Research activity: Money, macroeconomics and exchange rates. More recently, language, trade, and economic history Address: CREST, 15 blvd. Gabriel Peri, Malakoff, France
Somatic distance, or differences in physical appearance, proves to be extremely important in the ... more Somatic distance, or differences in physical appearance, proves to be extremely important in the gravity model of bilateral trade in conformity with results in other areas of economics and outside of it in the social sciences. This is also true quite independently of survey evidence about bilateral trust. These findings are obtained in a sample of the 15 members of the European Economic Association in 1996. Robustness tests also show that somatic distance has a more reliable influence on bilateral trade than the other cultural variables. The article finally discusses the interpretation and the breadth of application of these results.
The primary cause of European Inflation in 1500-1700: Precious metals or population? The English Evidence, 2019
We perform the first econometric test to date of the influences of inflows of precious metals and... more We perform the first econometric test to date of the influences of inflows of precious metals and population growth on the “Great Inflation” in Europe following the discov-ery of the New World. The English evidence strongly supports the near-equivalent im-portance of both influences. For 1500-1700, silver is the only relevant precious metal in the estimates. The study controls for urbanization, government spending, mortality crises and climatic changes. The series for inflows of the precious metals into Europe from America and European mining are newly constructed based on the secondary sources.
The paper takes issue with the mainstream economic analysis of the enormous flow of silver into C... more The paper takes issue with the mainstream economic analysis of the enormous flow of silver into China in 1550–1820. First, I challenge the view that arbitrage between gold and silver in European trade with China was important except for one twenty-year spell. Next, I argue that had China imported gold, its history would have been much the same. I also dispute the idea that the persistence of the silver inflows from 1550 to 1820 implies any persistent disequilibrium, and I maintain that economic theory can easily accommodate the view that the inflow of silver into China sponsored growth in China.
There has never been in the past a language spoken more widely in the world than English is today... more There has never been in the past a language spoken more widely in the world than English is today. How far has English already spread? How much further can we expect it to go? What are the welfare implications? On the first two questions, a popular book by the linguist Crystal (2003) titled “English as a global language” is extremely useful. So are two works by the sociologist Graddol (1997, 2006) that were commissioned by the British Council regarding the future of the English language. As regards the facts, I will try to move beyond these two authors mainly in connection with publishing, foreign trade and language learning. We know from economic research that common languages promote bilateral trade between countries. We also know from many sources, including survey evidence of exporting firms, that trade stimulates language learning. There is recent econometric support. To what extent does the expected growth of world trade in the future imply the further spread of English? To what extent does it instead imply limits to the expected spread of English because of the similar inducement to learn other languages as well? Do other factors besides trade also play an important role? Beyond these questions, the paper will respond to the evident concern today about the welfare impact of the spread of English on native speakers of the other major world languages. One example, of course, is the well-known French support of “l’exception culturelle” [the cultural exception] in the field of trade. It is indeed surprising to what extent English dominates in certain cultural areas, including the song, the film and the best-seller, not necessarily publishing in general. Is there possibly too much English in some areas for the good of mankind?
Pigou has been generally misinterpreted in his reply to Keynes concerning possible "unemployment ... more Pigou has been generally misinterpreted in his reply to Keynes concerning possible "unemployment equilibrium" under flexible money wages. He does not rely on the "wealth effect" (often cited as the "Pigou effect") in this reply. Instead, he depends on a form of "substitution effect," hinging on a change in the "convenience yield" on money relative to the yield on physical capital.
The only visible advance in the theory of the optimum currency area COCA) since Mundell wrote in ... more The only visible advance in the theory of the optimum currency area COCA) since Mundell wrote in 1961 is the proposal of new criteria for determining the optimal size of a currency area. The paper first tries to substantiate this general assessment and then argues that the fault lies in the profession's unwillingness to adopt a formal analysis of the subject divorced from the policy aspects. We could make considerable progress in analysing the OCA by merely following our usual procedure of defining a general welfare function to be compared, if not maximised, under different, well-specified conditions. Furthermore, any move in this direction would take us far beyond the current enumeration of criteria for an OCA.
