Papers by Timothy P. Newfield
Late antique plague has never been more contested. Recent scholarship has repeatedly questioned w... more Late antique plague has never been more contested. Recent scholarship has repeatedly questioned whether the Justinianic plague caused catastrophic mortality and supporters of the traditional narrative of a vast, depopulating sixth-century pandemic have dug in. Scholars have repeatedly assessed evidence thought to prove traditional narratives about the Justinianic plague, but never to everyone's liking. Things have gotten ugly and no resolution is in sight. To advance the debate and shift the focus, these pages review the use of the Black Death in accounts of the Justinianic plague. What follows demonstrates that the claim the sixth-century pandemic killed many millions is founded on centuries of uncritical treatment of late antique sources reinforced in recent generations via the overinterpretation of the first pandemic's plague diagnosis and the neglect of plague's ecological and epidemiological complexities. That the Justinianic plague was another Black Death underpins research agendas and influences the interpretation of data in diverse fields, but it is an unsubstantiated claim, one stemming from deficient interdisciplinarity and neither proven by current evidence nor provable with current methods. Only by strengthening interdisciplinary collaboration, it is proposed in closing, can we begin to remedy our first-pandemic plague problems. KEYWORDS plague, Yersinia pestis, Justinianic plague, disease history, black death, pandemic
Historians of medicine and disease have yet to think through a syndemic lens. This commentary aim... more Historians of medicine and disease have yet to think through a syndemic lens. This commentary aims to point out why they should. Although there are several hurdles to overcome, our histories of disease and our understanding of current syndemics both stand to gain should historians begin to explore episodes of cooccurring diseases that share root causes.
Smallpox, caused by the variola virus (VARV), is prominent in modern histories of the ancient Med... more Smallpox, caused by the variola virus (VARV), is prominent in modern histories of the ancient Mediterranean world. The disease, or the diagnosis of it, has shaped estimations of the scale and significance of epidemics and pandemics, notably the 2nd-c. Antonine plague, and the burden of disease in large cities and regions densely populated in antiquity. Here we synthesize recent paleogenetic and evolutionary biological literature that casts significant doubt on the existence of a VARV that caused a disease we would recognizeclinically, ecologically, or epidemiologicallyas smallpox in antiquity. On the basis of current data, it is time archaeologists and historians began to eradicate smallpox from their histories of the ancient world.
Facing a warming climate, many tropical species-including the arthropod vectors of several infect... more Facing a warming climate, many tropical species-including the arthropod vectors of several infectious diseases-will be displaced to higher latitudes and elevations. These shifts are frequently projected for the future, but rarely documented in the present day. Here, we use one of the most comprehensive datasets ever compiled by medical entomologists to track the observed range limits of African malaria mosquito vectors (Anopheles spp.) from 1898 to 2016. Using a simple regression approach, we estimate that these species' ranges gained an average of 6.5 m of elevation per year, and the southern limits of their ranges moved polewards 4.7 km per year. These shifts would be consistent with the local velocity of recent climate change, and might help explain the incursion of malaria transmission into new areas over the past few decades. Confirming that climate change underlies these shifts, and applying similar methods to other disease vectors, are important directions for future research.
The late antique (ca. mid. 5th century CE) infant and child cemetery at Poggio Gramignano near Lu... more The late antique (ca. mid. 5th century CE) infant and child cemetery at Poggio Gramignano near Lugnano in Teverina (Umbria, Italy) is well-known for its association with malaria. However, less is known about the community members most closely connected to this cemetery space-in particular, the the infants' mothers. This paper more closely explores the health of the 62 individuals who have been recovered from the cemetery to date with the goal of exploring maternal health status at the time of infant death. Skeletal pathologies are reconsidered within the specific context of the placental fetal environment. Using a biocultural framework and analysis of nested environments, we explore the likely corresponding health of these infants' mothers during late pregnancy and breastfeeding, taking into consideration the wider context of social and cultural factors that mediated Roman women's behaviour, status, and access to resources in rural late antique Umbria. We conclude that these factors, combined with disease stress, profoundly shaped the fertility, morbidity, and mortality of this late antique community. In this context, fetal and perinatal health serve as a useful proxy for community health in the absence of adult remains.
