Location via proxy:   [ UP ]  
[Report a bug]   [Manage cookies]                
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/33132.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Tax Policy, Investment and Profit Shifting

Author

Listed:
  • Katarzyna A. Bilicka
  • Michael P. Devereux
  • İrem Güçeri

Abstract

Many multinational firms (MNEs) pay low or no corporation tax in high-tax countries because they shift taxable income to tax havens. We incorporate nonconvex costs of profit shifting and unobserved heterogeneity in profit-shifting ability in the MNEs' value maximization problem to study responses of firms to tax policies. We estimate our model using UK corporate tax returns data and quantify: (i) the elasticities of tax base and capital stock with respect to tax rates, (ii) the fixed and variable components of profit-shifting costs for different firm types, and (iii) the government's trade-off between raising tax revenue by reducing profit shifting and attracting investment. Accounting for extensive margin profit-reporting decisions, we reconcile most of the discrepancies between previous micro- and macro-level estimates of tax base elasticities. We test the predictions of the model using a quasi-natural experiment that restricted profit-shifting by Italian MNEs that operated in the UK and evaluate two types of tax policies that can be analyzed using our approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Katarzyna A. Bilicka & Michael P. Devereux & İrem Güçeri, 2024. "Tax Policy, Investment and Profit Shifting," NBER Working Papers 33132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33132
    Note: PE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w33132.pdf
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text is generally limited to series subscribers, however if the top level domain of the client browser is in a developing country or transition economy free access is provided. More information about subscriptions and free access is available at http://www.nber.org/wwphelp.html. Free access is also available to older working papers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bilicka, Katarzyna & Scur, Daniela, 2024. "Organizational capacity and profit shifting," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    2. Antonio Coppola & Matteo Maggiori & Brent Neiman & Jesse Schreger, 2021. "Redrawing the Map of Global Capital Flows: The Role of Cross-Border Financing and Tax Havens," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(3), pages 1499-1556.
    3. Clausing, Kimberly A., 2003. "Tax-motivated transfer pricing and US intrafirm trade prices," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(9-10), pages 2207-2223, September.
    4. Xavier Giroud & Joshua Rauh, 2019. "State Taxation and the Reallocation of Business Activity: Evidence from Establishment-Level Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(3), pages 1262-1316.
    5. Harry Grubert & Rosanne Altshuler, 2013. "Fixing the System: An Analysis of Alternative Proposals for the Reform of International Tax," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 66(3), pages 671-712, September.
    6. Gallant, A. Ronald & Tauchen, George, 1996. "Which Moments to Match?," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 657-681, October.
    7. Egger, Peter & Eggert, Wolfgang & Winner, Hannes, 2010. "Saving taxes through foreign plant ownership," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 99-108, May.
    8. Fatih Guvenen & Raymond J. Mataloni Jr. & Dylan G. Rassier & Kim J. Ruhl, 2022. "Offshore Profit Shifting and Aggregate Measurement: Balance of Payments, Foreign Investment, Productivity, and the Labor Share," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(6), pages 1848-1884, June.
    9. Raj Chetty, 2012. "Bounds on Elasticities With Optimization Frictions: A Synthesis of Micro and Macro Evidence on Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(3), pages 969-1018, May.
    10. Johannesen, Niels, 2022. "The global minimum tax," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    11. Anna Gumpert & James R. Hines Jr. & Monika Schnitzer, 2016. "Multinational Firms and Tax Havens," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(4), pages 713-727, October.
    12. Max Risch, 2024. "Does Taxing Business Owners Affect Employees? Evidence From A Change in the Top Marginal Tax Rate," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(1), pages 637-692.
    13. Dharmapala, Dhammika & Riedel, Nadine, 2013. "Earnings shocks and tax-motivated income-shifting: Evidence from European multinationals," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 95-107.
    14. Giorgia Maffini & Jing Xing & Michael P. Devereux, 2019. "The Impact of Investment Incentives: Evidence from UK Corporation Tax Returns," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 361-389, August.
    15. Dischinger, Matthias & Riedel, Nadine, 2011. "Corporate taxes and the location of intangible assets within multinational firms," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7-8), pages 691-707, August.