This paper reexamines earlier estimates of regional redistribution and stabilization through the ... more This paper reexamines earlier estimates of regional redistribution and stabilization through the central government budget in the US, and produces new estimates of this redistribution and stabilization in the US, Canada, France and the UK. The new estimates rest on panel data econometrics and an adherence to certain accounting principles that have occasionally been violated in the past. As a result of the accounting, the peak estimates for the US and Canada in the earlier literature are never attained. Regional stabilization of personal income through the central government budget emerges as close to 20% in the US, France and the UK, but only 10 to 14% in Canada. In case of gross product instead of personal income accounting, regional stabilization is closer to 10% in the US. As regards France and the UK, the use of panel data econometrics proves essential.
How much risk-sharing takes place between regions within countries , between countries internatio... more How much risk-sharing takes place between regions within countries , between countries internationally, and what are the lessons for EMU? We study these questions based on regional data from the U.S., Canada, the UK, and Italy, and national data from an international sample of 23 OECD countries, including all 15 EU members, and do so with the aid of a modified version of a model by Asdrubali, Scrensen, and ¥osha. In conclusion, we find that even though the surrender of monetary policy will reduce the capacity of the members of EMU to smooth shocks via macroeconomic policy, the regime will promote smoothing of shocks via market channels. The project of European Monetary Union (EMU) never ceases to raise questions about the capacity of country members to cope with shocks that hit them independently of the rest, and repeated efforts are made to draw lessons from similar experiences of regions within countries. One particular protection that regions have but the country members of EMU will not have-or only to a negligible extent-has received wide attention: namely, net transfers through the central government. A region with a large central-government budget undergoing an adverse shock may get notable help through public
It is generally assumed that distance in the gravity model strictly reflects frictions impeding b... more It is generally assumed that distance in the gravity model strictly reflects frictions impeding bilateral trade. However, distances North–South could also reflect differences in factor endowment that provide opportunities for profitable trade. This paper investigates the hypothesis that if we control for distance in the ordinary sense, differences North–South promote international trade. The hypothesis receives ample support. Moreover, the significance of differences North–South survives a battery of robustness tests, concerning period, distinctions between differences in latitude North–North, North–South and South–South, and controls for other measures of differences in factor endowment, such as differences in per capita output and differences in average temperature, rainfall, and seasonal range in temperature. The impact of differences North–South on bilateral trade has also been falling. This decline, in turn, might be partly responsible for the weakening of the influence of distance that has been occurring since World War II. This last hypothesis receives confirmation as well. Finally, the paper examines the impact of internal distance and remoteness on trade. Since both variables are country-specific, this is done by studying their impact on the country fixed effects themselves in the earlier estimates. Internal distance turns out to have a far greater impact than remoteness—by an order of 10.
Market forces privilege the translation of English fiction and poetry into other languages, and t... more Market forces privilege the translation of English fiction and poetry into other languages, and thus pose a danger for the accumulation of capital in the form of literature. A variety of source languages in translations makes literary capital more valuable as such. Further, the importance of writing in English in order to reach a world audience lowers the pool of talent capable of contributing to literature. The paper starts with a model of the world publishing market that explains why the dominant language acquires a disproportionate share of translations. Then the reasoning proceeds from theory to the empirical evidence.
While language plays an important role in gravity models, there has been little attention to the ... more While language plays an important role in gravity models, there has been little attention to the channels through which a common language promotes bilateral trade. This work proposes separate series for a common language depending upon whether ease of communication facilitates trade through translation or the ability to communicate directly. In addition, the paper examines the effect of two country-specific linguistic influences on trade: Literacy and linguistic diversity at home. Finally, the paper studies the separate roles of English and network externalities.
The paper is devoted to an econometric analysis of learning foreign languages in all parts of the... more The paper is devoted to an econometric analysis of learning foreign languages in all parts of the world. Our sample covers 193 countries and 13 important languages. Four factors significantly explain learning: world population of speakers of home language, trade with speakers of foreign language, linguistic distance between home and foreign language and literacy. Trade may well deserve more emphasis than the other three factors, not only for its significance, but also because its direction can change faster and by a larger order of magnitude. Controlling for any of the 13 target languages, including English, is of no particular importance.
