ABSTRACT This paper investigates the importance of risk ranking in mega projects by fuzzy comprom... more ABSTRACT This paper investigates the importance of risk ranking in mega projects by fuzzy compromise programming methods. To handle the limited resources problem to manage all risks, organizations can assess and prioritize important risks of mega projects. Three well-known decision-making methods, namely TOPSIS, VIKOR, and LINMAP, are employed in a fuzzy environment. One important issue considered in selecting the most appropriate fuzzy decision-making methods is the problem domain and method characteristics. Failing to address these characteristics may result in inappropriate outcomes or decisions. These methods are applied and compared for solving a risk ranking problem in a domain of mega projects. For the comprehensive study, six new aspects are introduced, including accuracy of methods, computational simplicity, large-scale problems, sensitivity to the parameters, discriminative measure, and inconsistency. Furthermore, a new fuzzy VIKOR method is extended in three different ways resulting in three different approaches to help project managers in handling mega project risks. Finally, the proposed fuzzy compromise approach is demonstrated with a real case study in the power industry.
ABSTRACT This paper considers a construction project problem under multiple criteria in a fuzzy e... more ABSTRACT This paper considers a construction project problem under multiple criteria in a fuzzy environment and proposes a new two-phase group decision making (GDM) approach. This approach integrates a modified analytic network process (ANP) and an improved compromise ranking method, known as VIKOR. To take uncertainty and risk into account, a new decision making approach is presented with multiple fuzzy information by a group of experts, and a risk attitude for each expert is incorporated that can be expressed linguistically. First, a modified fuzzy ANP method is introduced to address the problem of dependence as well as feedback among conflicting criteria and to determine their relative importance. Then, a fuzzy VIKOR method is extended to rank potential projects on the basis of their overall performance. An illustrative example from the literature is provided for the construction project problem to demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed approach. The computational results show that the proposed two-phase GDM approach is suitable to cope with imprecision and subjectivity for the complicated decision making problem. Finally, the associated results of the proposed approach with risk attitudes and without risk attitudes are compared with the results reported by Cheng and Li [1], and the merits are highlighted.
International Journal of Production Research, 2014
ABSTRACT In this paper, a fuzzy bi-objective mixed-integer linear programming (FBOMILP) model is ... more ABSTRACT In this paper, a fuzzy bi-objective mixed-integer linear programming (FBOMILP) model is presented. FBOMILP encompasses the minimisation workload imbalance and total tardiness simultaneously as a bi-objective formulation for an unrelated parallel machine scheduling problem. To make the proposed model more practical, sequence-dependent setup times, machine eligibility restrictions and release dates are also considered. Moreover, the inherent uncertainty of processing times, release dates, setup times and due dates are taken into account and modelled by fuzzy numbers. In order to solve the model for small-scale problems, a two-stage fuzzy approach is proposed. Nevertheless, since the problem belongs to the class of NP-hard problems, the proposed model is solved by two meta-heuristic algorithms, namely fuzzy multi-objective particle swarm optimisation (FMOPSO) and fuzzy non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (FNSGA-II) for solving large-scale instances. Subsequently, through setting up various numerical examples, the performances of the two mentioned algorithms are compared. When α = 0.5 (α is a level of risk-taking and when it increases the decision-maker’s risk-taking decreases), FNSGA-II is fairly more effective than FMOPSO and has better performance especially in solving large-sized problems. However, when α rises, it can be stated that FMOPSO moderately becomes more appropriate. Finally, directions for future studies are suggested and conclusion remarks are drawn.
2008 4th IEEE International Conference on Management of Innovation and Technology, 2008
The number, size and complexity of new projects in Iran have created an extra burden on construct... more The number, size and complexity of new projects in Iran have created an extra burden on construction participants and resulted in lots of risks. In this paper, at first we identify the significant risks in construction industry project; then we introduce some effective criteria and attributes is used for risk evaluating in construction industry. Afterwards the problem is defined in
2008 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, 2008
... countries since many years ago and it is considered as one of the development indexes [1]. Th... more ... countries since many years ago and it is considered as one of the development indexes [1]. TheBOT contract is a contract in which the client, which usually is from government sector, assigns a private firm with the credit of executing a project or plan within a certain time. ...
