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Selling Dreams: Endogenous Optimism in Lending Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Luc Bridet
  • Peter Schwardmann

Abstract

We propose a simple model of borrower optimism in competitive lending markets with asymmetric information. Borrowers in our model engage in self-deception to arrive at a belief that optimally trades off the anticipatory utility benefits and material costs of optimism. Lenders’ contract design shapes these benefits and costs. The model yields three key results. First, the borrower’s motivated cognition increases her material welfare, regardless of whether or not she ends up being optimistic in equilibrium. Our model thus helps explain why wishful thinking is not driven out of markets. Second, in line with empirical evidence, a low cost of lending and a booming economy lead to optimism and the widespread collateralization of loans. Third, equilibrium collateral requirements may be inefficiently high.

Suggested Citation

  • Luc Bridet & Peter Schwardmann, 2020. "Selling Dreams: Endogenous Optimism in Lending Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 8271, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8271
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    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp8271.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Victor Augias & Daniel M. A. Barreto, 2020. "Persuading a Wishful Thinker," Papers 2011.13846, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    2. De Marco, Filippo & Sauvagnat, Julien & Sette, Enrico, 2021. "Lending to Overconfident Borrowers," CEPR Discussion Papers 15785, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    optimal expectations; motivated cognition; wishful thinking; financial crisis; lending markets; screening;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D86 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Economics of Contract Law
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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