There have been important advances by archeologists and numismatists in recent decades in the stu... more There have been important advances by archeologists and numismatists in recent decades in the study of the beginnings of coinage in Ionia, Lydia, and Greece before the fifth century B.C. This paper provides a model of the birth of coinage that brings these advances into a broad analysis of the subject-matter. It pulls together many factors that are often treated separately. In addition, the model yields one important new result. Contrary to popular assumption, early coinage was not highly profitable. The Lydian government and the Greek city-states provided an extremely wide array of denominations of coins in a single precious metal at considerable cost. Their willingness to bear this cost must have reflected a political strategy of promoting coinage. Such a political strategy would also be easy to explain. As a large payer and recipient of money in the form of precious metals, the government had much to gain from the spread of coinage in order to economize on transaction costs in its own affairs. . Introduction The origins of coinage around B.C. in Ionia or Lydia never cease to arouse curiosity. A fundamental puzzle is that the coinage consisted of electrum, an uncertain mixture of gold and silver. Yet outside archeology and related sub-disciplines, it is still largely unnoticed that recent advances in the study of early coinage basically resolve the mystery. This makes it a fitting time to propose a general model of the birth of coinage. A model has a number of advantages. Discussions of early coinage often put the emphasis on one aspect or another, such as the ability of government to coerce, or market incentives. A model can do better: it permits fitting all the pieces together without privileging one aspect relative to the rest. In addition, by requiring explicit reasoning, a model can open up new vistas. In the present case, the model casts doubt on one important assumption in the literature: namely, that early coinage was highly profitable. This assumption sits badly with some of the facts, especially the decision of the Lydian government to provide an extremely wide array of denominations of coins in a single precious metal. The Greek city-states that followed in the Lydian footsteps about years later (using silver instead of electrum) did the same. The difficulty is clear: we know from broad historical evidence from other times and places that providing a wide range of denominations in a single metal could only have been possible with the relevant technology at a considerable cost. Indeed, examples of similar government behavior are hard to find before the eighteenth century, if not the nineteenth. Most likely, this behavior of the governments of Lydia and Greece was part of a political strategy of promoting coinage during its infancy. Such a political strategy would also be easy to explain. As a large payer and recipient of money in the form of precious metals, the government had much to gain from the spread of the habit of using coins instead of bullion
This article offers a systematic criticism of the Scholastic usury doctrine from the standpoint o... more This article offers a systematic criticism of the Scholastic usury doctrine from the standpoint of modern economics. There is also an effort to examine the conformity of the Scholastics’ various major arguments against usury with their narrow conception of the usury problem. DEMPSEY and SCHUMPETER's claims of important Scholastic contributions to interest theory receive special attention. With regard to medieval sources, the article relies mainly on the post-1938 writings of NOONAN, DEMPSEY, LE BRAS, and DE ROOVER.
JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, a... more JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org. This content downloaded from 185.41.5.61 on Tue,
[eng] In recent years, governments increasingly resorted to export subsidies. The major motivatio... more [eng] In recent years, governments increasingly resorted to export subsidies. The major motivation for blossoming of this activity seems be macroeconomic rather microeconomic in nature. This finds that a case can be made export subsidies as a mean of reducing the recessionary costs of a disinflationary program by permitting larger appreciation of the rate during the initial phases of program. But the paper also examines the incidence of export across different industries in and to a lesser extent in the Kingdom, and finds this incidence be grossly uneven. A handful industries get the lion's share of benefits, while a large number others are hurt. As a result, macroeconomic consequences of subsidies cannot justify the The distortionary effects on industrial structure are too important. [fre] Dans les années récentes, les gouvernements ont utilisé les subventions aux exportations de façon croissante. La raison essentielle de cette augmentation par rapport à la décennie précédente, semblerait être de nature macro-économique plutôt que microéconomique. Ce papier cherche à justifier les subventions aux exportations en tant que moyen permettant de réduire les effets récessionnistes d'un programme anti-inflationniste. Elles permettent alors d'obtenir un taux de change plus élevé pendant les phases initiales du programme. Les incidences des subventions sur les différentes branches de l'industrie française et, de façon moins approfondie, de l'industrie britannique sont également examinées. Il se trouve que leurs conséquences sont extrêmement inégales, très peu d'industries profitant des subventions, et beaucoup d'autres en supportant les coûts. En conséquence, les effets de distorsion sur les structures industrielles étant très importants, il devient impossible de justifier les subventions aux exportations sur des bases principalement macro-économiques.
Somatic distance, or differences in physical appearance, proves to be extremely important in the ... more Somatic distance, or differences in physical appearance, proves to be extremely important in the gravity model of bilateral trade in conformity with results in other areas of economics and outside of it in the social sciences. This is also true quite independently of survey evidence about bilateral trust. These findings are obtained in a sample of the 15 members of the European Economic Association in 1996. Robustness tests also show that somatic distance has a more reliable influence on bilateral trade than the other cultural variables. The article finally discusses the interpretation and the breadth of application of these results.
