to changes in the intensity of these effects, albeit biased or insufficient. The public goods character of both externalities however implies that public intervention is needed to attain better performance of these external effects, partly via internalisation of the external effects and partly via planning (i.e. by evaluating the trade-offs ex ante). The other external effects, however, are not only insufficiently internalised in the transport price, but they are also predominantly affecting parties outside the transport system. Consequently, changes in the intensity of these effects do not feed back directly into the transport market. In that case public intervention has even a more complicated task, since it takes more time and is more complicated to learn what are actually the right balances for the trade-offs between adequate access and, in turn, sustainability, spatial quality, and public health. The adequate integration of sustainability into transport policy: some major dilemmas European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research 78 The presentations and discussions in Focus Group 4 all dealt, one way or another, with these tradeoffs. The represented approaches were about: • how to make the market (and public planners) better informed • options to internalise various types of external effects • comprehensive optimisation models for one or several trade-offs • dilemmas between the economic, social, and environmental dimension of sustainability • experienced and perceived policy implementation obstacles, amongst others, those following from social dilemma situations. In this short paper it is evidently impossible to discuss all the issues and findings from the seminars and synthesis papers produced during the project. Given the need to be selective amidst the plenty of topics this paper casts the discussion of the main findings into two themes, being: 1. the decisive influence of the choice of sustainability paradigm 2. the problems regarding policy implementation We argue that both in science and in policy-making there is lack of consensus regarding the operationalisation of sustainability in transport and the consequent sense of urgency; hence there is an apparent need to move much closer to a consensus and preferably rather quickly. However, the lack of a comprehensive consensus does not need to hold hostage those sustainable transport measures about which specialists largely agree. The implementation of those scientifically undisputed measures is often inhibited by a belated and excessively instrumentalist consideration of the social dimension.
Policy instruments and measures already target the global warming impacts of housing and transpor... more Policy instruments and measures already target the global warming impacts of housing and transport in many countries, although many of those instruments were not originally developed for the purpose. However, the challenge of curbing climate change calls not only for innovative and improved instruments , but for integrated policy packages that address consumption across the entire product life cycle, recognize links between different consumption sectors, and identify and harness synergies between instruments. To this end, we first evaluate the effectiveness of existing policy instruments targeted at housing, passenger transport and food in Finland. The results show large impacts on greenhouse gas emissions. Second, we integrate instruments into packages, which minimize potential negative interferences, while strengthening synergies and complementarities between instruments. We estimate the potential of the consequent emission reductions to be considerable. By 2020, housing and passenger transport emissions are estimated to decline by 4.2 million tons (Mt). Integrated food related policy packages are estimated to reduce emissions 0.3 Mt in Finland and life-cycle based emissions by 0.5 Mt. Altogether the emission reduction would be 4.5 Mt in Finland, which is over 6% of Finland's average emissions 68 Mt for years 2008e2012. In conclusion, though greenhouse gas emissions of household consumption have already been affected by policy instruments, it is better to develop policy packages by which the synergies between measures can be reinforced and hence overall effectiveness can be improved. We found acceptability of policy instruments to be a key issue, necessitating careful implementation, long-term consistency and research showing evidence of their effectiveness. The full realization of the policy package potential requires improved cooperation across relevant ministries and public authorities, which can be facilitated by common policy programs and objectives for all related public authorities. The project results were used in the preparation of a revision of Finland's program for sustainable consumption and production. We propose that similar policy package development processes in other countries would increase further our understanding about effective policy packages, reinforce each other, and speed up the changes for more sustainable consumption.
This article presents a green roof cost-benefit analysis (CBA). Green roofs are roofs which are p... more This article presents a green roof cost-benefit analysis (CBA). Green roofs are roofs which are partially or completely covered by vegetation. We discuss the benefits and costs of light self-sustaining vegetated roofs. The benefits of the ecosystem services (ES) provided by green roofs can be classified into private and public benefits. We apply the selected valuation methods first in Helsinki, Finland and subsequently explain how results can be transferred to other urban locations. Past research and this study show that private benefits are usually not high enough to justify the expensive investment for a private decision maker. However, when the public benefits are added to the private benefits, social benefits are higher than the costs of green roofs in most cases. Past research quantified most types of the benefits, excluding scenic and biodiversity benefits. Scenic benefits denote the intangible benefits that people derive from the presence of green space, including at least aesthetic and psychological ones. In this article, special emphasis is placed on the valuation of the scenic benefits; these are among the most challenging benefits to valuate in monetary terms. We employ hedonic pricing theory, implemented via spatial regression models, and green roof implementation scenarios in order to estimate the aggregate willingness to pay for a " unit " of green roof. The results show that the scenic benefits can be a significant attribute in cost-benefit calculations. Yet, the amount of benefits strongly depends on the green roof design.
