Plague is an infectious disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis , which, during the fourt... more Plague is an infectious disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis , which, during the fourteenth century, caused the deaths of an estimated 75–200 million people in Europe. Plague epidemics still occur in Africa, Asia and South America. Madagascar is today one of the most endemic countries, reporting nearly one third of the human cases world- wide from 2004 to 2009. The persistence of plague in Madagascar is associated with en- vironmental and climatic conditions. In this paper we present a case study of the spatio- temporal analysis of plague incidence in Madagascar from 1980 to 2007. We study the relationship of plague with temperature and precipitation anomalies, and with elevation. A joint spatio-temporal analysis of the data proves to be computationally intractable. We therefore develop a spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox process model, but then carry out marginal temporal and spatial analyses. We also introduce a spatially discrete approxima- tion for Gaussian processes, whose parameters retain a spatially continuous interpretation. We find evidence of a cumulative effect, over time, of temperature anomalies on plague incidence, and of a very high relative risk of plague occurrence for locations above 800 m in elevation. Our approach provides a useful modeling framework to assess the relation- ship between exposures and plague risk, irrespective of the spatial resolution at which the latter has been recorded.
Background: Plague, a zoonosis caused by Yersinia pestis, is found in Asia, the Americas but main... more Background: Plague, a zoonosis caused by Yersinia pestis, is found in Asia, the Americas but mainly in Africa, with the island of Madagascar reporting almost one third of human cases worldwide. In the highlands of Madagascar, plague is transmitted predominantly by two flea species which coexist on the island, but differ in their distribution. The endemic flea, Synopsyllus fonquerniei, dominates flea communities on rats caught outdoors, while the cosmopolitan flea, Xenopsylla cheopis, is found mostly on rats caught in houses. Additionally S. fonquerniei seems restricted to areas above 800 m. Climatic constraints on the development of the two main vectors of plague could explain the differences in their distribution and the seasonal changes in their abundance. Here we present the first study on effects of temperature and relative humidity on the immature stages of both vector species.
Plague, a zoonosis caused by Yersinia pestis, is still found in Africa, Asia, and the Americas. M... more Plague, a zoonosis caused by Yersinia pestis, is still found in Africa, Asia, and the Americas. Madagascar reports almost one third of the cases worldwide. Y. pestis can be encountered in three very different types of foci: urban, rural, and sylvatic. Flea vector and wild rodent host population dynamics are tightly correlated with modulation of climatic conditions, an association that could be crucial for both the maintenance of foci and human plague epidemics. The black rat Rattus rattus, the main host of Y. pestis in Madagascar, is found to exhibit high resistance to plague in endemic areas, opposing the concept of high mortality rates among rats exposed to the infection. Also, endemic fleas could play an essential role in maintenance of the foci. This review discusses recent advances in the understanding of the role of these factors as well as human behavior in the persistence of plague in Madagascar.
Background: The human landing catch (HLC) is the gold standard method for sampling host-seeking m... more Background: The human landing catch (HLC) is the gold standard method for sampling host-seeking malaria vectors. However, the HLC is ethically questionable because it requires exposure of humans to potentially infectious mosquito bites. Methods: Two exposure-free methods for sampling host-seeking mosquitoes were evaluated using electrocut-ing surfaces as potential replacements for HLC: (1) a previously evaluated, commercially available electrocuting grid (CA-EG) designed for killing flies, and (2) a custom-made mosquito electrocuting trap (MET) designed to kill African malaria vectors. The MET and the CA-EG were evaluated relative to the HLC in a Latin Square experiment conducted in the Kilombero Valley, Tanzania. The sampling consistency of the traps across the night and at varying mosquito densities was investigated. Estimates of the proportion of mosquitoes caught indoors (P i), proportion of human exposure occurring indoors (π i), and proportion of mosquitoes caught when most people are likely to be indoors (P fl) were compared for all traps. Results: Whereas the CA-EG performed poorly (<10 % of catch of HLC), sampling efficiency of the MET for sampling Anopheles funestus s.l. was indistinguishable from HLC indoors and outdoors. For Anopheles gambiae s.l., sampling sensitivity of MET was 20.9 % (95 % CI 10.3–42.2) indoors and 58.5 % (95 % CI 32.2–106.2) outdoors relative to HLC. There was no evidence of density-dependent sampling by the MET or CA-EG. Similar estimates of P i were obtained for An. gambiae s.l. and An. funestus s.l. from all trapping methods. The proportion of mosquitoes caught when people are usually indoors (P fl) was underestimated by the CA-EG and MET for An. gambiae s.l., but similar to the HLC for An. funestus. Estimates of the proportion of human exposure occurring indoors (π i) obtained from the CA-EG and MET were similar to the HLC for An. gambiae s.l., but overestimated for An. funestus. Conclusions: The MET showed promise as an outdoor sampling tool for malaria vectors where it achieved >50 % sampling sensitivity relative to the HLC. The CA-EG had poor sampling sensitivity outdoors and inside. With further modification, the MET could provide an efficient and safer alternative to the HLC for the surveillance of mosquito vectors outdoors.