    16. Bond, Stephen & Van Reenen, John, 2007. "Microeconometric Models of Investment and Employment," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 65, Elsevier.
    17. Huizinga, Harry & Laeven, Luc & Nicodeme, Gaetan, 2008. "Capital structure and international debt shifting," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 80-118, April.
    18. Michaelides, Alexander & Ng, Serena, 2000. "Estimating the rational expectations model of speculative storage: A Monte Carlo comparison of three simulation estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 231-266, June.
    19. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich & Matthew Smith & Owen Zidar & Eric Zwick, 2024. "Tax Policy and Investment in a Global Economy," Working Papers 328, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    20. Koethenbuerger, Marko & Mardan, Mohammed & Stimmelmayr, Michael, 2019. "Profit shifting and investment effects: The implications of zero-taxable profits," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 96-112.
    21. Janeba, Eckhard & Schjelderup, Guttorm, 2023. "The global minimum tax raises more revenues than you think, or much less," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    22. Amy Finkelstein & Nathaniel Hendren, 2020. "Welfare Analysis Meets Causal Inference," NBER Working Papers 27640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Dhammika Dharmapala, 2014. "What Do We Know about Base Erosion and Profit Shifting? A Review of the Empirical Literature," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 35, pages 421-448, December.
    24. Bustos, Sebastian & Pomeranz, Dina & Suárez Serrato, Juan Carlos & Vila-Belda, José & Zucman, Gabriel, 2022. "The Race Between Tax Enforcement and Tax Planning: Evidence From a Natural Experiment in Chile," CEPR Discussion Papers 17347, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    25. Anca D. Cristea & Daniel X. Nguyen, 2016. "Transfer Pricing by Multinational Firms: New Evidence from Foreign Firm Ownerships," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 170-202, August.
    26. Katarzyna Anna Bilicka, 2019. "Comparing UK Tax Returns of Foreign Multinationals to Matched Domestic Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(8), pages 2921-2953, August.
    27. Michael P. Devereux & Li Liu & Simon Loretz, 2014. "The Elasticity of Corporate Taxable Income: New Evidence from UK Tax Records," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 19-53, May.
    28. Dowd, Tim & Landefeld, Paul & Moore, Anne, 2017. "Profit shifting of U.S. multinationals," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 1-13.
    29. Langenmayr, Dominika & Liu, Li, 2023. "Home or away? Profit shifting with territorial taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    30. Matthias Dischinger & Bodo Knoll & Nadine Riedel, 2014. "There's No Place Like Home: The Profitability Gap between Headquarters and their Foreign Subsidiaries," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 369-395, June.
    31. Slemrod, Joel & Wilson, John D., 2009. "Tax competition with parasitic tax havens," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(11-12), pages 1261-1270, December.
    32. James R. Hines & Eric M. Rice, 1994. "Fiscal Paradise: Foreign Tax Havens and American Business," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(1), pages 149-182.
    33. Desai, Mihir A. & Foley, C. Fritz & Hines, James Jr., 2006. "The demand for tax haven operations," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 513-531, February.
    34. Eric Ohrn, 2018. "The Effect of Corporate Taxation on Investment and Financial Policy: Evidence from the DPAD," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 272-301, May.
    35. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich & Matthew Smith & Owen M. Zidar & Eric Zwick, 2024. "Tax Policy and Investment in a Global Economy," NBER Working Papers 32180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Harry Grubert & Joel Slemrod, 1998. "The Effect Of Taxes On Investment And Income Shifting To Puerto Rico," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 365-373, August.
    37. Nathaniel Hendren & Ben Sprung-Keyser, 2022. "The Case for Using the MVPF in Empirical Welfare Analysis," NBER Working Papers 30029, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Terry S. Moon, 2022. "Capital Gains Taxes and Real Corporate Investment: Evidence from Korea," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(8), pages 2669-2700, August.
    39. Amy Finkelstein & Nathaniel Hendren, 2020. "Welfare Analysis Meets Causal Inference," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 146-167, Fall.
    40. Jost H. Heckemeyer & Michael Overesch, 2017. "Multinationals’ profit response to tax differentials: Effect size and shifting channels," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(4), pages 965-994, November.
