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Limits to arbitrage and the term structure of bond illiquidity premiums

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  • Schuster, Philipp
  • Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese

Abstract

Theoretical models suggest that the relation of speculators’ capital and market liquidity is highly nonlinear. Changes in capital only marginally affect liquidity when capital is available abundantly, but have a large effect when capital is scarce. In this paper, we confirm this relation within a regime-switching model using three broad measures of German bond market liquidity. We then analyze how the term structure of illiquidity premiums of German agency bonds is related to intermediaries’ capital and foreign flows. Illiquidity premiums are related to both variables only in the stress regime. The effect of intermediaries’ capital is most strongly pronounced at the short end of the term structure. In contrast, flows into and out of the illiquid bond market segment constitute a level effect as they are related to illiquidity premiums of all maturities.

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  • Schuster, Philipp & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese, 2015. "Limits to arbitrage and the term structure of bond illiquidity premiums," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 143-159.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:57:y:2015:i:c:p:143-159
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.10.016
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    2. Sven Klingler & David Lando, 2018. "Safe Haven CDS Premiums," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(5), pages 1856-1895.
    3. Boutabba, Mohamed Amine & Rannou, Yves, 2022. "Investor strategies in the green bond market: The influence of liquidity risks, economic factors and clientele effects," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    4. Mohamed Amine Boutabba & Yves Rannou, 2020. "Investor strategies and Liquidity Premia in the European Green Bond market," Post-Print hal-02544451, HAL.
    5. Markmann, Holger & Zietz, Joachim, 2017. "Determining the effectiveness of the Eurosystem’s Covered Bond Purchase Programs on secondary markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 314-327.
    6. Hattori, Takahiro, 2019. "J-liquidity measure: The term structure of the liquidity premium in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 61-72.
    7. Beetsma, Roel & de Jong, Frank & Giuliodori, Massimo & Widijanto, Daniel, 2017. "Realized (co)variances of eurozone sovereign yields during the crisis: The impact of news and the Securities Markets Programme," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 14-31.
    8. Hattori, Takahiro, 2021. "Noise as a liquidity measure: Evidence from the JGB market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    9. Stefan Fiesel & Marliese Uhrig-Homburg, 2016. "Illiquidity Transmission in a Three-Country Framework: A Conditional Approach," Schmalenbach Business Review, Springer;Schmalenbach-Gesellschaft, vol. 17(3), pages 261-284, December.
    10. Markus Herrmann & Martin Hibbeln, 2023. "Trading and liquidity in the catastrophe bond market," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 90(2), pages 283-328, June.
    11. Dubecq, Simon & Monfort, Alain & Renne, Jean-Paul & Roussellet, Guillaume, 2016. "Credit and liquidity in interbank rates: A quadratic approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 29-46.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bond liquidity; Term structure of illiquidity premiums; Regime-switching; Financial crisis; Slow moving capital; Limits to arbitrage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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