Background: Understanding mosquito resting behaviour is important for the control of vector-borne... more Background: Understanding mosquito resting behaviour is important for the control of vector-borne diseases, but this remains a challenge because of the paucity of efficient sampling tools. We evaluated two novel sampling methods in the field: the Sticky Resting Box (SRB) and the Resting Bucket trap (RBu) to test their efficiency for sampling malaria vectors resting outdoors and inside houses in rural Tanzania. The performance of RBu and SRB was compared outdoors, while indoors SRB were compared with the Back Pack Aspiration method (BP). Trapping was conducted within 4 villages in the Kilombero Valley, Tanzania over 14 nights. On each night, the performance for collecting Anopheles vectors and Culicinae was compared in 4 households by SRB and RBu outdoors and by SRB or fixed-time Back Pack aspirator in 2 of the 4 focal households indoors. Findings: A total of 619 Anopheles gambiae s.l., 224 Anopheles funestus s.l. and 1737 Culicinae mosquitoes were captured. The mean abundance of An. arabiensis and An. funestus s.l. collected with SRB traps inside and outdoors was significantly lower than with BP or RBu. The SRB however, outperformed BP aspiration for collection of Culicinae indoors.
Background: Plague, a zoonosis caused by Yersinia pestis, is found in Asia and the Americas, but ... more Background: Plague, a zoonosis caused by Yersinia pestis, is found in Asia and the Americas, but predominantly in Africa, with the island of Madagascar reporting almost one third of human cases worldwide. Plague's occurrence is affected by local climate factors which in turn are influenced by large-scale climate phenomena such as the El Niñ o Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The effects of ENSO on regional climate are often enhanced or reduced by a second large-scale climate phenomenon, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). It is known that ENSO and the IOD interact as drivers of disease. Yet the impacts of these phenomena in driving plague dynamics via their effect on regional climate, and specifically contributing to the foci of transmission on Madagascar, are unknown. Here we present the first analysis of the effects of ENSO and IOD on plague in Madagascar.
The housing of animals at night was investigated as a possible means of protecting them from atta... more The housing of animals at night was investigated as a possible means of protecting them from attack by Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae), the vectors of bluetongue. Light-trap catches of Culicoides were compared inside and outside animal housing, in the presence and absence of cattle. A three-replicate, 4 × 4 Latin square design was used at four farms in Bala, north Wales, over 12 nights in May and June 2007, and the experiment repeated in October. In the two studies, respectively, >70 000 and >4500 Culicoides were trapped, of which 93% and 86%, respectively, were of the Culicoides obsoletus group. Across the four farms, in May and June, the presence of cattle increased catches of C. obsoletus by 2.3 times, and outside traps caught 6.5 times more insects than inside traps. Similar patterns were apparent in October, but the difference between inside and outside catches was reduced. Catches were strongly correlated with minimum temperature and maximum wind speed and these two variables explained a large amount of night-to-night variation in catch. Outside catches were reduced, to a greater extent than inside catches, by colder minimum temperatures and higher maximum wind speeds. These conditions occur more frequently in October than in May and June, thereby suppressing outside catches more than inside catches, and reducing the apparent degree of exophily of C. obsoletus in autumn. The results suggest that the risk of animals receiving bites from C. obsoletus is reduced by housing at both times of year and the benefit would be greatest on warm, still nights when outside catches are at their greatest.
