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Unauthorized Mexican Workers in the United States: Recent Inflows and Possible Future Scenarios

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Abstract

The U.S. economy has long relied on immigrant workers, many of them unauthorized, yet estimates of the inflow of unauthorized workers and the determinants of that inflow are hard to come by. This paper provides estimates of the number of newly arriving unauthorized workers from Mexico, the principal source of unauthorized immigrants to the United States, and examines how the inflow is related to U.S. and Mexico economic conditions. Our estimates suggest that annual inflows of unauthorized workers averaged about 170,000 during 1996-2014 but were much higher before the economic downturn that began in 2007. Labor market conditions in the U.S. and Mexico play key roles in this migrant flow. The models estimated here predict that annual unauthorized inflows from Mexico will be about 100,000 in the future if recent economic conditions persist, and higher if the U.S. economy booms or the Mexican economy weakens.

Suggested Citation

  • Pia M. Orrenius & Madeline Zavodny, 2017. "Unauthorized Mexican Workers in the United States: Recent Inflows and Possible Future Scenarios," Working Papers 1701, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:1701
    DOI: 10.24149/wp1701
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Antonio Spilimbergo & Gordon H. Hanson, 1999. "Illegal Immigration, Border Enforcement, and Relative Wages: Evidence from Apprehensions at the U.S.-Mexico Border," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1337-1357, December.
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    3. Sarah Bohn & Magnus Lofstrom & Steven Raphael, 2014. "Did the 2007 Legal Arizona Workers Act Reduce the State's Unauthorized Immigrant Population?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(2), pages 258-269, May.
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    7. Borjas, George J., 2017. "The labor supply of undocumented immigrants," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-13.
    8. Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes & Cynthia Bansak, 2014. "Employment Verification Mandates And The Labor Market Outcomes Of Likely Unauthorized And Native Workers," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(3), pages 671-680, July.
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    11. Robert Warren & John Robert Warren, 2013. "Unauthorized Immigration to the United States: Annual Estimates and Components of Change, by State, 1990 to 2010," International Migration Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(2), pages 296-329, June.
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    14. James D. Bachmeier & Jennifer Van Hook & Frank D. Bean, 2014. "Can We Measure Immigrants' Legal Status? Lessons from Two U.S. Surveys," International Migration Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 538-566, June.
    15. Chiquiar Daniel & Salcedo Alejandrina, 2013. "Mexican Migration to the United States: Underlying Economic Factors and Possible Scenarios for Future Flows," Working Papers 2013-20, Banco de México.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unauthorized immigrants; Illegal immigrants; Temporary foreign workers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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