Information gaps and asymmetries are common in the housing market and this is frequently the case... more Information gaps and asymmetries are common in the housing market and this is frequently the case with the risks of natural processes, especially in coastal areas where the amenity dimension may dominate the risk aspect. Flood risk disclosure through maps is a policy instrument aimed at addressing this situation. We assess its effectiveness by identifying whether such maps induce a price differential for single family coastal dwellings in three Finnish cities, and by estimating the discount per square meter for various flooding probabilities (return times). The estimations indicate a significant price drop after the information disclosure for properties located in flood-prone areas as indicated by the maps. In the case of sea flooding information in Helsinki, the price effect is sensitive to the communicated probability of flooding. Overall, the discussed policy instrument appears to have functioned as intended, correcting information gaps and asymmetries related to flood risk. The identified effect is spatially selective; it caused a short-term localized shock in market prices in conjunction with some reorientation of demand from risky coastal properties towards ones that represent a similar level of coastal amenity, but are less risky in terms of flooding. This hints at the potential for incorporating the shocks associated with flood events or risk information into broader-scoped urban modelling and simulation. Similarly, the reasonable accuracy with which the housing market processes the additional information shows a potential for wider use of the disclosure of non-obvious risks in real estate markets. In the case of adapting to climate change risks, additional uncertainties may make the disclosure instrument less effective, if used as a single tool.
This report is the first from NORDRESS Nordic Centre of Excellence work package 6.1. It provides ... more This report is the first from NORDRESS Nordic Centre of Excellence work package 6.1. It provides an overview of the institutional arrangements of natural hazard management in the five Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden). The review is structured around six domains: governance, financial risk sharing mechanisms, legal scope of hazard and risk assessments, mitigation, awareness raising and education and psychosocial support. The report is based on information gathered through literature, expert online survey, interviews and a two day expert workshop.
The road transport sector is facing rising uncertainties in planning and operations due to climat... more The road transport sector is facing rising uncertainties in planning and operations due to climate change induced changes in weather variability and extreme events. However, because of the high level of uncertainty related to the future climate, adaptation measures should be robust so as to retain the option value of the portfolio of measures. As an example of such a measure, this paper evaluates how foreseen innovations in weather services could reduce weather sensitivity and, consequently reduce the negative effects of climate change in the sector. The study is based on a theoretical framework on climate change adaptation and valuation of weather and climate services using the Weather Service Chain Analysis. We apply these frameworks to the road transport sector with a special emphasis on drivers' decision making before and during a trip. We show that improved weather information, including more accurate weather forecasts, new applications and information dissemination channels can decrease the vulnerability of the mode to projected shifts in extreme weather patterns due to climate change.
Improved weather and marine services (WMS) can have a role to play in the safe and secure develop... more Improved weather and marine services (WMS) can have a role to play in the safe and secure development of the Arctic region through either a demand-pull (enhanced by growth in activity) or a supply-push (enhances growth in activity) process. To analyse the nature of the process and the future use and benefits of WMS, a better understanding of possible future developments in the Eurasian Arctic is needed.
This report presents six socio-economic scenarios for the Eurasian Arctic by 2040, and a brief synopsis of the implications of each scenario for WMS. The scenarios focus on the development of shipping, resource extraction and tourism industries. The scenario futures, called Wild West, Silicon Valley, Exploited Colony, Shangri La, Conflict Zone and Antarctic, describe the scale and scope of activities in the Eurasian Arctic by 2040. The scenarios have three dimensions: open – closed, public - private and dirty – clean, which describe the political, economic, social, technological and environmental aspects of different futures. The scenarios are based on a literature review, pre-survey, expert workshop and restructuring and analysis of this material. The methodology used for scenario construction is described in detail and may be used widely by other scenario developers.