Plague is an infectious disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis , which, during the fourt... more Plague is an infectious disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis , which, during the fourteenth century, caused the deaths of an estimated 75–200 million people in Europe. Plague epidemics still occur in Africa, Asia and South America. Madagascar is today one of the most endemic countries, reporting nearly one third of the human cases world- wide from 2004 to 2009. The persistence of plague in Madagascar is associated with en- vironmental and climatic conditions. In this paper we present a case study of the spatio- temporal analysis of plague incidence in Madagascar from 1980 to 2007. We study the relationship of plague with temperature and precipitation anomalies, and with elevation. A joint spatio-temporal analysis of the data proves to be computationally intractable. We therefore develop a spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox process model, but then carry out marginal temporal and spatial analyses. We also introduce a spatially discrete approxima- tion for Gaussian processes, whose parameters retain a spatially continuous interpretation. We find evidence of a cumulative effect, over time, of temperature anomalies on plague incidence, and of a very high relative risk of plague occurrence for locations above 800 m in elevation. Our approach provides a useful modeling framework to assess the relation- ship between exposures and plague risk, irrespective of the spatial resolution at which the latter has been recorded.
Background: Plague, a zoonosis caused by Yersinia pestis, is found in Asia, the Americas but main... more Background: Plague, a zoonosis caused by Yersinia pestis, is found in Asia, the Americas but mainly in Africa, with the island of Madagascar reporting almost one third of human cases worldwide. In the highlands of Madagascar, plague is transmitted predominantly by two flea species which coexist on the island, but differ in their distribution. The endemic flea, Synopsyllus fonquerniei, dominates flea communities on rats caught outdoors, while the cosmopolitan flea, Xenopsylla cheopis, is found mostly on rats caught in houses. Additionally S. fonquerniei seems restricted to areas above 800 m. Climatic constraints on the development of the two main vectors of plague could explain the differences in their distribution and the seasonal changes in their abundance. Here we present the first study on effects of temperature and relative humidity on the immature stages of both vector species.
Plague, a zoonosis caused by Yersinia pestis, is still found in Africa, Asia, and the Americas. M... more Plague, a zoonosis caused by Yersinia pestis, is still found in Africa, Asia, and the Americas. Madagascar reports almost one third of the cases worldwide. Y. pestis can be encountered in three very different types of foci: urban, rural, and sylvatic. Flea vector and wild rodent host population dynamics are tightly correlated with modulation of climatic conditions, an association that could be crucial for both the maintenance of foci and human plague epidemics. The black rat Rattus rattus, the main host of Y. pestis in Madagascar, is found to exhibit high resistance to plague in endemic areas, opposing the concept of high mortality rates among rats exposed to the infection. Also, endemic fleas could play an essential role in maintenance of the foci. This review discusses recent advances in the understanding of the role of these factors as well as human behavior in the persistence of plague in Madagascar.
Background: The human landing catch (HLC) is the gold standard method for sampling host-seeking m... more Background: The human landing catch (HLC) is the gold standard method for sampling host-seeking malaria vectors. However, the HLC is ethically questionable because it requires exposure of humans to potentially infectious mosquito bites. Methods: Two exposure-free methods for sampling host-seeking mosquitoes were evaluated using electrocut-ing surfaces as potential replacements for HLC: (1) a previously evaluated, commercially available electrocuting grid (CA-EG) designed for killing flies, and (2) a custom-made mosquito electrocuting trap (MET) designed to kill African malaria vectors. The MET and the CA-EG were evaluated relative to the HLC in a Latin Square experiment conducted in the Kilombero Valley, Tanzania. The sampling consistency of the traps across the night and at varying mosquito densities was investigated. Estimates of the proportion of mosquitoes caught indoors (P i), proportion of human exposure occurring indoors (π i), and proportion of mosquitoes caught when most people are likely to be indoors (P fl) were compared for all traps. Results: Whereas the CA-EG performed poorly (<10 % of catch of HLC), sampling efficiency of the MET for sampling Anopheles funestus s.l. was indistinguishable from HLC indoors and outdoors. For Anopheles gambiae s.l., sampling sensitivity of MET was 20.9 % (95 % CI 10.3–42.2) indoors and 58.5 % (95 % CI 32.2–106.2) outdoors relative to HLC. There was no evidence of density-dependent sampling by the MET or CA-EG. Similar estimates of P i were obtained for An. gambiae s.l. and An. funestus s.l. from all trapping methods. The proportion of mosquitoes caught when people are usually indoors (P fl) was underestimated by the CA-EG and MET for An. gambiae s.l., but similar to the HLC for An. funestus. Estimates of the proportion of human exposure occurring indoors (π i) obtained from the CA-EG and MET were similar to the HLC for An. gambiae s.l., but overestimated for An. funestus. Conclusions: The MET showed promise as an outdoor sampling tool for malaria vectors where it achieved >50 % sampling sensitivity relative to the HLC. The CA-EG had poor sampling sensitivity outdoors and inside. With further modification, the MET could provide an efficient and safer alternative to the HLC for the surveillance of mosquito vectors outdoors.