international journal of industrial engineering computations, 2012
ABSTRACT The complexity of large-scale projects has led to numerous risks in their life cycle. Th... more ABSTRACT The complexity of large-scale projects has led to numerous risks in their life cycle. This paper presents a new risk evaluation approach in order to rank the high risks in large-scale projects and improve the performance of these projects. It is based on the fuzzy set theory that is an effective tool to handle uncertainty. It is also based on an extended VIKOR method that is one of the well-known multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods. The proposed decision-making approach integrates knowledge and experience acquired from professional experts, since they perform the risk identification and also the subjective judgments of the performance rating for high risks in terms of conflicting criteria, including probability, impact, quickness of reaction toward risk, event measure quantity and event capability criteria. The most notable difference of the proposed VIKOR method with its traditional version is just the use of fuzzy decision-matrix data to calculate the ranking index without the need to ask the experts. Finally, the proposed approach is illustrated with a real-case study in an Iranian power plant project, and the associated results are compared with two well-known decision-making methods under a fuzzy environment.
The International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology, 2013
ABSTRACT This paper presents a multi-stage decision-making process for multiple attributes analys... more ABSTRACT This paper presents a multi-stage decision-making process for multiple attributes analysis under an interval-valued fuzzy environment. The proposed method does not demand weights of conflicting attributes through the decision-making process under uncertainty. The performance ratings of potential alternatives with respect to selected conflicting attributes are first described by linguistic terms and then are represented as interval-valued triangular fuzzy numbers. Second, an outranking matrix is proposed to denote the frequency with which one potential alternative dominates all the other alternatives according to each selected attribute. Consequently, the outranking matrix is triangularized in order to provide an implicit preordering or provisional order of potential alternatives under uncertainty. Finally, the tentative order of alternatives undergoes different operations of the screening and balancing that requires sequential application of a balancing principle to the advantages–disadvantages table. It hybridizes the conflicting attributes with the pair-wise comparisons of the potential alternatives for the multiple attributes analysis. Furthermore, an application example is used for the decision-making in a selection problem to illustrate the feasibility and applicability of proposed method in an interval-valued fuzzy environment.
(English) 957genotypes of Preliminary, Advanced and Elite Regional Wheat Yield Trail wheats and 8... more (English) 957genotypes of Preliminary, Advanced and Elite Regional Wheat Yield Trail wheats and 8th international Scab Resistance Screening Nurseries were planted in Araghimahalleh (Gorgan) and Gharakhil (Sari) stations in north part of Iran. They were ...
Archives Of Phytopathology And Plant Protection, 2013
ABSTRACT Stripe rust of barley (Hordeum vulgare L.), caused by Puccinia striiformis f. sp. hordei... more ABSTRACT Stripe rust of barley (Hordeum vulgare L.), caused by Puccinia striiformis f. sp. hordei, is a serious problem of barley production in many parts of the world. Monitoring of the pathogen virulence factors and their changes provides basic information for development of an early warning system to breeders and researchers. To monitor the regular virulence changes, trap nurseries comprising of 12 barley differential sets were planted at different parts of Iran in six consecutive years 2007–2012. When the infection and severity under natural infection on susceptible cultivar Afzal as the check was high, then the response of each line was assessed using modified Cobbs scale. Results revealed that no virulence was observed on plants with resistance genes rpsEm1, rpsEm2, rpsHF, Rps4, rpsVa1, rpsVa2 and rpsAst. Therefore, these genes were considered effective genes and can be used to pyramid with those for race-non-specific resistance genes to achieve more durable and highly effective resistance to stripe rust. The plants with the resistance genes rps2, Rps1.b, Rps3 and rpsI5 showed susceptible reaction and virulence was observed on them, thus their resistance genes were considered ineffective.
ABSTRACT Selection of the appropriate plant location requires joint consideration of multiple alt... more ABSTRACT Selection of the appropriate plant location requires joint consideration of multiple alternatives and evaluation criteria because of the system complexity in manufacturing companies. Assessment procedures involve several objectives, and it is often necessary to compromise among possibly conflicting tangible and intangible criteria. Thus, multi-criteria decision making has been found to be a powerful and suitable technique to solve this type of location problem. In this paper, an integrated decision-making methodology is designed that employs the three well-known decision-making techniques, namely Delphi, analytic hierarchical process (AHP), and preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluations (PROMETHEE) in order to make the best use of information available, either implicitly or explicitly. In this respect, the aim of using the modified Delphi is to select the most influential criteria by a few professional experts or decision makers. The AHP is employed to analyze the structure of the plant location selection problem and to obtain weights of the selected criteria. Then, the PROMETHEE technique is taken into account to assess and rank the location alternatives. Finally, an application in a manufacturing company demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.