The influence that meteorological, climatological and environmental factors had on historical dis... more The influence that meteorological, climatological and environmental factors had on historical disease outbreaks is often speculated upon, but little investigated. Here, we explore potential associations between pandemic disease and climate over the last 2,500 years in Mediterranean history, focusing on ancient disease outbreaks and the Justinianic plague in particular. We underscore variation in the quality, quantity and interpretation of written evidence and proxy information from natural archives, the comlexity of identifying and disentangling past climatological and environmental drivers, and the need to integrate diverse methodologies to discern past climate-disease linkages and leverage historical experiences to prepare for the rapid expansion of novel pathogenic diseases. Although the difficulties entailed in establishing historical climate-pandemic linkages persist to the present, this is a research area as urgent as it is complex and historical perspectives are desperately needed.
Existing mortality estimates assert that the Justinianic Plague (circa 541 to 750 CE) caused tens... more Existing mortality estimates assert that the Justinianic Plague (circa 541 to 750 CE) caused tens of millions of deaths throughout the Mediterranean world and Europe, helping to end antiquity and start the Middle Ages. In this article, we argue that this paradigm does not fit the evidence. We examine a series of independent quantitative and qualitative datasets that are directly or indirectly linked to demographic and economic trends during this two-century period: Written sources, legislation, coinage, papyri, inscriptions, pollen, ancient DNA, and mortuary archaeology. Individually or together, they fail to support the maximalist paradigm: None has a clear independent link to plague outbreaks and none supports maximalist reconstructions of late antique plague. Instead of large-scale, disruptive mortality, when contextualized and examined together, the datasets suggest continuity across the plague period. Although demographic, economic, and political changes continued between the 6th and 8th centuries, the evidence does not support the now commonplace claim that the Justinianic Plague was a primary causal factor of them.
https://www.pnas.org/content/116/51/25546
Recent work has linked historical crises, both regional and local, with palaeoclimatic estimates ... more Recent work has linked historical crises, both regional and local, with palaeoclimatic estimates of global and hemispheric climate change. Such studies tend to underemphasize the spatiotemporal and socioeconomical disparity of human suffering and adaptive capacity as well as the complexities of past climate change. We focus herein on the effects in Scotland of a severely cold climate episode in the 1690s, associated with major tropical volcanic events including a large unidentified tropical eruption in 1695. A tree-ring based summer temperature reconstruction from the northern Cairngorms region identifies the 1690s as the coldest decade in Scotland for the last 750 years. Archival sources meanwhile reveal the 1690s as likely the worst era of crop failure, food shortage, and mortality ever documented in Scottish history. The connection appears simple-volcanic cooling triggered famine-but the drivers towards famine are far more complex. Although the unusual coldness of the 1690s was near-hemispheric in scale, it had a differential impact across northwestern Europe. Within Scotland, both lowlands and highlands experienced dire conditions, but distinct factors exacerbated the suffering in each region. We integrate historical and palaeoclimatic records to explore the influence of the volcanic cold pulse of the 1690s and its consequences in Scotland. We find that while cooling temperatures characterized the regional to larger-scale climate, vulnerability and response potential were diverse and shaped by local circumstances. The Scottish crisis of the 1690s, in the context of the kingdom's failing economy, influenced investors from all parts of society, including the nobility and entire communities, to fund the ill-fated expedition to colonize Darien in modern-day Panama. The climate crisis and the colony's collapse hindered Scotland's already sluggish economy, motivating unification with England soon after.
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Papers by Timothy P. Newfield
https://www.pnas.org/content/116/51/25546
https://www.pnas.org/content/116/51/25546