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The Growth-Interest Rate Cycle in the United States and its Consequences for Emerging Markets

Author

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  • Calvo, Guillermo A.
  • Fernández-Arias, Eduardo
  • Talvi, Ernesto
  • Reinhart, Carmen M.

Abstract

At the time of writing there were widespread concerns about the health of the U.S. economy. There is conclusive evidence that the pace of growth has slowed, which has prompted the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates on two occasions (a total of 100 basis points thus far). As usual, when faced with this kind of turning point, analysts and policy makers alike wonder whether the United States will achieve a "soft landing" or whether the downturn is more serious and protracted in the worst scenario, the new weakness could signal the end of the new economy. Furthermore, recent inflation surprises have not been encouraging, as higher-than expected inflation numbers may curtail the Federal Reserve's desire and ability to act counter cyclically.

Suggested Citation

  • Calvo, Guillermo A. & Fernández-Arias, Eduardo & Talvi, Ernesto & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2001. "The Growth-Interest Rate Cycle in the United States and its Consequences for Emerging Markets," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1425, Inter-American Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:idb:brikps:1425
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Sebastian Sosa, 2010. "The Influence of “Big Brothers: ” How Important are Regional Factors for Uruguay?," IMF Working Papers 2010/060, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Cavallo, Eduardo & Daude, Christian, 2011. "Public investment in developing countries: A blessing or a curse?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 65-81, March.
    3. Carmen Reinhart & Guillermo A. Calvo & Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Ernesto Talvi, 2001. "Growth and External Financing in Latin America," Research Department Publications 4277, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    4. Bartkiewicz Piotr, 2018. "The Impact of Quantitative Easing on Emerging Markets – Literature Review," Financial Internet Quarterly (formerly e-Finanse), Sciendo, vol. 14(4), pages 67-76, December.
    5. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Panizza, Ugo & Stein, Ernesto, 2007. "The cyclical nature of North-South FDI flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 104-130, February.
    6. Mr. Sebastian Sosa & Mr. Paul Cashin, 2009. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in the Caribbean: The Role of Climatic and External Shocks," IMF Working Papers 2009/159, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Mr. John C Bluedorn & Rupa Duttagupta & Mr. Jaime Guajardo & Petia Topalova, 2013. "Capital Flows are Fickle: Anytime, Anywhere," IMF Working Papers 2013/183, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Nilufer Ozdemir, 2013. "Effects of Monetary Policy Coordination on Small Open Economies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(3), pages 124-136, May.
    9. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Fernandez Arias, Eduardo & Talvi, Ernesto, 2001. "Growth and External Financing in Latin America," MPRA Paper 9074, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "FDI Flows to Low-Income Countries: Global Drivers and Growth Implications," IMF Working Papers 2010/132, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Nicolas Melissas, 2009. "On Bid Disclosure in OCS Wildcat Auctions," Working Papers 0905, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
    12. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Ugo Panizza & Ernesto H. Stein, 2003. "La naturaleza cíclica de los flujos norte-sur de inversión extranjera directa," Research Department Publications 4318, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    13. Mr. Sebastian Sosa, 2008. "External Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Mexico: How Important are U.S. Factors?," IMF Working Papers 2008/100, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Alicia Garcia Herrero & Daniel Navia Simon, 2004. "Determinants And Impact Of Financial Sector Fdi To Emerging," International Finance 0403001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Daniel Navia Simon, 2006. "Why Banks go to Emerging Countries and What is the Impact for the Home Economy? A Survey," Working Papers 0602, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    16. Sandra Lizarazo & Jose Maria Da-Rocha, 2009. "Money, Credit and Default," Working Papers 0908, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
    17. Elizabeth Bucacos, 2015. "Impact of international monetary policy in Uruguay: a FAVAR approach," Documentos de trabajo 2015003, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    18. Steven Brakman & Gus Garita & Harry Garretsen & Charles van Marrewijk & Charles van Marrewijk, 2008. "Unlocking the Value of Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions," CESifo Working Paper Series 2294, CESifo.
    19. Charles van Marrewijk & Gus Garita, 2008. "Countries of a Feather flock together," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-067/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 19 Sep 2008.
    20. Carlos Rodríguez & Ricardo Bustillo, 2015. "Foreign Direct Investment and the Business Cycle: New Insights after the Great Recession," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(2), pages 136-153.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP-458;

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General

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