ABSTRACT This paper considers a construction project problem under multiple criteria in a fuzzy e... more ABSTRACT This paper considers a construction project problem under multiple criteria in a fuzzy environment and proposes a new two-phase group decision making (GDM) approach. This approach integrates a modified analytic network process (ANP) and an improved compromise ranking method, known as VIKOR. To take uncertainty and risk into account, a new decision making approach is presented with multiple fuzzy information by a group of experts, and a risk attitude for each expert is incorporated that can be expressed linguistically. First, a modified fuzzy ANP method is introduced to address the problem of dependence as well as feedback among conflicting criteria and to determine their relative importance. Then, a fuzzy VIKOR method is extended to rank potential projects on the basis of their overall performance. An illustrative example from the literature is provided for the construction project problem to demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed approach. The computational results show that the proposed two-phase GDM approach is suitable to cope with imprecision and subjectivity for the complicated decision making problem. Finally, the associated results of the proposed approach with risk attitudes and without risk attitudes are compared with the results reported by Cheng and Li [1], and the merits are highlighted.
Participation is the basis and a feature of a civil and developed society. Following the Second W... more Participation is the basis and a feature of a civil and developed society. Following the Second World War and Industrial Revolution and with the efforts of people in societies, participation prevailed and involved various groups and classes in different countries. It covered a pivotal group who in fact were in charge of breeding generations and included half of the society.
ABSTRACT Multiple Attributes Decision Making MADM is the process of finding the best candidate an... more ABSTRACT Multiple Attributes Decision Making MADM is the process of finding the best candidate and involves the evaluation and selection among a finite number of potential candidates to solve real-life complex decision problems. In classical MADM methods, the relative importance of the conflicting criteria and performance ratings of candidates are determined precisely. However, in real-world systems related to human resource management, decision making problems are often uncertain or vague, and because of the lack of information, the future state of these systems cannot be known completely. Moreover, if decision makers cannot reach an agreement on the method of defining linguistic variables based on the traditional fuzzy sets, the Interval-Valued Fuzzy Sets IVFSs theory can provide a more accurate and practical modeling. This paper presents an Interval-Valued Fuzzy Preference Selection Index IVF-PSI method aiming at solving complex decision making problems, in which the performance ratings of candidates are described by using the concept of the IVFSs. Finally, the executive procedure of the proposed IVF-PSI method is illustrated by applying it to the expatriate selection process from the viewpoint of human resource managers.
ABSTRACT This paper investigates the importance of risk ranking in mega projects by fuzzy comprom... more ABSTRACT This paper investigates the importance of risk ranking in mega projects by fuzzy compromise programming methods. To handle the limited resources problem to manage all risks, organizations can assess and prioritize important risks of mega projects. Three well-known decision-making methods, namely TOPSIS, VIKOR, and LINMAP, are employed in a fuzzy environment. One important issue considered in selecting the most appropriate fuzzy decision-making methods is the problem domain and method characteristics. Failing to address these characteristics may result in inappropriate outcomes or decisions. These methods are applied and compared for solving a risk ranking problem in a domain of mega projects. For the comprehensive study, six new aspects are introduced, including accuracy of methods, computational simplicity, large-scale problems, sensitivity to the parameters, discriminative measure, and inconsistency. Furthermore, a new fuzzy VIKOR method is extended in three different ways resulting in three different approaches to help project managers in handling mega project risks. Finally, the proposed fuzzy compromise approach is demonstrated with a real case study in the power industry.
ABSTRACT This paper considers a construction project problem under multiple criteria in a fuzzy e... more ABSTRACT This paper considers a construction project problem under multiple criteria in a fuzzy environment and proposes a new two-phase group decision making (GDM) approach. This approach integrates a modified analytic network process (ANP) and an improved compromise ranking method, known as VIKOR. To take uncertainty and risk into account, a new decision making approach is presented with multiple fuzzy information by a group of experts, and a risk attitude for each expert is incorporated that can be expressed linguistically. First, a modified fuzzy ANP method is introduced to address the problem of dependence as well as feedback among conflicting criteria and to determine their relative importance. Then, a fuzzy VIKOR method is extended to rank potential projects on the basis of their overall performance. An illustrative example from the literature is provided for the construction project problem to demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed approach. The computational results show that the proposed two-phase GDM approach is suitable to cope with imprecision and subjectivity for the complicated decision making problem. Finally, the associated results of the proposed approach with risk attitudes and without risk attitudes are compared with the results reported by Cheng and Li [1], and the merits are highlighted.
