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The GVAR approach and the dominance of the U.S. economy

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  • Alexander Chudik
  • Vanessa Smith

Abstract

This paper extends the recent literature about global macroeconomic modelling by allowing the presence of a globally dominant economy. Our contribution is both theoretical and empirical. From a theoretical standpoint, we follow Chudik and Pesaran (2011 and 2012) to derive the GVAR approach as an approximation to two Infinite-Dimensional VAR (IVAR) models featuring nonstationary variables: one corresponding to the world consisting of several small open economies (benchmark model), and one corresponding to the world featuring a dominant economy (extended model). ; It is established that in the presence of a dominant economy, restrictions implied by the asymptotic analysis of a system without a dominant economy are no longer valid. The theoretical framework is then brought to the data by estimating both versions of the GVAR model featuring 33 countries for the period 1979(Q2)?2003(Q4). We found some support for the extended version of the GVAR model, allowing the US to be the dominant player in the world economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Chudik & Vanessa Smith, 2013. "The GVAR approach and the dominance of the U.S. economy," Globalization Institute Working Papers 136, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:136
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    2. Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Tsionas, Efthymios G. & Minou, Chrysanthi, 2015. "System estimation of GVAR with two dominants and network theory: Evidence for BRICs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 604-616.
    3. Cashin, Paul & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Maziar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2014. "The differential effects of oil demand and supply shocks on the global economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 113-134.
    4. Konstantinos N. Konstantakis & Panayotis G. Michaelides & Livia Chatzieleftheriou & Arsenios‐Georgios N. Prelorentzos, 2022. "Crisis and the Chinese miracle: A network—GVAR model," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 900-921, July.
    5. Harahap, Berry & Bary, Pakasa & Panjaitan, Linda & Satyanugroho, Redianto, 2016. "Spillovers of United States and People’s Republic of China Shocks on Small Open Economies: The Case of Indonesia," ADBI Working Papers 616, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    6. Tsionas, Efthymios G. & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G., 2016. "Bayesian GVAR with k-endogenous dominants & input–output weights: Financial and trade channels in crisis transmission for BRICs," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1-26.
    7. Raymond L. Aor & Afees A. Salisu & Isah J. Okpe, 2021. "A Comparative Assessment of the Global Effects of US Monetary and Fiscal Policy Uncertainty Shocks," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 25(4), pages 89-114, December.
    8. Alexander Chudik, 2014. "Toward a Better Understanding of Macroeconomic Interdependence," Annual Report, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, pages 16-21.
    9. Considine, Jennifer & Galkin, Phillip & Hatipoglu, Emre & Aldayel, Abdullah, 2023. "The effects of a shock to critical minerals prices on the world oil price and inflation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    10. Annari De Waal & Reneé van Eyden, 2016. "The Impact of Economic Shocks in the Rest of the World on South Africa: Evidence from a Global VAR," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(3), pages 557-573, March.
    11. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2015. "Examining asymmetries in the transmission of monetary policy in the euro area: Evidence from a mixed cross-section global VAR model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 195-215.
    12. Marçal, Emerson Fernandes & Zimmermann, Beatrice Aline & Mendonça, Diogo de Prince & Merlin, Giovanni Tondin & Simões, Oscar Rodrigues, 2016. "Assessing global economic activity linkages: an empirical exercise based on global autoregressive regression," Textos para discussão 416, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).

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