The primary cause of European Inflation in 1500-1700: Precious metals or population? The English Evidence, 2019
We perform the first econometric test to date of the influences of inflows of precious metals and... more We perform the first econometric test to date of the influences of inflows of precious metals and population growth on the “Great Inflation” in Europe following the discov-ery of the New World. The English evidence strongly supports the near-equivalent im-portance of both influences. For 1500-1700, silver is the only relevant precious metal in the estimates. The study controls for urbanization, government spending, mortality crises and climatic changes. The series for inflows of the precious metals into Europe from America and European mining are newly constructed based on the secondary sources.
The paper takes issue with the mainstream economic analysis of the enormous flow of silver into C... more The paper takes issue with the mainstream economic analysis of the enormous flow of silver into China in 1550–1820. First, I challenge the view that arbitrage between gold and silver in European trade with China was important except for one twenty-year spell. Next, I argue that had China imported gold, its history would have been much the same. I also dispute the idea that the persistence of the silver inflows from 1550 to 1820 implies any persistent disequilibrium, and I maintain that economic theory can easily accommodate the view that the inflow of silver into China sponsored growth in China.
There has never been in the past a language spoken more widely in the world than English is today... more There has never been in the past a language spoken more widely in the world than English is today. How far has English already spread? How much further can we expect it to go? What are the welfare implications? On the first two questions, a popular book by the linguist Crystal (2003) titled “English as a global language” is extremely useful. So are two works by the sociologist Graddol (1997, 2006) that were commissioned by the British Council regarding the future of the English language. As regards the facts, I will try to move beyond these two authors mainly in connection with publishing, foreign trade and language learning. We know from economic research that common languages promote bilateral trade between countries. We also know from many sources, including survey evidence of exporting firms, that trade stimulates language learning. There is recent econometric support. To what extent does the expected growth of world trade in the future imply the further spread of English? To what extent does it instead imply limits to the expected spread of English because of the similar inducement to learn other languages as well? Do other factors besides trade also play an important role? Beyond these questions, the paper will respond to the evident concern today about the welfare impact of the spread of English on native speakers of the other major world languages. One example, of course, is the well-known French support of “l’exception culturelle” [the cultural exception] in the field of trade. It is indeed surprising to what extent English dominates in certain cultural areas, including the song, the film and the best-seller, not necessarily publishing in general. Is there possibly too much English in some areas for the good of mankind?
Pigou has been generally misinterpreted in his reply to Keynes concerning possible "unemployment ... more Pigou has been generally misinterpreted in his reply to Keynes concerning possible "unemployment equilibrium" under flexible money wages. He does not rely on the "wealth effect" (often cited as the "Pigou effect") in this reply. Instead, he depends on a form of "substitution effect," hinging on a change in the "convenience yield" on money relative to the yield on physical capital.
The only visible advance in the theory of the optimum currency area COCA) since Mundell wrote in ... more The only visible advance in the theory of the optimum currency area COCA) since Mundell wrote in 1961 is the proposal of new criteria for determining the optimal size of a currency area. The paper first tries to substantiate this general assessment and then argues that the fault lies in the profession's unwillingness to adopt a formal analysis of the subject divorced from the policy aspects. We could make considerable progress in analysing the OCA by merely following our usual procedure of defining a general welfare function to be compared, if not maximised, under different, well-specified conditions. Furthermore, any move in this direction would take us far beyond the current enumeration of criteria for an OCA.
This paper reexamines earlier estimates of regional redistribution and stabilization through the ... more This paper reexamines earlier estimates of regional redistribution and stabilization through the central government budget in the US, and produces new estimates of this redistribution and stabilization in the US, Canada, France and the UK. The new estimates rest on panel data econometrics and an adherence to certain accounting principles that have occasionally been violated in the past. As a result of the accounting, the peak estimates for the US and Canada in the earlier literature are never attained. Regional stabilization of personal income through the central government budget emerges as close to 20% in the US, France and the UK, but only 10 to 14% in Canada. In case of gross product instead of personal income accounting, regional stabilization is closer to 10% in the US. As regards France and the UK, the use of panel data econometrics proves essential.