    41. Griffith, Rachel & Miller, Helen & O'Connell, Martin, 2014. "Ownership of intellectual property and corporate taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 12-23.
    42. Jost H. Heckemeyer & Michael Overesch, 2017. "Multinationals profit response to tax differentials: Effect size and shifting channels," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 50(4), pages 965-994, November.
    43. Clifford, Sarah, 2019. "Taxing multinationals beyond borders: Financial and locational responses to CFC rules," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 44-71.
    44. Sebastian Dyrda & Guangbin Hong & Joseph B Steinberg, 2022. "A Macroeconomic Perspective on Taxing Multinational Enterprises," Working Papers tecipa-731, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    45. Eric Zwick & James Mahon, 2017. "Tax Policy and Heterogeneous Investment Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(1), pages 217-248, January.
    46. Kimberly A. Clausing, 2016. "The Effect of Profit Shifting on the Corporate Tax Base in the United States and Beyond," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 69(4), pages 905-934, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Katarzyna Bilicka & Michael Devereux & Irem Güçeri, 2023. "Tax-Avoidance Networks and the Push for a “Historic” Global Tax Reform," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(1), pages 57-108.
    2. Cooper, Maggie & Nguyen, Quyen T.K., 2020. "Multinational enterprises and corporate tax planning: A review of literature and suggestions for a future research agenda," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(3).
    3. Sebastian Beer & Ruud de Mooij & Li Liu, 2020. "International Corporate Tax Avoidance: A Review Of The Channels, Magnitudes, And Blind Spots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 660-688, July.
    4. Katarzyna Bilicka & André Seidel, 2020. "Profit shifting and corruption," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(5), pages 1051-1080, October.
    5. Katarzyna Bilicka & Evgeniya Dubinina & Petr Janský, 2022. "Fiscal consequences of corporate tax avoidance," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2022-97, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Dominika Langenmayr & Li Liu, 2020. "Where Does Multinational Profit Go with Territorial Taxation? Evidence from the UK," CESifo Working Paper Series 8047, CESifo.
    7. Overesch Michael, 2016. "Steuervermeidung multinationaler Unternehmen: Die Befunde der empirischen Forschung," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 129-143, July.
    8. Dhammika Dharmapala, 2020. "Do Multinational Firms Use Tax Havens to the Detriment of Other Countries?," CESifo Working Paper Series 8275, CESifo.
    9. Garcia-Bernardo, Javier & Janský, Petr, 2024. "Profit shifting of multinational corporations worldwide," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    10. Fuest, Clemens & Hugger, Felix & Neumeier, Florian, 2022. "Corporate profit shifting and the role of tax havens: Evidence from German country-by-country reporting data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 454-477.
    11. Petr Janský & Miroslav Palanský, 2019. "Estimating the scale of profit shifting and tax revenue losses related to foreign direct investment," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 26(5), pages 1048-1103, October.
    12. Bilicka, Katarzyna & Scur, Daniela, 2024. "Organizational capacity and profit shifting," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    13. Manon François & Vincent Vicard, 2023. "Tax Avoidance and the Complexity of Multinational Enterprises," Working Papers halshs-04103793, HAL.
    14. Langenmayr, Dominika & Liu, Li, 2023. "Home or away? Profit shifting with territorial taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    15. Sabine Schenkelberg, 2020. "The Cadbury Schweppes judgment and its implications on profit shifting activities within Europe," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(1), pages 1-31, February.
    16. Müller, Raphael & Spengel, Christoph & Vay, Heiko, 2020. "On the determinants and effects of corporate tax transparency: Review of an emerging literature," ZEW Discussion Papers 20-063, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    17. Ludvig Wier & Hayley Erasmus, 2023. "The Dominant Role of Large Firms in Profit Shifting," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(3), pages 791-816, September.
    18. Hebous, Shafik & Johannesen, Niels, 2021. "At your service! The role of tax havens in international trade with services," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    19. Riedel Nadine, 2018. "Quantifying International Tax Avoidance: A Review of the Academic Literature," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 69(2), pages 169-181, August.
    20. Dominika Langenmayr & Franz Reiter, 2022. "Trading offshore: evidence on banks’ tax avoidance," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 124(3), pages 797-837, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33132. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.