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How Should Policy Responses to the COVID-19 Pandemic Differ in the Developing World?

Author

Listed:
  • Titan Alon

    (University of California San Diego)

  • Minki Kim

    (Boston University)

  • David Lagakos

    (NBER and Boston University)

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has already led to dramatic policy responses in most advanced economies, and in particular sustained lockdowns matched with sizable transfers to much of the workforce. This paper provides a preliminary quantitative analysis of how aggregate policy responses should differ in developing countries. To do so we build an incomplete-markets macroeconomic model with epidemiological dynamics that features several of the main economic and demographic distinctions between advanced and developing economies relevant for the pandemic. We focus in particular on differences in population structure, fiscal capacity, healthcare capacity, the prevalence of “hand-to-mouth†households, and the size of the informal sector. The model predicts that blanket lockdowns are generally less effective in developing countries at reducing the welfare costs of the pandemic, saving fewer lives per unit of lost GDP. Age-specific lockdown policies, on the other hand, may be even more potent in developing countries, saving more lives per unit of lost output than in advanced economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Titan Alon & Minki Kim & David Lagakos, 2020. "How Should Policy Responses to the COVID-19 Pandemic Differ in the Developing World?," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-350, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bos:iedwpr:dp-350
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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