Background: Understanding mosquito resting behaviour is important for the control of vector-borne... more Background: Understanding mosquito resting behaviour is important for the control of vector-borne diseases, but this remains a challenge because of the paucity of efficient sampling tools. We evaluated two novel sampling methods in the field: the Sticky Resting Box (SRB) and the Resting Bucket trap (RBu) to test their efficiency for sampling malaria vectors resting outdoors and inside houses in rural Tanzania. The performance of RBu and SRB was compared outdoors, while indoors SRB were compared with the Back Pack Aspiration method (BP). Trapping was conducted within 4 villages in the Kilombero Valley, Tanzania over 14 nights. On each night, the performance for collecting Anopheles vectors and Culicinae was compared in 4 households by SRB and RBu outdoors and by SRB or fixed-time Back Pack aspirator in 2 of the 4 focal households indoors. Findings: A total of 619 Anopheles gambiae s.l., 224 Anopheles funestus s.l. and 1737 Culicinae mosquitoes were captured. The mean abundance of An. arabiensis and An. funestus s.l. collected with SRB traps inside and outdoors was significantly lower than with BP or RBu. The SRB however, outperformed BP aspiration for collection of Culicinae indoors.
Background: Plague, a zoonosis caused by Yersinia pestis, is found in Asia and the Americas, but ... more Background: Plague, a zoonosis caused by Yersinia pestis, is found in Asia and the Americas, but predominantly in Africa, with the island of Madagascar reporting almost one third of human cases worldwide. Plague's occurrence is affected by local climate factors which in turn are influenced by large-scale climate phenomena such as the El Niñ o Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The effects of ENSO on regional climate are often enhanced or reduced by a second large-scale climate phenomenon, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). It is known that ENSO and the IOD interact as drivers of disease. Yet the impacts of these phenomena in driving plague dynamics via their effect on regional climate, and specifically contributing to the foci of transmission on Madagascar, are unknown. Here we present the first analysis of the effects of ENSO and IOD on plague in Madagascar.
The housing of animals at night was investigated as a possible means of protecting them from atta... more The housing of animals at night was investigated as a possible means of protecting them from attack by Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae), the vectors of bluetongue. Light-trap catches of Culicoides were compared inside and outside animal housing, in the presence and absence of cattle. A three-replicate, 4 × 4 Latin square design was used at four farms in Bala, north Wales, over 12 nights in May and June 2007, and the experiment repeated in October. In the two studies, respectively, >70 000 and >4500 Culicoides were trapped, of which 93% and 86%, respectively, were of the Culicoides obsoletus group. Across the four farms, in May and June, the presence of cattle increased catches of C. obsoletus by 2.3 times, and outside traps caught 6.5 times more insects than inside traps. Similar patterns were apparent in October, but the difference between inside and outside catches was reduced. Catches were strongly correlated with minimum temperature and maximum wind speed and these two variables explained a large amount of night-to-night variation in catch. Outside catches were reduced, to a greater extent than inside catches, by colder minimum temperatures and higher maximum wind speeds. These conditions occur more frequently in October than in May and June, thereby suppressing outside catches more than inside catches, and reducing the apparent degree of exophily of C. obsoletus in autumn. The results suggest that the risk of animals receiving bites from C. obsoletus is reduced by housing at both times of year and the benefit would be greatest on warm, still nights when outside catches are at their greatest.
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