Road traffic safety is the result of a complex interaction of factors, and causes behind road veh... more Road traffic safety is the result of a complex interaction of factors, and causes behind road vehicle crashes require different measures to reduce their impacts. This study assesses how strongly the variation in daily winter crash rates associates with weather conditions in Finland. This is done by illustrating trends and spatiotemporal variation in the crash rates, by showing how a GIS application can evidence the association between temporary rises in regional crash rates and the occurrence of bad weather, and with a regression model on crash rate sensitivity to adverse weather conditions. The analysis indicates that a base rate of crashes depending on non-weather factors exists, and some combinations of extreme weather conditions are able to substantially push up crash rates on days with bad weather. Some spatial causation factors, such as variation of geophysical characteristics causing systematic differences in the distributions of weather variables, exist. Yet, even in winter, non-spatial factors are normally more significant. GIS data can support optimal deployment of rescue services and enhance in-depth quantitative analysis by helping to identify the most appropriate spatial and temporal resolutions. However, the supportive role of GIS should not be inferred as existence of highly significant spatial causation.
About a one-fifth of the Finnish households disposes of a summerhouse, whereas an even larger sha... more About a one-fifth of the Finnish households disposes of a summerhouse, whereas an even larger share has regular access to it, thanks to family or friends. This means that summerhouses represent an important share of the Finnish holiday and leisure budgets, both in terms of money and in terms of time. Furthermore, summerhouses often make up a part of the lifestyle of households. Correspondingly, there are summerhouses which are fitted with many conveniences in order to cater for a luxurious standard of living during holidays. In contrast other summerhouses are supposed to be 'near to nature', which often implies that their standards of living are rather austere. In recent years summerhouses have become a popular theme for social and economic studies. In various countryside municipalities the summerhouse visitors are a major or even the principal source of income for the area. With other sectors retreating, the local economic sustainability depends to an ever larger extent o...
In the FP7 project CRISMA (http://www.crismaproject.eu/) economic indicators for natural hazard r... more In the FP7 project CRISMA (http://www.crismaproject.eu/) economic indicators for natural hazard related to crisis management were proposed (see also Engelbach et al 2014). This paper deals with two of them: insurance coverage and the so-called ‘fiscal gap’ indicators. Fiscal gap (Mechler et al, 2010) refers to high budget deficits, which can cause insufficient ability to mobilize funding for reconstruction, especially when coupled with low insurance coverage. The measurement basis, preliminary results, limitations of interpretation, illustration of use, and some suggestions for improvements of the two indicators are discussed. The indicators merit further development, whereas the statistical monitoring of the underlying data should be improved and get more transparent. The coordinated use of such indicators is illustrated by discussing the role that insurance coverage had in natural hazard preparedness policies in France, with special reference to flood prone areas.
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Papers by Adriaan Perrels
This report presents six socio-economic scenarios for the Eurasian Arctic by 2040, and a brief synopsis of the implications of each scenario for WMS. The scenarios focus on the development of shipping, resource extraction and tourism industries. The scenario futures, called Wild West, Silicon Valley, Exploited Colony, Shangri La, Conflict Zone and Antarctic, describe the scale and scope of activities in the Eurasian Arctic by 2040. The scenarios have three dimensions: open – closed, public - private and dirty – clean, which describe the political, economic, social, technological and environmental aspects of different futures.
The scenarios are based on a literature review, pre-survey, expert workshop and restructuring and analysis of this material. The methodology used for scenario construction is described in detail and may be used widely by other scenario developers.
This report presents six socio-economic scenarios for the Eurasian Arctic by 2040, and a brief synopsis of the implications of each scenario for WMS. The scenarios focus on the development of shipping, resource extraction and tourism industries. The scenario futures, called Wild West, Silicon Valley, Exploited Colony, Shangri La, Conflict Zone and Antarctic, describe the scale and scope of activities in the Eurasian Arctic by 2040. The scenarios have three dimensions: open – closed, public - private and dirty – clean, which describe the political, economic, social, technological and environmental aspects of different futures.
The scenarios are based on a literature review, pre-survey, expert workshop and restructuring and analysis of this material. The methodology used for scenario construction is described in detail and may be used widely by other scenario developers.