International Journal of Production Research, 2014
ABSTRACT In this paper, a fuzzy bi-objective mixed-integer linear programming (FBOMILP) model is ... more ABSTRACT In this paper, a fuzzy bi-objective mixed-integer linear programming (FBOMILP) model is presented. FBOMILP encompasses the minimisation workload imbalance and total tardiness simultaneously as a bi-objective formulation for an unrelated parallel machine scheduling problem. To make the proposed model more practical, sequence-dependent setup times, machine eligibility restrictions and release dates are also considered. Moreover, the inherent uncertainty of processing times, release dates, setup times and due dates are taken into account and modelled by fuzzy numbers. In order to solve the model for small-scale problems, a two-stage fuzzy approach is proposed. Nevertheless, since the problem belongs to the class of NP-hard problems, the proposed model is solved by two meta-heuristic algorithms, namely fuzzy multi-objective particle swarm optimisation (FMOPSO) and fuzzy non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (FNSGA-II) for solving large-scale instances. Subsequently, through setting up various numerical examples, the performances of the two mentioned algorithms are compared. When α = 0.5 (α is a level of risk-taking and when it increases the decision-maker’s risk-taking decreases), FNSGA-II is fairly more effective than FMOPSO and has better performance especially in solving large-sized problems. However, when α rises, it can be stated that FMOPSO moderately becomes more appropriate. Finally, directions for future studies are suggested and conclusion remarks are drawn.
2008 4th IEEE International Conference on Management of Innovation and Technology, 2008
The number, size and complexity of new projects in Iran have created an extra burden on construct... more The number, size and complexity of new projects in Iran have created an extra burden on construction participants and resulted in lots of risks. In this paper, at first we identify the significant risks in construction industry project; then we introduce some effective criteria and attributes is used for risk evaluating in construction industry. Afterwards the problem is defined in
2008 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, 2008
... countries since many years ago and it is considered as one of the development indexes [1]. Th... more ... countries since many years ago and it is considered as one of the development indexes [1]. TheBOT contract is a contract in which the client, which usually is from government sector, assigns a private firm with the credit of executing a project or plan within a certain time. ...
international journal of industrial engineering computations, 2012
ABSTRACT The complexity of large-scale projects has led to numerous risks in their life cycle. Th... more ABSTRACT The complexity of large-scale projects has led to numerous risks in their life cycle. This paper presents a new risk evaluation approach in order to rank the high risks in large-scale projects and improve the performance of these projects. It is based on the fuzzy set theory that is an effective tool to handle uncertainty. It is also based on an extended VIKOR method that is one of the well-known multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods. The proposed decision-making approach integrates knowledge and experience acquired from professional experts, since they perform the risk identification and also the subjective judgments of the performance rating for high risks in terms of conflicting criteria, including probability, impact, quickness of reaction toward risk, event measure quantity and event capability criteria. The most notable difference of the proposed VIKOR method with its traditional version is just the use of fuzzy decision-matrix data to calculate the ranking index without the need to ask the experts. Finally, the proposed approach is illustrated with a real-case study in an Iranian power plant project, and the associated results are compared with two well-known decision-making methods under a fuzzy environment.
The International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology, 2013
ABSTRACT This paper presents a multi-stage decision-making process for multiple attributes analys... more ABSTRACT This paper presents a multi-stage decision-making process for multiple attributes analysis under an interval-valued fuzzy environment. The proposed method does not demand weights of conflicting attributes through the decision-making process under uncertainty. The performance ratings of potential alternatives with respect to selected conflicting attributes are first described by linguistic terms and then are represented as interval-valued triangular fuzzy numbers. Second, an outranking matrix is proposed to denote the frequency with which one potential alternative dominates all the other alternatives according to each selected attribute. Consequently, the outranking matrix is triangularized in order to provide an implicit preordering or provisional order of potential alternatives under uncertainty. Finally, the tentative order of alternatives undergoes different operations of the screening and balancing that requires sequential application of a balancing principle to the advantages–disadvantages table. It hybridizes the conflicting attributes with the pair-wise comparisons of the potential alternatives for the multiple attributes analysis. Furthermore, an application example is used for the decision-making in a selection problem to illustrate the feasibility and applicability of proposed method in an interval-valued fuzzy environment.
(English) 957genotypes of Preliminary, Advanced and Elite Regional Wheat Yield Trail wheats and 8... more (English) 957genotypes of Preliminary, Advanced and Elite Regional Wheat Yield Trail wheats and 8th international Scab Resistance Screening Nurseries were planted in Araghimahalleh (Gorgan) and Gharakhil (Sari) stations in north part of Iran. They were ...
