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Projecting the Spread of Covid-19 for Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Jean Roch Donsimoni
  • René Glawion
  • Bodo Plachter
  • Klaus Wälde

Abstract

We model the evolution of the number of individuals that are reported to be sick with Covid-19 in Germany. Our theoretical framework builds on a continuous time Markov chain with four states: healthy without infection, sick, healthy after recovery or after infection but without symptoms and dead. Our quantitative solution matches the number of sick individuals up to the most recent observation and ends with a share of sick individuals following from infection rates and sickness probabilities. We employ this framework to study inter alia the expected peak of the number of sick individuals in a scenario without public regulation of social contacts. We also study the effects of public regulations. For all scenarios we report the expected end of the CoV-2 epidemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean Roch Donsimoni & René Glawion & Bodo Plachter & Klaus Wälde, 2020. "Projecting the Spread of Covid-19 for Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 8183, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8183
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bayer, Christian & Rendall, Alan D. & Wälde, Klaus, 2019. "The invariant distribution of wealth and employment status in a small open economy with precautionary savings," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 17-37.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mitze, Timo & Kosfeld, Reinhold & Rode, Johannes & Wälde, Klaus, 2020. "Face Masks Considerably Reduce COVID-19 Cases in Germany: A Synthetic Control Method Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 13319, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Haghighat, Fatemeh, 2021. "Predicting the trend of indicators related to Covid-19 using the combined MLP-MC model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    3. Busch, Christopher & Ludwig, Alexander & Santaeulàlia-Llopis, Raül, 2020. "Emerging evidence of a silver lining: A ridge walk to avoid an economic catastrophe in Italy and Spain," SAFE White Paper Series 67, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    4. Khairulbahri, Muhamad, 2021. "Lessons learned from three Southeast Asian countries during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 1354-1364.
    5. Klaus Wälde, 2020. "How to remove the testing bias in CoV-2 statistics," Working Papers 2021, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz.
    6. Mitze, Timo & Kosfeld, Reinhold & Rode, Johannes & Wälde, Klaus, 2020. "Face masks considerably reduce COVID-19 cases in Germany," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 124587, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    7. Holger Strulik & Volker Grossmann, 2024. "Beyond Covid: Pandemics and the Economics of Aging and Longevity," CESifo Working Paper Series 11104, CESifo.
    8. Jean Roch Donsimoni & René Glawion & Bodo Plachter & Klaus Wälde, 2020. "Projektion der COVID-19-Epidemie in Deutschland [Projecting the Spread of COVID-19 for Germany]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(4), pages 272-276, April.
    9. Michael Berlemann & Erik Haustein, 2020. "Right and Yet Wrong: A Spatio-Temporal Evaluation of Germany's Covid-19 Containment Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 8446, CESifo.
    10. Yakubenko, Slava, 2021. "Home alone? Effect of weather-induced behaviour on spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    11. Gabler, Janos & Raabe, Tobias & Röhrl, Klara, 2020. "People Meet People: A Microlevel Approach to Predicting the Effect of Policies on the Spread of COVID-19," IZA Discussion Papers 13899, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Ulrich Glogowsky & Emanuel Hansen & Simeon Schächtele, 2020. "How Effective Are Social Distancing Policies? Evidence on the Fight against Covid-19 from Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 8361, CESifo.
    13. Tödter, Karl-Heinz, 2020. "Ein SIRD-Modell zur Infektionsdynamik mit endogener Behandlungskapazität und Lehren für Corona-Statistiken," IMFS Working Paper Series 141, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Corona; Covid-19; SARS-CoV-2; spread of infection; Markov model; Germany; projection.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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