How much risk-sharing takes place between regions within countries , between countries internatio... more How much risk-sharing takes place between regions within countries , between countries internationally, and what are the lessons for EMU? We study these questions based on regional data from the U.S., Canada, the UK, and Italy, and national data from an international sample of 23 OECD countries, including all 15 EU members, and do so with the aid of a modified version of a model by Asdrubali, Scrensen, and ¥osha. In conclusion, we find that even though the surrender of monetary policy will reduce the capacity of the members of EMU to smooth shocks via macroeconomic policy, the regime will promote smoothing of shocks via market channels. The project of European Monetary Union (EMU) never ceases to raise questions about the capacity of country members to cope with shocks that hit them independently of the rest, and repeated efforts are made to draw lessons from similar experiences of regions within countries. One particular protection that regions have but the country members of EMU will not have-or only to a negligible extent-has received wide attention: namely, net transfers through the central government. A region with a large central-government budget undergoing an adverse shock may get notable help through public
It is generally assumed that distance in the gravity model strictly reflects frictions impeding b... more It is generally assumed that distance in the gravity model strictly reflects frictions impeding bilateral trade. However, distances North–South could also reflect differences in factor endowment that provide opportunities for profitable trade. This paper investigates the hypothesis that if we control for distance in the ordinary sense, differences North–South promote international trade. The hypothesis receives ample support. Moreover, the significance of differences North–South survives a battery of robustness tests, concerning period, distinctions between differences in latitude North–North, North–South and South–South, and controls for other measures of differences in factor endowment, such as differences in per capita output and differences in average temperature, rainfall, and seasonal range in temperature. The impact of differences North–South on bilateral trade has also been falling. This decline, in turn, might be partly responsible for the weakening of the influence of distance that has been occurring since World War II. This last hypothesis receives confirmation as well. Finally, the paper examines the impact of internal distance and remoteness on trade. Since both variables are country-specific, this is done by studying their impact on the country fixed effects themselves in the earlier estimates. Internal distance turns out to have a far greater impact than remoteness—by an order of 10.
Market forces privilege the translation of English fiction and poetry into other languages, and t... more Market forces privilege the translation of English fiction and poetry into other languages, and thus pose a danger for the accumulation of capital in the form of literature. A variety of source languages in translations makes literary capital more valuable as such. Further, the importance of writing in English in order to reach a world audience lowers the pool of talent capable of contributing to literature. The paper starts with a model of the world publishing market that explains why the dominant language acquires a disproportionate share of translations. Then the reasoning proceeds from theory to the empirical evidence.
While language plays an important role in gravity models, there has been little attention to the ... more While language plays an important role in gravity models, there has been little attention to the channels through which a common language promotes bilateral trade. This work proposes separate series for a common language depending upon whether ease of communication facilitates trade through translation or the ability to communicate directly. In addition, the paper examines the effect of two country-specific linguistic influences on trade: Literacy and linguistic diversity at home. Finally, the paper studies the separate roles of English and network externalities.
The paper is devoted to an econometric analysis of learning foreign languages in all parts of the... more The paper is devoted to an econometric analysis of learning foreign languages in all parts of the world. Our sample covers 193 countries and 13 important languages. Four factors significantly explain learning: world population of speakers of home language, trade with speakers of foreign language, linguistic distance between home and foreign language and literacy. Trade may well deserve more emphasis than the other three factors, not only for its significance, but also because its direction can change faster and by a larger order of magnitude. Controlling for any of the 13 target languages, including English, is of no particular importance.