Archives Of Phytopathology And Plant Protection, 2013
ABSTRACT Stripe rust of barley (Hordeum vulgare L.), caused by Puccinia striiformis f. sp. hordei... more ABSTRACT Stripe rust of barley (Hordeum vulgare L.), caused by Puccinia striiformis f. sp. hordei, is a serious problem of barley production in many parts of the world. Monitoring of the pathogen virulence factors and their changes provides basic information for development of an early warning system to breeders and researchers. To monitor the regular virulence changes, trap nurseries comprising of 12 barley differential sets were planted at different parts of Iran in six consecutive years 2007–2012. When the infection and severity under natural infection on susceptible cultivar Afzal as the check was high, then the response of each line was assessed using modified Cobbs scale. Results revealed that no virulence was observed on plants with resistance genes rpsEm1, rpsEm2, rpsHF, Rps4, rpsVa1, rpsVa2 and rpsAst. Therefore, these genes were considered effective genes and can be used to pyramid with those for race-non-specific resistance genes to achieve more durable and highly effective resistance to stripe rust. The plants with the resistance genes rps2, Rps1.b, Rps3 and rpsI5 showed susceptible reaction and virulence was observed on them, thus their resistance genes were considered ineffective.
ABSTRACT Selection of the appropriate plant location requires joint consideration of multiple alt... more ABSTRACT Selection of the appropriate plant location requires joint consideration of multiple alternatives and evaluation criteria because of the system complexity in manufacturing companies. Assessment procedures involve several objectives, and it is often necessary to compromise among possibly conflicting tangible and intangible criteria. Thus, multi-criteria decision making has been found to be a powerful and suitable technique to solve this type of location problem. In this paper, an integrated decision-making methodology is designed that employs the three well-known decision-making techniques, namely Delphi, analytic hierarchical process (AHP), and preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluations (PROMETHEE) in order to make the best use of information available, either implicitly or explicitly. In this respect, the aim of using the modified Delphi is to select the most influential criteria by a few professional experts or decision makers. The AHP is employed to analyze the structure of the plant location selection problem and to obtain weights of the selected criteria. Then, the PROMETHEE technique is taken into account to assess and rank the location alternatives. Finally, an application in a manufacturing company demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.
ABSTRACT This paper considers a construction project problem under multiple criteria in a fuzzy e... more ABSTRACT This paper considers a construction project problem under multiple criteria in a fuzzy environment and proposes a new two-phase group decision making (GDM) approach. This approach integrates a modified analytic network process (ANP) and an improved compromise ranking method, known as VIKOR. To take uncertainty and risk into account, a new decision making approach is presented with multiple fuzzy information by a group of experts, and a risk attitude for each expert is incorporated that can be expressed linguistically. First, a modified fuzzy ANP method is introduced to address the problem of dependence as well as feedback among conflicting criteria and to determine their relative importance. Then, a fuzzy VIKOR method is extended to rank potential projects on the basis of their overall performance. An illustrative example from the literature is provided for the construction project problem to demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed approach. The computational results show that the proposed two-phase GDM approach is suitable to cope with imprecision and subjectivity for the complicated decision making problem. Finally, the associated results of the proposed approach with risk attitudes and without risk attitudes are compared with the results reported by Cheng and Li [1], and the merits are highlighted.
Participation is the basis and a feature of a civil and developed society. Following the Second W... more Participation is the basis and a feature of a civil and developed society. Following the Second World War and Industrial Revolution and with the efforts of people in societies, participation prevailed and involved various groups and classes in different countries. It covered a pivotal group who in fact were in charge of breeding generations and included half of the society.
ABSTRACT Multiple Attributes Decision Making MADM is the process of finding the best candidate an... more ABSTRACT Multiple Attributes Decision Making MADM is the process of finding the best candidate and involves the evaluation and selection among a finite number of potential candidates to solve real-life complex decision problems. In classical MADM methods, the relative importance of the conflicting criteria and performance ratings of candidates are determined precisely. However, in real-world systems related to human resource management, decision making problems are often uncertain or vague, and because of the lack of information, the future state of these systems cannot be known completely. Moreover, if decision makers cannot reach an agreement on the method of defining linguistic variables based on the traditional fuzzy sets, the Interval-Valued Fuzzy Sets IVFSs theory can provide a more accurate and practical modeling. This paper presents an Interval-Valued Fuzzy Preference Selection Index IVF-PSI method aiming at solving complex decision making problems, in which the performance ratings of candidates are described by using the concept of the IVFSs. Finally, the executive procedure of the proposed IVF-PSI method is illustrated by applying it to the expatriate selection process from the viewpoint of human resource managers.
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Papers by S. Ebrahimnejad