There have been important advances by archeologists and numismatists in recent decades in the stu... more There have been important advances by archeologists and numismatists in recent decades in the study of the beginnings of coinage in Ionia, Lydia, and Greece before the fifth century B.C. This paper provides a model of the birth of coinage that brings these advances into a broad analysis of the subject-matter. It pulls together many factors that are often treated separately. In addition, the model yields one important new result. Contrary to popular assumption, early coinage was not highly profitable. The Lydian government and the Greek city-states provided an extremely wide array of denominations of coins in a single precious metal at considerable cost. Their willingness to bear this cost must have reflected a political strategy of promoting coinage. Such a political strategy would also be easy to explain. As a large payer and recipient of money in the form of precious metals, the government had much to gain from the spread of coinage in order to economize on transaction costs in its own affairs. . Introduction The origins of coinage around B.C. in Ionia or Lydia never cease to arouse curiosity. A fundamental puzzle is that the coinage consisted of electrum, an uncertain mixture of gold and silver. Yet outside archeology and related sub-disciplines, it is still largely unnoticed that recent advances in the study of early coinage basically resolve the mystery. This makes it a fitting time to propose a general model of the birth of coinage. A model has a number of advantages. Discussions of early coinage often put the emphasis on one aspect or another, such as the ability of government to coerce, or market incentives. A model can do better: it permits fitting all the pieces together without privileging one aspect relative to the rest. In addition, by requiring explicit reasoning, a model can open up new vistas. In the present case, the model casts doubt on one important assumption in the literature: namely, that early coinage was highly profitable. This assumption sits badly with some of the facts, especially the decision of the Lydian government to provide an extremely wide array of denominations of coins in a single precious metal. The Greek city-states that followed in the Lydian footsteps about years later (using silver instead of electrum) did the same. The difficulty is clear: we know from broad historical evidence from other times and places that providing a wide range of denominations in a single metal could only have been possible with the relevant technology at a considerable cost. Indeed, examples of similar government behavior are hard to find before the eighteenth century, if not the nineteenth. Most likely, this behavior of the governments of Lydia and Greece was part of a political strategy of promoting coinage during its infancy. Such a political strategy would also be easy to explain. As a large payer and recipient of money in the form of precious metals, the government had much to gain from the spread of the habit of using coins instead of bullion
This article offers a systematic criticism of the Scholastic usury doctrine from the standpoint o... more This article offers a systematic criticism of the Scholastic usury doctrine from the standpoint of modern economics. There is also an effort to examine the conformity of the Scholastics’ various major arguments against usury with their narrow conception of the usury problem. DEMPSEY and SCHUMPETER's claims of important Scholastic contributions to interest theory receive special attention. With regard to medieval sources, the article relies mainly on the post-1938 writings of NOONAN, DEMPSEY, LE BRAS, and DE ROOVER.
JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, a... more JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org. This content downloaded from 185.41.5.61 on Tue,
[eng] In recent years, governments increasingly resorted to export subsidies. The major motivatio... more [eng] In recent years, governments increasingly resorted to export subsidies. The major motivation for blossoming of this activity seems be macroeconomic rather microeconomic in nature. This finds that a case can be made export subsidies as a mean of reducing the recessionary costs of a disinflationary program by permitting larger appreciation of the rate during the initial phases of program. But the paper also examines the incidence of export across different industries in and to a lesser extent in the Kingdom, and finds this incidence be grossly uneven. A handful industries get the lion's share of benefits, while a large number others are hurt. As a result, macroeconomic consequences of subsidies cannot justify the The distortionary effects on industrial structure are too important. [fre] Dans les années récentes, les gouvernements ont utilisé les subventions aux exportations de façon croissante. La raison essentielle de cette augmentation par rapport à la décennie précédente, semblerait être de nature macro-économique plutôt que microéconomique. Ce papier cherche à justifier les subventions aux exportations en tant que moyen permettant de réduire les effets récessionnistes d'un programme anti-inflationniste. Elles permettent alors d'obtenir un taux de change plus élevé pendant les phases initiales du programme. Les incidences des subventions sur les différentes branches de l'industrie française et, de façon moins approfondie, de l'industrie britannique sont également examinées. Il se trouve que leurs conséquences sont extrêmement inégales, très peu d'industries profitant des subventions, et beaucoup d'autres en supportant les coûts. En conséquence, les effets de distorsion sur les structures industrielles étant très importants, il devient impossible de justifier les subventions aux exportations sur des bases principalement macro-économiques.
The paper takes issue with the mainstream economic analysis of the enormous flow of silver into C... more The paper takes issue with the mainstream economic analysis of the enormous flow of silver into China in 1550-1820. First, I challenge the view that arbitrage between gold and silver in Europe-an trade with China was important except for one twenty-year spell. Next, I argue that had China imported gold, its history would have been much the same. I also dispute the idea that the persis-tence of the silver inflows from 1550 to 1820 implies any persistent disequilibrium, and I main-tain that economic theory can easily accommodate the view that the inflow of silver into China sponsored growth in China.
The paper takes issue with the mainstream economic analysis of the enormous flow of silver into C... more The paper takes issue with the mainstream economic analysis of the enormous flow of silver into China in 1550-1820. First, I challenge the view that arbitrage between gold and silver in European trade with China was important except for one twenty-year spell. Next, I argue that had China imported gold, its history would have been much the same. I also dispute the idea that the persistence of the silver inflows from 1550 to 1820 implies any persistent disequilibrium, and I maintain that economic theory can easily accommodate the view that the inflow of silver into China sponsored growth in China.
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Papers by Jacques Melitz
DEMPSEY, LE BRAS, and DE ROOVER.
DEMPSEY, LE BRAS, and DE ROOVER.